Marshall & Ilsley Bank
WISCONSIN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
DECEMBER 4, 2010
THIRD QUARTER 2010
STEVENS POINT AREA ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Presented by: The Central Wisconsin Economic Research Bureau
Dr. Randy F. Cray
Dr. Scott Wallace
James P. Draxler
Brittany J. Melby
Professor of Economics
CWERB Director
CWERB Research Assistant
Associate Professor of Economics
CWERB Research Associate
CWERB Research Assistant
TABLE 1: NATIONAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS
TABLE 1
NATIONAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS
2009
Third Quarter
2010 Percent
Third Quarter Change
Nominal Gross Domestic Product (Billions)
$14,114.7
$14,730.2
+4.4
Real Gross Domestic Product (Billions of 2000 $)
$12,860.8
$13,260.7
+3.1
98.5
93.2
-5.4
Industrial Production (2002 = 100)
Three Month U.S. Treasury Bill Rate
0.11%
0.14% +22.7
Consumer Price Index(1982-84 = 100)
216.0
218.4
Marshall & Ilsley Bank
+1.1
TABLE 2: UMEMPLOYMENT RATE
CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TABLE 2
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate
CENTRAL WISCONSIN
September 2009
September 2010
Percent
Change
Portage County
5.8%
5.7%
-1.0
City of Stevens Point
7.5%
7.2%
-4.0
Marathon County
7.7%
7.2%
-6.4
Wood County
7.4%
6.7%
-8.8
Central Wisconsin
7.1%
6.7%
-5.6
Wisconsin
7.7%
7.0%
-9.5
United States
9.5%
9.2%
-2.9
Marshall & Ilsley Bank
TABLE 3: EMPLOYMENT
CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TABLE 3
EMPLOYMENT
CENTRAL WISCONSIN
Total Employment
September 2009
(Thousands)
Total Employment Percent
September 2010 Change
(Thousands)
Portage County
40.4
39.6
-2.0
City of Stevens Point
14.3
15.1
+5.6
Marathon County
68.9
67.3
-2.3
Wood County
38.7
38.2
-1.3
148.0
145.1
-2.0
Wisconsin
2,826.2
2,823.1
-0.1
United States
139,079
139,714
+0.5
Central Wisconsin
* Percent change figures reflect data before rounding
Marshall & Ilsley Bank
TABLE 4: WISCONSIN EMPLOYMENT
CHANGE BY SECTOR
TABLE 4:
Employment
CENTRAL WISCONSIN EMPLOYMENT June 2009
CHANGE BY SECTOR
(Thousands)
Employment
June 2010
(Thousands)
Percent
Change
Total Nonfarm
148.6
144.6
-2.7
Total Private
129.9
126.8
-2.4
Construction & Natural Resources
5.0
4.7
-6.0
Manufacturing
24.8
23.7
-4.4
Trade
23.9
23.4
-2.1
Transportation & Utilities
7.6
7.5
-1.3
Financial Activities
11.4
10.8
-5.3
Education & Health Services
26.8
27.3
+1.9
Leisure & Hospitality
11.6
11.5
-0.9
Information & Business Services
18.8
17.8
-5.3
Total Government
18.7
17.8
-4.8
Marshall & Ilsley Bank
TABLE 5: COUNTY SALES TAX DISTRIBUTION
TABLE 5
2009 Sales Tax
2010 Sales Tax
Table
COUNTY
3 Employment
SALES TAX
Table
inDISTRIBUTION
Central
3 Employment
Wisconsin
in (Total
CentralEmployed)
Wisconsin (Total Employed)
(Thousands)
(Thousands)
Percent
Change
Portage County
$1,246.6
$1,225.3
-1.7
Marathon County
$2,463.2
$2,469.3
+0.2
Wood County
$1,233.7
$1,210.7
-1.9
* Percent change figures reflect data before rounding
Marshall & Ilsley Bank
TABLE 6: BUSINESS CONFIDENCE
TABLE 6
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE
Index Value
June 2010
September 2010
Recent Change in National
Economic Conditions
67
46
Recent Change in
Local Economic Conditions
63
46
Expected Change in
National Economic Conditions
60
52
Expected Change in
Local Economic Conditions
58
54
Expected Change in
Industry Conditions
60
50
100 = Substantially Better
50 = Same
0 = Substantially Worse
Marshall & Ilsley Bank
FIGURE 1: EMPLOYMENT LEVEL; WISCONSIN
Marshall & Ilsley Bank
FIGURE 2: UNEMPLOYMENT LEVEL; WISCONSIN
Marshall & Ilsley Bank
FIGURE 3: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE; WI; PERCENT
Marshall & Ilsley Bank
FIGURE 4: LABOR FORCE; WISCONSIN
Marshall & Ilsley Bank
FIGURE 5: MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT: WISCONSIN;
THOUSANDS
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FIGURE 6: EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES; WI
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FIGURE 7: LEISURE & HOSPITALITY; WI
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TABLE 7: PROMINENT INDUSTRIES AVERAGE EMPLOYMENT
PORTAGE COUNTY
TABLE 7:
Employment
PORTAGE COUNTY EMPLOYMENT June 2009
CHANGE BY SECTOR
(Thousands)
Employment
June 2010
(Thousands)
Percent
Change
Total Nonfarm
35.1
33.3
-5.1
Total Private
29.3
27.9
-4.8
Construction & Natural Resources
1.0
0.9
-10.0
Manufacturing
4.3
3.7
-14.0
Trade
5.6
5.5
-1.8
Transportation & Utilities
1.8
1.8
0
Financial Activities
4.4
4.1
-6.8
Education & Health Services
3.6
3.6
0
Leisure & Hospitality
3.4
3.5
2.9
Information & Business Services
5.2
4.8
-7.7
Total Government
5.8
5.4
-6.9
* Percent change figures reflect data before rounding
Marshall & Ilsley Bank
TABLE 8: RETAILER CONFIDENCE
STEVENS POINT- PLOVER AREA
TABLE 8
RETAILER CONFIDENCE
STEVENS POINT - PLOVER AREA
Index Value
June 2010
September 2010
Total Sales Compared
to Previous Year
58
52
Store Traffic Compared
to Previous Year
56
55
Expected Sales Three
Months From Now
58
55
Expected Store Traffic
Three Months From Now
56
55
100 = Substantially Better
50 = Same
0 = Substantially Worse
Marshall & Ilsley Bank
TABLE 9: HELP WANTED ADVERTISING
TABLE 9
Index Value
HELP WANTED ADVERTISING 2009
2010
Stevens Point
(September)
1980=100
10
11
U.S.
(August)
1987=100
10
10
Marshall & Ilsley Bank
TABLE 10: PUBLIC ASSISTANCE CLAIMS
PORTAGE COUNTY
TABLE 10
PUBLIC ASSISTANCE CLAIMS
PORTAGE COUNTY
New Applications
Total Caseload
2009
Third Quarter
(Monthly Avg.)
2010 Percent
Third Quarter Change
(Monthly Avg.)
150
185
+23.3
7,084
6,609
-6.7
Marshall & Ilsley Bank
TABLE 11: PUBLIC ASSISTANCE BY PROGRAM TYPE
PORTAGE COUNTY
TABLE 11
BY PROGRAM TYPE
PORTAGE COUNTY
July
2010
August
September
Average
Medical Assistance
(All Programs)
11,137
11,201
11,096
11,145
Food Share
(Food Stamps)
5,986
6,018
6,004
6,003
W2
(Paid Cases Only)
29
27
22
26
Wisconsin Shares
Child Care
436
432
497
455
Marshall & Ilsley Bank
TABLE 12: UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS
PORTAGE COUNTY
TABLE 12
UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS
PORTAGE COUNTY
2009
Third Quarter
(Weekly Avg.)
2010 Percent
Third Quarter Change
(Weekly Avg.)
New Claims
284
275
-3.3
Total Claims
2541
2359
-7.2
Marshall & Ilsley Bank
TABLE 13: RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION
STEVENS POINT-PLOVER AREA
TABLE 13
RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION
STEVENS POINT - PLOVER AREA
Residential Permits Issued
Estimated Value of
New Homes
Number of Housing Units
Residential Alteration
Permits Issued
Estimated Value
of Alterations
2009
Third Quarter
2010 Percent
Third Quarter Change
34
24
-29.4
$6,857.9
(thousands)
$10,645.1
(thousands)
+55.2
74
25
-66.2
252
233
-7.5
$1,613.3
(thousands)
$2,237.7
(thousands)
+38.7
Marshall & Ilsley Bank
TABLE 14: NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION
STEVENS POINT-PLOVER AREA
TABLE 14
NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION
STEVENS POINT - PLOVER AREA
Number of Permits Issued
Estimated Value of
New Structures
Number of Business Alteration Permits
Estimated Value
of Business Alterations
2009
Third Quarter
2010
Third Quarter
7
2
$4,196.7
(thousands)
$310.0
(thousands)
53
55
$5,101.7
(thousands)
$2,777.2
(thousands)
* Includes Stevens Point, Village of Plover, and the Towns of Hull, Stockton, Sharon,
and Plover.
Marshall & Ilsley Bank
FIGURE 8: EMPLOYMENT LEVEL; PORTAGE COUNTY
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FIGURE 9: UNEMPLOYMENT LEVEL; PORTAGE COUNTY
Marshall & Ilsley Bank
FIGURE 10: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE; PORTAGE COUNTY
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FIGURE 11: LABOR FORCE; PORTAGE COUNTY
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TABLE 1: NATIONAL MEDIAN HOME PRICES
TABLE 1
NATIONAL MEDIAN
HOME PRICES
U.S
THIRD QUARTER 2010
NORTHEAST
MIDWEST
SOUTH
WEST
2006
$221,900
$271,900
$167,800
$183,700
$342,700
2007
219,000
279,100
165,100
179,300
335,000
2008
198,100
266,400
154,100
169,200
271,500
2009
172,500
240,500
144,100
153,000
211,100
2010 (Aug)
178,600
260,300
149,600
155,000
214,700
0.8%
7.6%
0.4%
-1.50%
-2.5%
VS. LAST YEAR
Marshall & Ilsley Bank
TABLE 2:NATIONAL EXISTING HOME SALES
TABLE 2
NATIONAL EXISTING
HOME SALES
U.S
THIRD QUARTER 2010
NORTHEAST
MIDWEST
SOUTH
WEST
2006
6,478,000
1,086,000
1,483,000
2,563,000
1,346,000
2007
5,652,000
1,006,000
1,327,000
2,235,000
1,084,000
2008
4,913,000
849,000
1,129,000
1,865,000
1,070,000
2009
5,156,000
868,000
1,163,000
1,914,000
1,211,000
2010 (Aug)
4,130,000
680,000
840,000
1,620,000
990,000
-19.0%
-24.4%
-26.3%
-13.4%
-16.1%
VS. LAST YEAR
Marshall & Ilsley Bank
TABLE 3: NATIONAL INVENTORY
TABLE 3
NATIONAL
INVENTORY
THIRD QUARTER 2010
INVENTORY MONTH SUPPLY
2006
3,450,000
6.5
2007
3,974,000
8.9
2008
3,700,000
10.4
2009
3,283,000
8.8
2010 (Aug)
3,982,000
11.6
1.5%
26.1%
VS. LAST YEAR
Marshall & Ilsley Bank
TABLE 4: NATIONAL AFFORDABILITY INDEX
TABLE 4
NATIONAL
AFFORDABILITY INDEX
THIRD QUARTER 2010
MEDIAN PRICED
MONTHLY PAYMENT MEDIAN
EXISTING SINGLE MORTGAGE P & I
AS A %
FAMILY QUALIFYING
FAMILY HOME
RATE
PAYMENT OF INCOME INCOME INCOME COMPOSITE
2007 r
217,900
6.52
1,104
21.7
61,173
52,992
115.4
2008 r
196,600
6.15
958
18.1
63,366
45,984
137.8
2009 r
172,100
5.14
751
14.6
61,845
36,048
171.6
2010 (Aug)
179,300
4.76
749
14.9
60,498
35,952
168.3
P&I = Principal and interest
Composite = measures affordability. For example for the year 2010, the index of 168.3 means a family earning the median family income has 168.3 percent of the income necessary
to qualify for a conventional loan covering 80 percent of a median-priced existing single-family home.
Marshall & Ilsley Bank
TABLE 5: LOCAL AREA MEDIAN PRICE
TABLE 5
LOCAL AREA
MEDIAN PRICE
THIRD QUARTER 2010
MARSHFIELD STEVENS POINT
WAUSAU
WIS RAPIDS
2006
$105,000
$132,250
$129,000
$85,000
2007
111,000
134,700
129,900
94,950
2008
110,000
135,000
125,000
84,450
2009
114,900
130,000
129,450
87,000
2010 (Sept)
111,500
132,750
119,450
87,500
Marshall & Ilsley Bank
TABLE 6: LOCAL UNITS SOLD
TABLE 6
LOCAL
UNITS SOLD
THIRD QUARTER 2010
MARSHFIELD STEVENS POINT
WAUSAU
WIS RAPIDS
2006
535
687
1,587
546
2007
569
656
1,511
482
2008
516
504
1,244
366
2009
530
528
1,164
430
2010 (Sept)
339
357
886
311
Marshall & Ilsley Bank
TABLE 7: LOCAL MEDIAN DAYS ON MARKET
TABLE 7
LOCAL MEDIAN
THIRD QUARTER 2010
DAYS ON MARKET MARSHFIELD STEVENS POINT
WAUSAU
WIS RAPIDS
2006
107
99
104
107
2007
119
97
102
95
2008
105
105
104
107
2009
115
99
116
131
2010 (Sept)
122
97
114
115
Marshall & Ilsley Bank
TABLE 8: SALES PRICE / LISTING PRICE
TABLE 8
SALES PRICE/
LISTING PRICE
THIRD QUARTER 2010
MARSHFIELD STEVENS POINT
WAUSAU
WIS RAPIDS
2006
96
97
98
95
2007
94
98
97
96
2008
93
96
96
98
2009
94
96
93
92
2010 (Sept)
94
96
96
97
Marshall & Ilsley Bank