Census Planning and Management United Nations Statistics Division 22–26 October 2007

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Census Planning and Management
United Nations Statistics Division
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Reference Material for Presentation
1. Handbook on Census Management for Population and
Housing Censuses, United Nations Publication, Sales No.
E.00.XVII.15.Rev.1, New York, 2001
2. Principles and Recommendations for Population and
Housing Censuses, Revision 2 (forthcoming)
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Both are available on the United Nations Statistics Division web-site:
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/sources/census/census3.htm
and on the CD for this workshop
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Overview of Presentation
 Census Planning
 Quality Assurance
 Evaluation
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Census planning – what is it?
 Census planning is the core process
linking the different phases of the
census cycle:





Preparation
Field operations
Processing
Dissemination
Evaluation
 Census planning is the most critical
process to conducting a successful
census
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Census planning (contd).
 Aim of the planning process is to ensure that:
 Each phase is properly resourced and organized
 The output of each phase is of sufficient quality for all
subsequent phases
 All dependencies between the different phases are
identified
 Due to long duration of census cycle, planning
should not remain static but be dynamic and
flexible to take into account changes that occur
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Census planning (contd.)
 Each phase of the census cycle is dependent on a
preceding phase:
 The quality of the output from each phase has a direct
effect on the success of the next phase
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Census Planning (contd.)
 Issues that require careful consideration when
planning a census:
√ Specifying the role of the census
√ The role of Government
√ Setting goals
√ Developing project plans
√ Monitoring project
√ Developing a budget
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Census Planning- The role of the census
Issues to consider
 The census should be considered as part of the larger
National Statistical Programme
 The prime role of a census is usually to provide an
accurate count of the total population for each of the
administrative regions of a country
 The key strength of a census is the ability to provide
data for small geographic areas and for small population
groups
 When data are not required at this level of detail, other
statistical methodologies more cost-effective than
censuses should be adopted
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Census Planning – The role of Government
To provide:
 The legal framework for the census
 Funding for the census
 Logistical support for the census
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Census Planning – Setting goals
 Needs and requirements of stakeholders
should be used to establish the census
goals, taking into account:

Costs

Data quality considerations

Logistical implications

Need to maintain public cooperation and
confidence
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Census Planning – Setting goals (contd.)

Census goals generally revolve around:
(a) Topics on which to collect data
(b) Confidentiality
(c) Timeliness of data release
(d) Data quality
(e) The nature of the output
(g) The total cost of the census

Goals interact with one another. So priorities need to be set as there
could be trade-offs, e.g., between what topics can be collected and
costs

Once goals are established, they should be communicated to the staff,
and appropriate strategies should be devised
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Census Planning – Developing project plans
 Once goals have been established and
strategies identified to implement them,
more detailed planning begins
 A census is a large project broken down
into a series of related projects that are
dependant on one another
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Census Planning – Developing a project plan
 To understand the interdependencies, need to develop a
framework with a hierarchical structure

Projects (planning, preparation, field operations, etc.)
o
Phases (Field mapping, training, evaluation, etc.)
 Activities (Enumeration area design, map production, etc)
Tasks (Review previous census methods, procedures
and outcomes; Prepare enumeration area design
manual)
 The plan should also include Milestones: Specific points
in time at which key outcomes are expected (to measure
project’s progress)
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Census Planning – Developing a project plan
 Some issues associated with each activity
and task that need to be taken into account
√
√
√
√
Timing
Resources
Risk management
Goals
 Planning process involves identification of
issues and adopting a consistent approach
in listing them
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Census Planning – Risk management
 Project plans should also deal with risk management
 Risks are all possible events that could occur and have a
negative impact on the success of the census
 Risks with significant likelihood should be managed
explicitly by developing fully detailed plans parallel to the
census plan
 Risk management is essential because of the importance
of the census and the fact that it is an infrequent
exercise
 The success or failure of the census may depend on the
implementation of the plans associated with these risks if
they occur
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Census Planning – Monitoring project plans
 Developing a good census project plan is important,
but not sufficient
 The project plan must be monitored closely, and
feedback delivered to all levels of management
 Results should be reviewed on a regular basis
 Most important components to track




Time for completing a task
Resource usage per task
Cost per task
Milestones
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Census Planning – Monitoring project plans
Useful tool for planning and monitoring: the Gantt chart
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Census Planning – Gantt Charts
 Each task has name, duration, start, finish and
timescale
 Horizontal bars represent duration of tasks
relative to each other
 Dependencies and milestones can be included
 Separate Gantt charts can be prepared for
each sub-task and all activities to be completed
 Provides a visual perspective on work-loads
 Automated systems are easy to use and speed
up planning process
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Census Planning – Census budget
 Census budget must be planned well in advance and
cover all known activities
 Take into account that the census budget is highly
cyclical (peaks during enumeration and processing)
 Sufficient resources must be allocated to each phase
 Resource needs for the dissemination phase need to
be realistically assessed
 Funds allocated and used effectively on planning and
preparation will result in savings in all other phases,
namely in enumeration and processing operations
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Census Planning – Census budget (contd.)
 Monitoring the census budget is fundamental
 Monitor regularly (quarterly or even monthly)
expenditures against funding for each project
 Estimates of expenditures for all years of the
census cycle should be prepared in advance
and reviewed yearly
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This would allow to identify on time possible
shortfalls, and take appropriate measures
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Census Planning - Administrative report


What is it?
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It’s the census “historical memory”: a report where all
census experiences are recorded
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It is not a detailed description of the process
(documentation)
What is the purpose?

To retain as much as possible the skills and knowledge
acquired in developing the census, and use them at the
time of the next census
Why is it needed?
-
Because after census results are released, most census
staff usually move to other duties
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Census Planning – Administrative Report (contd.)
 When should it be prepared?
- As soon as the decision to take a census is made.
Evaluation and recording should not be left until the
end of the census process
 How?
- The structure of the report could be similar to the
structure of the project plan, but it could be
modified (group tasks or create sub-tasks when
appropriate)
 Keep record of resources used (staff years and funds)
and of changes to the planned schedule of activities
(what changes, and why?)
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Census Planning – Administrative Report (contd.)
How should it used?
 To plan subsequent censuses or other large scale
statistical activities (i.e.: “lessons learned”)
 To create synergies in the current census cycle
planning and management tasks
 To transfer knowledge and share experiences with
other countries
 To provide advice and technical assistance to
countries that need them (relevant for donors and
development partners)
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Quality Assurance
 Due to the size and complexity of census
operations, it is likely that errors may arise
at any stage of the census
 To minimize and control errors, it is good
practice to devote a part of the budget to
quality assurance and control programmes
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
About Quality Assurance
 The objective of quality assurance is to
provide standards and controls so that
decisions can be taken quickly to correct or
change on-going census operations
 There is no single quality assurance system
that can be applied to all censuses. They
need to be specified for each census and
for each stage of the census operations
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
What’s Quality Assurance?
 Attributes to quality include:
√
√
√
√
relevance
cost
timeliness
data accuracy
 Achieving a quality outcome is essentially
about balancing cost, timeliness, accuracy
and relevance - relevance usually
determined early when topics and output
determined
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Measuring Quality
 The 3 attributes – cost, timeliness and data quality are
inter-linked. Higher quality data can be obtained for
higher cost whilst timeliness increases the relevance and
utility of data
 Deficiencies in quality are usually the results of
deficiencies in the process rather than the actions of staff
 Key to achieving a quality outcome is to regularly
measure the cost, timeliness and accuracy so that the
process can be improved - using the Quality Assurance
Circle
 Quality is relative, and based on what is acceptable,
rather than a concept of achieving absolute perfection
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Quality Assurance Circle
Measure Quality
Implement Corrective
Action
Identify Root
Causes of Problem
Identify Most
Important Quality
Problem
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Quality Assurance
 People undertaking the process are in a good position to
identify problems and suggest improvements
 Quality therefore relies on:
 established, documented procedures
 systems to monitor outcomes
 active encouragement by management to involve
staff in identifying and resolving quality issues
 Managers play a key role in achieving quality:
 establish a culture of focusing on quality
 giving staff responsibilities to allow them to achieve
 ensure staff understand the philosophy of quality
 providing the opportunity for staff to contribute
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Quality Control versus Quality Assurance
 Quality Control: finding errors and fixing them
 relies on ability to find all errors
 can add significant cost
 fixing errors can itself introduce error
 puts the responsibility in the hands of the inspector
 Quality Assurance/Continuous Quality Improvement:
emphasis on improving the process rather than just
fixing the error
 recognizes there will be errors in the process
 aims to improve the process as it proceeds
 gives staff a responsibility in improving the process
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Activities to Assist in Assuring Quality of the Census

Testing the form design
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
Testing the field operations
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
How are the procedures implemented? does the training provide staff
with sufficient skills? what suggestion do staff have to improve the
process?
Testing the data processing, dissemination and evaluation
-

involving the public to learn how they understand the questions being
asked
involving stakeholders to ensure the results obtained are as expected,
such as the data processing team to ensure the form works with the
processing systems, and the subject matter specialists to ensure the
questions are being answered as expected
do the systems perform as expected? how well do the documented
procedures work? how accurate is the data obtained during the test?
It is ok for tests to fail - the purpose of testing is to learn and
improve
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Quality Improvement and the Census
 The quality circle can be applied to the
entire census cycle with
 Performance in the previous phase being
evaluated at any given level of detail
 Problems with quality ranked in order of
importance
 Root causes identified and corrective action
implemented
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Quality Circle Dependency Chart
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Evaluation
 Evaluation may be considered as the last stage of
the census cycle or the first step in the next
census cycle
 All aspects of the census program should be
evaluated (strengths and weaknesses)
 Evaluation of the accuracy of the census data
should be undertaken through:

comparing the census results with similar data from other
sources such as surveys, previous census or analytical
methods assessing the quality or degree of accuracy of
the data, or the coverage of the population
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Purpose of Evaluation of Data Accuracy
 To inform users of the quality of the
current census data and to assist in
future improvements, through:
- Improving processes
- Establishing performance benchmarks
against which the quality of the data
from future censuses can be measured
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Evaluation of Coverage
 This aims at estimating the extent to which people have
been missed or duplicated
 The best way of estimating undercount or over-count is
through a post enumeration survey (PES)
 Undercount may result from missing out households due
to difficult access, people in transit, highly mobile
persons, inaccurate mapping, misunderstanding census
instructions, etc.
 Over-count may result from duplication in overlapping
E.A’s, long enumeration periods, misinterpretation of
coverage instructions, etc.
 Usually more people are missed than double counted
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Coverage – Post enumeration survey
 The PES should be independent from the census, as
it provides an independent validation of the census
count
 The PES must be representative of the whole
country and of all population groups and should be
conducted as close to the census as possible,
without interfering with the census
 The census/PES matching greatly benefits from
accurate recording of names and addresses during
both exercises. Other matching characteristics
include age, sex, birthplace and relationships
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Accuracy
 Accuracy involves assessing the reliability of the data.
Benchmarks can be established for each variable to
assess the contributions of non-response, editing and
imputation to data quality.
 Tables can be created comparing non-response rates
between censuses. The tables can show responses before
and after processing, edits done, and imputations made,
in the compilation of data for each variable. This will show
the impact of the processing system on the original
responses.
 Other data sets (eg. a labour force survey) may give
indicative information to benchmark the census on the
size of the labour force
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Detailed Analysis
 In-depth analysis should include comparisons
between censuses and other data from surveys or
administrative sources. The surveys need to be
based on compatible standards and should be recent
 Census data on births and deaths, in many
countries, can only be investigated through indirect
methods, as vital registration systems are deficient.
These may include study of the age-sex distribution,
stable population analysis, etc.
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
Thank you.
Workshop on Census Cartography and Management, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
22–26 October 2007
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