Development Planning
Background
• Great Depression
• First Five-Year Industrialization Plan (1934-1939)
• Second Five-Year Industrialization Plan (1938-)
• War Years
• Menderes Years
• State Planning Organization (Development Plans) (Post-1960)
First Five-Year Industrialization Plan
• Initiated in 1934.
• Worked through Sumerbank and its cooperation with other state apparati.
• Affected from 30s zeitgeist.
• As a counter-measure for 1929 crisis.
Main Investment Lines
• a — Fabric Industry
• b — Mining Industry
• c — Paper Industry
• d — Chemical Industry
• e — Ceramic Industry
• Aimed at sustenance
Sumerbank
• Founded in 1933
• Handling State Economic Enterprises
• Planning for future investments
• Incentivizing private sector investments through credits, etc.
• Achieve sustainable human capital formation
• Given 45 million to accomplish said missions.
(Milyon T L . )
Mali
Toplam
Toplam
Borçlanmadan
Yıl
Gelir Borçlanma
Hasüat Harcamalar Önceki Açık
1930-31
196,3
46,7
243,0
210,1 13,8
1931-32
165,2
30,8
196,0
181,9 16,7
1932-33
182,5
3,1
185,6
174,0
1933-34
170,2
12,0
182,2
—
173,6 3,4
1934-35
195,0
17,9
212,9
202,1 7,1
1935-36
218,3
20,1
238,4
223,7 5,4
1936-37
250,8
30,6
281,4
260,3 9,5
1937-38
275,8
59,9
332,7
303,5 27,7
1938-39
266,9
63,6
330,5
311,1 44,2
1939-40
273,4
133,9
407,3
398,7 125,3
Second Five-Year Industrialization Plan
• 1938.
• Budget is 112 million.
• More of the previous.
• Couldn’t be implemented because of the war mobilization efforts.
State Planning Organization
• The State Planning Organization which was founded in 1960 was reorganized as the
Ministry of Development in June 2011 with Decree Law No. 641.
• Ministry of Development of the Republic of Turkey is an expert based organization
which plans and guides Turkey’s development process in a macro approach and
focuses on the coordination of policies and strategy development.
• To advise the government in determining Turkey’s economic, social and cultural
development policies
•
Development Plans
•
1963-1967
•
•
1968-1972
•
•
5th «5-year development plan»
1990-1994
•
•
4th «5-year development plan»
1985-1989
•
•
3th «5-year development plan»
1979-1983
•
•
2nd «5-year development plan»
1973-1977
•
•
1st «5-year development plan»
6th «5-year development plan»
1994 - onwards
Plans – Page Numbers
1077
699
665
535
375
319
221
253
212
101
1
1963-67
2
1968-72
3
1973-77
4
1979-83
5
1985-89
10
9
8
7
6
1990-94 1996-20002001-20052007-20132014-2018
Plans – Word Count
2500
2000
1500
1000
agriculture
industry
500
0
Plans – Word Count «Employment»
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1963-67
1968-72
1973-77
1979-83
1985-89
1990-94 1996-2000 2001-2005 2007-2013 2014-2018
1963-1967
1st «5-year development plan»
• 7% growth rate target
• Aim is increasing GDP
• Slowing down population growth
• Incentive for investment (tax-cut)
• Focus on saving
1963-1967
Estimated change in working areas
1963-1967
Investment
1963-1967
1963-1967
Agriculture still highly matters
1963-1967
Proof from Şevket Pamuk
1963-1967
Export- Import
1967-1972
2nd «5-year development plan»
• 7% growth rate target
• 14% investment growth target
• New point: control of capital inflow
• Switch from agriculture to industry
• Industry percentage in GDP aimed to increase 20,5 from 16,3
• Main focus on manifacturing industry
1967-1972
About Saving Targets of the first Plan
1967-1972
Estimated tax vs realized tax
1967-1972
Foreign Trade
• Lack of export
An example of production during this period
TOFAŞ
What is lack in TOFAŞ case?
• There is a lack of incentive to create better quality as there is no competition.
• There was an attempt to heavy industry but there was no chance to compete
with big car industries.
South Korea Example - Hyundai
• They could do saving by huge taxations and government subsidizes hundai in
the foreign market.
• Focusing specific infant indystry
Gross domestic savings (% of GDP)
35
South Korea
30
25
20
Turkey
15
10
5
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
0
1973-1977
3rd «5-year development plan»
• 9% GDP growth rate target
• Industry percentage in GDP aimed to increase 23 from 40
• Agricultural percentage in GDP aimed to decrease 10 from 28.
• New target: Switch from assembly industry to manufacturing industry
• «Gecekondu» and urbanization matters
1973-1977
urbanization
1973-1977
Export import
1979-1983
4th «5-year development plan»
• Manufacturing Industry is focus point again
• Democracy first time mentioned
• The previous plans are elaborated and criticized (following)
• Much more related to international economy (Turgut Özal influence)
1979-1983
1985-1989
5th «5-year development plan»
• Inlation matters a lot
• Free currency
• Macro economic targets are much more mentioned
1990-1994
6th «5-year development plan»
• Convertible Turkish Lira Deposite
• Turkish government guarantees, they will cover the losts caused by depreciation to
increase FDI
• Integration to EU matters
Overview of Plans
• different plans in differents terms have been influenced by current political
conjecture in Turkish politics.
• these plans do not only contend macroeconomic, financial, industrial, monetary
and fiscal goals, but also focus on and give importance to some moral and ethic
problems, youth problems, democratizing of everyday life structure, sport,
freemdom of religion and working conditions etc.
• Very detailed information
Bibliography
• Cumhuriyet gazetesi
• http://www.kalkinma.gov.tr/Lists/Kalknma%20Planlar/Attachments/9/plan1.pdf
• http://www.kalkinma.gov.tr/Lists/Kalknma%20Planlar/Attachments/8/plan2.pdf
• http://www.kalkinma.gov.tr/Lists/Kalknma%20Planlar/Attachments/7/plan3.pdf
• http://www.kalkinma.gov.tr/Lists/Kalknma%20Planlar/Attachments/6/plan4.pdf
• http://www.kalkinma.gov.tr/Lists/Kalknma%20Planlar/Attachments/5/plan5.pdf
• http://www.kalkinma.gov.tr/Lists/Kalknma%20Planlar/Attachments/4/plan6.pdf
• http://www.kalkinma.gov.tr/Lists/Kalknma%20Planlar/Attachments/3/plan7.pdf