Team Russia
TI: Lauren Kiek
CEO: Joe Meyer
Part A
In looking at several different graphs from the IF system, those that most caught
my notice were those dealing with economic growth and on the quality of life. In looking
at the economic side of Russia’s future it is important not only to look at overall forecasts
but where the economic growth is originating and where the money to drive that growth
is coming from; in hope of deriving this information I look at the Knowledge society,
investments, and saving indexes, as well as the physical quality of life index. In looking
forward a 20 year projection is used, closing the horizon at year 2025.
In first looking at the Knowledge society Index to try to discern the educational
and research trends it is clear that all the projections anticipate a relatively steady increase
on the Knowledge base index—the question is at which speed it is to increase. The graph
shows that Russia is currently in the lower half of the index slowly moving toward the
top quarter. According to the graphical projection the best general courses of action to
maximize the potential improvement along the Knowledge based index would be
“Policy” or “Sustain,” which have roughly the same effect. The worst course to take in
attempting to maximize the index would be “Security.”
In looking at the Investment trend projection we are looking for funds made
available for the development of industries. All the generic policies with the exception of
“Markets” project a slump of investments beginning roughly in 2009. The least
beneficial course would be “Security.” When looking at the projected slump in the
Investment Trend and the projected growth Savings rates it is clear that much of the long
term growth in the country will ultimately be driven by internal savings rather than FDI.
Following the investment trend it is important to look at where the money for
investing is coming from; if there is not sufficient savings within the country for
investment firms must obtain monetary support elsewhere or go without. The Savings
trend is somewhat alarming with the step decline currently being experienced. This trend
projects not only a decrease in savings but to the point that the trend runs into a deficient
position. The only general policy approach that minimizes the short term (3-5 years)
decline is in the “Market” policy but over the medium (5-10 years) to long term (10-20
years) it does not lead to the best savings rate. After the projected bottoming out of the
savings rate, the “Sustain” Approach projects the best long term benefit.
While looking for economic growth is very important it is useless if the masses do
not reap a level of benefit beyond the costs. Following Russia’s Drift according to
general policy in regards Physical Quality of Life Index the best outcome would be to
follow a “Sustain” policy, the worst would be along the “Security” trend. However, it is
important to note that the margin within which Russia is working is relatively small,
within the high 80’s to the low 90’s of the index.
Following the aforementioned projections the overall best course in maximizing
these areas of interest would be to follow a “Market” and “Sustain” approach while
moving away from the “Security” policies. While the “Market” and “Sustain” scenarios
have differing focuses they can work together with overlapping, or compromising
strategies. The largest incongruity between these two scenarios is in dealing with energy.
As far as the goal to minimize the “Security” scenario’s impacts, this is largely fulfilled
in moving toward the scenario parameters of “Market” and “Sustain,” as they run counter
to each other. Essentially the main goals include overall economic liberalization,
increased spending on healthcare, education, and research and Development, while
decreasing military expenditures—easier said than done.
Part B
Overall the goals mentioned above should be readily accepted by members within
the group and encouraged by external nations. The two vocations which would naturally
be resistant to these changes is the military and intelligence branches as a decrease in
military spending could be viewed as a decrease in the ability to maintain current military
commitments and a decrease in the country’s ability to protect against internal and
external threats to national security. Another problem associated with the proposed
agenda is that there is the necessity to pay for the social programs.
The fact that only 30% of the current military personnel are serving under
contract as opposed to conscripted service makes downsizing a slightly more simplistic
matter. However, the country’s disputed territories and border areas increased
dramatically with the dissolution of the Soviet Union; until these conflicts are resolved
the threat of military action against the country remains unabated. Despite the perceived
military threats to the country the downsizing to a military comprised of a greater
percentage of contract soldiers could actually improve to overall effectiveness of the
military, creating a more streamlined and less expensive military force (World Factbook,
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/rs.html).
In the years since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia has liberalized a great deal.
However, there is plenty of room remaining for further economic liberalization.
Additionally, further social liberalizations and improvements in the observance of human
rights are necessary (Dept. of State, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/3183.htm). Small
movements toward the freeing of various institutions would have a dramatic impact on
the aforementioned goals. These changes would be strongly supported by other nations;
not only does this liberalization appeal to the mentalities of the several largest economic
countries but it also helps to foster trade creating a more accessible market to foreign
producers.
One of the best investments a country can make for future economic sustainability
and advancement is in education. It is noted that education is quickly on the rise in
Russia , however, the fastest growing segment of education is in the Social arena
(business, law, ect) not in the Natural arena (sciences, engineering, ect) (HDR,
http://hdr.undp.org/docs/reports/national/RUS_Russian_Federation/Russia_Federation_2
004_en.pdf). While this form of education does help to create a more fulfilling existence
and streamline business it does not help to put/keep the country in the technological
forefront, nor does it develop new industries. In order to move away from a majority of
the country’s exports being derived from natural resources the country must develop new
industries and R&D.
Notes on IF scenarios:
Market approach: Increased liberalization of trade; liberalization of domestic
economies; accelerating democratization; Increases in global migration; Increases in
foreign direct investment; Increases in the production rate of natural gas; Accelerations in
discovery rates of oil and natural gas; Increases in annual productivity gains of .45%
Sustain: Attention to energy demand that reduces it by 50%; Increase in educational
spending in OECD countries of 10%; Increase in health spending 10%; Increase in R&D
spending 10%
Security: opposite policies of above except include decreases in military spending by
20%
Part C
As Russia’s CEO, I feel it is imperative for the well being of my country and of
the people to increase health care standards, educational spending and reform, the
country’s infrastructure, and to see military reforms aimed at improving readiness
through efficiency and moral improvement. To achieve these ends we, as a nation, must
increase economic inflows and encourage the growth of internal investments/
reinvestment.
As a leadership style I believe in the inverse pyramid. The CEO is not at the top
but rather the base; he (I) am not served by all others but is (am) rather a servant of all
others. In light of this philosophy I am obligated to encourage and assist my constituents
in the promotion of policies where they serve the aforementioned ends. Our CIO (Sylvia
Jurado) says we need to promote Healthcare and Education, in this I am in wholehearted
agreement. Our CTO (Kaprice Rita) speaks of the need to encourage Exports, again this
is one of my main aims. The CBO (Ryan Kelly) says that we must increase trade to
improve our citizens’ standard of living; and that we have a large problem of Corruption
and a weak Banking System and to counter this the government is dealing with organized
crime (CSO-Sean Sumida) to decrease the negative internal influence. The country’s
CFO (Courtney Canter) claims we need to improve our Infrastructure and promote a clear
Foreign Policy. This Foreign Policy, supported by our CMO (Andrew Hodge), is: we do
NOT seek or desire military conflict, our only aim is to defend and improve the lives of
our citizens; this we hope to accomplish through mutually beneficial trade and
understanding. We believe in our own country’s sovereignty and the right of other
nations to have theirs, to this end we shall support our CSO (John Donahue) in his firms
trade of Russian produced goods and labor.
Russia is a proud country with proud people, and rightfully so, but we are
experiencing hard times; as such, I beseech the richer nations of the world to increase
foreign aid in the form of medical, technological, and financial aid. This Aid will be
returned to the world through a decrease in the trans-global HIV threat and promote
health, productivity, and happiness of an entire nation of people and, indeed, the entirety
of the world. Although the danger of our dependency on foreign aid has been pointed out
by our CFO the benefit to our people outweighs the threat.
Ours is a resource rich country and we hope to engage in fruitful international
trade of our resources. However, we will not merely expend our resources without
reciprocation. We hope that our current and future trading partners will invest in us with
their technology and innovations as we invest the goods of our lands in their growth. We
have a growing internal demand for (foreign) produced goods as such we offer a growing
market to foreign firms.
Peaceful solutions are always the most attractive of options and we hope to
encourage peaceful cooperation between nations with the aim of a safer world.
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CFO: Courtney Canter
Section A
The above graph shows the Power Index of Russia from the year 2000 to the year
2020. From the graph we can see that the power index of Russia peaked in about 2004,
and it’s pretty much a slow decline to 2020. Through trade, alliances, and strong
advocacy of technology education, Russia can take steps to avoid this outcome. As a land
that is rich in natural resources such as timber, minerals, natural gas, and oil, we can be a
valuable trade partner. According to the IFs model, Russia’s GDP has increased since the
year 2000, and will continue to do so in the future. Russia can use this money to pay off
its debts and invest in the education of its people and the infrastructure of its people.
According to the CIA’s world factbook, while Russia possesses a “wide natural
resource base including major deposits of oil, natural gas, coal, and many strategic
minerals, (and) timber…formidable obstacles of climate, terrain, and distance hinder
exploitation of natural resources (World Factbook).” If Russia can develop technologies
to combat these factors, it would undoubtedly be one of the most valuable trade partners,
especially for countries who are dependent on imported sources of energy. If Russia were
to supply these natural resources to countries, such as the United States, it’s power would
certainly increase as those countries would be dependent on Russia.
The above graph shows the dependency of Russia on foreign aid. As the graph
clearly shows, Russia becomes increasingly dependent, borrowing an upwards of four
billion dollars by the year 2020. These figures should be a cause of concern for Russia, as
we struggle to regain our place in the international community, not as a developing
country, but as a self sufficient country and a powerful ally. Russia needs to lessen its
dependence on foreign aid to be respected within the international community. Russia has
more natural resources than any other country and it also is the largest country in the
world (in terms of land, not population). Once Russia is able to utilize its own resources,
it can take its natural place as a world power and as a strong partner in trade.
This forecast is important, as we realize that in order to be an international power,
we cannot be dependent on foreign aid. As I mentioned earlier, Russia’s GDP has
increased over the past six years, and continues to increase every year. Russia can use
some of the money from its growing economy to pay off foreign debts. Our group is also
seriously considering selling many of our nuclear weapons to help us pay off our debts
and to also invest in our infrastructure.
Section B
Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia has struggled to establish itself as a
democratic capitalist society. In order for Russia to once again become an international
power, it must work from the inside out. Revamping the infrastructure of Russia will
allow for increased productivity, hence increased trade and power. Making alliances will
be key to the development of Russia’s economy, and the security of the nation.
Even though Russia is by far the largest area country in the world, it ranks 12th in
the number of roads it has. According to the CIA’s World Factbook, roughly 33% of
Russia’s roads are unpaved, which is definitely limits transportation accessibility. This is
just one example of an area of infrastructure that needs to be changed. Building and
fixing roads will allow development to areas where that may not have been previously
possible due to inaccessibility. And according to the CIA’s World Factbook, “Russia's
manufacturing base is dilapidated and must be replaced or modernized if the country is to
achieve broad-based economic growth. Other problems include a weak banking system, a
poor business climate that discourages both domestic and foreign investors, corruption,
and widespread lack of trust in institutions. (World Factbook)”
Increased trade will allow for Russia to increase it’s GDP while forming alliances
and friendships with other countries. Russia’s largest exports are oil and natural gas.
According to the World Factbook, Russia is the second largest producer of oil, and the
largest producer of natural gas in the world. While these resources are extremely
beneficial, it would be advantageous to the Russian economy to invest in technology and
other forms of energy. Russia can remain a leader in exporting energy if we develop new,
more fuel efficient and environmentally friendly sources of energy. While, for now, oil
and natural gas remain the main sources of energy, eventually as these resources run out,
the world will need energy alternatives.
As of right now, Russia has no real allies or a definitive foreign policy. This is
something that will have to change in order for Russia to establish itself as an important
member of the international community. Because of the instability and tumult in the
recent history of Russia, it would not be very wise to make enemies. Russia must gain
stability by encouraging peaceful relations while maintaining its own national security.
Russia is looking to make alliances with countries that will agree to trade with us, and
protect Russian interests in their own countries. While Russia promotes a policy of peace,
we understand that some other countries may view us as a threat due to our possession of
nuclear weapons or our abundance of natural resources that could possibly help us once
again become a world power. This is why we would like to ally with countries that will
help neutralize any threats towards Russia while being beneficial to both economies.
Works Cited
1.)
The World Factbook. Last updated January 10, 2006.
<http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html>
2.)
International Futures. Barry Hughes © 1989-2005. <http://www.ifs.du.edu/>
Russia Seeks to Make Alliances
The Chief Foreign Officer of Russia has announced today that it would like to
begin making alliances with other countries, to benefit trade and security for Russia and
its allied partners. Russia’s first priority is internal stability and the flourishing of
Russia’s people. It is believed that by importing technology and other manufactured
goods, Russia can better its economy and its people. Countries such as Japan and South
Korea possess technology that will help Russia, and Russia, in turn, is a large exporter of
oil and natural gas, which may be of interest to many other countries.
Russia also seeks to make alliances which will ensure its national security.
Though Russia sees many of the countries in the international community as nonthreatening, it is in the best interest of the Russian people for the government to make
alliances that will ensure their safety. Russia could also provide protection to countries in
exchange for trade. As previously stated, Russia’s first priority is the well-being of its
people, and the infrastructure. Russia believes that with a focus on education and
healthcare, as well as the development of technology and improved internal conditions,
the country will once again be able to prosper. Russia is willing to work hard to gain the
trust of other countries and make trade alliances to bring money into the country and to
its people.
For countries with little strength and few natural resources, it would be
advantageous to ally with Russia. It is the second largest producer of oil and the largest
producer of natural gas in the world. Russia is also rich in timber and raw materials.
Russia’s leaders are expected to meet with the leaders of other countries in the
international community to further discuss matters of alliances, trade, and security.
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CIO: Sylvia Jurado
Essay 1
Part A.
Two important things to any country, in my opinion, are Education and
Healthcare. The two graphs that can relate to both Healthcare and Education are the
“Literacy Rate” and “Infant Mortality Rate” graphs. Both graphs show trends heading in
a positive direction over the next twenty years for Russia.
With literacy at about 98% the trend continues to show that in the next twenty
years the rate will be at 100% of the population will be literate. Which shows that
Education plays an important role in the “Quality of Life” in Russia. Aiming to better
one’s self through Education should be an essential message the government should be
working on to send.
With the infant mortality rate on a downward slope shows how the government is
working on a better healthcare plan. “Working on more preventative methods as opposed
to on the spot treatment” (CNN.com Healthcare in Russia)
Health and Education are two factors that can be incorporated into Maslow’s Hierarchy
of needs. Taking care of the needs of one’s health as a “physiological need” and
education that can tap into not only the “feeling of belongingness” but also the “selfesteem” aspects of the hierarchy. When it comes to the GDA model the goals would be to
make sure the people of Russia get the best care possible. The pressure to get money to
fund these programs will be a challenge but it is a possibility with the opportunities with
other countries and with funding going in the right direction. Focusing on Health and
Education as important policies for the people of Russia can be successful even if it is a
slow process.
Part B.
“It was inherited by the Soviet Union without any significant changes and back then
education of all levels were free to anyone who passed the entrance exams, when they
passed the students were provided with small scholarships and free housing giving
students that couldn’t afford it the opportunity to learn.”
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_in_Russia) Even though the education system
went through a rough time during the collapse of the Soviet Union it still remained intact
while struggling financially with the goal of continuing higher education.
“With over three million students attending over 519 institutions of higher education, 48
Universities, with an emphasis on Science and Technology, a major focus on Russian
Medical, Mathematical, Space and Aviation. With the literacy rate at 99 percent and
having the education equivalences of Ph.D’s and Doctor Degrees,”
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_in_Russia) it is easy to say that Russia is on the
right track of higher education. Continuing the tradition of Keeping Education at the level
that it is at is a must and should continue to stay at the top of the list when it comes to
government funding.
Healthcare in Russia on the other hand is in the opposite side of the spectrum. With the
infant mortality rivaling that of Third World Countries in some regions of the country,
the lack of education in the pre-natal and post-natal care for mothers play a big role.
Infant deaths and illnesses are possible to prevent with proper education. “The long-term
economic impact of unhealthy children born in the past decade is already a serious
limiting factor to Russia’s emergence as a strong economic partner and international
actor…. with expanded investments in infrastructure and education, improved access to
quality care, and reform of Russia’s healthcare sector…Russia on it’s own cannot finance
this…untapped opportunities also exist for collaboration between Russian, European, and
American civic groups, healthcare experts, scientists, and policy leaders that would have
a positive impact on maternal and child health in Russia and beyond.” (exert taken from
http://orpahndoctor.com/adoption/offline/russia healthcrisis.html original article
http://psp.jews.org/highlights.cfm )
Going back to the Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs, to be able to satisfy the physiological
needs alone with the improvement on Healthcare can help fulfill the base of the
hierarchy. Giving the people of Russia the opportunity to go to the next level. Education
on it’s own can also hit the different levels of the hierarchy, for example the feeling of
belongingness to be apart of the society and knowing what is going on and to respond
with an educated answer just gives you that self-esteem (another level) to know you are
respected for your knowledge. It just helps you reach your Ideal. Education and
Healthcare will be on the top of my list to continue to push into policy.
Along with working on a better plan for health and education I will also work on finding
needed information for my group members be it, who will be our ally, who will be
willing to trade and working closely with the CSO’s. Working with the CMO to find out
who our enemies are. Learning as much as I possibly can about what is going on in the
other eight countries that will affect my country is what my group members can rely on
me for.
Part C
With previous conversations with my group members bettering the country of Russia, in
all important aspects, (i.e. Healthcare, Education, Military, Agriculture, etc.) is the
mutual goal. Being able to work together and knowing that my team has similar goals,
even if in different aspects of the country, in the end we all have the same conclusion, to
make Russia a better country for the people living in it. Having the resources that we
have at out fingertips should motivate us to put education and healthcare as top
contenders for policy attention, improving our education can give us the advantage in
agriculture, trade, military, etc. and can help us better ourselves as a country. Russia has
always had a negative association with the world, and working on giving us a positive
name or reputation is a must if we are to develop relations with other countries and
continue to trade. The goal is not to just trade and do business but to also have a positive
relationship with them. Being able to give help and receive it. I know that with Health
and Education alone we could use outside help to go with our funding, using methods
that are already into effect in other countries that could also help us better ourselves.
Russia has been a democracy for years now and I think the target of our country’s policy
isn’t to find the next war to fight and attempt to dominate other countries. The objective
here is to advance and progress. Focusing on the people of Russia and working towards
giving them what they need.
Work’s Cited
“Education in Russia.” Wikipedia the free encyclopedia. February 17, 2006.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/education_in_Russia
Massey, Stephen. “Russia’s Maternal & Child Health Crisis.” Orphan Doctor.
February 7,2003. http://www.orphandoctor.com/adoption/offline/russiahealthcrisis.html
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CMO: Andrew Hodge
RUSSIA: From Communism to Capitalism
OIL
EXPORT
Currently Russia is producing 3 billion barrels of oil annually. In 2010 we will be
producing 8 billion barrels. That will more than double income from a product that will
only become more expensive as the world supply dwindles. These gains can only help
fund more military spending. Oil and nuclear energy will help bring Russia back to it's
booming past. Also it will allow the world to be less dependant on Arab oil.
IMPORTS
In order to build trust and proper relations with foreign countries we must do
business with them. Russia will be importing 75 billion more products 4 years from
today. This is no cause to worry, because exports will still be higher. Importing more may
and should build stronger bonds with smaller countries needing our military aid for hire.
Trade is necissary to clear our stockpiles of weapons from the cold war era.
EXPORTS
15 years out of the Soviet Union and Russia is growing very well in exports. From
170 billion dollars this year to a projected 400+ billion in 14 years. This trend shows an
increase in GNP and can allow for military spending again. By 2010 exports can start
funding new armament and help defend our borders and cities from terrorism and
communism.
SECTION B: WHAT CAN I DO FOR MOTHER RUSSIA?
As Chief Military Officer I am in charge of Russias dwindling delapitated
military. My team will depend on me to protect and secure our borders as well as deal
with our foreign interests aswell. The CIA world factbook states that annually 1.3 million
men reach military service age, and currently 35 million are eligible. Also the world fact
book states, “.. at the end of 2005, the Army had 40 all-volunteer permanent-readiness
units to be formed in 2006; 88 MOD units have been designated as permanent-readiness
units and are expected to become all-volunteer by the end of 2007; these include most
air force, naval, and nuclear arms units, as well as all airborne and naval infantry units,
most motorized rifle brigades, and all special forces detachments.” This is a great step
forward from the days of forced conscription in Russia's dark past.
I will be depended on to maintain our current foreign policy, being the fist of
justice. Influencing alliances and possibly liberating small nations from much larger
empires. We will stay neutral in other countries squabbles. We will not be drawn into
wars without Russian interest.
I am calling for at least a 25% increase in military spending and increased benefits
for our permanent military. Also, the launching of advertising campaigns to help recruit
more qualified and educated soldiers. This will not be like the arms race that brought
Russia to it's knees in the early 90s. Our new military will be focused on non-nuclear
capibilites and more environmentally friendly options. It is in the world's interest for us to
avoid using nuclear weapons until there is no other option for Russia's safety as it was in
the past.
I am looking forward to creating military bonds with other European and Asian
nations. Military weapons and technology sale is currently being debated. It is not set in
stone if or will Russia will risk arming any potential enemies again. We learned our
lesson with Afganistan and will not have Russian troops killed with current Russian
techonology.
Hopefully military intervention will not be needed in this simulation. I am relying
on other members of my team to maintain proper relations and not need my intervention
or retaliation. In a final note I would like to express that the sovereignty of Russia is
strong and the nation of Russia will not respond nicely to terrorism or other military
threats.
C. RUSSIA: A NEW FOREIGN POLICY
Russia's past has been marked by strong nationalistic pride and strong military
rule. War and suffering are not new concepts to Russian citizens. As Russia's current
military leader I will not pursue war, in vain, like many other leaders have in the past.
With our youth moving more towards personal freedoms and free trade our government
will need to rely on new bonds and friendships with other countries.
My policy is to maintain and help build a new military. A military without forced
conscription and a less black and white foreign policy. I want a new Russia lead with
economic growth and a new supportive military. Using post WWII American and British
militaries almost as a model of how to involve our friendly military in world issues. Our
military is no longer an oppressive power. Russians are strong willed kind people, and as
Russia's Chief Military Officer I will not disgrace our citizens. I will empower them.
The US militaries involvement in Iraq may be debatable, but it is a step in the
right direction to secure the world from the new threat of global islamic extremism. It is
my current proposal to send military support to the fight against these extremists. Iraq is
not the focus of our concern. Russia will focus it's terrorism campaigns in its bordering
nations. Eastern Europe and South East Asia need help in their struggle against these
extremists.
“Al Qaeda, or ‘The Base’, was formed in 1988 by Osama Bin Ladin and his
associate
Mohammed Atef to bring together Arabs who fought in Afghanistan
against the Soviet Union invasion...Al Qaeda is reported to have a global reach, and the
countries where it maintains a presence include Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Turkey,
Jordan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Syria, Xinjiang in China, Pakistan, Bangladesh,
Malaysia, Myanmar, Indonesia, Mindanao in the Philippines, Lebanon, Iraq, Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Yemen, Libya, Tunisia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Chechnya, Dagestan,
Kashmir, Sudan, Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania, Azerbaijan, Eritrea, Uganda, Ethiopia, as
also in parts of the West Bank and Gaza. (www.satp.org /satporgtp/usa/Al_Queda.htm)”
Al Queda is a large effort against not just Americans, but all non-muslims around the
world. Just as the nazi's fought to eliminate a race of people these extremists want to
cleanse the world of Jews and Christians alike.
Currently I am busy fighting rebels in Chechnya. I am calling for a heightening of
military presence in the area and am open to foreign involvement. Russia welcomes other
countries to help fight these extremists and produce security for Russia's majority group
(Eastern Orthodox Christians). I am currently demanding that other countries will not
grant asylum or protect these terrorists.
These are all the current military policies I am willing to make public at this time.
I hope the world will grow to incorporate Russia's growth and military potential to the
greater good of the world.
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CBO: Ryan Kelly
Simulation Essay #1: Russia
Section A.
After discussing the economic future of Russia with all of our group members,
our attention was drawn to the simple need of more money in the country to better the
standard of living for the people of Russia. With this being known, we looked at what we
as a country possess, that could be used to our advantage in conducting world trade in
order to generate more income for our country. What we learned is that we have raw
materials such as oil, timber, metals and natural gases, which are good things to have in a
world where dependence on energy sources and more importantly alternative energy
sources, is going to be crucial in the coming decades.
If we look to Maslow’s model to see where Russia stands as far as its needs,
Russia as a whole seems to be in good shape. It looks like Russia has the resources it
needs for survival, it doesn’t seem to be in any immediate risk in regards to their national
security, and they seem to have a place in the system with a pretty steady power index
over the next 100 years (Hughes). The only problem is they don’t have enough money to
improve their infrastructure in order to make living in Russia healthier and of higher
quality.
If we look at Russia in terms of the GDA model, it makes our needs a little clearer
in order to map out our economic future. Right now, our actual, or our vision of the
present is not great, but we have a good place to start and improve. Drift is where we see
our self as a country improving substantially. We feel that we have things to offer the
growing world. We have the raw materials that other countries need to keep building and
producing products, and more importantly we have natural gasses that can hopefully be
used in the future for an alternative to oil. This brings us to our goal because we hope
that if we can offer these products to the world, then hopefully we can get some money
flowing into our economy and make Russia a stronger world power. From looking at our
GDA model, we see that we want to really focus our energy on exporting more and
importing less. If we look at the International Futures graph for exports in Russia, we see
that the amount of exports are forecasted to gradually rise over the next 100 years.
This graph is a good sign for the Russian economy because it shows how overall,
each of these export categories are expected to increase revenue, while the security
basically stays even over the next hundred years. If we want to look closer at what we
believe is going to be our most essential export, we have to look at a graph of consisting
only of energy exports.
This graph shows that in a time where energy is in high demand, we are going to be able
to profit a great deal. Because of this, not only we will improve the state of our country
financially, we will also be able to get an upper hand in trade negotiations, helping our
world status even further.
Looking at Easton’s model, we see our anticipated trends as far as what we can
offer the world. Because of what we can offer, we would expect that other countries
would be willing to trade more technology with us, as well as be encouraged to build
factories in our country to create more jobs and improve our economy even more. Given
that these demands are met, we would expect to be more respected as a world power, and
hopefully get support from other countries that have tended to not support us in the past.
If we are able to accomplish all of this, Russia will improve in Laswell’s model as well.
With more money in our country, we will be able to improve health care and education,
making our society safer and healthier, more educated, as well as a more skill-based work
force.
Section B.
After looking at information on Russia and its economy, it looks we are headed in
the right direction. Now the question is how we are going to keep the steady
improvement that has been going on for the last six years or so going in the right
direction. The answer is foreign relations as well as developing credibility for our
economy. This being said, we are going to have to put more government control on
business in Russia. Things like corruption and a weak banking system are going to scare
investors away from putting money into our economy (U.S. Dept. of State).
Our biggest asset is going to be energy. Not only do we have oil, we also have
natural gasses that may prove to be critical in the future of energy sources. With that
being said, we need to use these commodities to our advantage and use them as
bargaining chips to get more things that we need like electronics, from places like the
U.S., China and Japan. We are in a good position to be in, but we need more technology
to take care of our people at home and make Russia more technologically advanced.
In return for the valuable raw materials that we have to offer the world, we are
going to demand some things in return. We are going to want military support and
cooperation from the U.S., which at this point seems to be going in the right direction due
to shared beliefs about world peace. With the improvements in our economy, we want
more investors to step in and be confident in our improving financial system.
We expect the response to our actions to be positive and beneficial to us and the
world in general. We do not want to do anything to upset anyone, because we are in
favor of world peace. We hope that since we have valuable resources to offer the world,
then in return we can get things that we need in order to improve the quality of living in
Russia, as well as confidence in our country as a respected world power. We feel that if
we hold up our end of the bargain and make Russia a safe place to invest and promote
business, then we will be able to continue to move the economy in our country in the
right direction.
Table of Sources
1
2
3
www.ifs.du.edu
http://state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/
http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia
Section C.
The Economy of Russia is in a critical state. Right now it is more important then
ever that we make sure we keep the Russian economy moving in the right direction. That
being said, we in Russia would like to promote trade with various countries of the world,
with most of our energy being focused on the U.S., China, and Japan.
In Russia, we are suffering from a lack of technology. That is one of our biggest
problems, and we feel that if we can gain more technology and more knowledge and
training regarding technology, then we can improve many aspects of Russian life and
more importantly just raise the level of the quality of life for the Russian people. With
new technology, we will be able to make our hospitals safer and better equipped to take
care of the sick. We also feel that not only will students of our nation benefit from more
technology available to them in school, but also we feel that giving them knowledge
about how to build this technology will benefit the good of our country as an independent
nation for many years to come.
What we are willing to offer in trade for the knowledge and skill of technology
are the valuable resources that we possess including oil, natural gasses, metal and timber.
By helping Russia in its desire for a brighter future, we are willing to help countries like
the countries mentioned above, with the energy crisis that they are bound to be haunted
by in the near future. We feel that our natural gasses could be an enormous asset for
countries that are desperate for an alternate to the limited supply of costly oil. In the
mean time we are willing to sell our oil, but that is only a short term solution to a long
term problem, and the development of an alternative source of energy from our resources
will be a much more valuable investment for these countries.
We are also aware that Japan is looking to acquire timber for our country. We see
this as an excellent opportunity to help each other with things that we both need. From
Japan we would expect more technology to be brought into our country, and we also hope
that in the future Japan would be willing to look into setting up factories in our country
for their growing technological needs. This would be a great asset for us in order to get
more Russian people full time jobs and get more money moving in our economy.
We expect that the U.S., China and Japan in particular would support our ideas
for the future, and we would be willing to cooperate with various other countries as well.
We see the consequences of our trade relationship as minimal, and don’t see ourselves as
stepping on any other country’s toes with our ideas or planned actions. We know that
these countries will demand a lot from us for their technological products and knowledge,
but we feel that our supply of oil and natural gasses should be enough to keep all parties
involved satisfied.
Here in Russia, these trade relations and economy boosts would do nothing but
improve life for the Russian people. We are looking forward to creating jobs, a healthier
place to live, and eventually be able to invest in a better infrastructure for the country.
Cooperation and good relationships with all countries are what we are looking forward to
creating, and hopefully we have what you are looking for to succeed in your plans for a
better future.
===============================================================
====================
CTO: Kaprice Rita
Section A
The future of the Russian economy was an interesting topic in our group. The
biggest thing that we talked about was the development of a stronger internal structure
and trying to help the alcoholism in our nation. We also noted that Russia had many
natural resources that it could access to make it a stronger country. Natural resources,
such as oil, natural gases, and metal, could be used to make the economy stronger in a
time when natural resources are becoming scarce in a dependent world.
Using Maslow’s model, Russia seems to be doing pretty well. In general, the
basic survival needs of the country are being met. The security of the country seems to
be stable at the moment, as there are no big threats on Russia at the moment. The one
problem that Russia may encounter is its alcoholism. This could keep Russia from
becoming as strong as it has been or could be.
Russia is also doing well in accordance to Lasswell’s Value theory. The country
has a tremendous amount of skill and resources, and it is certainly capable of becoming
the world power that it once was. Russia also has the money to fund different programs
that it might want to try, whether in the economy or otherwise. The only thing that
Russia may lack in Lasswell’s theory is the heath aspect. Because of the alcoholism in
the nation, many of its people are not in good health. Russia needs to find someway to
change that fact. It would be a huge factor in their future.
The GDA model can also be used in Russia’s case. The Actual of Russia, of what
we hope the future to be, may not be all that great. Russia needs to make some changes
in its internal structure before it can become a huge world power again, but it definitely
has the potential. The drift of the country shows that Russia is capable of becoming a
base of the world’s economy. It could use its natural resources to export and also use
internally to help the nation’s growth, especially since oil is abundant at the moment, but
could easily be depleted through over use. Russia’s goal can be determined from these
factors. In a best case scenario, Russia would be able to build up internally and defeat the
alcoholism in the country. It could also research alternative economies or sources of
energy, as the natural resources in Russia are bound to run out.
This graph shows the Gross National Product of Russia. The Gross
Domestic Product of Russia seems to be growing at a steady pace currently, but in the
near future the economy will not be as successful as it is now. As the CTO of Russia in
our simulation, this graph had many meanings to me. First of all, this graph shows that
right now what Russia’s economy is working and will continue to be successful for the
next ten to fifteen years. On the other hand, the graph shows that the economy will not
always remain as stable as it is right now and plans for a better economy in the future
need to be put in place. In my simulation group I could look for ways to expand the
economy, since now it is heavily dependent on other countries.
The investments of Russia are another positive aspect of Russia’s
economy. It seems that Russia is rising back to the power that it was before the fall of the
Union. The trends in the graph show that the changes made in Russia over the past few
years have made a difference in the stability of the country. The one thing that seems to
be a little disturbing is the sharp rising and falling of the graph for the last ten years. It is
something that should be considered so that we can find ways to avoid it.
Easton’s model allows us to look at Russia’s facts and use them to anticipate
trends. Since Russia has many things to offer other countries. Because of this, it can be
expected that Russia will be able to become allies with many other powerful countries
and work with them to become a world power again.
Section B
The Russian economy is heavily based on exporting goods to other countries.
Right now the economy is flourishing because of the high world demand for oil and other
natural gases. But the supply will run out eventually and Russia needs to prepare for that.
In order make sure that Russia is stable in the future, it needs to form good relations with
other countries that will help it return to power as well as developing a better internal
structure so that the needs of the people are fulfilled as best possible.
The best way that Russia can gain right now is through the use of its natural
resources. It could use the metal and timber that is available to them and make build or
export them. They could also use their other natural resources to build relations with
countries like the United States or Japan and try to gain technological knowledge from
them. This would enable Russians to use the new technology to build other industries
and diversify their economy. That could also lead to an even more stable future for the
Russians.
Russia could also build up more social programs in the country. As stated earlier
in the paper, Russia has a severe alcohol problem and could start some programs for the
rehabilitation of alcoholics.
Russians should develop more skill based jobs in the country. While creating jobs
is easier said than done, Russia is suffering from a great deal of unemployment and
underemployment. If Russians were able to create more skilled jobs, then the quality of
living in the nation would rise and it would be off to a better start.
While Russia is stable at the moment, it will not last forever. Russia needs to
prepare for the future, not only worry about the present. If Russia is able to form better
relations with powerful countries, get rid of some alcoholism, and develop more skill
based jobs, the future of Russia will be very bright.
Section C
Russia to Trade Raw Materials for Technology
Over the past few weeks a major discussion in our group was how to help
Russia grow into an even better country. Our country needed to develop a better
infrastructure as well as find a way to get better technology. Through our research of the
country, we learned that Russia is rich in raw materials and we could use that in our
favor.
Russia is rich in oil. In order to gain better technology from other countries,
Russia would be willing to set up trade with different nations in exchange for new
technology. For example, the United States is known for consuming the most oil in the
world. It also has some of the best technology in the world. If the United States wanted
to, Russia could set up some sort of trade system to send them our oil and they could
share some of their technology with us.
Russia would benefit from setting up trade with another country. The goal of our
group in the simulation is to strength the infrastructure of Russia and in order to do that
we need to fund our different programs. From selling the raw materials, Russia could
fund the rebuilding of important cities as well as start more social programs that would
benefit its people.
Russia would also benefit from the technology that it will gain from other
countries. The new technology would allow Russia to create new machinery or buildings
that would greatly benefit the Russians. It would allow the Russians to gain a higher
standard of living.
The demand for trade of raw materials should be high. Right now, the demand
for oil is great throughout the world, and the prices are quite high. If Russia was to
charge a slightly lower price for the oil and then also ask for some technology, then the
entire world would benefit. The world would get cheaper oil and Russia would gain
much needed technology.
Russians using its raw materials as a means of trade would benefit the entire
world. It would allow Russians to gain a higher standard of living and learn to help
themselves and it would allow the other nations to maintain their standards of living as
well.
Works Cited
www.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia
www.russianembassy.org
www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook
www.state.gov
===============================================================
====================
CSO: John Donahue
Section A
Analyzing the most recent trends in the given past for the economy of Russian military
surplus gear, Russians need not to worry. Many given countries throughout the world still
rely on many given articles to supplement their individual given needs (in accordance to
the GDA model, as in goal). As a country that displays overall might in the realm of
foreign arm’s exports, Russia is the key player in dealing military arms, and is the most
cheapest, yet reliable source to deal with in the world. As you will note in the graph (1.1)
Russia still remains the most influential source of desired exports. As stated in the GDA
model, Russia will still remain a power and “attain goals against resistance.”
If we are to analyze Russia’s situation in the terms of Maslow, we see that for the
most part (at least in a purely future based model), that Russia is fulfilling its basic needs
of survival. Yet, there seems to be a looming threat possibly in the two realms. Those
realms being “survival” and “community.” Although there is health care provided to the
general Russian populace, there a growing sense of doubt, burdening the current health
care infrastructure (something Russia needs to comply with).
1.1 Military Arms
Russian exports will and for sometime in the short term keep other suppliers out
of the competition. Other countries are offering far fewer quantities of surplus and mean
to gain no profit of it because of over inflated prices. As the largest private company that
sells surplus gear, Rosoboronexport (or ROE), will continue to dominate the global
market due to in part the sheer number of post—Soviet arms built around the Cold War.
Analyzing Lasswell’s theory we realize that although Russia is a large country, it is a
large country with a small population of people. It may have the “inner” skill, but Russia
needs to strive to maintain better “outer” skill as well. We note that Russia has and will
continue to be enlightened and certainly skilled to the near future, but Russia needs to
focus on “inner” sources. Russia needs to open up a more dynamic group of businesses
(in this case “arms”) to make the market more competitive and more profitable for
companies.
1.2 Military Arms
Section B
In a recent ROE report, the government of Russia cites, “that ROE accounts for
more than 90% of the Russia's annual arms sales.” This is mainly due to the fact that
ROE is the official export/import company of the Russian government. ROE has now
been dealing with over 60 countries world wide, since its inception over 5 decades ago
(graph 1.2).
It would be useful to other countries to recognize that ROE does not just sell guns,
missiles and tanks. ROE also takes in further trade capabilities to the next level. The next
level in being that the company provides assistance in the construction of roads, runways,
buildings, repair of weapons and refitting of materials.
While keeping in mind the sole source of military gear, from ROE, I will as one
of two CSO’s of the group, provide assistance to other countries that may desire to have
Russian goods/services. It is imperative to recognize that the rest of my fellow colleagues
and I see to it that we provide the best in quality, yet affordable, prices for Russian
services. Keep in mind that our service is not just limited to the exploitation of weapons,
our field is very diverse (this in essence is fulfilling Maslow’s need of “security”). In part
of fulfilling the need of security Russia is dominant in this area of export. It is the
foundation of economic survivability.
With the specific goal of supplying countries that want our goods and services, I
will be working closely with all members of the group to insure relative cohesion of the
government. Yet, my role will deal more dynamically with the CEO, as well as the CMO
of our organization to better understand the dealings of other countries. Lastly, it is
important to note that as one of two CSO’s, I have no military capacity. ROE is strictly a
private organization, set outside the government with only the intention to aid in
economic growth.
Section C
Under Russia’s current policy will continue to allow countries that desire certain
goods to be attainable. Russia is certainly able and willing to work around situations that
may prove to be difficult between feuding countries. Russia will continue to center itself
as a neutral country, not permitting to take sides on the exportation of goods to countries.
However, Russia will not tolerate being bullied by other countries that may
choose to blackmail, or coerce by hostile intentions to gain goods. We will never
empower those that we may believe that wish us harm. It is our intention to only provide
to countries that maintain “friendly intentions” with Russia. If a country abruptly ends or
ceases to respect Russia’s agreements (pact/treaty), we will discontinue the sale of our
goods (if recognized as receiving goods presently).
Russia firmly believes that most of the countries will honor the establishment of
all present sales of goods. Yet, Russia knows for a fact that some countries may wish to
withdraw from the current purchasing of goods, and as a result, Russia will certainly
respect their wishes. Russia will continue to aggressively market their goods though to
remain the number one exporter of military arms into the future. In the process of doing
so it is also for the long term benefit or hope of Russia to keep the trade deal, and to keep
it in a decreasing demand (as shown in our graph
Work Cited
“Russian Arms Trade.” Online Edition, Special Operations Edition. March 18, 2005.
February 14, 2006, 20:25
<http://www.special-operations-technology.com/article.cfm?DocID=891>
===============================================================
===================
CSO: Sean Sumida
Section A
Examining the International Futures (I.F.s) simulation graphs there seems to be a general
upward outlook for Russia’s political economic future. With a positive growth forecasted
for overall GDP as well as foreign investment (graph 1.1) which is a direction I hope will
Graph 1.1 Foreign Investment (Russia)
eventually bring it the recognition that it deserves as a world power. There are, however,
a few trends that I find fairly disconcerting. Most notably the sharp and unrelenting fall in
population expected to continue throughout the upcoming century (graph 1.2), the large
anticipated dip in power index (graph 1.3), and the large jump in foreign aid expected
over the next 20 years (graph 1.4).
In my eyes, the principal goal in Russia’s future should be to achieve a higher
level of independence from outside foreign aid and to boost their own economy through
foreign investors and technological advances in their own industries. However according
to the I.F.s model, while they are expected to increase their own agricultural production
and foreign investment is expected to rise, within the next twenty years or so, foreign aid
is expected to almost triple before peaking and starting on a very gradual downward slope
(“Sustainability” model).
Graph 1.4 Foreign Aid (Russia)
While this on its own is fairly insignificant, it is in opposition to all the policies
we are pushing so that one day we will be able to sever reliance on foreign aid to boost
our overall image in the world market.
The unrelenting fall in population that, according to the I.F.s model, will
inevitably plague us in the future is concerning because not only do we lose valuable
laborers that could be used to build industry, but also we lose numbers that we could pull
from in the event of war or conflict. This is hand-in-hand with the declining power index.
Not only will Russia be viewed as less of a threat, but also as less of a beneficial ally.
Graph 1.3 Power Index
(Russia)
Section B
One of the largest problems currently faced by the reformed Russian government
is the high level of organized crime that has manifested mainly in the form of the mafia
and has slowly been spreading corruption throughout all levels of their society. Arising
mainly after the economic disaster following the fall of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, it
is believed that the majority of the bosses and main members of the Russian mafia are
former government officials including ex-Soviet Army and ex-KGB officers who lost
their posts in the reduction of forces following the end of the Cold War in 1993
(Wikipedia, 2006). Because of the large hindrance to the progress of new foreign policy
the mafia has played in recent years, I have chosen to play the role of a Russian mafia
crime lord as a C.S.O. in my group. However, instead of working against the government
we, as a group, have deemed it more beneficial to attempt to bring our organizations
together in an attempt to make the Russian market more appealing to foreign investors
which will in turn hopefully boost the overall economic wealth of the country. Working
with the mafia instead of against it, we hope to diversify our individual specialized trade
routes to bring money into the country and push vice out.
Working in this unconventional role there is a certain degree of under the table
dealing that has to be done considering that if our cooperation became public it would not
only drag the government’s public image down, but also bring the reputation and respect
of the mafia down in the global market. That being said, with our specific goals in mind, I
would most likely be working mainly with the C.M.O. for military aid to discreetly
protect and enforce strict trade-routes through the country and also to bring legitimacy to
some of the mafia’s foreign and internal affairs. I would also expect to be able to call
upon the intelligence officer and our other C.S.O. for information about dealings outside
the country that may be detrimental to our operations or that may present themselves to
be profitable to us.
"Russian Mafia." Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. 17 Feb 2006, 15:12 UTC. 20 Feb
2006, 23:25
<http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Russian_Mafia&oldid=40019054>.
Part C
Controlling roughly 55% of Russia’s capital, over 40,960 commercial enterprises,
among them 449 banks, 37 stock exchanges, 678 markets and 566 joint ventures with
Western participation, the Russian mafia is indeed a global force to be reckoned with
(The New American, 1996). However as mafia liaison I bring word that instead of
severing ties and further instigating internal conflict within our boarders, we the mafia,
would like to build our relationship with the government in what we hope will become a
fruitful venture that will bring free investing and technology into our great country which
will build our national economy furthering all of our wealth.
Utilizing our exceptionally vast global network, we would like to re-establish our
KGB roots which were never truly deserted. We intend to not only use information
gathered for political purposes but also as a form of economic and industrial anticipation.
Harnessing upcoming industry trends to allow Russia the opportunity to fully seize any
and every endeavor that may present itself.
Another one of our central goals in this alliance is to bring an end to the large
amount of drugs that are being trafficked through some of our larger and most influential
cities. If drug trade is inevitable due to Russia’s highly strategic geographic location, then
we must make it top priority to make sure that they are kept out of areas where they will
become stagnant and cause a widespread problem and leech money out of the economy
and overall prosperity of our major cities. To do this, we plan to implement a strictly
controlled and regulated drug route around major cities in Russia and to destinations
outside of the country. The eventual goal of which is to strictly hinder the amount of
drugs being consumed by nationals and to bring money in by creating trade relationships
with neighboring countries.
Of course these are by no means conventional practices and we do anticipate a
level of opposition. However, with some the best amenities and talent for falsifying
documents, a near infinite supply of arms, and a widespread network of highly trained
professional militia we think we will both be able to contain and control our trade and
counter any opposition if not only through political means but also with an iron fist.
“Russian Mafia: Organized Crime Is Big Business for the KGB.” The New American. 19
Feb 1996. 28 Feb 2006, 18:46
<http://thenewamerican.com/tna/1996/vo12no04/vo12no04_russian_mafia.htm>