Food security strategies
• Domestic production – food selfsufficiency or food sovereignty.
• Commercial food imports – trade
based.
• Food aid.
• Land acquisition overseas
SOME STYLISED FACTS
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Most Arab countries import around 50% of food
calories.
Around 35% daily calories from wheat.
Largest net importer of cereals 2010=66 million mt.
In 2010 Qatar, Libya, Oman, Bahrain, Israel, Kuwait,
Saudi, UAE in world top 20 per capita cereal importers.
IFPRI IMPACT model and FAO Food Balance Model
predict food demand will grow rapidly and MENA food
production will not keep pace to 2030 (except Sudan).
Implies increasing food imports.
5 exporters – Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU and USA
supply 73% of world’s traded cereals.
Between 1990-2005 MENA the only region that had an
increase in proportion of under nourished people and
this has worsened sine 2008.
Figure 1.1 FAO Food Price Index
Note: The FAO Food Price Index is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities. It consists of the average of five commodity group price indices (representing 55 quotations),
weighted with the average export shares of each of the groups for 2002-2004. Source: http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/wfs-home/foodpricesindex/en/
Causes of food price shock
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Population and income growth – China, India,
GCC.
Changing food consumption patterns.
Biofuel demand esp. in USA.
Thin global food markets.
Limited global stocks.
Climate change and natural disasters.
Declining global cereal productivity growth.
High oil prices.
Speculative trading in ag. commodities.
Export restrictions.
Effect of high food prices in MENA
Additional 4 million undernourished.
• Contributed to poverty.
• Food riots and demonstrations.
• Inflation – twice the level of world
inflation in 2007/08.
• Deteriorating trade balance.
• Fiscal pressures.
Irrigated land devoted to cereals:
Maghreb 40%
Mashreq 73%
GCC 73%
In MENA agriculture contributes 12%
to region’s GDP yet uses over 80% of
region’s water compared to 4% used
by industry.
Strengthening the trade-based
strategy
Improve supply chain efficiency.
Develop virtual stockpiles.
Invest in infrastructure to store and
transport food.
MENA food sovereignty
More domestic food production
and/or
Acquire land in third party countries
Riyadh Declaration “Emergency
Programme for Arab Food
Security” ratified 2012.
First pillar is to boost Arab food selfsufficiency. BY 2030 following
increases planned:
Grain crops 57 – 93%
Sugar crops 81%
Oil seed crops 69%
Buying or leasing of land in other
countries
Between 2006-2010 15-20 million hectares of
land bought mainly by MENA.
Saudi and UAE hold 2.8 million hectares in
Indonesia, Pakistan, Sudan, Tanzania.
Egypt in Sudan and Uganda.
Bahrain in Philippines.
Kuwait in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar.
Libya in Ukraine and Zimbabwe.
Qatar in Cambodia, Vietnam, Kenya, Sudan.
Land acquisitions in other countries
by:
• Governments eg. UAE.
• Multinational financial institutions
eg. Arab Authority for Agricultural
Investment and Development
(AAAID).
• Private companies eg. Saudi’s AlQudra.
Problems with land purchases
abroad
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Lack of transparency.
Labour abuse.
Threatens host country food security.
Locals lose land entitlements.
Environmental damage.
Political conflict.
Opposition from agriculturalists in MENA
Weak institutions in host country.
New form of colonialism or imperialism.