Chapter 14 Swap Pricing 1 © 2004 South-Western Publishing Outline 2 Intuition into swap pricing Solving for the swap price Valuing an off-market swap Hedging the swap Pricing a currency swap Intuition Into Swap Pricing 3 Swaps as a pair of bonds Swaps as a series of forward contracts Swaps as a pair of option contracts Swaps as A Pair of Bonds If you buy a bond, you receive interest If you issue a bond you pay interest In a plain vanilla swap, you do both – – – 4 You pay a fixed rate You receive a floating rate Or vice versa Swaps as A Pair of Bonds (cont’d) 5 A bond with a fixed rate of 7% will sell at a premium if this is above the current market rate A bond with a fixed rate of 7% will sell at a discount if this is below the current market rate Swaps as A Pair of Bonds (cont’d) 6 If a firm is involved in a swap and pays a fixed rate of 7% at a time when it would otherwise have to pay a higher rate, the swap is saving the firm money If because of the swap you are obliged to pay more than the current rate, the swap is beneficial to the other party Swaps as A Series of Forward Contracts 7 A forward contract is an agreement to exchange assets at a particular date in the future, without marking-to-market An interest rate swap has known payment dates evenly spaced throughout the tenor of the swap Swaps as A Series of Forward Contracts (cont’d) A swap with a single payment date six months hence is no different than an ordinary six-month forward contract – 8 At that date, the party owing the greater amount remits a difference check Swaps as A Pair of Option Contracts Assume a firm buys a cap and writes a floor, both with a 5% striking price At the next payment date, the firm will – – 9 Receive a check if the benchmark rate is above 5% Remit a check if the benchmark rate is below 5% Swaps as A Pair of Option Contracts (cont’d) The cash flows of the two options are identical to the cash flows associated with a 5% fixed rate swap – – 10 If the floating rate is above the fixed rate, the party paying the fixed rate receives a check If the floating rate is below the fixed rate, the party paying the floating rate receives a check Swaps as A Pair of Option Contracts (cont’d) Cap-floor-swap parity Write floor + 5% 11 Long swap Buy cap = 5% 5% Solving for the Swap Price 12 Introduction The role of the forward curve for LIBOR Implied forward rates Initial condition pricing Quoting the swap price Counterparty risk implications Introduction The swap price is determined by fundamental arbitrage arguments – 13 All swap dealers are in close agreement on what this rate should be The Role of the Forward Curve for LIBOR LIBOR depends on when you want to begin a loan and how long it will last Similar to forward rates: – – 14 A 3 x 6 Forward Rate Agreement (FRA) begins in three months and lasts three months (denoted by 3 f 6 ) A 6 x 12 FRA begins in six months and lasts six months (denoted by 6 f12 ) The Role of the Forward Curve for LIBOR (cont’d) 15 Assume the following LIBOR interest rates: Spot (0f3) 5.42% Six Month (0f6) 5.50% Nine Month (0f9) 5.57% Twelve Month (0f12) 5.62% The Role of the Forward Curve for LIBOR (cont’d) LIBOR yield curve % 5.62 5.57 0 x 12 0x9 5.50 0x6 5.42 spot 0 16 6 9 12 Months Implied Forward Rates We can use these LIBOR rates to solve for the implied forward rates – – – 17 The rate expected to prevail in three months, 3f6 The rate expected to prevail in six months, 6f9 The rate expected to prevail in nine months, 9f12 The technique to obtain the implied forward rates is called bootstrapping Implied Forward Rates (cont’d) An investor can – – 18 Invest in six-month LIBOR and earn 5.50% Invest in spot, three-month LIBOR at 5.42% and re-invest for another three months at maturity If the market expects both choices to provide the same return, then we can solve for the implied forward rate on the 3 x 6 FRA Implied Forward Rates (cont’d) The following relationship is true if both alternatives are expected to provide the same return: 0 f 3 3 f 6 0 f 6 1 1 1 4 4 4 19 2 Implied Forward Rates (cont’d) Using the available data: .0542 3 f 6 .0550 1 1 1 4 4 4 3 f 6 5.58% 20 2 Implied Forward Rates (cont’d) Applying bootstrapping to obtain the other implied forward rates: – 6f9 – 21 = 5.71% 9f12 = 5.77% Implied Forward Rates (cont’d) LIBOR forward rate curve % 5.77 5.71 9 x 12 6x9 5.58 3x6 5.42 spot 0 22 3 6 9 12 Months Initial Condition Pricing An at-the-market swap is one in which the swap price is set such that the present value of the floating rate side of the swap equals the present value of the fixed rate side – The floating rate payments are uncertain Use the spot rate yield curve and the implied forward rate curve 23 Initial Condition Pricing (cont’d) At-the-Market Swap Example A one-year, quarterly payment swap exists based on actual days in the quarter and a 360-day year on both the fixed and floating sides. Days in the next 4 quarters are 91, 90, 92, and 92, respectively. The notional principal of the swap is $1. Convert the future values of the swap into present values by discounting at the appropriate zero coupon rate contained in the forward rate curve. 24 Initial Condition Pricing (cont’d) At-the-Market Swap Example (cont’d) First obtain the discount factors: 91 1 R3 1 .0542 1.013701 360 91 90 1 R6 1 .0550 1.027653 360 25 Initial Condition Pricing (cont’d) At-the-Market Swap Example (cont’d) First obtain the discount factors: 91 90 92 1 R9 1 .0557 1.042239 360 91 90 92 92 1 R12 1 .0562 1.056981 360 26 Initial Condition Pricing (cont’d) At-the-Market Swap Example (cont’d) Next, apply the discount factors to both the fixed and floating rate sides of the swap to solve for the swap fixed rate that will equate the two sides: 91 90 92 92 5.58% 5.71% 5.77% 360 360 360 360 PVfloating 1.013701 1.027653 1.042239 1.056981 .013515 .013575 .014001 .013951 5.42% 0.055042 27 Initial Condition Pricing (cont’d) At-the-Market Swap Example (cont’d) Apply the discount factors to both the fixed and floating rate sides of the swap to solve for the swap fixed rate that will equate the two sides: 91 90 92 92 X% X% X% 360 360 360 360 1.013701 1.027653 1.042239 1.056981 .249361X .243273 X .245199 X .241779 X X% PVfixed 0.979612 X 28 Initial Condition Pricing (cont’d) At-the-Market Swap Example (cont’d) Solving the two equations simultaneously for X gives X = 5.62%. This is the equilibrium swap fixed rate, or swap price. 29 Quoting the Swap Price Common practice to quote the swap price relative to the U.S. Treasury yield curve – There is both a bid and an ask associated with the swap price – 30 Maturity should match the tenor of the swap The dealer adds a swap spread to the appropriate Treasury yield Counterparty Risk Implications From the perspective of the party paying the fixed rate – From the perspective of the party paying the floating rate – 31 Higher when the floating rate is above the fixed rate Higher when the fixed rate is above the floating rate