Census under Fire and Politicization Dr. Luay SHABANEH, UNFPA-CTA )

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Iraq Ministry of planning and

Development Cooperation (MoPDC)

United Nations Population

Fund (UNFPA )

Iraq Population and Housing Census (IPHC09)

Census under Fire and Politicization

Dr. Luay SHABANEH, UNFPA-CTA

Census Current Status

Joint COSIT-UNFPA Presentation

Justifications of Census undertaking

Role of UNFPA

Progress

Challenges

Strategy

Lessons learned

In wars and conflict since 30 years

About 26-32 million inhabitant

Fragile political process

Federal government in Baghdad and regional government in KRG

Control on boarder is fragile

800,000 internally displaced

2-3 million externally displaced

Conflict on controlling some areas

ID system fragile, registers not exist

16 Governorates, 15,000 communities

And 320,000 fieldworkers

Strong leadership for COSIT

Ali Baban Minister

MoPDC

High Political support for IPHC09

President of COSIT,

Chairman, COR

Strongly committed team

DoS

Internationally

I

TAB -

I

C

MDoF

Justifications of IPHC

Legally:

THEREFORE…..

The census should have been launched in 2007- each 10 years

Nationally

:

Irrelevance of 1997 census

Internationally

:

Lack of small area statistics for planning

Taking the Risk by International

Organizations is very much

Justified

is

rationally

placed

IPHC09 is a potential peace making tool

Supporting collective effort is much

needed

Nationally Owned by MoPDC

Nationally led by COSIT

Internationally Supported by UNFPA

Operational Financing is mostly national

Financing TA through UNFPA

Budget cut by 40% after crisis

Role of UNFPA

• UNFPA intervention come in line with Iraq’s NDS 2007-2010

• UNDG established ITF & mandated item C-23 to UNFPA

• The national counterpart at the Iraqi side is COSIT

• Development objective: To facilitate availability of data to help seven out of eight goals of MDGs

• Immediate objectives: to increase capacity of COSIT, to plan,

implement, analyze and disseminate census, and to strengthen the capacity of national partners, to monitor, advocate and communicate census results

Role of UNFPA

O1: Capacities are increased to plan and implement high quality and internationally recognised population and housing censuses and other large-scale surveys.

O2: Capacities are enhanced to conduct disaggregated analysis

O3: Capacities of line Ministries to utilize census data is increased

O4: Increased compliance of IPHC09 with international standards

Role of UNFPA

UNFPA was keen to approach this project from capacity building point of view intervention forms

Facilitation for COSIT to reach and conclude the outsourced services and goods

On-job training of Iraqi census team in different fields

Technical backstopping to Iraq team in all census stages

Quality assurance to make sure that outsourced goods and service

Completed

1. June 2008, Council of Ministers Decree to Conduct IPHC

2. October 2008, endorsement by Legislative Council

3. November 3, 2008, presidential decree number (32) of IPHC law number (40) for 2008 published in Official Gazette

4. September 2009 – rescheduling of population counting

Master Plan -

Data collection -

Training Plan -

Security Plan – completed completed completed completed

Data Processing Plan ongoing-80%

Dissemination Plan ongoing-30%

Publicity Campaign – ongoing-50%

Quality control Plan – ongoing -75%

Contingency Plannot completed-30%

Designing Census Tools

Questionnaires-

Manuals-

QC forms-

Classifications-

Testing -

Pilot Census–

Cartography completed completed completed completed completed completed ongoing-70%

Pre-Testing -

Numbering &listing

IT environment completed

Pilot Census– completed

Training of Field Staff ongoing-80% for 1 st stage

98% completed

Re-doing maps

Updating Numbering and Listing

Population counting

Census Politicizing

There is high level of politicizing the census in Iraq.

The direct reason of politicizing comes from the fact that the legislative council (House of Representatives) linked solving a numbering of political problems with the census results. This includes:

1. distribution of wealth (oil revenues)

2. reconciliation conflicting boarders/counties.

Distribution of electoral seats by ethnicity in the mixed counties.

Census Politicizing

Some politicians tried to link the census with elections.

The direct implication appears at three levels:

1. more pressure on COSIT regarding the on census date,

2. more pressure (intervention) on the content of census questionnaires,

3. more quality assurance and anti-fraud measures were requested from COSIT to ensure credibility of the outcomes.

Census Politicizing

The challenges facing COSIT are

1. creating a national consensus on the census date and content

2. launching the census in a freely professional manner.

The risks on the census launching

1. repeated postponement of the fieldwork

2. not endorsing the census results

3. undermine the whole statistical system as a result of more politicizing due to political intervention and allowing non statistical actors to intervene.

Locality Affiliation

For some communities

Population displacement over tim e

Boarder

conflict

Violent opposition

Challenge

Strategy to Deal with Challenges

Strategies

1. Fragile Security Situation •

CB-Remote transfer of know-how

S-S technical cooperation

Gradual safe landing: step by step

Move ahead cautiously

2. Potential fraud counting, processing (double counting, out-scope, inclusion, miscoding, etc)

3. Census endorsement

• Finger print

• Curfew system

• Mixed Teams

• CIMoC

ITAB-IC

CIMoC

Involvement of civil society

Fragility is not exception any more

Census could be peacemaking tool

Communication strategy is key

International support is very important

Investment in training is a wise strategy

Argumentation with political level is important

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

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