POWER SUPPLY FOR
EUROPE:
How Sustainable Can It Be ?
Prof. Dr. PETER NOVAK
Dean, School of Tehnology and Systems,
SLOVENIA
1EES, Nicosia 2007
Power supply in Europe
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Outline
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CLIMATE CHANGE and POWER
POWER NEEDS IN EU
SOLAR POWER
CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES
NORTH AFRICA RESOURCES
DESIGN CONCEPT
ECONOMICS
HOW TO START?
CONCLUSIONS
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Sir Stern introduction of the Review
“The Economics of Climate Change”
1. GHG emissions are an externality
2. When poeple do not pay for the consequences of their actions we have
market failure
3. Present development is the greatest market failure the world has ever seen
4. It is an externality that goes beyond those of ordinary cogestion or pollution
5. This externality is different in 4 key ways, it is:
1. global
2. long term
3. Involves risks and uncertainties
4. and potentially involves major and irreversible change
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Energy and GHG emissions- world
65%
45%
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ELECTRICITY IN SOCIETY
• ELECTRICITY is a basic final energy need for each
society
• Electricity production/consumption GROWTH in the
world in last 30 years (1972 -2002) was 5,6% with yearly
additions of 343 TWh/y (2006 total: ~ 17.426 TWh/y)
• Electricity CONSUMPTION pro capita in 2002 in the
world varies extremely and lies between 27 kWh/cap in
Etiopia and 27.764 kWh/cap on Iceland (1: 1000)
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EU ENERGY CASE
TPE use in 2006: ~ 1 637 mio toe
TPE import: 56%
Electricity consumption 2006: 3 178,6 TWh/y (18% of world consumption)
Expected newly installed capacities to 2030 for replacement and to
cover the expected growth : ~ 370 GW
(~ 15 000 MW/yr trough 24 years !!!!)
Investment: ~ 370 -400 Bn €
EU Policy: 20 to 20 – 20% les emission of GHG to 2020
Solutions: energy conservations, nuclear, solar
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ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN EU
Predicted installed capacity of different generating
capacities in 15 EU states (GW)*
2000
Nuclear
136.4
Coal and Lignite
166.1
Open Cycle multi-fired 68.7
Open Cycle IPP
33.1
GTCC
59
Small GT
25.2
Clean Coal and Lignite 0.5
Biomass-Waste
4.4
Fuel Cells
0
Hydro-Renewables 119.2
TOTALS
612.6
2010
135.1
101.1
60.2
25
208.7
45.2
3.4
4.7
0
133.7
717.1
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*The Liberalizations of Europe's Electricity Markets –pg.12, 2000
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117.2
36.9
122.3
20.5
305
79.2
26.6
6
0
158
871.7
2030
45.6
9.5
244.6
15.1
354.3
96.6
37
6.5
1.3
170.7
981.2
growth %
- 66,5 ??
- 94,3 ??
256
- 54,4
500,5 ??
283,3 ??
7300 !!!
47,7
--43,2
60,2
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EU FUEL FOR ELECTRICITY
,
Not sustainable solution
Predicted Fuel Use in EU for Electricity Production*
1600
1400
TWh
1200
1000
800
?
1995
2030
600
400
200
0
*Production of Electricity by energy Form, European Union Energy Outlook to 2020
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EU CO2 EMISSIONS
CO2 emmisions due to electricity production
Million Tons
1600
~ 46% of total
emissions of CO2
1400
1200
?
Total emission of CO2
in 2002:
EU 15: 2,6 Gt
1000
800
EU 25: 3,1 Gt
600
How to come down ?
400
200
0
1990
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1995
2010
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2020
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EU RE TARGET
Renewable Electricity Production Targets In the EU White Paper[1].
Actual in 1995
Type of Energy
TWh
Total
2,366
Projection for 2010
%Total
TWh
% Total
2,870
Pre -Kyoto
Wind
4
0.2
80
2.8
Total Hydro
307
13
355
12.4
Photovoltaic’s
0.03
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3
0.1
Biomass
22.5
0.95
230
8.0
Geothermal
3.5
0.15
7
0.2
Total Renewable Energies
Instaled power (Cf~0,44)
GW
337
14.3
675
23.5
87,3
New generating capacity: fossil fuel to 2010
to 2030
1] White Paper, table 3, page 50
[
174,8
+ 64%
+87,5 GW
104,5 GW*
368,6 GW*
* 50 % new, 50 % replacement
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ENERGY SYSTEM
CAN WE CHANGE THE ENERGY
SYSTEM?
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ENERGY SYSTEM FOR
ENERGY SYSTEM FOR
UN-SUSTAINABLE
SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
DEVELOPMENT 2
- Minimum 6 energy carriers
-Large emissions of : NOX,
CO, CO2, particulates
- Fossil fuels interdependency
- Supply un-security
- Limited life time of resources
WORLD EMISSIONS OF CO2
IN 2005 :
~ 42 ÷ 44 Gt /yr
LIQUID FUEL
LPG
BIOMASS
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ENERGY SYSTEM FOR
SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
Advatages:
- Only 3 energy carriers ( gas,
liquid, electricity) universally
applicable
- Renevable electricity
- Methane: CH4 Natural/synthetic
gas
- Methanol: CH4OH – oxidized
liquid fuel
- Almost no change of
infrastructure
- C from biomas, H from water
GHG EMISSIONS IN YEAR
2050 ÷ 2100
~ 0 CO2
GEOTHERMAL
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SOLAR ENERGY
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AVAILABLE EVERYWHERE
LOW DENSITY
INTERMITTENT
TECHNOLOGIES IN DEVELOPMENT
SCALE ECONOMICS
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DIRECT SOLAR IRRADIATION on the world map
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Solar energy availability
SOLAR PV ELECTRICITY
Artistic view of PV power plant
in desert region – with water
pumping for agriculture
PV potencial world map –
Sahara is leader with 315 000 TWh/yr
In EU 25 2007 consumtion:~ 3180 TWh/y
1/100 part
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POWER FROM AFRICA FOR EUROPE
(SAHARA DESERT)
• WHAT KIND OF ENERGY:
– ELECTRICITY
– SOLAR SIN-FUEL
• ADVANTAGES:
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ZERO EMISSION
USE OF THE SUN BELT
RENEWABLE ENERGY
USE OF NO ARABLE LAND
• DISADVANTAGES:
–
–
–
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TECHNOLOGY IN DEVELOPMENT
INVESTMENT COSTS
DISTANCE
POLITICAL ISSUE (ENERGY DEPENDENCY)
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RELIABILITY
What kind of
“SOLAR POWER CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES”
are available for MW or GW scale ?
Three technologies are available:
1. Solar thermal electricity
2. Solar PV
3. Wind
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CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES
SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY
– SOLAR TOWER (molten salt) ~ 900 °C ??
– PARABOLIC TROUGH (thermal oil, steam) ~400 °C
– SOLAR CHIMNEY ~ 60 – 80 °C, buoyancy-wind
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CPS environmental benefits
Steinhagen, DLR,Germany
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CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES
SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY
• SOLAR TOWER (molten salt-sodium, potassium nitrate) ~ 900 °C
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ONLY EXPERIMENTAL UNIT 10 MW
LOW EFFICIENCY ~ 7%
INVESTMENT NOT KNOWN
MAINTENANCE OF HELIOSTATS
HIGH TEMPERATURE CONVERSION
USEFULL FOR SINFUEL
Project: 40 MW thermal – 15 MWe/24 h; 15$c/kWh
Investment: 100 M$
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CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES
SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY
• PARABOLIC TROUGH (thermal oil, water/steam) ~400 °C
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Real SEGS 354 MW – 20 year of operation
Efficiency: ~ 10,8%,y; 20% dayly max.
New plant eff.:: ~ 15-16%,y
Solar field eff. up to 60%
investment: $2000/kW for SEGS
Investment: $ 850/kW for ISCCS
Maintenance: acceptable
Hybridization up to 25%, thermal storage
Thermal storage costs:~ $20/ kWh
Mojave desert, Kramer Junction
SEGS- Solar Electric Generating System
ISCCS – Integrated Solar Combined-Cycle System
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CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES
SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY
Solar electric generation system
(SEGS) – layout;
Land use: ~ (20 – 25) m2/kWe
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CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES
SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY
SEGS 354 MW
Kramer Junction
Mojave Desert,
California
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CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES
SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY
SEGS – SOLAR ELECTRICITY GENERATING SYSSTEM
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CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES
For medium power, simple design, reliable (?)
Solar chimney
Low efficency, integrated storage,
aproppriate for hybridization with CSP,
little experience
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CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES
design data comparison
ISCCS 200 MW: 773,5 GWh/y, Cf = 50%
673 ha (2600 x 2600 m); A= 33,6 m2/kW
 ~ 14 %, costruction time: 12 months
Solar tower 200 MW: 350 ÷400 GWh/y, Cf ~ 57% (700 ÷ 800 GWh/y)
Land area: 1920 ha (D =5000 m, h =1000 m), A ~ 98 m2/kWe
 ~ 2 ÷ (4) %, Construction time: 34 months
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CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES
SOLAR PV ELECTRICITY
• SOLAR PV ELECTRICITY
– Si CRYSTALLINE CELLS: Efficiency ~ 12-16 %
– Si POLYCRYSTALLIN CELLS: Efficiency ~ 10 -14 %
– GaAs, CdTe, CIS,.. Efficiency > 16% (abs. max.:37,9 % at 10
sun, 39 % at 236 sun, May, Jun 2005)
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CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES
SOLAR PV ELECTRICITY
Solar PV power plant, Tucson, Arizona, USA
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ESTIMATED PRODUCTION CAPACITY
• EU 25 ESTIMATED ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN
2010: > 3500 TWh (2711 TWh in 2002)
• CONSTRUCTION PLAN TO 2030: 184, 3 GW FOR
REPLACEMENT AND 184,3 GW NEW PP
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MIN. RENEWABLE ENERGY SHARE: 87,5 GW
• 50 % of them can be build in SAHARA as
SUSTAINABLE, POLLUTION FREE Power Plants
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Sustainable electricity supply proposal
Solar electricity production for EU in north east LIBYA desert
Available:
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LAND
SOLAR IRRADIATION
TECHNOLOGIES
ELECTRICITY DISPATCH
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MAP of LIBYA
1,759,540.00 sq km,
1% arable land
Land for ~ 700 GW PP
200 x 200 km
~1542 km
~1667 km
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CLIMATIC DATA FOR NORTH - EAST LIBYA
Monthly average climatic data for 31,5°N; 23,5°E
NASA surface meteorology and solar energy
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kWh/m2; m/s
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7
6
30
Air temperature: 19,1°C
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Insulation on 31°tilted surface:
6,18 kWh/m2 (6,6 kWh/m2 opt.)
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5
15
4
3
2
YEARLY AVERAGE:
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Insol. Hor.kWh/m2
Diff. Insol. kWh/m2
Insol 31° kWh/m2
wind m/s, 50m
temp.°C
Wind speed, height 50 m:
5,01 m/s (86% > [3÷ 10] m/s)
5
1
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
0
Jan
0
Months
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PV production NORTH - EAST LIBYA
Estimated solar electricity from 1 kWp PV, tilted surface
31°, perf. ratio 0,75 or 1kW SEGS
7
200
kWh
5
4
100
3
2
50
Air temperature: 19,1°C
Insulation on 31°tilted surface:
6,18 kWh/m2 (6,6 kWh/m2 opt.)
6
150
YEARLY AVERAGE:
opt. angle
month 1 kWp
day 1kWp.
Yearly production: 1541 kWhe
Land use: ~ 25 m2/ kWp
1
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12
Months
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DESIGN CONCEPT
1200 MW SOLAR THERMAL, PV and WIND POWER PLANT
unit, consisting of:
1 x 200 MW solar chimney; 5000 x 5000 m, H = 1000 m
6 x 100 MW ISCCS
3 x 6100 x 700 m
2 x 100 MW PV
1 x 5000 x 500
80 x 2,5 MW WG
between others
__________________________________________
Total: 1200 MW
area 6800 x 6400 m = 43, 52 km2
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DESIGN CONCEPT
Total efficiency (with present technology):
Solar chimney: 3,0 %
ISCCS:
12,5%
PV:
10,5%
WG:
40,0%
Capacity factor: Cf ~ 0,75
Yearly electricity production:
3,862 (ST+PV) + 1,280 (WG) TWh = 5,142 TWh/yr
Number of units build per year: 7 ÷ 10
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DESIGN SCHEDULE AND CAPACITY
Because of different construction durations, the order of the
construction should be:
1.
2.
3.
4.
PV – 2 x 100 MW
Wind generators, 80 x 2,5 MW (w ~ 6,4 m/s)
Solar chimney, 1 x 200 MW
ISCCP, 6 x 100 MW
To cover 100% of the yearly electricity consumption in 2030 for 25
EU Countries, a land area of max. 200 x 200 km will be needed or
less than 2,5% of Libya’s desert area. Production of 4000 TWh/yr
with power capacity factor of 0,75 could be achieved. Using the
hybridisation power capacity, this factor could be close to 1.
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DESIGN CONCEPT
2 x 100 PV
80 x 2,5 MW WG
2 x 100 MW PV
6 x 100 MW ISCCS
1 x 200 MW
Solar chimney
200 MW
P. Novak, Energotech, SI
39EES, Nicosia 2007
SOLAR
POWER
STATION
GWGW
SOLAR
POWER
PLANT1 1,2
+ ~ 200 WIND TURBINE (~ 7X7 KM)
Location: 31°N;23°E; Land use:~ 7 x 7 km
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CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES
SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY
ISCCS – INTEGRATED SOLAR COMBINED-CYCLE SYSTEM
Low pressure solar
steam
Variants: ORC
geothermal hot rock
High
pressure
solar
steam
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TRANSMISSION
Electricity
In the first phase of solar power plant construction the
mediteranian high voltage line circular line can be used.
• The second phase is construction of the high voltage
direct current under-sea line to EU contries.
• The third phase is to convert solar electricity to syn-fuels:
hydrogen, methan (gas) and methanol (liquid) for
sustainable energy system
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Future possible grid connections
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CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER ECONOMICS
SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY
Debt Interest Rate: 9,5%
Equity IRR: 15%
Performans waranty: 1-5 y
Peak capacity factor on 6h basis: 90 -95% with fossil hybrid or thermal storage
Annual capacity factor: Cf ~ 40-50 %
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CPS ECONOMICS
SOLAR THERMAL POWER PLANT - ISCCS
(www.energylan.sandia.gov/sunlab/overview.htlm)
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PV ECONOMICS
SOLAR PV ELECTRICITY
Solar modules costs
The cost of the system is
about 2-times the module
costs, depending on the land
and support structure costs;
COSTS ~ (7 – 10) $/Wp
(5,4 ÷7,7) €/Wp
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Syn-fuel – Hydrogen costs
SOLAR HYDROGEN: 4 - 2 TIMES
MORE EXPENSIVE
Basic Research Needs for solar energy utilisation, ANL Workshop April 2005
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How to start ?
1. Donation of the land to one of UNO
international organizations (UNESCO; UNDP;
UNEP) – 35 ÷ 99 year contract
2. Organizing international activities to build the
first unit from donations/credit (WB, GEF) and
private/public partnership
3. Selling the “green” electricity to Europe and
other interested countries
4. Profit should be used for activities of UNO
(e.g. UNESCO, UNDP, UNEP, etc.)
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How to start ?
Benefits:
1. UN organizations become financially less dependent
and can help African and other countries in
development.
2. Europe will be supplied with sustainable electricity
from independent organizations.
3. Experience will be collected for the future
commercially built units.
4. Libya or other (land owning) North Africa countries
will become important part of international
sustainable development policy
5. Africa’s development can be financed by itself
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CONCLUSIONS
• The question of solar electricity production on large
scale in North Africa for EU is not:
“can we do it” but “why don’t we do it”
• We have the technology, which is not yet optimized,
but is available.
• Do we have the political will?
THANK YOU
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