Global Trends: Global Financial Crisis
Source: UN/DESA
Global Trends: Global Financial Crisis
Global GDP Growth
(Percent, quarter over quarter, annualized)
Source: IMF
Global Trends: FOOD CRISIS
Source: FAO
EARLY WARNING INDICATORS
A. FLASH QUARTERLY GDP (NOWCASTING)
The First Estimate of Overall Economic Activities
 Imputation for the Last Month of the Quarter
 Timeliness 10 Days After end of the Ref. Period

Activity
GDP share
Primary data source / estimation method
Oil and Gas
41%
Refining and
petrochemicals
Manufacturing
Construction
7%
Actual data on quantity produced and the
corresponded prices from Ministry of Oil and Gas
Monthly Financial statement from the producers
Services
Etc.
41%
4%
7%
Turnover estimates, export values/quantities
Production survey, labor statistics, construction
material index
Production Survey
Ministry of Finance, Sectoral Ministries
QUARTERLY FLASH GDP
Flash GDP
40.0%
30.0%
Change (%)
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Q1_09
-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
Q2_09
Q3_09
Q4_09
Q2_10
Q2_10
Q3_10
Q4_10
Q1_11
Q2_11
ACTUAL VS. FLASH GDP
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
Change (%)
10.0%
0.0%
Q1_09
-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%
Q2_09
Q3_09
Q4_09
Q2_10
Q2_10
Q3_10
Q4_10
Q1_11
Q2_11
EARLY WARNING INDICATORS
B. MONTHLY FLASH GDP
o
o
o
Calculated using Production Approach
One Month Timeliness
Utilization of Monthly Short Term Indictors such as:
 Administrative Data
 Price Statistics
 Monthly Survey Results
 Monthly Financial Statements of the Large Enterprises
EARLY WARNING INDICATORS
B. MONTHLY FLASH GDP
Better timeliness
 Less accuracy, but acceptable
 Availability of strong monthly set of information
 Strengthen the Flash Quarterly GDP
 Strengthen the high frequency indicators

Petroleum Value Added
80
70
80.0
Oman Crude Oil Price
60
60.0
50
Nominal GDP
40
30
20
-10
-20
40.0
20.0
Crude Oil Production
10
0
100.0
0.0
Non Petroleum
Value Added
-30
-40
-50
2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
-20.0
-40.0
-60.0
Year on Year Change % (Oil)
Year on Year Change % (GDP)
90
EARLY WARNING INDICATOR
C. COMPOSITE LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Need for quick, broad indicator for overall economic
activity for immediate future
 Extracting signals and producing estimates for a
better understanding of cyclical movements
 This work is currently under construction
 Weighting system will be derived

EARLY WARNING INDICATOR
C. COMPOSITE LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
General
Business confidence index
Number of workers
Total retail sales
Government revenue
Hydrocarbon sector
Hydrocarbon sector
Production
Oil price, Oman crude
monthly average price
Real Estate
Building permits, non-gov.
Hotel (4-5 star) revenue
Construction Sector
Business Confidence Index
20%
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
30%
15%
15%
7.50%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
Financial sector
Money supply, M2
Nominal Interest rate
CPI inflation
MSI stock market index
Foreign Direct Investment
External sector
Total exports
Total imports
30%
10%
5%
5%
5%
5%
12.50%
6.25%
6.25%
CHALLENGES ENCOUNTERED



Rallying for resources
Timeliness, periodicity and availability of high frequency
indicators – historic emphasis annual data
Composite Leading Indicator
 Lack of sufficient indicators
 Methodological improvements in existing data
Thank you