Kelvin Leibold Farm & Ag Business Management Field Specialist ISU Hardin County Extension 524 Lawler Iowa Falls, IA 50126 (641) 648-4850 kleibold@iastate.edu www.extension.iastate.edu/ Costs and Returns from Grain Storage 90 million gallon corn ethanol plant Hog confinement facility with 3,300 head capacity with deep pit / full slats Golden Oval Eggs, Thompson, IA Iowa Ethanol Production in Million Gallons Million gallons Iowa Ethanol 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 Iowa Corn used for ethanol - million bu. 62 Planned + current in Iowa 11 Just across the borders * * * * * * HowardWinnesh Osceola * DickensonEmmet * Mitchell * WinnebagoWorth Allamakee iek * O’Brien Clay Palo * Kosuth Hancoc * Floyd Sioux* * * *Chickasaw Fayette CerroGordo * Alto k Clayton Humbol Cherokee * BuenaV*ista Pocahontas dt* *Wright Franklin Butler Bremer Plymouth * * * * BlackHawk Buchana Delawa Hamilton * * Woodbury Webster * Hardin Ida re ** Grundy n *Sac Calhoun * * Lyon Tama Monona Crawford Carroll Greene * Boone * * * * Harrison Shelby Audubon Guthrie Mills * Fremont Montgomery *Page * Adams * Jasper * Union Clarke Linn Jackson Jones * ** ** * Poweshiek Johnson Cedar Iowa * Mucatine Madis Warren on Adair Cass Marshal l Dalla Polk s * Pottawattamie * Story r Benton n Dubuque Marion Mahask Keokuk a Lucas Monroe Taylor Ringgold Decatur Wayne Appanoose *Wapello Davis * Scott * Clinton n Washington Jefferson Louisa Henry * DesMoines VanBuren Lee * * Iowa Corn Processing & Ethanol Plant Locations, Actual & Planned., 8/22/06 Data are from Terry Francel at AFBF, Press releases, and Renewable Fuels Association Number of ethanol plants 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Renewable Fuels Association US Corn used in Ethanol Production – million bushels Today ≈ 2 billion bu. Source: Dr. R Wisner Source: Dr. R Wisner Needed Yld. @ current Acres Source: Dr. R Wisner Importers or Exporters ??? • • • • • • • • Yield Acres Location Time of year New Demand Old Buyers – rail Crop Mix – no longer 50/50 New Livestock – beef, dairy, pork Future of livestock No man is an Island, entire of itself; every man is a piece of the Continent, John Donne(1572 - 1631), Meditation XVII http://www.card.iastate.edu/ag_risk_tools/basis_maps Source: Dr. R Wisner Seasonal Price Movements in Iowa Corn Prices, 1990-2005 235 230 225 220 215 210 g Au l Ju n Ju M ay Ap r M ar Fe b Ja n De c No v Oc t 205 Pre-harvest sales opportunities? If you pre-sell grain for fall delivery some of the storage issues disappear! Storage may allow you to capture premiums for grain in pre-harvest sales. How large will these premiums be in 3 years? What is Carry? Carrying charges are the difference between futures delivery months (e.g. December and July) CBOT Dec,July Corn Futures 1990-2006 All were positive years Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Ave. Dec 10/15 July 10/15 2.28 2.46 2.10 2.49 2.18 3.28 2.87 2.90 2.27 1.99 2.07 2.06 2.54 2.17 2.07 2.04 3.17 2.41 2.47 2.67 2.29 2.63 2.41 3.33 3.01 3.07 2.50 2.23 2.32 2.32 2.66 2.31 2.31 2.31 3.34 2.60 Dec/Jul Carry 0.19 0.21 0.19 0.15 0.23 0.05 0.14 0.17 0.23 0.23 0.25 0.26 0.12 0.15 0.24 0.27 0.16 0.19 CBOT Nov, July Soybean Futures 1990-2006 Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Ave. Nov 10/15 6.14 5.48 5.35 6.15 5.39 6.57 6.93 7.05 5.56 4.92 4.65 4.29 5.48 7.30 5.14 5.90 5.89 5.77 July 10/15 6.60 5.89 5.64 6.34 5.74 6.87 6.86 7.29 5.90 5.21 5.01 4.46 5.52 6.66 5.39 6.17 6.31 5.98 Nov/Jul Carry 0.46 0.40 0.29 0.20 0.35 0.30 (0.06) 0.25 0.34 0.29 0.36 0.26 0.04 (0.64) 0.25 0.28 0.42 0.21 Corn Dec 27, FC Delivery Month Bid Basis Op Mth Futures Delivery Date Oct/Nov 2006 2.97 -0.35 Z 3.325 2006-11-30 Dec 2006 3.03 -0.29 Z 3.325 2006-12-31 Jan 2007 3.06 -0.38 H 3.445 2007-01-31 Mar 2007 3.11 -0.33 H 3.445 2007-03-31 May 2007 3.18 -0.34 K 3.52 2007-05-31 Jul 2007 3.23 -0.34 N 3.575 2007-07-31 Oct 2008 2.96 -0.42 Z 3.3825 2007-10-31 Corn Delivery Month VeraSun Energy Oct 27 Basis Op Mth Futures Delivery Date Oct/Nov 2006 2.98 -0.35 Z 3.325 2006-11-30 Dec 2006 3.03 -0.30 Z 3.325 2006-12-31 Jan 2007 3.07 -0.38 H 3.445 2007-01-31 Mar 2007 3.13 -0.32 H 3.445 2007-03-31 May 2007 3.19 -0.33 K 3.52 2007-05-31 Jul 2007 3.21 -0.37 N 3.575 2007-07-31 Oct 2008 2.88 -0.50 Z 3.3825 2007-10-31 Bid Difference in Basis VS FC Difference Oct/Nov 2006 -0.35 -0.35 .00 Dec 2006 -0.30 -0.29 .01 Jan 2007 -0.38 -0.38 .00 Mar 2007 -0.32 -0.33 -.01 May 2007 -0.33 -0.34 -.01 Jul 2007 -0.37 -0.34 -.03 Oct 2008 -0.50 -0.42 -.08 Webster County Basis Corn Soybeans www.card.iastate.edu Cash VS FC Difference Oct/Nov 2006 2.98 2.97 .01 Dec 2006 3.03 3.03 .00 Jan 2007 3.07 3.06 .01 Mar 2007 3.13 3.11 .02 May 2007 3.19 3.18 .01 Jul 2007 3.21 3.23 -.02 Oct 2008 2.88 2.96 -.08 Off-farm Corn Storage Costs 8 months • • • • • Extra shrink to 14% Extra drying to 14% Interest @ 8% Handling Storage Total $0.04 0.04 0.16 0.00 0.225 0.465 Will storage pay? • • • • Will the carry improve more than normal? How is basis going to impact this? How much will storage cost? Who is building the storage now and who is going to build? • What will they charge? Off-farm Corn Storage Costs 8 months • • • • • Extra shrink to 14% Extra drying to 14% Interest @ 8% Handling Storage Total $0.04 0.04 0.16 0.00 0.225 0.465 Factors Encouraging More On-Farm Storage • • • • Specialty/Identity Preserved Crops Larger Trucks – Easier Grain Transport Harvest Time Bottleneck Concerns New demand and carry ???? The Cost of Storing Grain Adapted from materials developed by Daniel M. O’Brien Extension Agricultural Economist Northwest Kansas What Storage Costs to Consider? Annual decisions to store grain are based only on covering VARIABLE storage costs and potential drying costs if a factor If VARIABLE costs of storage can be covered THEN grain should be stored Regardless of whether FIXED costs are covered Relevant to EXISTING Grain Storage Facilities Handling INTEREST Cost on Unsold Grain When Should Fixed Storage Costs be Considered? Fixed Costs should be considered when deciding whether or not to actually build NEW GRAIN STORAGE facilities Before construction, ALL Grain Storage Facility costs are VARIABLE The cost NEW GRAIN STORAGE facilities should be compared to Commercial Storage Costs Variable Farm Grain Storage Costs Study by Dhuyvetter, et al. KSU 2000 Conveyance: Cost of Tractor used on Auger Aeration: $0.01 /bu Insecticide: Bin wall spray, protectant, fumigant Interest Cost (# 12 months) x (% interest) x (Harvest $) Shrinkage [1% Shrink + (#months x 0.1%)] x (Harvest $) Corn Variable Farm Storage $$ $3 Harvest Corn, 6 Months, Less Drying Bin A: 12500 bu Bin B: 25000 bu Bin C: 50000 bu Conveyance $0.002 $0.002 $0.002 Aeration $0.010 $0.010 $0.010 Insecticide $0.040 $0.020 $0.010 Repairs (1.5% Investment) $0.024 $0.023 $0.019 Interest: $3/bu, 6 mo, 7.5% $0.115 $0.115 $0.115 Shrinkage: 1.6% shrink $0.048 $0.048 $0.048 $0.24 $0.22 $0.20 Variable Cost / bu Variable Cost / bu Corn Variable Farm Storage $$ 3 Farm Bin Sizes, $2 /bu Corn @ Harvest $0.25 $0.23 $0.20 $0.20 $0.17 $0.14 $0.15 $0.11 $0.16 $0.13 $0.10 $0.05 $0.19 $0.11 $0.08 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Months 12500 bu 25000 bu 50000 bu Corn Interest/Variable Storage $$ 25,000 bu Bin, $2 /bu @ Harvest Variable Cost / bu 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.05 0.00 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Months 25,000 bu Bin Variable Interest Cost 25,000 bu Bin Other Variable Costs June July Fixed Farm Grain Storage Costs: Individual Bin Initial Fixed Investment 3 Grain Bin Investment Examples 12500 bu, 25000 bu, & 50000 bu capacities 20 year life Conveyance Equipment (Augers, etc) $0.10 /bu storage, 20 year life Other Costs $0.05 /bu storage Fixed Farm Storage Costs Initial Investment in Individual Bins Bin A: Bin B: Bin C: 12500 bu 25000 bu 50000 bu Upfront Grain Bin Investment (20 yr life) Conveyance Equipment (20 yr life) Other Equipment $18,500 $25,000 $1,250 $34,250 $42,500 $3,425 $625 $1,712 $56,500 $62,500 $5,000 $13,000 $2,500 (10 yr life) Total Investment $20,375 $38,000 $64,000 Fixed Farm Grain Storage Costs: Annual Fixed Costs Bin Depreciation Bin Investment 20 year useful bin life Interest Cost Based on government subsidized loan rate & ½ the grain bin investment Taxes & Insurance 0.7% of Initial Investment Fixed Farm Storage Costs Annual Fixed Cost for Individual Bins Bin A: Bin B: Bin C: 12500 bu 25000 bu 50000 bu Annual Grain Bin Depreciation (20 yr life) Interest Cost (7.5%) Taxes & Insurance $0.084 $0.078 $0.067 $0.061 $0.011 $0.057 $0.011 $0.048 $0.009 $0.1560 $0.1460 $0.1240 (0.7% of Investment Cost) Annual Fixed Cost/bu Note: $60,000 expense with after tax loan 50% bracket = 6¢/ bu. pmt. Corn Fixed & Total Storage $$ 3 Farm Bin Sizes, $2 /bu @ Harvest $0.40 $0.38 Total Cost / bu $0.35 $0.33 $0.30 $0.30 $0.27 $0.32 $0.29 $0.26 $0.20 $0.23 $0.20 $0.16 $0.15 $0.12 $0.10 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Months 12.5K bu TC 12.5K bu FC 25K bu TC 25K bu FC 50K bu TC 50K bu FC Corn Commercial vs Farm Storage Variable Cost / bu $2 /bu Corn @ Harvest, 25,000 bu Farm Bin $0.40 $0.30 Breakeven Farm TC & Commercial TC @ 8 1/2 mo (June) $0.20 $0.10 Breakeven Farm VC & Commercial TC @ 3 mo (January) $0.00 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Months 25000 bu Bin VC 25000 bu Bin TC Commercial Storage TC For NEW Grain Storage Facilities: All costs are VARIABLE before construction of bins/storage facilities TOTAL per unit cost (VARIABLE + FIXED) should be considered in the decision New ON-FARM STORAGE is generally MORE COSTLY than COMMERCIAL STORAGE for periods up to 8-9 months for the major commodities The Six Challenges 1. Harvest Cost or Storage Cost 2. Drying Benefit 3. “Carry in the market” + “Basis Improvement 4. Incomes Taxes and Cost of $$$ 5. Market Taker or Market Maker 6. Other Choices – commercial, condo Harvest Cost or Storage Cost Specialty / Identity Preserved Crops Larger Trucks – Easier Grain Transport Harvest Time Bottleneck Concerns Need to keep the combines rolling New demand and carry ???? Drying Bottleneck – create or solve Cost of drying- 4¢/pt.? Shrink factors – 1.4%? Moisture level 17% Blending capabilities Mechanics – location, access, capacity, design, electricity Factors to consider Site location Drying needs Expansion options Cost of capital Tax issues Carry and Basis Does historical data reflect the future? If basis would go positive would it impact the return for storage? Difference in Basis Oct.27, 2006 VS FC Difference Oct/Nov 2006 -0.35 -0.35 .00 Dec 2006 -0.30 -0.29 .01 Jan 2007 -0.38 -0.38 .00 Mar 2007 -0.32 -0.33 -.01 May 2007 -0.33 -0.34 -.01 Jul 2007 -0.37 -0.34 -.03 Oct 2008 -0.50 -0.42 -.08 Cash VS FC Difference Oct/Nov 2006 2.98 2.97 .01 Dec 2006 3.03 3.03 .00 Jan 2007 3.07 3.06 .01 Mar 2007 3.13 3.11 .02 May 2007 3.19 3.18 .01 Jul 2007 3.21 3.23 -.02 Oct 2008 2.88 2.96 -.08 Market Taker or Market Maker Volume premiums - ¢¢ Quality Premiums- ¢¢ Utilizing labor and equipment – hired help and semis - ¢¢ Grain Trader – have semi will travel - ¢¢¢¢¢¢ Posted Price??? Owning paper versus owning commodity Tax Issues Producer can Sec. 179 Placed in service Grain bins are MACRS 7 year property 10% state, 15% FICA, 25% Fed If in the zero bracket it’s harder to pay for! Cost of Money Higher priced grain means higher opportunity cost to store each bushel. You can still “seal grain” but the savings are not near the value it is with prices below loan rates. FSA does have a loan program for storage up to $100,000 at competitive rates. Other Choices – commercial, condo Years to retirement Location Size of structures Safety TX, AZ, FL Condo Storage Easy way to expand storage Can turn the storage several times a year Cost may be less than own storage construction costs May be easier to resell or transfer ownership Professionally managed Condo Storage Annual maintenance fee – taxes, electricity Limits on tax credits Unknown life and salvage value Bottleneck – create or prevent May limit where you sell (basis, pricing tools, etc.) Review the fine print Commercial Storage Has offered value in the past; will continue Professionally managed Going to build; not concrete Going to see interesting marriages?? Going to export corn unless USA becomes a major importer Factors to consider Commercial vs. On-Farm Storage Costs Availability of commercial storage Market flexibility – several competitive markets Preserving grain identity Bottlenecks within the system – hauling distance, lines Transportation costs / savings Blending capabilities Web sites to review http://www.agecon.ksu.edu/kdhuyvetter/Spreadsheets/ On-farm%20storage.xls $$$$ http://www.ag.ndsu.nodak.edu/abeng/postharvest.htm http://www.bae.umn.edu/extens/postharvest/ http://www.abe.iastate.edu/fileadmin/www.abe.iastate.e du/research/wetcorn2.xls $$$$ http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/fasttools/index.html $$$$$ C:\FILES\FILES\Storage costs2.xls ESTIMATING GRAIN STORAGE COSTS Crop: Note: enter values in highlighted cells. See notes at bottom. 1. Commercial storage charge (off-farm , only) -base fee -months paid by base fee - monthly charge thereafter 0.10 $/bu. 3 months 0.025 $/bu./mo. $ Nov 0.100 Dec corn Jan Feb Mar Apr May June $ 0.025 $ 0.025 $ 0.025 $ 0.025 0.005 $ 0.005 $ 0.005 $ 0.005 $ 0.005 $ July Aug Sept $ 0.025 $ 0.025 $ 0.025 $ 0.025 2. Fixed costs for on-farm storage (blank for existing storage) 1.33 $/bu. capacity 6.0% % $ $ $ 0.040 0.053 0.040 $ 0.133 $ $ 0.040 0.053 $/bu./month $ 0.005 % $ 0.023 $/bu. $ 0.020 $/bu. % $ 0.013 2 % points 0.02 $/point/bu. 1.18 % 4. Electricity cost $ 0.005 (on-farm, only) 5. Quality loss and spoilage 1 (on-farm, only) 6. Extra handling cost 0.02 (on-farm, only) 7. Interest cost -harvest-time cash price $ 2.25 -interest rate on operating $ 7.00% 8. Interest saved on income tax postponement -marginal income tax rate 40% (blank for pre-tax costs, only) $ 0.005 $ $ 0.013 $ 0.013 0.013 $ 0.013 $ 0.013 $ 0.013 $ 0.013 $ 0.013 $ 0.013 $ 0.013 $ (0.063) % 9. Total storage cost for commercial -monthly cost -cumulative cost $/bu. $/bu. $ $ Nov 0.21 0.21 $ $ Dec 0.01 0.22 $ $ Jan Feb (0.05) $ 0.04 0.17 $ 0.21 $ $ Mar 0.04 0.25 $ $ Apr 0.04 0.28 $ $ May 0.04 0.32 $ $ June 0.04 0.36 $ $ July 0.04 0.40 $ $ Aug 0.04 0.44 $ $ Sept 0.04 0.47 8. Total storage cost for on-farm -monthly cost -cumulative cost $/bu. $/bu. $ $ Nov 0.15 0.29 $ $ Dec 0.02 0.30 $ $ Jan Feb (0.04) $ 0.02 0.26 $ 0.28 $ $ Mar 0.02 0.30 $ $ Apr 0.02 0.31 $ $ May 0.02 0.33 $ $ June 0.01 0.35 $ $ July 0.01 0.36 $ $ Aug 0.01 0.37 $ $ Sept 0.01 0.38 1. Commercial storage charge. Enter a base fee if there is a minimum charge for commercial storage. Enter the monthly charge for storage beyond the period covered by the base fee. Leave this blank for on-farm storage. $0.40 Commercial On-farm 3. Some spoilage and quality loss may be experienced w ith on-farm storage. $0.30 $0.20 4. For on-farm storage, enter the variable costs for extra handling into and out of storage. $0.10 A ug Ju ly M ay Ju ne ar M n Ja Fe b D ec 6. When sales are delayed beyond January 1, they are not taxed until the follow ing year. Interest can be earned on the funds that w ould have been used to pay the tax. The marginal tax rate should include federal income, state income, and self-employment taxes. $N ov 5. There is an interest cost for delaying cash receipts that could earn interest or be used to pay off loans. A pr 2. Storage may require additional drying to avoid spoilage. This often results in some dry matter loss due to shrinkage. Shrink factors of .0125 or .015 % for each point of moisture removed are commonly used for corn. Grain Storage Costs--Cumulative $ per bushel $0.50 t 3. Extra drying to store, and shrinkage -points of extra drying -variable cost per point -shrink factor $ Se p -investment for new storage -interest rate on investment -interest cost per year -depreciation cost (25 years) -repairs and maintenance (3%) Web sites to review Drying cost calculator $$$$$ http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/xls/a120dryingcostcalculator.xls Cost of storing grain http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/xls/a2-33.xls http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/fasttools/index.html $$$$$ Factors to consider Commercial vs. On-Farm Storage Costs Availability of commercial storage Market flexibility – several competitive markets Preserving grain identity Bottlenecks within the system – hauling distance, lines, dryers, logistics Transportation costs / savings Blending capabilities Questions or Comments Grain Storage Costs--Cumulative $ per bushel $0.50 $0.40Commercial $0.30On-farm $0.20 $0.10 Fe b M ar A pr M ay Ju ne Ju ly A ug Se pt n Ja D ec N ov $- Run your own numbers What should we be doing for you? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.