Topic 6 ©R. Schwartz Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 1 How Buyers & Sellers Meet Each Other ©R. Schwartz Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 2 ECONOMICS 101 The closest thing to it is a Call Auction PRICE SELL The perfectly liquid, frictionless market solution P* BUY 0 ©R. Schwartz Q* QUANTITY Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 3 The Big Problem Enabling Buyers and Sellers, Large and Small, to Find Each Other Two Dimensions • Place • Time ©R. Schwartz Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 4 Order Driven Market Public Seller 10:50 Public Buyer ©R. Schwartz 10:55 Places a Buy Limit Order Limit Order Executes 11:00 The limit order book brings buyer& seller together Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 5 Dealer Intermediation Dealer Sells Public Seller 10:50 10:55 Public Buyer ©R. Schwartz Dealer Buys 11:00 Dealer provision of immediacy brings buyer & seller together Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 6 A Call Auction Public Seller 10:50 Public Buyer ©R. Schwartz 10:55 11:00 A meeting point in time can bring multiple buyers & sellers together Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 7 How a Call Auction Works ©R. Schwartz Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 8 The Electronic Call Auction • Orders that could otherwise be matched and executed are held for a big, multilateral clearing • Clearings are held at pre-determined points in time (i.e., once an hour) • All crossing orders are executed at a single price – Buy orders at that price and higher execute – Sell orders at that price and lower execute ©R. Schwartz Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 9 The Batching of Customer Orders Price 52 O 51 O 50 49 48 47 • •• •O •O • 1 ©R. Schwartz 2 O Offer Bid • O Question How should these limit orders be integrated to produce a good price? 3 4 5 6 No. Orders Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 10 Cumulate The Buy Orders • Individual buy order Price 52 51 •• (1) • 50 49 • 48 • 47 • 1 ©R. Schwartz Cumulated buy orders at the price or better • • (1+2=3) • (3+1=4) • (4+1+5) • (5+1=6) 2 3 4 5 6 No. Orders Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 11 Cumulate The Sell Orders Price 52 • 51 • 50 49 • 48 • (1) O O (5) O (4) O (3) • O (2) • Individual sell order O Cumulative sell orders 47 at the price or better 1 ©R. Schwartz 2 3 4 5 6 Orders Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 12 Match Cumulated Buy & Sell Orders Price 52 51 P* = CUMULATED O SELL ORDERS • • O 50 49 48 O O • O • 47 1 ©R. Schwartz 2 3 4 5 • CUMULATED BUY ORDERS 6 Orders Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 13 Call Auction Limit Order Books Thicker Book Sparser Book ©R. Schwartz Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 14 When Calls Are Used • Market Openings • Market Closings (MOC & LOC orders) • Nasdaq’s Crosses (open and close) • Intra-day At a predetermined time To reopen the market after a trading halt ©R. Schwartz Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 15 Calls Auctions And… • Electronic technology • The time clock – Jim Ross’s piece in the text • Who gets price improvement – Al Berkeley’s piece in the text ©R. Schwartz Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 16 Benefits • Focused liquidity – especially small & mid caps • Control price volatility • Fair • Harder to manipulate • Lower order handling costs • A price discovery mechanism ©R. Schwartz Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 17 Problems • Does not offer immediacy • Bookbuilding ©R. Schwartz Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 18 Order Handling Differences Call vs Continuous Trading • Market orders – infinitely aggressively priced limit orders • Limit orders – can expect to be price improved Who provides liquidity to whom in a call? ©R. Schwartz Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 19 Types of Calls • Price Scan Auction • Sealed Bid Auction • Crossing Network • Open Limit Order Book Auction – TraderEx ©R. Schwartz Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 20 Optimal Order Placement ©R. Schwartz Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 21 How to Submit a Buy Order: Calls are the only game in town Your Reservation Price = $12 Limit Price $11.10 $11.10 $11.10 Clearing Price $11.20 $11.10 $11.00 Surplus $0.00 $0.90 $1.00 Limit Price $11.20 $11.20 $11.20 Clearing Price $11.30 $11.20 $11.10 Surplus $0.00 $0.80 $0.90 Why not $11.30 or higher? ©R. Schwartz Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 22 How to Submit a Buy Order: Calls are the only game in town Your Reservation Price = $12 Conclusion Limit Order Price = Reservation Price = $12 (Or one tick below) ©R. Schwartz Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 23 How To Submit A Buy Order To A Call That Is Followed By Continuous Trading Your Reservation Price = $12 Question: Would You Prefer To 1.Execute at $12.00 or not at all? 2 Execute at $11.90 in call or at $11.90 in continuous with 0.99 prob? 3. Execute at $11.90 in call or at $11.80 in continuous with 0.90 prob? 4. Execute at $11.90 in call or at $11.80 in continuous with 0.10 prob? 5. Execute at $11.90 in call or at $11.80 in continuous with 0.50 prob? ©R. Schwartz Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 24 How to Submit a Buy Order: Call Followed by Continuous (Answers to Questions 2 – 4) Call Auction Continuous Auction Q2 Surplus at $11.90 = $0.100 > Expected Surplus at = $0.10 x 0.99 $11.90 = $0.099 Q3 Surplus at $11.90 = $0.100 < Expected Surplus at = $0.20 x 0.90 $11.80 = $0.180 Q4 Surplus at $11.90 = $0.100 > Expected Surplus at = $0.20 x 0.10 $11.80 = $0.020 Q5 Surplus at $11.90 = $0.100 = Expected Surplus at = $0.20 x 0.50 $11.80 = $0.100 ©R. Schwartz Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 25 How to Submit a Buy Order: Call Followed by Continuous Finding the Optimal Price Price Surplus in Call Breakeven Probability Surplus in of Executing Continuous in Continuous Call Continuous $12.00 $11.90 $0.00 $0.10 NA $11.90 $11.80 $0.10 $0.20 0.50 $11.80 $11.70 $0.20 $0.30 0.67 $11.70 $11.60 $0.30 $0.40 0.75 $11.60 $11.50 $0.40 $0.50 0.80 ©R. Schwartz Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 26 How to Submit a Buy Order: Continuous Followed by Call Your Reservation Price = $12 • Your time frame is the trading day • You place a day order that must be filled by 4:00 pm • As the day progresses, all else equal, you are more apt to place a market order than a limit order • There is a closing call • Your limit order in the closing call would be one tick below your reservation price ($12) ©R. Schwartz Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 27 Continuous Followed by Call S = your surplus from trading Pr = prob your limit order executes in cont. market • E(S) = [Pr x SCont] + [(1-Pr) x E(SCall)] • SCont = surplus if order executes in cont. market • E(SCall) = expected surplus from the call • SCall = max(0, PR – PCall) • Because (1-Pr) x E(SCall) >0, you are more apt to place a limit order in the continuous market when it is followed by a closing call • Remember the gravitation pull effect ©R. Schwartz Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 28 A Call’s Contribution to Market Quality ©R. Schwartz Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 29 Let’s Focus on Volatility • The opening spike: Price discovery • The closing spike: End of day impatience to Get the job done • What does this imply about market structure? • A natural experiment: Nasdaq’s closing/opening crosses (call auctions) introduced in March/October of 2004 ©R. Schwartz Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 30 The Nasdaq Study* • • • • 52 large cap Nasdaq firms Time period: Feb 04 and Feb 05 We examined per day: 390 1-minute intervals (9:30-16:00) 30 10-second opening intervals (9:30-9:35) 30 10-second closing intervals (15:55-16:00) Volatility measured by high-low range for the interval *“Market Structure and Intra-day Price Volatility: An Event Study on Nasdaq’s Crosses” Michael Pagano, Lin Peng, and Robert Schwartz ©R. Schwartz Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 31 Nasdaq Volatility Differences Between Feb 2004 and Feb 2005 One-minute Volatility Feb 2004 (Pre-Calls) w 60 bps r ange 60 Feb 2005 (Post-Calls) 60 bps r ange 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 0 30 60 90 120 150 i nt er val ©R. Schwartz 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 i nt er val Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 32 Nasdaq Volatility Differences Between Feb 2004 And Feb 2005 10-Second Volatility Feb 2004 (Pre-Calls) 40 bps r ange 40 5 Min After Opening 40 bps r ange 40 5 Min Before Close 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 i nt er val i nt er val ©R. Schwartz 5 Min Before Close 5 Min After Opening 30 0 Feb 2005 (Post-Calls) Equity Markets: Trading and Structure Slide 33 60