Census Evaluation in
Kenya
By
M.G. Obudho & J. K. Bore
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics
1
History of Census in Kenya
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7 censuses including the 1948 and 1962
Post Independence Censuses:
1969, 1979,1989,1999 & 2009
Census Night maintained as 24/25th
August
Success of consistencies attributed to
Gvt commitment and funding
2
History of Census Evaluation
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First PES attempt was after 1989
Census, but was not implemented
Second attempt was made in 2000, after
1999 census
The 2000 PES was conducted but was
not conclusively finalized
The next PES is scheduled for
November 2009 to evaluate the August,
2009 Census
3
Kenya 2000 PES
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Main objectives were to evaluate the
coverage and error rates for 1999 Kenya
Population and Housing census
Covered 7 out the 8 provinces in Kenya.
North Eastern Province (2% of Kenyan
pop) was not covered due to nomadic
nature)
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Design for 2000 PES
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Domains of estimation: National, Urban,Rural
and 7 provinces
A single stage stratified cluster sample design
Stratification by province and urban/rural
Used the EAs as PSUs from the cartographic
mapping done prior to the 1999 Census
All households within the sampled EA were
covered
Sample size of 500 EAs out of the 62,000 EAs
realized
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Sample distribution for 2000 PES
Serial
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Province
Nairobi
Central
Coast
Eastern
Nyanza
Rift Valley
Western
Total
Sample EAs
60
78
50
80
80
94
58
500
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Personnel for 2000 PES
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The Central Bureau of Statistics, CBS
(presently Kenya National Bureau of
Statistics, KNBS) conducted the exercise
The technical officers from the Bureau
HQs who were key in census managed
PES
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Personnel for 2000 PES cont….
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Supervisors were chosen from those
who worked well in census
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Enumerators were picked from those
who excelled in census & new ones
8
RESULTS OF 2000 PES
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Though not fully concluded, the results
were still used to adjust the census
results
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Vital lessons were learnt from it to inform
future similar exercises
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Challenges in 2000 PES
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Lack of independence for PES and census
personnel
Lack of full integration of PES and census in
terms of planning and funding
Lack of technical capacity at the Bureau to
handle the PES
PES was done six months after census
which led to low match rate & memory recall
Manual matching was used and was very
tedious and slow
10
Plan for the 2009 PES
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The next PES is scheduled for
November 2009 to evaluate 2009
census
Pilot PES will be conducted a month
prior to PES
Capture by scanning the names of
census respondents in the PES sampled
EAs
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Objectives of 2009 PES
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Quantitatively evaluate accuracy of the census in terms of
coverage and content error at the national, urban/rural
and provincial levels.
Provide, if necessary, concrete statistical basis for
adjustment of the census data
Act as a basis to provide and document lessons learnt for
improving and implementing future censuses and surveys.
Provide information on erroneous enumeration and
omissions during census enumeration
Enable KNBS staff to gain experience and enhance skills
in census evaluation
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The proposed Design for 2009
PES
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Sample size was calculated based on:
- achieving a CV of 5% at province level
- a census omission rate of 5%
- a 10% adjustment for non-response
13
Design 2009 PES cont…….
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Cover all the country’s 8 provinces
A stratified single stage cluster sampling
design
Stratification by provinces
Sampling of EAs by PPS from about
96,000 EAs realized in 2009 census
A total of 298 EAs are targeted
An equal allocation to all provinces made
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Design 2009 PES cont…….
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On the design, two other options are
being explored
In those options we may oversample the
ASAL areas
Availability of funds will be the main
determining factor for implementing any
of these two other options
15
Sample distribution for 2009 PES
SRN
Province
Sample
(Pop)
Pop per
Hh
Sampling
Rate
(Hhlds)
Sample
EAs
1
Nairobi
16,720
3.3
0.51
51
2
Central
16,720
4.0
0.35
42
3
Coast
16,720
4.7
0.49
36
4
Eastern
16,720
4.8
0.27
35
5
North Eastern
16,720
6.5
1.20
26
6
Nyanza
16,720
4.5
0.29
37
7
Rift Valley
16,720
4.7
0.17
36
8
Western
16,720
4.8
0.36
35
Total
133,760
4.5
0.31
298
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Matching
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Computer matching and supplemented
with the manual one will be employed
Working closely with the US Census
Bureau to identify the computer program
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Concerns
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If PES results suggests call for adjusting
census figures downwards for a region, how do
you deal with the wrath of the politicians from
the affected areas?
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If the PES results are not correct then any
action to adjust census figures is dangerous;
how do we safeguard against getting
misleading results?
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Ahsante Sana!
Thank You!
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