How to create political will for change?
Contact: marc.saxer@fesindia.org
In a conservative political economy…
Status quo alliance
Discourse: Paradigm, Narrative, Metaphysical
Progressive Policy Initiatives
Institutions, rules and norms
… progressive policy initiatives often fail to be implemented.
Contact: marc.saxer@fesindia.org
Political economy
Paradigm:
Policy:
National Security
Development
Stop
Go
… if paradigms stay the same
Contact: marc.saxer@fesindia.org
The strategic trap:
In a hegemonic situation, policies can not be changed…
So why don’t we simply change the paradigm?
Status quo Coalition
Rainbow Coalition
SOCIALLY JUST,
RESILIENT AND
GREEN DYNAMIC
DEVELOPMENT
MODEL
GOOD SOCIETY
WITH FULL
CAPABILITIES FOR
ALL
Progressive Change Coalition
Change is not the outcome of a struggle between those who seek to
uphold the status quo and those who want change
Contact: marc.saxer@fesindia.org
EXCLUSIVE
SOCIETY WITH
PRIVILEGES FOR
THE ELITES
TRADITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT
MODEL
The Rainbow Coalition
… why does such a Rainbow Coalition not emerge?
Contact: marc.saxer@fesindia.org
So we need a broad societal change alliance…
… scaling up these isolated struggles into a broad societal
alliance is a hard-to-solve collective action problem
Contact: marc.saxer@fesindia.org
The isolation trap:
Those who want change are tribalized into small movements
with different interests and diverging priorities…
The technical trap
Decision-makers change quickly
and have vested interests …
Political Process
Policy
Implementation
Technocrats and academics who fail to give politically viable policy
options will be sidelined in the political process
Contact: marc.saxer@fesindia.org
Technical
Solution
Strategic Approach:
The political ground for policy changes needs to be prepared…
Excess
imagination
Redefinition of
expectations +
interests
Paradigm
shift
Change
narrative
Status quo
scenario
… on the paradigm level.
Contact: marc.saxer@fesindia.org
Policy
shift
Practical
vision
To generate political clout for the struggle over the
paradigm shift…
Change alliance
Good Society
Guide Policy
Making
Change agents
Model
Political
Will
Policy
Implementation
with full capabilities
for all
Change Narrative
… a comprehensive strategy is needed which combines
actors, ideas and resources
Contact: marc.saxer@fesindia.org
Reform
Compass
The medium which connects actors, ideas and
resources is language: the Discourse
Social Moral
Paradigms
Attitudes
Myths
Historical
Experience
s
Narratives
Perceptions
Definition of Interest
Contact: marc@fes-thailand.org
.
as a solution
1970s
Club of Rome at the fringe
Redistributive
Social Justice
as a problem
Growth
Technologydriven
Growth
De-growth
Market
State
Contact: marc.saxer@fesindia.org
as a solution
1980s
Environmental Protection resonates with more people
Marketdriven
Growth
as a problem
Growth
Redistribution
Social Justice
Environmental
DeProtection growth
Market
State
Contact: marc.saxer@fesindia.org
Market-driven
Growth
Third Way
Social Growth
Sustainable
Development
as a problem
Growth
as a solution
1990s
Sustainability moves closer to the center
Environmental
DeProtection
growth
Market
State
Contact: marc.saxer@fesindia.org
Market-driven
growth
Third Way
Growth
Sustainable
Development
as a problem
Growth
as a solution
2000s
Climate change builds first bridges,
but is dismissed as de-growth
Climate
Change
Market
Environmental DeProtection growth
State
Contact: marc.saxer@fesindia.org
Inclusive
Growth
Technology-driven
growth
Sustainable
Development
Green
New
Deal
as a problem
Growth
as a solution
2010s
Green New Deal occupies the center
and changes the paradigm
Climate
Change
Market
Environmental DeProtection growth
State
Contact: marc.saxer@fesindia.org
The discourse alliance makes a Grand Rainbow coalition
for change possible…
Capital :
Investment opportunities
Business models: decouple
production from resources
Social Inclusion :
Democratize political
economy, create universal
access to energy
Geopolitics :
Energy security
Cut carbon emissions,
transformation into
renewables
… a powerful coalition which can shift resources, legislation, consumption
patterns and ideology, and create momentum for change
Contact: marc.saxer@fesindia.org
Climate Change:
Where do we stand today?…
US
government
Green
NGOs
Green
Party
Greenpeace
Protestant
churches
Catholic
Church
Utilities
Enel
Investment
funds
Utilities
E.ON
Bank of
England
Italian
government
German
government
Rating
Agencies
Pension
Funds
Swedish
government
Spanish
government
Social
Democrats
German
Labor
Federation
...discourse alliance is forming, cross sector partnerships are
being built.
Contact: marc.saxer@fesindia.org
• In 2015, electricity from solar first time cheaper than all other energy
sources
• Bank of England / German government warn against “carbon bubble”
• Fossil industry stocks lose AAA ratings
• Pension Funds (largest investors in the world) shift portfolios
• G7 pledges end of carbon economy
• Germany is phasing out nuclear energy, legislates energy transformation
• Spain, Italy, Sweden and Portugal start to wind down coal
• Changing business plans: Utitilies giants E.On (Germany) and Enel (Italy) sell
all conventional power plants. Enel partners with Greenpeace — which has
previously been deeply critical of Enel's carbon footprint. Vattenfall
(Sweden) sells all conventional plants in Germany. RWE and EnBW
(Germany) announced that they are thinking of shifting their energy
generation towards renewable.
… the new paradigm discourse shifts resources and policies
Contact: marc.saxer@fesindia.org
By changing the interpretation, expectation and
definition of interests of actors…
Marketdriven
Growth
Make in India
Inclusive
Growth
Growth
as a solution
India 2015
as a problem
Redistribution
Social Justice
Happiness/
Sufficiency
Market
De-growth
State
Contact: marc.saxer@fesindia.org