Chapter Nineteen ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS 1. Risk, by definition, is the chance of loss. A risky situation involves an uncertain outcome, and some possible outcomes are adverse. Repeated draws from the probability distribution will periodically result in the selection of an adverse outcome. It is important to know something about the distribution before choosing to draw one. Because you were lucky once does not mean you will be again. 2. Investors like return and dislike risk. Utility comes from getting more return and reducing risk. Securities are priced to provide a level of return consistent with their perceived level of risk. Over the long term, a portfolio of risky securities should earn a higher return than a safer portfolio. Some portfolio components, however, probably will be losers. Risk-adjusted performance measurement seeks to associate a measure of the likelihood of loss with the return statistic. 3. Investors do not like risk. Everything else being equal, they prefer the least risky alternative. 4. You would want to know how long it took to double, and what its interim price behavior looked like. It also would be useful to compare the security to the return and risk of a market index over the same period. 5. Examples include legal lists of eligible investments, regulatory constraints, special tax incentives/disincentives, and statutory restrictions (the state of Indiana, for instance, once disallowed any common stock investments in its retirement fund). 6. It makes no difference. The geometric mean return is invariant to the order of the returns. 7. a. arithmetic b. geometric c. geometric or arithmetic, depending on what you were going to do with the information 8. Returns can be negative. You cannot take an even root of a negative number, and if you have an odd number of negative returns the geometric mean will be an imaginary number. Return relatives are only positive. 1 Chapter Nineteen 9. When looking at a single security, it is best to use the Treynor measure, as the market only rewards you for bearing systematic risk. The Treynor measure is based on beta, which measures systematic risk. 10. Writing covered calls partially offsets changes in the value of the portfolio either up or down. This attenuates the volatility of the portfolio. ANSWERS TO PROBLEMS 1. x a .026 a .0459 SH a .026 .03 -.087 .0459 x b .032 b .0462 SH b .032 .03 .0433 .0462 x c .040 c .0927 SH c .040 .03 .1079 .0927 2. The annual returns of the equally weighted portfolio are 5%, 0%, -6.33%, 12%, and 5.67%. Their mean is 3.27% with a standard deviation of .0613. The Sharpe measure is then SH p .0327 .03 .0440 .0613 Return C Portfolio B A . Risk 3. A: [(1.05)(1.0)(.95)(1.08)(1.05)].2 - 1 = .0250 B: [(1.04)(1.01)(.96)(1.10)(1.05)].2 - 1 = .0310 C: [(1.06)(.99)(.90)(1.18)(1.07)].2 - 1 = .0358 Portfolio: [(1.05)(1.0)(.9367)(1.12)(1.0567)].2 - 1 = .0308 2 Chapter Nineteen Ranking by geometric mean: C (best) B Portfolio A (worst) 4. Using Excel, the monthly IRR is 0.0026, for an annual rate of 3.12%. 5. IRAR = (SH0 – SHu)o = (.0433 - (-.087))(.0462) = 0.0060 Return optioned unoptioned benchmark RF Standard deviation Sigma (optioned) Sigma (unoptioned) 6. IRAR = (SHo - SHu)o = (.0433 – (-.087)).0462 = .0060 12 7. 783000 t 1 4550 773000 0 t (1 R) (1 R)12 R = 0.004776 per month, or 5.73% per year. 8. Student response. 3 Chapter Nineteen 9. a. Date Description $ Amount Price January 1 January 3 February 1 March 1 March23 April 3 May 1 June 1 July 3 August 1 Balance fwd purchase purchase purchase liquidation purchase purchase purchase purchase purchase $300 $300 $300 $5000 $300 $300 $300 $300 $300 $7.00 $7.00 $7.91 $7.84 $8.13 $8.34 $9.00 $9.74 $9.24 $9.84 Date Sub Period MVB Cash Flow January 1 January 3 February 1 March 1 March23 April 3 May 1 June 1 July 3 August 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 $7,560.08 $7,860.08 $9,181.89 $9,400.63 $4,748.63 $5,171.01 $5,880.22 $6,663.71 $6,621.63 $300 $300 $300 -$5,000 $300 $300 $300 $300 $300 Shares 42.857 37.927 38.265 615.00635.971 33.333 30.801 32.468 30.488 Ending Value $7,560.08 $7,860.08 $9,181.89 $9,400.63 $4,748.36 $5,171.01 $5,880.22 $6,663.71 $6,621.63 $7,351.61 Total Shares 1,080.011 1,122.868 1,160.795 1,199.060 584.054 620.025 653.358 684.159 716.627 747.115 Value $7,560.08 $7,860.08 $9,181.89 $9,400.63 $4,748.36 $5,171.01 $5,880.22 $6,663.71 $6,621.63 $7,351.61 MVE MVE/MV B $7,560.08 $8,881.89 $9,100.63 $9,748.36 $4,871.01 $5,580.22 $6,363.71 $6,321.63 $7,051.61 1.0 1.130 0.991 1.037 1.026 1.079 1.082 0.949 1.065 Product of MVE/MVB values = 1.406 40.6% b. Approximate R $7,351.61 - .5(-$2,600) $8,651.61 1.382 38.2% $7,560.08 .5(-$2,600) $6,260.08 The daily valuation worksheet with $300/month gives precisely the same answer as with the $100/month investment, while the approximate method produces an answer considerably different. This illustrates that while the time-weighted rate of return is invariant to the size of the periodic investments (and is therefore more accurate), the approximate method is sensitive to them. 4