1. The problem of water in the
Middle East and North Africa
(MENA)
MENA is most water-scarce
region, and demand is growing
500
Aus/NZ
LAC
400
Population (millions)
N-America
ECA
SSA
EAP
W-Europe
SAR
Total MENA (excl.
Iran)
300
Total Urban MENA
(excl. Iran)
200
Total Rural MENA
(excl. Iran)
100
MENA
0
5
10
15
20
1000 m^3 / year
25
30
35
0
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
Available renewable water resources have fallen from 4,000 m3 per person
per year in 1950 to 1,000 today and will fall to 550 by 2050
Important to recognize the region’s progress -technical & institutional innovations
• Major investment in infrastructure
– Water storage
– Huge expansion of services – 80% WSS coverage
projected to achieve MDGs
– Technical innovation (desalination, wastewater reuse)
• Institutional innovation
– Improving efficiency of utilities
– Demand management
– Devolving responsibility for managing local systems
to communities
– River basin / groundwater management
But major management challenges
remain
• Use already exceeds renewable supplies
• Local level conflicts are frequent
Average national proportion of total (internal & external)
renewable water resources withdrawn
160
140
100
80
60
40
20
Am
or
th
N
e
ro
p
W
-E
u
er
ica
Z
s/
N
Au
SS
A
SA
A
M
EN
C
LA
EC
A
0
EA
P
Percent
120
Al
ge
r
Ba ia
hr
ai
D n
jib
Ir a
ou
n,
ti
Is
Eg
la
m
i c ypt
R
ep
of
Ir a
q
Is
ra
e
Jo l
rd
an
Li
by
Ku
an
w
a
A
ra Leb it
b
Ja ano
n
m
ah
iri
M ya
or
oc
co
O
m
an
Sy
Sa Q
ria
a
n udi tar
Ar
A
ab rab
i
R
ep a
U
ni
ub
te
li
d
Tu c
A
r
ni
W ab
es
Em sia
tB
an irat
e
k
& s
G
az
Ye a
m
en
Countries rely on non-renewable
water and trade to fill the gaps
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Internal renewable water resources
External renewable water resources
Non-renewable ground water
Virtual Water
Climate variability is projected to
exacerbate aridity in the future
Many countries using both public
money and water inefficiently
Lots of water stored
But not all used well
Share of freshwater resources stored in dams
90
80
3500
70
3000
60
Area that could be
irrigated with stored
water
2500
'000 ha
50
40
30
2000
Area equipped for
irrigation
1500
1000
20
500
10
0
0
EAP ECA LAC MNA SAS SSA NorthAus/NZ W.
America
Europe
Iran
Algeria
source: Min Energy Iran, Min Agriculture Algeria
2. Why are water reforms not
high in the political agenda?
Accounting has not adequately
captured the costs of degradation
Cost of Environmental Degradation of Water
Share of GDP
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
g
Al
ia
er
yp
g
E
t
n
Ir a
Jo
an
d
r
L
no
a
eb
n
M
co
c
o
or
ria
y
S
a
si
i
n
u
T
Environmental degradation is
composed of many factors
Costs of environmental problems relating
to water
Dam siltation
3
% of GDP
2.5
GW depl/poll'n
2
1.5
Lost recreational
value
1
Cost of treating the
sick
0.5
0
Morocco
Iran
Health damage
Over-extraction of groundwater
reduces a country’s savings
Groundwater depletion in selected MENA
countries
Groundwater not
being converted
Into other forms of
capital in equal
amounts
2.5
2.1
2.0
1.4
% of GDP
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
Jordan
Yemen
Egypt
Tunisia
Morocco
Intermittent supply of urban water
has imposed costs to society
• Intermittent supplies at different times of the year
in Jordan, Yemen, West Bank, Gaza, Algeria,
Saudi Arabia
• Done because of deferred maintenance, and as
a rationing tool
• Costs of coping with intermittent supply for
households ≈150% monthly utility bill
• Increase O&M costs for the utility by 40-50%
3. The potential solution?
MNA countries now need to move to a
new paradigm of flexible allocation
Overall
demand
management
More
value per
drop
Services
More
use per
drop
Supply
management
More
water
Allocative
efficiency
Water services
End-use efficiency
Engineering
Allocation can be by price or by
quantity
• Price does not work well to reduce overall water
demand
– Studies indicate that to affect consumption, the price
of irrigation water (85% of consumption) would have
to rise by more than 5 times cost of providing service
– politically impossible
– Price does regulate domestic water consumption but
this is more a financial issue for the utility
• Therefore, some sort of quantity restriction is
necessary
• If the allocations are done through water rights,
those rights can be traded between users
To achieve flexible allocation, countries have
to address three types of scarcity
1) Scarcity of resources
Storing, diverting and transferring water, expanding water
services. Primarily a technical challenge
2) Scarcity of organizational capacity
Strong organizations established to plan water management and
deliver services to people in the 1970s and 1980s. Viewed as a
management challenge
3) Scarcity of external accountability
Rules to ensure that service providers are accountable to their
users and government agencies to their constituents. Primarily a
governance challenge requiring transparency and inclusivity
Mechanisms of public accountability form a
bridge between citizens and government
information
Government
voice
justice
Citizens
Countries with better accountability
deliver better services
• Increased
participation provides
information necessary
for making good
decisions and
providing good
services
• Government and
service providers
must see
consequences of
actions
• Populations must be
able to evaluate
where public money is
spent
The Challenge for Water Accounting
Produced capital
• Historical investment data
• Share of produced assets in total wealth
is constant across income groups
Other sector
Natural
Resources
implications
• Country-level
AFP Fund notdata
utilized
on physical
for statedstocks
objectives
• Estimates of natural resource rents based on
world prices and local costs
• Share of natural capital in total wealth falls
with income, and of intangible assets rises
Intangible Capital
 Difference between total wealth and the
produced and other produced and natural
stock – Human Capital, institutions and
governance
 How to measure policies and institutions
for natural resource management?
Intangible capital is facilitated by
external accountability mechanisms
Public good concerns
Common pool concerns
Laws, norms
Budget rules
Access to Voice Access Cost recovery
information
to Justice
Indicators of External
Accountability
External accountability has two
challenges for accounting:
• How can structure of laws,
conventions and financing
rules be measured?
• How can information
uncertainty be captured as a
cost?
Summing Up: Measuring external
accountability the new frontier
Citizens
Government
Information
Laws
Rules for public
disclosure
Information
Cost-recovery,
public budgeting
Financing
Payment for
services
Inspections,
courts
Enforcement /
Dispute
resolution
Self-regulation,
community and
traditional dispute
resolution
Political drivers of water reform are
changing – accounting innovations help
Political Economy
Social & Cultural
Forces
Economic
Forces
Environmental
Forces
Technical
Options
Institutions
Interest Groups
Policy-Makers
Migration,
increased
education
Water Outcomes
Trade,
fiscal crisis
Droughts,
floods
Desal costs