Census Planning and Management United Nations Statistics Division

advertisement
Census Planning and Management
United Nations Statistics Division
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Reference Material for Presentation
1. Handbook on Census Management for Population and
Housing Censuses, United Nations Publication, Sales No.
E.00.XVII.15.Rev.1, New York, 2001
2. Principles and Recommendations for Population and
Housing Censuses, Revision 2 (2008)
-
Both are available on the United Nations Statistics Division web-site:
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/sources/census/census3.htm.
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Overview of Presentation
 Census Planning
 Quality Assurance
 Evaluation
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
PART I:
Census Planning – What is it?
 Census planning is the core process
linking the different phases of the
census cycle:





Preparation
Field operations
Processing
Dissemination
Evaluation
 Census planning is the most critical
process to conducting a successful
census
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Census Planning (contd).

Aim of the planning process is to ensure that:




Each phase is properly resourced and organized
The output of each phase is of sufficient quality for all
subsequent phases
All dependencies between the different phases are identified
Due to long duration of census cycle, planning should not remain
static but should be dynamic and continuous …and should be
flexible enough to take into account changes that occur along the
way….
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Census Planning (contd.)
 Each phase of the census cycle is dependent on a
preceding phase:
 The quality of the output from each phase has a direct
effect on the success of the next phase
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Census Planning (contd.)
 Issues that require careful consideration when planning a
census:
√
a) Specifying the role of the census
√
b) Specifying the role of Government
√
c) Setting goals
√
d) Developing a project plan
√
e) Monitoring the project plan
√
f) Developing a budget
√
g) Drafting an administrative report
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Census Planninga) Specifying the role of the census
Issues to consider
 The census should be considered as part of the larger
National Statistical Programme
 The prime role of a census is usually to provide an
accurate count of the total population for each of the
administrative regions of a country
 The key strength of a census is the ability to provide
data for small geographic areas and for small population
groups
 When data are not required at this level of detail, other
statistical methodologies more cost-effective than
censuses should be adopted (e.g., sample surveys)
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Census Planninga) Specifying the role of the census

The census serves other important roles as well:





Essential for public administration in ensuring equity in
distribution of wealth and government services in the areas of
education, health, etc
Used for delineation of electoral districts at national and local
levels, and for provision of basic headcount for elections
Serves as sampling frame for entire national household survey
program
Generates population benchmarks for use by rest of national
statistical system (e.g., by household sample surveys), and
allows for production of inter-census projections
Census results used as a basis for research and analysis to
inform evidence-based policy making
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Census Planning –
b) Specifying the role of Government
To provide:
 The legal framework for the census which
covers: authority of NSO, topics to be
included, citizens’ obligations,
confidentiality protection, role of other
organizations, etc.
 Funding for the census
 Logistical support for the census
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Census Planning –
c) Setting goals
 Needs and requirements of stakeholders
should be used to establish the census
goals, taking into account:

Costs

Data quality considerations

Logistical implications

Need to maintain public cooperation and
confidence
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Census Planning –
c) Setting goals

Census goals generally revolve around:
(a) Topics on which to collect data
(b) Confidentiality
(c) Timeliness of data release
(d) Data quality
(e) The nature of the output
(g) The total cost of the census

Goals interact with one another. So priorities need to be set as there
could be trade-offs, e.g., between what topics can be collected and
costs

Once goals are established, they should be communicated to the staff,
and appropriate strategies should be devised
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Census Planning –
d) Developing a project plan
 Once goals have been established and
strategies identified to implement them,
more detailed planning begins
 A census is a large project broken down
into a series of related projects that are
dependant on one another
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Census Planning –
d) Developing a project plan
 To understand the interdependencies of the project plan,
there is a need to develop a framework with a
hierarchical structure

Projects (planning, preparation, field operations, etc.)
o
Phases (Field mapping, training, evaluation, etc.)
 Activities (Enumeration area design, map production, etc)

Tasks (Review previous census methods, procedures
and outcomes; Prepare enumeration area design
manual)
 The plan should also include milestones (Specific points
in time at which key outcomes are expected - to
measure each project’s progress)
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Census Planning –
d) Developing a project plan
 Some issues associated with each activity
and task that need to be taken into account
√
√
√
√
Goals
Timing
Resources
Risk management
 Planning process involves identification of
issues and adopting a consistent approach
in dealing with them
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Census Planning –
d) Developing a project plan:
Risk management
 Project plans should also deal with risk management
 Risks are all possible events that could occur and have a
negative impact on the success of the census
 Risks with significant likelihood should be managed
explicitly by developing fully detailed plans parallel to the
census plan
 Risk management is essential because of the importance
of the census and the fact that it is an infrequent
exercise
 The success or failure of the census may depend on the
implementation of the plans associated with these risks if
they occur
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Census Planning –
e) Monitoring the project plan
 Developing a good census project plan is important,
but not sufficient
 The project plan must be monitored closely, and
feedback delivered to all levels of management
 Results should be reviewed on a regular basis
 Most important components to track




Time for completing a task
Resource (personnel) usage per task
Cost per task
Milestones: met or off-track
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Census Planning –
e) Monitoring the project plan:
Gantt Charts
Useful tool for planning and monitoring: the Gantt chart
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Census Planning –
e) Monitoring the project plan:
Gantt Charts

All deviations from project schedule, cost and resources should
be analysed and the impact assessed.

In particular, special attention should be given to:
 Slippage of critical tasks leading up to milestones;
 Critically late tasks, indicating that the estimated time to
complete is later than the planned finish date;
 An over-commitment of resources in the remainder of the
project;
 Too many tasks appearing to be “nearly complete” (“99%
complete” syndrome)

Re-baselining: If it is estimated that a task cannot be
completed in the planned time, then the task must be
extended on the Gantt chart, and other adjustments made
accordingly.
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Census Planning –
f) Developing a budget
 Census budget must be planned well in advance and
cover all known activities
 Sufficient resources must be allocated to each phase
 Essential to take into account that the census budget is
highly cyclical (peaks during enumeration and
processing) so expenditures may be “lumpy”
 Resource requirements for the dissemination phase need
to be realistically assessed - to make sure funds don’t
“run out” by the end of the census cycle
 Funds allocated and used effectively on planning and
preparation can result in savings in all other phases,
namely in enumeration and processing operations
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Census Planning –
f) Developing a budget
 Monitoring the census budget is fundamental
 Monitor regularly (quarterly or even monthly)
expenditures against funding for each project
 Estimates of expenditures for all years of the
census cycle should be prepared in advance
and reviewed yearly. This allows for timely
identification of possible shortfalls to permit
appropriate remedial measures.
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Census Planning –
g) Drafting an administrative report



What is it?
It’s the census “historical memory”: a report where all
census experiences (good and bad) are recorded
It is not a detailed description of the process
(documentation)
What is its purpose?
To retain as much as possible the skills and knowledge
acquired in developing the census, and use them at the
time of the next census
Why is it needed?
Because after census results are released, most census
staff usually move to other duties
Because rationale for decisions made during the census
process are often forgotten in the years following
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Census Planning –
g) Drafting an administrative report
 When should it be prepared?
- It should commence as soon as the decision to take
a census is made and should continue through to
the end of the census process
 What should it look like?
- The structure of the report could be similar to the
structure of the project plan or could be modified
somewhat – creating group tasks or sub-tasks when
appropriate
- A record should be kept of resources used (staff
years and funds) and of changes to the planned
schedule of activities (what changes and why they
were made)
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Census Planning –
g) Drafting an administrative report
 How should it used?
- To plan subsequent censuses or other
large scale statistical activities (i.e.,
lessons learned for future activities)
- To transfer knowledge and share
experiences with other countries
- To provide feedback to relevant donors
and development partners
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
PART II: Quality Assurance
 Due to the size and complexity of census
operations, it is likely that errors may arise
at any stage of the census
 To minimize and control errors, it is good
practice to devote a part of the budget to
quality assurance and control programs
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
About Quality Assurance
 The objective of quality assurance is to provide
standards and controls so that decisions can be taken
quickly to correct or change census operations as they
take place
 There is no single quality assurance system that can
be applied to all censuses. They need to be tailored
specifically for each census and for each stage of the
census operations
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Dimensions of Quality Assurance



Attributes of quality include:

Major Attributes

Other Attributes
√
√
√
√
relevance
cost
timeliness
data accuracy
√
√
√
accessibility
interpretability
coherence
Achieving a quality outcome is essentially about balancing
relevance, cost, timeliness, and accuracy. For example, timeliness
is typically involved in a trade-off against accuracy.
Relevance is usually determined early when topics and output are
determined
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Measuring Quality
 The 4 major attributes – relevance, cost, timeliness and
data accuracy are inter-linked. Data of higher accuracy
can be obtained for higher cost, while acceptable
timeliness increases the relevance of the data
 Deficiencies in quality are usually the results of
deficiencies in the process rather than individual actions
of the staff. For example, insufficient training of staff
may cause them to generate systematic errors that could
have been avoided
 Key to achieving a quality outcome is to regularly
measure the cost, timeliness and accuracy so that the
process can be improved - using the Quality Assurance
Circle (next slide)
 Quality is relative and based on what is acceptable,
rather than an absolute concept of achieving perfection
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Quality Assurance Circle
Measure Quality
Implement Corrective
Action
Identify Root
Causes of Problem
Identify Most
Important Quality
Problem
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Quality Circle Dependency Chart
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Quality Assurance –
Some Fundamentals



Staff (of all levels) engaged in the processes are in a good
position to identify problems and suggest improvements
Quality therefore relies on:
 Active encouragement by management to involve staff in
identifying and resolving quality issues
 Established and documented procedures
 Systems to monitor outcomes
Managers play a key role in achieving quality by:
 Establishing a culture of focusing on quality
 Giving staff responsibilities that allow them to achieve
 Ensuring that staff understand the philosophy of quality
 Providing the opportunity for staff to contribute
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Quality Control versus Quality Assurance
 Quality Control: means finding errors and fixing them
 Relies on ability to find most errors
 Can add significant cost
 Fixing errors can itself introduce other errors
 Puts the responsibility in the hands of the inspector
 Quality Assurance (Continuous Quality Improvement):
has an emphasis on improving the process rather
than just fixing the errors
 Recognizes there will be errors in the process
 Aims to improve the process as it proceeds
 Gives staff a responsibility in improving the process
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Examples of Activities to Assist in Assuring Quality




Testing the form design
Involving the public to learn how they understand the questions being asked
(e.g., focus groups)
Involving stakeholders to ensure the results obtained are as expected
Involving the data processing team to ensure the form works with the
processing systems
Involving the subject matter specialists to ensure the questions are being
answered as expected
Testing the field operations
How are the procedures implemented?
Does the training provide staff with sufficient skills?
What suggestions do staff have to improve the process?
Testing the data processing
Do the systems perform as expected?
How well do the documented procedures work?
How accurate is the data obtained during the test?
It is acceptable for tests to fail - the purpose of testing is to learn and improve!!
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
PART III: Evaluation



All aspects of the census program should be evaluated – this
includes all operations of the census not just the accuracy
(coverage and content) of resulting census data.
Evaluation may be considered as the last stage of the census
cycle or the first step in the next census cycle
Evaluation of the coverage and content of the census data can
be undertaken through:
 Post-enumeration surveys (mainly to measure extent of
under or over-coverage of the population)
 Comparing the census results with similar data from other
sources such as surveys and previous census, and by
using analytical methods (mainly to assess the degree of
errors in the content and to analyze the basic
distributional properties)
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Evaluation of Census Operations
 Evaluation of operations may include every aspect of
the work from initial planning and user consultation
through to final dissemination and analysis
 Changes to any census process may have an impact
on final data quality
 Changes to the enumeration process and processing
systems (coding, edits, etc.) should be closely
monitored
 Strategies to monitor identified points of weaknesses
should be developed through the evaluation
 The results of evaluation should be disseminated
widely to data users
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Evaluation of Coverage
 This aims at estimating the extent to which people have
been missed or duplicated
 The best way of estimating undercount or over-count is
through a post-enumeration survey (PES)
 Undercount may result from missing households due to
difficult access, people in transit, highly mobile persons,
inaccurate mapping, misunderstanding census
instructions, etc.
 Over-count may result from duplication in overlapping
enumeration areas, long enumeration periods,
misinterpretation of coverage instructions, etc.
 Usually more people are missed than double counted
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Evaluation of Coverage –
Post-Enumeration Surveys
 The PES should be independent from the census, as
it provides an independent validation of the census
count
 The PES must be representative of the whole
country and of all population groups, and should be
conducted as close as possible in time to the
census, without interfering with the census
 The census/PES record matching greatly depends
on accurate recording of names and addresses
during both exercises. Other matching
characteristics include age, sex, birthplace and
relationships
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Evaluation of Data Accuracy
 Benchmarks can be established for each variable to
assess the contributions of non-response, editing and
imputation to the overall data quality.
 Tables can be created comparing non-response rates
between censuses. The tables can show responses before
and after processing (edits and imputations) for each
variable. This will show the impact of the processing
system on the original responses.
 Other data sets (e.g., labour force survey) may give
indicative information – for example, benchmarking the
census on the size of the labour force
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Evaluation of Data Accuracy
 In-depth analysis should include comparisons
between censuses and other data from surveys or
administrative sources. The other sources need to be
based on compatible standards, having comparable
concepts and definitions - and should be recent
 In many countries, the quality of census data on
births and deaths can only be investigated through
indirect methods since vital registration systems are
sometimes deficient or absent. The indirect methods
may include study of the age-sex distributions,
stable population analysis, etc.
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
THANK YOU!
UNSD-ESCWA Regional Workshop on Census Data Processing in the ESCWA region:
Contemporary technologies for data capture, methodology and practice of data editing
Doha, State of Qatar, 18-22 May 2008
Download