International seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
comparability of rapid estimates of economic trends
27-29 May 2009, Ottawa, Canada
Short term statistics and
Quarterly National accounts
Timeliness, reliability and accuracy
27 May 2009
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The statistics of short term economic tendencies
evaluation in Morocco come from several horizons
at the national and regional level. They cover the
various aspects of the economic and financial
activities as well as their inter connexions within the
real sector, the fiscal and financial sectors and
finally the foreign sector.
The relevance of statistics for establishing national
economic policies is an undeniable priority for the
Moroccan decision makers. In practice, enhancing
the consequent national statistical system is in
progress and works aiming improvement and
levelling statistics are implemented
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Statistical system of the short term data in Morocco
 Production process of the fast statistics to follow up the
economic situation is articulated around three great types of
information which are complementary one each others in
term of time and functions:
 Statistics of economic tendency
 Business statistics (realisations)
- Investigations sub annual
-administrative records statistics
 Quarterly national accounts
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Business tendency ► purposes
Obtaining an economic tendency information which is not yet
available in a quantified form at the traditional statistics level,
Allowing the public and private economic users to understand
the immediate past, to apprehend the present, to anticipate
the near future and to act consequently.
▼
to materialize those aspects:
The HCP carries out two quarterly surveys of economic
conjuncture. The first one relates to the sectors of industry,
mine and energy. The second concerns the sector of the
construction.
▼
to enhance this process:
Attempts are in progress to set up surveys of economic
conjuncture relating to the sectors of trade and services
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▼
The conclusions of these surveys aim to know tendencies
regarding economic environment, production, demand, use
of the producing capacities, investments, selling prices,
treasury, orders, labour and stocks.
Households expenditures pertaining to economic growth, like
investment and export, so a survey of households tendecies
concerning their appreciations and anticipations on climat
economic is currently carrying out.
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Central Bank realise also, monthly and quarterly, a Business
tendency survey;
Moroccan Centre of the Conjuncture (CMC), as a private
institution, realise equally a quarterly business tendency
survey.
► But sometimes data resulting from these various surveys are
divergent, therefore user become stressed by reliability of
these data especially in the crisis situation.
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Business indicators
The instruments to determine indicators of effective activity rely
on results of the quarterly or monthly surveys data, and the
statistics sub produced by economic institutions (Public
administrations, companies, financial institutions, foreign trade).
In a sectorial configuration, the essential statistics produced are:
Real sector:
Quarterly Index of industrial, mine and energetic production by
activities is prduced according to NACE nomeclature. However,
compilation of monthly index is already tried as needed by SDDS.
however, the arbitration between its periodicity and quality is not
clear since the answer rate decreases significatly.
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

Employment:
The labour market launches signals in case of recession or crisis. In
particular, in urban environment seasonally adjusted quarterly
unemployment rate informs about the activities in difficulties and
makes it possible to detect their origins. Th quarterly national
employment survey povide detailed data on uneployment,
population occupied, jobs newly created by sex, age, education,
socio professional categories, activities, etc.
Prices:
The monthly prices indices of industry, mine and energy productions
like those of the consumer prices , adjusted of seasonal variations,
measure the impact of the effects of the swings of the raw materials
prices like those of the impacts of the expenditure variations.
 Construction:
The building permits form the principal indicators for describing the
sector of construction behavior . They cover the whole of the territory
and the indicators of production are produced monthly. However the
time of their release exceeds three months. The monthly released
housing credits are considered to mesure tendency of this sector.
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External sector:
 Data covers imports and exports of goods and services,
income, current transfers, direct investment, portfolio
investment, other investment, and reserve assets. The shrink of
The travel incomes, those of the Morrocan resident abroad
and the increase in external trade deficit over several
successive quarters were in some extent signals of crisis.
 Financial sector:
The main components the analytical accounts of Bank Al
Maghrib (Central Bank) are the net foreign assets and the
monetary reserve.
 The daily indices MADEX and central MASI of the markets and
that of the blocks make it possible to follow the performance
of companies.
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Fiscal sector
The Table of Treasury Expenditure and Revenue (in millions of
dirhams) covers central government operations and the local
government share of VAT revenue.
The Table records ordinary revenue, ordinary expenditure,
investment expenditure, and the resulting deficit and/or
surplus. It also records deficit financing modalities by source
(domestic or external).
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Statistics
Periodicity
timeliness
Real sector
GDP by industries
Q
3 months
Production index
Q
75 days
Employment
Q
40 days
Unemployment
Q
40 days
Wages/Earnings
Q
90 days
Consumer Price
index
M
20 days
Producer prices
index
M
30 days
Central gov.
operations
M
30 days
Central
government debt
Q
90 days
Fiscal sector
General gov.
operations
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Financial sector
Analytical
accounts CB
M
30 days
Analytical
accounts of
banking sector
M
15 days
Interest rates
D
D
Share price index
D
D
Balance of
payments
Q
90 days
Official reserve
assets
M
7 days
Reserves template
M
30 days
Merchandise trade
M
30 days
International
investment position
Annual
6 months
External debt
Q
90 days
Exchange rate
D
D
External sector
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Towards a system of timely, reliable and accurate
quarterly national accounts
Practically, the compilation of the CNT according to the SCN93 and the basic
year 1998 started actually in 2005. Currently, the approach of production is
applied given the availability of the necessary sub annual indicators, and a
GDP breakdown by industries is obtained. However, in parallel works are
undertaken to extend these accounts to the expenditure components,
income and investment, financial and institutional sectors. This will require
certainly the search for other data and the realization of other quarterly or
monthly light surveys which would provide the adequate indicators.
The economic growth is approximated quarterly at the level of the principal
sectors of economic activities. The overall quarterly GDP constitutes the
aggregative index of economic evolution in the short term. It permits to know
the possible turnings in case of recession or expansion and their rhythm of
evolution.
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However, it always does not reflect the dynamism of the
national economic activity given the frequent and important
fluctuations of agriculture. For this purpose, we prefer divide
the GDP in two components, agriculture and out agriculture, to
determine the tendencies of evolution.
The quarterly accounts in volume are compiled from subannual gross volume indicators which are firstly adjusted
seasonally, then an econometric method is applied to
determine historic an current quarterly figures.
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Special case of the agriculture
 Its contribution in the GDP varies between 13% and 16%.
dependently of the year climatic conditions and thus its high
performance as its low one straightforwardly direct the
evolution of the economic growth in a direction as in the
other. Then, quarterly value added is calculated on the basis
of preliminary annual estimate as well as on a quarterly time
scale based on a quarterly structure of the inputs defined
before by the Division of the quarterly accounts and the
experts of the ministry of agriculture. We allot to each quarter
a harvested production although this latter occurs during one
given quarter. Employment in this sector is provided by the
national labour survey carried out each quarter by statistics
Directorate in both urban and rural areas.
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Dissemination
Morocco adheres to the special standard diffusion data of the
IMF (SDDS) since 2005 and consequently complete the
requirements of this one, in particular in terms of time. A
timetable of diffusion is adopted at the beginning of each year
and published on Internet which stipulates the end of each
quarter like goes back to diffusion. A note of information on
the results of the quarterly accounts is prepared and sent to
the national press and is put at the same time on Internet site
of the High Commission in the Plan.
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Thank you.
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