Data Template and analytical indicators
Workshop on Short-term economic
indicators
8 October 2014, Hangzhou China
Ilaria DiMatteo, UNSD
1
Outline

Refresher on the Work programme
–
–
–

Data template
–
–

Objective
Deliverables
Working group
Background
Structure and content
Handbook on Data template and metadata for
short-term statistics
–
–
Content
Preparation process
2
Work programme

Objective of work programme:
–
To establish an internationally accepted data and
metadata template for short-term economic
indicators for the purpose of macroeconomic
surveillance, early warning of economic and
financial vulnerabilities and detection of turning
points in business cycles
3
Work programme
Working group:
–
–
–
–
UNSD (lead institution)
Eurostat
Brazil NSO
India NSO
Deliverables:
1. An internationally accepted data template together
with corresponding reference metadata
2. A statistical guide for the internationally accepted
data template and metadata structure
3. An updated knowledge base on economic statistics
4
Data Template

It consists of an internationally agreed list of
indicators and metadata for short term
economic indicators for use:
–
–
–
In macroeconomic surveillance
For early warning of economic and financial
vulnerabilities
For detection of turning points in business cycles
5
Data template - Background

It is the result of a consultation process with experts and
countries on the availability, periodicity, timeliness and
dissemination of short-term statistics

A Global Assessment was undertaken by UNSD in 2009
to gain insight in the availability of short-term statistics in
countries and their data dimensions in terms of
periodicity, timeliness and dissemination

All UN Member States were invited to participate in the
assessment

It was discussed at the UN Statistical Commission
6
Data template - Structure
Indicators are organized in 12 categories:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
National accounts
Production and turnover
Price indicators
Labour market indicators
Macroeconomic growth and stability
External sector indicators
Financial sector indicators
General government sector indicators
Household sector indicators
Non-financial corporations sector indicators
Financial market indicators
Real estate market indicators
Sectoral vulnerabilities
and developments
Market conditions
Tendency indicators
Composite Business Cycle indicators
Economic sentiment
7
Data template – Structure (2)
Indicators are organized in 3 Tiers:
–
Tier 1 consists of the minimum required shortterm economic indicators that have strategic
importance and are widely available
–
Tier 2 consists of analytically important short-term
indicators that are less widely available
–
Tier 3 contains short-term indicators that have
national significance, given the structure of the
economy
8
Data template – Structure (3)

Each indicator presents a
recommended/encouraged periodicity:
Quarterly
Monthly
9
Set 1: National Accounts
Indicator description
Set 1: National accounts
Quarterly national accounts: Flash
1.1
GDP estimate
Quarterly national accounts: GDP
1.2
full release
1.2.1
by expenditure
1.2.2
by production
1.2.3
by income
1.3
Quarterly sector accounts
Tier
Periodicity
Tier 1
Quarterly
Tier 1
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
10
Set 2: Production and turnover
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
Set 2: Production and turnover
Production index for industry, by major division (mining,
manufacturing, electricity, water, etc.)
Production index for construction
Turnover index for retail trade by major division
Turnover index for industry by major division
Turnover index for other services by major division
(excluding financial services and non-commercial
services)
New orders index for industry by major ISIC division
(for those that work on order)
New orders index for construction (building permits or
housing starts)
Commodity production as relevant and other indicators
of economic activity
Agricultural products
Minerals
New car registrations/sales
New commercial vehicle registrations/sales
Tourist arrivals
Tier 1 Monthly
Tier 2 Monthly
Tier 2 Monthly
Tier 2 Monthly
Tier 2 Monthly
Tier 3 Monthly
Tier 2 Monthly
Tier 3 Monthly
11
Set 3: Price indicators
Set 4 :Labour market
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
Set 3: Prices
Consumer price index
Producer price index
Import price index
Export price index
Set 4: Labour market
Unemployment
Unemployment rate
Employment total and by economic
activity
Hourly wage rate
Hours of work
Tier 1
Tier 1
Tier 1
Tier 1
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Tier 1
Tier 1
Quarterly
Quarterly
Tier 1
Quarterly
Tier 2
Tier 2
Quarterly
Quarterly
12
Set 5: External sector indicators
Set 6: Financial sector indicators
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.8
6.9
6.10
Set 5: External sector
Exports and imports (of goods and services)
International investment position (IIP), specify balances and
components
Official reserve assets
External debt (by sector, maturity and foreign currency)
Set 6: Financial sector
Central Bank net foreign assets
Central Bank domestic lending
Central Bank reserve money
Depository corporations net foreign assets
Depository corporations domestic lending
Depository corporations broad money liabilities
Other financial corporations balance sheet, assets and liabilities by
sector.
Financial corporate profits
Financial corporate debt
Others as relevant: nonperforming loans of depository corporations,
capital adequacy ratios, other financial stability indicators, etc.
Tier 1
Tier 2
Monthly
Quarterly
Tier 1
Tier 1
Monthly
Quarterly
Tier 1
Tier 1
Tier 1
Tier 1
Tier 1
Tier 1
Tier 2
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 3
Quarterly
Monthly
Monthly
13
Set 7: General government sector indicators
Set 8: Household sector indicators
7.1
7.2
7.3
Set 7: General government sector
Revenue
Expense
Net operating balance (= Revenue –
Expense)
Tier 1
Tier 1
Monthly
Monthly
Tier 1
Monthly
7.4
Net acquisition of non-financial assets
Tier 2
Quarterly
7.5
Expenditure
Net lending/net borrowing (= Revenue Expenditure)
Gross debt
Set 8: Household sector
Household disposable income
Household saving
Household debt
Other as relevant: debt service and
principal payments, and defaults on
home mortgages, credit card debt and
car loans etc.
Tier 2
Quarterly
Tier 2
Quarterly
Tier 2
Quarterly
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
7.6
7.7
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
14
Set 9: Non-financial corp. sector indicators
Set 10: Financial market indicators
Set 9: Non-financial corporations sector
9.1
9.2
9.3
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.4
10.5
Non-financial corporate profits
Non-financial corporate debt
Other as relevant: net foreign exchange
exposure, and the number of applications
for protections from creditors, etc.
Set 10: Financial market
Interest rates, as relevant short and long
term money and bond market rates
Exchange rates, as relevant spot and
forward markets
Nominal and real effective exchange rate
Stock market indicators
Others as relevant: spreads between
lending and deposit rates, highest-lowest
interbank rate; etc.
Tier 3
Tier 3
Quarterly
Quarterly
Tier 1
Monthly
Tier 1
Monthly
Tier 1
Tier 1
Monthly
Monthly
15
Set 11: Real estate market indicators
Set 12: Economic sentiment
Set 11: Real estate market
11.1 Residential property price index
11.2 New house sales
11.3 Existing house sales
Set 12: Economic sentiment
12.1 Consumer confidence
12.2 Business confidence
12.3 Composite Business Cycle Indicators
12.3.1
Leading Indicator
12.3.2
Coincident Indicator
12.3.3
Lagging Indicator
Tier 2 Quarterly
Tier 3 Monthly
Tier 3 Monthly
Tier 2 Monthly
Tier 2 Monthly
Tier 3 Monthly
Tier 3 Monthly
Tier 3 Monthly
16
Handbook on Data Template and
metadata for short-term statistics

Objectives:
–
–
To provide methodological guidance on the
calculation of the indicators and their use
To describe the statistical and analytical properties
of short-term economic indicators



why they are relevant in explaining economic activity
how they relate to an integrated set of short-term
economic statistics of quarterly national accounts and
component data.
Target audience:
–
both compilers and users of the indicators
17
Outline of the Handbook
Chapter 1: Data template for short-term statistics
Chapter 2: Availability of statistical standards and
compilation guidance
Chapter 3: Metadata structure for the data template
Chapter 4: Analytical Indicators
Chapter 5: National data hubs for short-term
statistics
Chapter 6: Strategy for establishing a short-term
indicators data set
18
Chapter 1: Data template for short-term
statistics

Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Chapter 6


Presents the data template
Describes scope and coverage, and the
analytical and statistical framework
Relates the data template with other
frameworks for short-term statistics:
–
–
–
Principal European economic indicators
Principal global indicators
UN ESCAP’s core set of economic statistics
19
Chapter 2: Availability of statistical
standards and compilation guidance

Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Chapter 6


Provides overview of statistical standards
and compilation guidance
Describes data sources and collection
methods
Repositories
–
–
Knowledge Base on Economic Statistics
(http://unstats.un.org/unsd/EconStatKB/Knowle
dgebase.aspx)
Global Inventory on Statistical Standards
(http://unstats.un.org/unsd/iiss/MainPage.ashx)
20
Chapter 3: Metadata structure for the
data template

Provides overview of metadata
–
Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Chapter 6

Explains need for statistical metadata
–
–

–
–
Data documentation initiative
GDDS/SDDS/SDDS Plus
Statistical data and metadata exchange (SDMX)
Suggests metadata applicable to short-term statistics
–
–

Ensure transparency about the indicators which are disseminated
Ensure harmonization in the content and structure of statistical
data to be exchanged
Provides overview of statistical metadata standards
–

Descriptive data about object
Need to be short and general to be valid for all countries
Based on SDMX to support data exchange
Provides examples of metadata structure
21
Chapter 4: Analytical Indicators

Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Chapter 6

Explores in more detail additional
analytical indicators that can be derived
from the indicators in the data template for
further analysis
Presents and describes 3 groups of
analytical indicators:
–
–
–
Growth rate indicators
Ratio indicators
Share indicators
22
Chapter 5: National Data Hubs

Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Chapter 6

Explains the importance of a national data hub to
centralize short-term statistics that follow
international statistical standards, possibly
produced by various institutions in a country, and
to make them available at a single access point
Describes desired characteristics of data hubs
and steps to be considered for their setup
–
–
–
–
–

Definition of scope
Timeliness and periodicity of data
Metadata
Data collection and dissemination
Maintenance
Provides examples from countries
23
Examples of benefits for National data hubs:
–
–
–
–
Improve access to core set of indicators
Promote the harmonization of dissemination
processes among institutions
Foster the harmonization of concepts, definitions
and statistical classifications among institutions in
the country
Can serve as an opportunity to streamline and
coordinate statistical activities reducing duplication
of work
24
Country examples: KOrean Statistical
Information Service (KOSIS)
Source: http://kosis.kr/eng/
25
Country example: Data portal of the
United Arab Emirates
Source: National Bureau of Statistics UAE, at: http://dataportal.nbs.gov.ae/en
26
Statistics Netherlands – Business
Cycle Tracer

It traces the cyclical nature of economic
developments.
–


Based on carefully selected 15 short term indicators
Clear patterns can be viewed in the relative
movements of the indicators
–

Periods of high growth alternate with periods of slow or
growth or even decline
Sentiment indicators (e.g. consumer and producer
confidence) are the leading indicators in the cluster, while
labour market indicators (e.g. unemployment and labour
volume) lag somewhat.
Business Cycle Tracer
Source: Statistics Netherlands, at http://www.cbs.nl/
27
Statistics Netherlands – Business
Cycle Dashboard


The dashboard
shows the graph of
cycle for each
indicator of the
Business Cycle
Tracer
Each graph is given
a colour,
corresponding to the
business cycle phase
of the component
indicator
Source: Statistics Netherlands, at http://www.cbs.nl/
28
Chapter 6: Strategy for establishing a
short-term indicators data set
Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Chapter 6

Draws upon the elements of the
implementation programme for the 2008 SNA
and supporting statistics

Provides strategies for establishing data
template which are based on the principles of
–
–
–

Strategic planning
Coordination, monitoring and reporting
Improving statistical systems
Presents a Self-Assessment questionnaire to
identify strengths and weaknesses in this area
29

Given the close relationship between the
indicators in the data template and the
statistics to be produced in the 2008 SNA
framework, it is recommended that the
strategy and action plan be incorporated into
the national programme for implementing the
2008 SNA and supporting statistics
30
Self-assessment questionnaire

To assist countries in taking stock of the
current situation with regard the short term
indicators of the Data Template

To form the basis for an action plan to
improve the availability, quality and
timeliness of the short-term statistics
Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Chapter 6
31
Self-assessment questionnaire

Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Chapter 6

Based on taxonomy of the Conference of
European Statisticians Classification of
International Statistical Activities
For each indicator in the data template,
questions cover:
–
–
–
–
Dissemination and communication
Metadata and data reporting
Surveys and administrative sources
Technical cooperation and capacity building
32
Preparation process


Draft chapters are currently being prepared
Consolidated draft of handbook is expected
to be circulated for global review in 4th
quarter of 2014
If you wish to be included in global review or
have any other questions, please email
sna@un.org
33
Thank you!
34