Exploring Tri-State Climate
Variability and Change
Fifth Tri-State Weather Conference
Dr. David A. Robinson
Professor, Department of Geography
& New Jersey State Climatologist
Rutgers University
Western Connecticut State University
October 18, 2014
Landing Lane, Piscataway, NJ
1 May 2014
Outline for this morning
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Greetings from the ONJSC
Climate system
Climate past to present
Causes of climate change
Our climate future
NJclimate.org
Office of the
NJ State
Climatologist
Data
Information
Knowledge
Decision
NJclimate.org
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NJ Weather &
Climate Network
NJweather.org
NJclimate.org
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Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network:
7AM 15 July – 7AM 16 July, 2014
www.cocorahs.org
NJclimate.org
Outline for this morning
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Greetings from the ONJSC
Climate system
Climate past to present
Causes of climate change
Our climate future
NJclimate.org
Weather – Climate “Players”
NJclimate.org
The big picture: a tri-state squeeze play
NJclimate.org
Outline for this morning
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Greetings from the ONJSC
Climate system
Climate past to present
Causes of climate change
Our climate future
NJclimate.org
Climate
past
NJclimate.org
Climate is your personality……….
Weather is your mood……….
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Plenty of moodiness……….
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1938 Hurricane
Long
Island
Wareham, MA
Providence, RI NJclimate.org
Nor'easter: March 1962
Harvey Cedars
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1960s Drought
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Floyd:
16 September 1999
New Brunswick
Bound Brook
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26-27 December 2010
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Irene
29 August 2011
Weston, CT
Windham, NY
Manville, NJ
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Irene rainfall:
28 August 2011
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29 October 2011 snow storm
Bergenfield
30 October
Wantage
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Sandy
Maximum
Wind Gusts
Oct 29-30, 2012
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Hoboken
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Mantoloking
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Holgate
Photo: Will Randall-Goodwin
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Hundreds of thousands of trees down……
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Personality adjustment……….
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Human
influences
NOAA NCDC
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Indicators of
change
from multiple
data sets
National Assessment, 2014
(updated from Kennedy
et al., 2010)
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Seasonal Snow Anomalies
(snowcover.org)
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Arctic Sea Ice
Stroeve et al EOS 2008
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Ice loss from the two polar ice sheets
Based on GRACE satellite observations
From Wouters et al, 2013
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U.S.
precipitation
change
Map: 1991-2012
compared to
1901-1960
Graphs: Decades
Compared to
1901-1960
National Assessment, 2014
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U.S.
temperature
change
Map: 1991-2012
compared to
1901-1960
Graphs: Decades
Compared to
1901-1960
National Climate Assessment, 2014
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Increase in
frost-free
season length
1991-2012
relative to
1901-1960
National Climate Assessment, 2014
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Global land & ocean temperature anomalies: 1880-2013
0.65 deg C/century
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Trends in annual mean Connecticut temperature; 1895-2013
52° F
47 F
1900
2010
data source: National Climatic Data Center
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Unusually warm and cold months in NJ
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Offshore Water Temperatures: August 1983-2011
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Trends in annual mean New York precipitation: 1895-2013
50”
35”
1900
2010
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Unusually wet and dry months in NJ
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Change in amount of precipitation from very heavy events
Percent change
1958 – 2011
Very heavy equals
the heaviest 1% of
precipitation events
Recent decades are
also higher than the
first half of the 20th
century
National Climate Assessment, 2014
NJclimate.org
Sea level rise: global and regional: 1880-present
1.7 mm/y NJ
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Local sea level rise and tidal flooding 1970-2012
Union of Concerned Scientists, 2014
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Outline for this morning
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Greetings from the ONJSC
Climate system
Climate past to present
Causes of climate change
Our climate future
NJclimate.org
Is climate presently changing
in tri-state & elsewhere?
Preponderance of evidence suggests climate
change is occurring and humans are responsible
for a significant portion of recent changes
1. theory
2. observations
3. models
NJclimate.org
Theory
Modeling
NJclimate.org
Human and natural influences on 20th century global temperature
National Climate Assessment, 2014
adapted from Huber and Knutti, 2012
NJclimate.org
Surface air
temperature
and
solar energy
(from satellite
& proxy sources)
1976-present
National Assessment, 2014
source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC
NJclimate.org
Outline for this morning
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Greetings from the ONJSC
Climate system
Climate past to present
Causes of climate change
Our climate future
NJclimate.org
The tri-state’s future climate
 Rising temperatures
 Steady or increasing precipitation
 Increasing variability and extremes
- storms, flood, drought, heat…….
 Rising sea level
NJclimate.org
Changing Annual
and Seasonal
Temperatures
2041-2070
minus
1971-2000
North American Regional
Climate Change Assessment
Program
Kunkel et al. NOAA Tech.
Report NESDIS 142-9, 2013
NJclimate.org
Changing Annual
and Seasonal
Precipitation
2041-2070
minus
1971-2000
North American Regional
Climate Change Assessment
Program
Kunkel et al. NOAA Tech.
Report NESDIS 142-9, 2013
NJclimate.org
Projected increases
in the number of days
over 90 deg F
1971-2000
2041-2070
National Assessment 2014
NJclimate.org
More major storms ahead?
…. future destructive storms are to be expected……
……..with the atmosphere and ocean becoming
primed for a greater frequency of such events.
NJclimate.org
A change in extremes?
17 September 1999
# 2 crest 21.0’ (nearby Blackwells Mills: 1921-present)
Manville
16 April 2007
# 3 crest 19.2’
14 March 2010
# 6 crest 16.2’ (1 May 2014 #7 crest 15.9’)
28 August 2011
# 1 crest 21.2’
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Tidal flooding:
Events per year
present
2030
and
2045
Union of Concerned Scientists, 2014
NJclimate.org
Summing up:
Be it weather moodiness or long-term climate
personality changes, a dull moment is rare to find.
There is abundant evidence that the atmosphere,
oceans and continents are primed to produce even
more action, more variability, more change in the
decades ahead.
Continued vigilance is required to monitor, understand
and predict the future behavior of the climate system.
NJclimate.org
Dave’s first weather observations
Tenafly, NJ: circa some time in the 20th century
Thanks
david.robinson@rutgers.edu
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