Post Enumeration Survey of
Indonesia Population Census 2010
Directorate for Development of Census
and Survey Methodology
May 10, 2010
1
 Non
sampling error always exists in data
collection.
 This error is bias source which is caused
by field enumerator and respondent
responses.
2
 Field
staff error:
• coverage error : under coverage or over
coverage, and
• content error
 While, respondent
error: response error
which is part of content error.
3
 The
Indonesia Badan Pusat Statistik
(Statistics Indonesia, BPS) is conducting
the 2010 Population Census in May of
2010. In order to evaluate the quality of
the 2010 Census, the BPS will conduct a
Post Enumeration Survey (PES) in a
sample of census enumeration blocks
(CBs) about one month following the
census enumeration.
4
 The
objective of the PES will be to evaluate
both the census coverage as well as the content
errors in the census data
 Census coverage indicators (i.e., omission rate,
net coverage error rate)
• Reliable estimates for 33 provinces
• Based on dual system estimation
 Measure
census content errors
• Cross-tabulate census and PES responses for
each variable, using records for matched
persons
• Indices of inconsistency – measure of response
error
5
PES SP2000
1.
2.
3.
Was not designed to
estimate the population
Sample size:
• 4 provinces ( 11
regencies/cities)
• 40 census blocks
Without field
reconciliation
PES SP2010
1.
Designed to estimate the
population (Province level)
2.
Sample size:
• 33 provinces
• 1200 census blocks
3.
With field reconciliation
6
Coverage
PES SP2010 will be conducted in:
33 provinces
1.200 census blocks (CBs)
7
Activity Time Table

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
Activity
Master Nat’l Instructors Workshop
Document Delivery
Instructors Training
Field Enumerator Training
HH & Population Enumeration
Matching Coordinator & Data Processing Briefing
Desk-match) HH & population
Reconciliation visit
Final Matching
Data Processing in BPS Province
Doc & data delivery to BPS HQ
Statistical Counting
Data Analysis & report writing
Publication printing
Schedule
Week III April 2010
May 2010
Week I June 2010
Week II June 2010
Week III-IV June 2010
Week III-IV June 2010
Week I July 2010
Week II July 2010
Week III July 2010
July-September 2010
August-September 2010
September 2010
September 2010
October 2010
8
Sample Allocation
Sample allocation:
Proportional to square root of population
Min 24 CBs; Max 80 CBs per province
9
Selection of CBs Sample
One Stage PPS, size: estimated number of
household from census mapping ( KK ),
Urban/Rural as implicit stratification variable
Exception for Provinces of Maluku, Maluku
Utara, Papua & Papua Barat:
Two stage sampling:
1. Select 6 districts
2. Select 4 CBs per district
10
Training in BPS Province
1. Field enumerator training (3 effective days)
- Participants are CP2010 best enumerators
2. Matcher training (2effective days)
- Matcher from BPS Province
3. Data entry training (3 effective days)
- Persons form BPS Province
11
Head of Statistics Indonesia
Deputy of MIS
Head of BPS Province
Head of IPDS BPS Prov
Head of BPS Reg/City
Head of IPDS BPS Reg/City
Team Coordinator
Coord of
Sub Dist
Statistics
Field Enumerator
12
 Headquarter
• General Person In Charge (PIC) is head of BPS
HQ, helped by Deputy of MIS.
• Technical PIC is Director for Development of
Census & Survey Methodology.
 Province
• General PIC is head of BPS Province.
• Technical PIC is Head of IPDS BPS Province
13
 District
• General PIC is head of BPS Reg/City
• Technical PIC is Head of IPDS BPS Reg/City
Diagram 2. Field
Organization of PES
PC2010
Head of IPDS BPS Reg/City
Head of Social
Statistics BPS Reg/
City
Team Coordinator
Coord of
Sub Dist
Statistics
Enumerator1
Enumerator2
14
 Field
• A team consists of 1team coordinator & 2
•
•
•
•
enumerators.
Team Coord is Kepala Seksi Or Coord of SubDist
Statistics (KSK) or staff of BPS Reg/City with best
capabilities,
Enumerator is statistical partner of staff BPS
Reg/City appointed.
Team coord coordinated with KSK for filed
enumeration and responsible to Kasie IPDS.
Since PES is part of Population Census, then Kasie
IPDS should coordinate with Kasie Statistik Sosial.
15
 Documents
for training & field enumeration
will be delivered by BPS HQ to BPS Province
c.q. Kabid IPDS.
 BPS Province will distribute these
documents needed by enumerators to BPS
Reg/City c.q. Kasi IPDS.
 BPS Reg/City will distribute documents to
team coord, next team cooed will distribute
it to enumerators as much as needed for
field enumeration.
16
 BPS
Reg/City have to keep eye on
documents of enumeration whether it have
been given to team coord on time, whether
team coord have given the cleaned
document to BPS Reg/City.
 After document checking in BPS Reg/City is
done, document must be delivered to BPS
Province c.q. Kabid IPDS immediately.
 All PES documents will be kept in BPS
Province until final report of Population
Census 2010 is released.
17
PES Enumeration
1 month following census enumeration
All census documents already in BPS Province to
maintain independency
Max 6 weeks after census:
1. Reducing recall error
2. Reducing level of population movement
18
PES Enumeration (2)
Enumeration by team:
1. One team consists of 1 team coordinator and
two enumerators
2. Workload: 2-4 CBs per team
19
PES Enumeration (3)
PES enumerator should be independent of the
census operation
PES enumerator assigned to different CBs from
his/her census working areas.
PES questionnaires are designed to obtain
information on current residents of (de jure)
and persons who moved out after census (outmovers).
20
Moving Status of Enumerated Persons
Important to account for moving status of
population between census and PES
Current PES residents:
1. Non-movers
2. Persons who are recorded after census
a) In-mover
b) Out-of-scope (born after census)
Out-movers (moved or died after census)
21
 Procedure
C1 described in reference
manuals
 Match non-movers and out-movers
• Easier to find in same sample CB
 Count in-movers
• More accurate coverage
 Estimate matched movers
• Apply match rate of out-movers to number of in-
movers
Questionnaire SP2010 PES1
Will be used one for all:
1. HH and population enumeration
2. Matching of hh/population
3. Field reconciliation
Shading Area  will be taken from census
questionnaire (Form SP2010-C1)
Consists of three main blocks (of total 9 blocks):
1. Block IV  Non-mover and in-mover
2. Block V  Persons moved/died after census
3. Block VI  Persons enumerated in census not in
PES
23
24
25
26
27
Questionnaire SP2010 PES2
For household enumerated in census not in PES
28
29
SP2010 PES1
HH
enume
rated
in PES
&
Censu
s
SP2010-C1
No
Yes
FINISH
PROBABL
Y MATCH?
No
HH Status in
SP200 PES1 =
Non-match
Yes
PERSONS
INITIAL
MATCHING
No
HH
ENUME
RATED
IN
CENSU
S NOT
IN PES
FILL
SP2010 PES2
Yes
FIELD
RECONCILIATI
ON
PERSON FINAL
MATCHING
30


Two-way matching between all
households and persons (non-movers
and out-movers) enumerated in census
and PES for sample CBs.
HH and persons enumerated in PES
coded as not matched are treated as
census omissions in PES estimation
procedures.
31



Matching documents PES and census
will be conducted in BPS PROVINCE.
a. 1 matcher will match 3 CBs
b. Matcher is staff of BPS Province
Quality control of matching operation
will be better.
Documents need to be sent back to BPS
Reg/City for reconciliation visit
32
 First level of matching – households
 Availability of census stickers for most
households will make matching more
effective and faster
 First step – match households based on
census sticker information
 Next – remaining households matched
based on names of heads of household
• Possible to use PES listing sheets to help with
matching
 After
first part of household matching,
remaining households matched based on
names of individual persons
 Households considered matched if at
least one person matched
 Multiple households can be matched
• Matched 1 to 2 or more
• Matched 2 or more to 1

7 (seven) possibilities found in initial matching of
household:
1. Matched 1 to 1
2. Matched 1 to 2 or more
3. Matched 2 or more to 1
4. Non-match
5. In-mover
6. Out-of-scope
7. Possible match
35
 Only
for hh that is matched
 Matching of persons only done for:
• Non-movers
• Out-movers (moved or died after census)

Matching establish numbers of rules,
allow some flexibility in range of ages
especially for older persons.
36
 Generally, person
will be match in matched
hh. Non-movers and out-movers will be
matched with person in census.
 Non-movers
are persons who are listed in
Block IV Form SP2010 PES1, out-movers are
persons who are listed in Block V Form
SP2010 PES1.
37

Possible match  name is consistent and
some other characteristics match, but
not all
• When matcher consider there is a chance the
PES and census persons match.

Matching coordinator may convert some
possible matches to final matches
before reconciliation
38
 In
assinging person match status,
matcher has match 4 variables of PES &
census:
1. name of person,
2. sex,
3. relationship to head of hh, and,
4. age.
 Matcher
has to establish rules in
assigning person initial match status.
39
No.
Criteria
I.
4 variables are the same
II.
3 variables are the same,
one variable is different:
Conditional
Match
a. Sex
b. Name
c. Age
d. Relationship to head of
Initial Match Status
Possible match
within tolerance
Match
Out of tolerance
Possible match
within tolerance
Match
Out of tolerance
Possible match
Not contradictory
Match
Contradictory
Possible match
household
40
Criteria
No.
III. 2 variables are the same:
Conditional
Name
Initial Match Status
OUGHT TO
BE THE SAME
a. Name & sex
Possible match
b. Name & Relationship to
Possible match
the head of household
c. Name & Age
Possible match
d. Others
Non Match
IV. 1 variable is the same:
a. Name
Possible match
b. Others
Non Match
V. None of 4 variables is the
Non match
same
41
Tabel 4.3 Tolerance for Variable: Name, Relationship to head of hh, and Age
No.
1
Variable
Name
Tolerance
 Minor spelling difference that does not
change the sound. Sound is phonetically
the same but the spelling differs.
 Shortening of names and use of initial and
nicknames in common use will be
considered agreements, for example, Tony
for Antonio, Fata for Fatimah, Ed for
Eduardo, or Ben for Benikana.
42
No.
2
Variable
Tolerance
Relationship to head of hh  Not contradictory (see Table 4.4).
 For example PES may show the relationship
as head, spouse head, daughter, and mother;
census may show the mother as head, PES
head as son and all the other household
members as other relatives. In this example,
Census and PES entries are not contradictory.
3
Age:
Tolerance
Under 15 years
+ 2 tahun
15 – 29 years
+ 4 tahun
30 – 44 years
+ 7 tahun
45 – 64 years
+ 10 tahun
65 years or older
+ 15 tahun
43
Tabel 4.4 Changes of Relationship to Head of HH Between PES & Census
1
RELATIONSHIP TO HEAD OF
HOUSEHOLD
Cen
sus
2
Head Spou
of HH se
3
4
5
PES
6
7
Son/
Adopt
Parent
dau
ed/St
Grand s/Pare
Child
ghte
ep
child nt-inr-inchild
law
law
8
9
0
Others
family
Housem
aid
Oth
ers
1
Head of HH
2
Spouse
P
3
Child
P

4
Adopted/Step child
P


5
6
Son/daughter-in-law
Grandchild
Parents/Parent-inlaw
P
P
P

P
P
P


P

P



8
Others family







9
Housemaid









Others
P : not contradictory




7
0
Notes:
P
P
P
P
P
P





P



































 : Contradictory


44
 Reconciliation
visit is critical part of PES
methodology
 Necessary to follow up all households and
persons enumerated in the census but not in
the PES
• Determine whether each household and person was
correctly enumerated in the census
• Erroneously enumerated persons subtracted from
census population in the estimation procedures
 Follow
up cases of possible matches to
determine final match status
 The
objectives of reconciliation visit is not to
make any correction to the result of census or
PES enumeration (because this would break
the assumption of independency), but only to
verify information which have been gathered.
 To
maintain independency between PES and
census, enumerator is not allowed to add
person or hh, or to change demographic
characteristics of person/hh, either in census
or in PES questionnaire.
46
After reconciliation visit, there are no more
cases of ”possible match”. All outcomes
will be mutually exclusive.
47
Asumption: PES and Census are independent.
Census
PES
Enumerated
M
N21
NC
Enumerated
Omitted
Total
Omitted
N12
N22
N.2
Total
NP
N2.
NT
N  N 
P( Matched ) =  C    P 
 NT   NT 
NT =
NC  NP = NC = NC
M
 M  RM


 NP
RM = proportion of matched person
from PES data
 Necessary
to attach weights to the PES
data for estimates to be representative
 Weights based on inverse of probability
of selection
 Weights will vary by stratum and CB
 Weights may be adjusted based on final
census results
Census Population Correctly
Enumerated
The total census population correctly enumerated
( N̂ ) is estimated by subtracting an estimate of the
census erroneously enumerated population from the
PES data (based on the E-sample), ÊC , from the
official census figure for the total population.
C
Nˆ C  N 'C EˆC
N 'C
= where is the official census total population
50
Dual System Estimator of the Total Population
ˆ
N
'

E
C
C
ˆ
NT 
Rˆ M
N̂ T = estimation of total population
The PES results will be used to evaluate the census
coverage errors, but they will probably will not be
used to adjust the official results from the census.
51
Net Census Undercount Rate
ˆ  N'
N
T
C
ˆ
RU 
Nˆ T
N̂ T = estimation of total population
R̂U
= Net Census Undercount Rate
52
PES Estimate of the Total Population
PES estimate of the total population [ N̂ P ] =
• Weighted estimate of non-movers plus inmovers enumerated by the PES.
The matched population M̂ is estimated as
matched out  movers 

M̂  matched non  movers   in - movers 

total out - movers 

53
The Dual System Estimates
1.
ˆ
Preliminary estimate of N'
T
ˆ '  Eˆ
N
Nˆ 'T  C C
Rˆ
M
ˆ =
N'
C
=
weighted estimate of matched population + census correctly
enumerated population (missed by PES) + census erroneously
enumerated population
PES survey estimate of the total population enumerated in census
Once the official census population ( N 'C ) is available, the
ˆ could then be ratio-adjusted as:
estimate of N'
T
2.
N 'C
ˆ
ˆ
NT  N 'T 
Nˆ 'C
The final estimate N̂ T will the be used to calculate the final net
census undercount rate ( R̂ ), using the formula specified
U
previously.
54
Census Content Error Evaluation
Based on the data for matched persons:
• Non-movers, and
• Out-movers
55
 Evaluating
Censuses of Population and
Housing, U.S. Census Bureau, 1985
 Design and Implementation of a PostEnumeration Survey: Developing Country
Example, U.S. Census Bureau, August 1993
 POPSTAN (A Case Study for the 1980 Censuses
of Population and Housing), Parts A, B and D,
U.S. Census Bureau, 1979
THE END
57