lecture 1 : introduction this lecture aims to answer the following questions: •how different is IE from other engineering disciplines and from management? •what is the relationship between IE, OR and management science ? •what is IE work about? •who needs systems thinking and why? •what is systems thinking? Spring 2011 - ÇG IE 398 - Lecture 1 1 Mission of the METU-IE Department Mission The IE Department studies organised human activity and educates engineers capable of creating value in socio-technical systems. Our work is founded on critical reason and systems thinking and on strong quantitative analysis. Our approach emphasizes identifying and structuring issues and formulating problems, as much as it seeks to develop and implement effective courses of action. Spring 2011 - ÇG IE 398 - Lecture 1 2 some definitions • inquiry is any process that has the aim of augmenting knowledge, resolving doubt, or solving a problem; • research is a kind of inquiry that can be defined as the search for knowledge, or as any systematic investigation, with an open mind, to establish new facts, using a scientific method • methods tell us how to use techniques in inquiry, for example – an optimisation method that uses differentiation techniques – a work study method using motion and time measurements • a methodology is the study of methods that are applied in inquiry; it tells us how to use various methods together • systems thinking studies methodologies from a systemic perspective; it tells us how to apply them effectively in inquiry Spring 2011 - ÇG IE 398 - Lecture 1 3 METHODS: (theory) SYSTEMS THINKING (application) • disciplinary inquiry: ─ engineering ─ management ─ economics, etc • quantitative methods and mathematical modelling: ─ optimisation ─ stochastic processes ─ statistics, etc • hard systems thinking, ₋ hard OR • soft systems thinking ─ soft OR ─ Chekland’s SSM ─ SODA ─ SAST, etc. IE/OR practice Spring 2011 - ÇG IE 398 - Lecture 1 4 • systems thinking provides the basis for IE practice; it is a prerequisite for making sense of human activity, for structuring issues and for defining problems • without a good conception of systems, the link from quantitative analysis to management practice will not be complete; designs will not work out as planned and attempts for improvement will fail • systems thinking contains and complements disciplinary thinking, ie. traditional scientific thinking in such areas as biology, physics, management and OR Spring 2011 - ÇG IE 398 - Lecture 1 5 • ST is specially important in OR/IE and an adequate coverage is not possible without dedicated courses • attempts to teach systems thinking by dispersing systems ideas throughout the curriculum does not work very well; it can also weaken the learning of disciplinary content • this course seeks to remove the deficiency in the systems foundation of the IE curriculum by studying systems thinking on its own Spring 2011 - ÇG IE 398 - Lecture 1 6 what is IE work about? • IE seeks to improve organised human activity • organised human activity takes place in organisations which can be defined as human activity systems • human activity systems are social systems • there is always one or several technical systems embedded in all human activity systems • for this reason, human activity systems are also known as socio-technical systems • all engineering work has a social context, but non-IE engineers can focus primarily on technical aspects, • IE’s have to focus on both the social and the technical aspects of human activity systems Spring 2011 - ÇG IE 398 - Lecture 1 7 how different is IE from other engineering disciplines ? • engineers are concerned with goal seeking systems that can be assumed closed • can you give some examples for closed systems? • such systems can be put into a laboratory and studied in isolation from the environment • in the laboratory, the system can be analysed by reducing it to its parts, since it is easier to understand the parts than it is to understand the whole system • thus analysis can provide knowledge and understanding of a closed system Spring 2011 - ÇG IE 398 - Lecture 1 8 • IE is concerned with purposeful systems that are open, ie. that cannot be assumed closed • a purposeful system is an organisation with goal seeking individuals • why can’t a purposeful system be assumed closed? • goals can change from person to person and also from time to time • open systems do not fit into laboratories • understanding an open system will not be possible through analysis only Spring 2011 - ÇG IE 398 - Lecture 1 9 • analysis of an open system reveals its structure and how it works; its product is knowledge, not understanding • to understand an open system we need to look at the larger system of which it is a part, this is the central idea of systems thinking • hence systems thinking includes and complements analysis in this way • this is how OR/IE differs from other engineering disciplines and from disciplinary science Spring 2011 - ÇG IE 398 - Lecture 1 10 IE – OR – MS • OR provides the scientific basis of IE • the mathematical models and techniques used by IE are primarily OR models and techniques • in the past, IE was more concerned with the engineering applications of OR • IE now deals with almost all applications of OR, alongside traditional engineering • MS is another term for OR Spring 2011 - ÇG IE 398 - Lecture 1 11 who needs systems thinking ? as we already said before, IE learning has dual objectives: • mastering quantitative analysis and mathematical modelling (OR, probability theory, statistics, economics etc) • building systems thinking skills in order to put this knowledge into effective use Spring 2011 - ÇG IE 398 - Lecture 1 12 what is systems thinking ? five real-life examples from the text-book that need ST: 1. an emergency services call centre • answering, recording and checking calls • providing fast response • balancing costs and waiting times • difficulty in evaluating response rate a queueing, or waiting line problem Spring 2011 - ÇG IE 398 - Lecture 1 13 2. vehicle scheduling • varying pick-up/delivery times • there are time-windows for deliveries • labour rules • capacity and congestion restrictions • 20! = 2 432 902 000 000 000 000 possible itineraries for 20 points of delivery what is best; least time, least distance, least cost ? Spring 2011 - ÇG IE 398 - Lecture 1 14 3. writing a mission statement • should be relevant and meaningful • achievable with measurable goals and targets • active cooperation and participation must be secured • often involves conflicts and compromises • lengthy canvassing and negotiations needed soft OR; problem structuring Spring 2011 - ÇG IE 398 - Lecture 1 15 4. the “Deep Cove” project • • • an environmentally responsible economic project to transport tail race water no permanent residence in the sound, reduced tanker speed, rubbish removal etc. but there will be other ecological risks: − − − − − increased salination faster mixing of fresh and salt water risk of spills risk of introducing pests and poaching etc. conflicting objectives, MCDM Spring 2011 - ÇG IE 398 - Lecture 1 16 5. screening for breast cancer • • • early treatment of growths is possible incidence rises with age 95% chance of cure if detected at preinvasive phase • mammography effective 85% of the time • costs $200 000-$300 000 per machine; $50$100 per screening etc. what is the best screening policy ? how do we balance costs and human suffering ? Spring 2011 - ÇG IE 398 - Lecture 1 17 common features of these situations: – a complex problem situation where it is not clear • what the problem is, and • what we mean by a solution – incomplete information – situation conceived as a system; meaning that a system is, • not an ontological entity, ie. something that exists out there, in itself, independently of us – (ontology is a branch of metaphysics that studies the nature and existence of reality) • but it is an epistemological entity, ie. a mental construct that is inside us – (epistemology is a branch of metaphysics that studies the nature of knowledge about reality) Spring 2011 - ÇG IE 398 - Lecture 1 18 – the situation requires a systems thinking methodology such as: • hard OR, or • soft OR – all these situations involve gaining knowledge about a human activity system and all such knowledge is heavily meaning loaded and experience based – knowledge in such situations is gained in what Checkland (1) calls the experience – action cycle: Spring 2011 - ÇG IE 398 - Lecture 1 19 Spring 2011 - ÇG IE 398 - Lecture 1 20 “systems thinking is to formulate some systems relevant to aspects of perceived reality that is of interest and then to use the systems in a methodology to find out about, or gain insight to, or engineer some of the world outside” the following figure from Checkland (1) summarises the difference between the two perspectives: -----------------------------------------------------------------(1) Checkland P.,J. Scholes Soft Systems Methodology in Action, Wiley 1990 Spring 2011 - ÇG IE 398 - Lecture 1 21 Spring 2011 - ÇG IE 398 - Lecture 1 22 concepts of cognition (ie. knowing) and learning • to learn (or to know) is to acquire: • data: symbols representing objects, events and their properties • information: useful data; answers: who?, what?, where?, when? (data and information are the result of observations ) • knowledge : know-how; answers: how? (knowledge is the result of experience) • understanding and explanation : answers: why? (a mistake that can be explained by identifying what produced it is said to be understood) of reality, which – “exists in itself” – “out there” – “independently of us” Spring 2011 - ÇG IE 398 - Lecture 1 23 • to learn is also to acquire • wisdom: the ability to perceive and evaluate the long-run consequences of behaviour about truth, which – includes reality – and is part of us • data/information/knowledge/understanding contribute mainly to efficiency, to “doing things right” • wisdom contributes mainly to effectiveness, to “doing the right thing” • while growth can occur without wisdom, development cannot Spring 2011 - ÇG IE 398 - Lecture 1 24 • training is the transmission of knowledge • intelligence is the ability to acquire knowledge • education: is the transmission of understanding and wisdom • adaptation is learning under changing conditions • learning – does not result from doing something right – but it can result, through feedback, from doing something wrong; from making: • errors of comission, ie. doing something that should not have been done • errors of omission, ie. not doing something that should have been done Spring 2011 - ÇG IE 398 - Lecture 1 25