Ethnic change in the populations of the
developed world.
British Society for Population Studies, St Andrews 2007
Tuesday 12 September 4.30
D.A. Coleman , ‘own-child’ calculations by M.D. Smith.
Department of Social Policy and Social Work, University
of Oxford
http://www.spsw.ox.ac.uk/oxpop
Projections of population by origin:
a summary of sources.
Austria
Denmark
Germany
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Sweden
Switzerland
USA
Projections of foreign-origin populations
end
criteria
source
year
2050 citizenship only
Lebhart and Munz 2003
2050 'foreign origin'
official statistics
2050 'foreign origin'
Ulrich 2001
2050 'foreign origin'
official statistics
2021 ethnic origin
official statistics
2060 'foreign origin'
official statistics
2050 'foreign origin'
official statistics
2050 citizenship only
official statistics
2100 race and Hispanic origin
official statistics
Australia
Canada
2009 aboriginal populations only
2017 aboriginal populations only
official statistics
official statistics
Note: 'foreign origin' or 'foreign background' usually taken to include foreign immigrants plus those with one or both parents foreign immigrant
Projections of 'foreign origin' usually include 'citizenship' and immigrants.
(i.e. two generations). Third generation assumed to be national. Fertility assumed to converge to close to, or same as, national average.
Migration usually held constant. Mortality of all groups mostly assumed to follow national projected trend.
Individual groups often clustered into 'Western background' and 'non-Western background' or similar classification.
Netherlands 2005 – 2050. Percent of population of
foreign origin with and without migration, to show
effect of ‘two-generation’ rule.
Netherlands 2005- 2050. Percent of population of foreign orgin ('Western'
and 'non-Western') with and without migration. Source: CBS.
35
percent foreign-origin with zero
migration, 2003-based
percent foreign-origin 2004-based
30
25
20
15
10
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Norway 2005 – 2050. Projection of population of foreign
origin, in two major categories.
Norway 2005-2050. projection of population of foreign origin (percent).
Source: Statistics Norway 2005
25
Western'
Non-Western'
All foreign origin
20
15
10
5
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
United States 1999 – 2100, projection by race and
Hispanic origin.
US population 1999 - 2100 Middle Series, by ethnic group.
Source; US Bureau of the Census 2000.
250
200
Hispanic
White non-Hispanic
Black non-Hispanic
American Indian NH
Asian and Pacific NH
150
100
2099
2095
2091
2087
2083
2079
2075
2071
2067
2063
2059
2055
2051
2047
2043
2039
2035
2031
2027
2023
2019
2015
2011
2007
2003
0
1999
50
Comparison of results of European and
US ‘foreign-origin’ projections.
Projected growth of population of immigrant or foreign origin 2000-2050,
selected countries, as percent of total population.
35
30
Germany medium variant
USA medium variant (excludes black population)
Netherlands base scenario
Denmark 2002- based medium variant
Sweden foreign background 2004 based
Austria 'Compensating' scenario, no naturalisation.
percent
25
20
15
10
5
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Problems in projecting UK ethnic minority
populations
• Base population from (1971), 1991 and 2001
censuses, Labour Force Survey etc.
• Ethnic categories variable.
• No vital registration by ethnic origin (birthplace).
• Different methods of estimating fertility give
different answers.
• No life tables available yet – national rates used.
• Migration data weak, not by ethnic origin;
migration most important variable but most
unstable and most difficult to project.
• Growing importance of ‘mixed’ populations.
Major sources of data on ethnic minority
demographic rates
• Registration of births and deaths (by birthplace of
mother/deceased only, from 1969).
• General Household Survey ethnic origin, but small
sample (13,250), fertility histories from 1984 and period
fertility estimates from ‘own-child’ 1970)
• Labour Force Survey ethnic origin, large sample (qLFS
60,000), no fertility (‘own-child’ method only, from 1965).
• 1991, 2001 Census components of estimates of fertility
and immigration.
• ONS Longitudinal Study links births to mothers, and
deaths, to census data.
Completed Family Size by year of Birth and Ethnic
Origin: GHS women born 1929 – 1984.
N.B. latest cohort incomplete.
6
White
Caribbean
4.8 4.8
5
Black-African
4.2 4.1
4
Indian
3.7
3.5
Pakistani
2.9
3
Bangladeshi
2.9
Chinese
2.4 2.3 2.3
2.3
1.9
2
1.9
1.7
0.8
1
1.0
1.3
1.1
0.9
0.5
0
1929-1944
1945-1959
1960-1984
Source: General Household Survey, 1988-2000/01
The ‘Own-Child’ Method of reconstructing birth-rates in
past and current calendar years: Matching and allocation
process.
TFR, 1965-2000: Comparing UK LFS own-child estimates with
TFR from ONS registration data (total population).
Total Fertility Rate, 1961-2001: from LFS 'Own-child' Estimates and ONS Birth Registration Data.
3.00
2.80
LFS Estimate (UK)
2.60
Birth Registrations UK
2.40
TFR
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
TFR trends of ethnic minority populations 1980 - 2001
TFR tends ethnic minority populations 1980 - 2001.
7-year moving averages. Source: LFS own-child estimates 1974-2001
7.0
White
Black-Caribbean
Black-African
Indian
Pakistani
Banglaldeshi
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1.0
TFR, Indian Women, 1965-2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
Indian TFR moving average (5) 1977 - 2000
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
Logistic fit to Indian TFR change
1975-2001 R2=0.84
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
Indian TFR
1.2
1975
Predicted Values
1981
1978
1987
1984
1993
1990
1999
1996
2002
TFR, Black-African Women, 1965-2001
'Black African' TFR trend 1965 - 2001, with fitted
logarithmic curve. LFS own-child data
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
y = 0.2186Ln(x) + 1.5839
R2 = 0.0944
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
2025
2022
2019
2016
2013
2010
2007
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
1974
1971
1968
1965
0.0
6.0
5.5
Pakistani TFR 1980-2001 and fitted trends to 2026
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
Logarithmic y = -0.8284Ln(x) + 5.5228
R2 = 0.8538
2.5
2.0
Exponential y = 5.087e-0.0294x
R2 = 0.8847
1.5
Linear y = -0.1074x + 4.9331
R2 = 0.8957
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1.0
TFR trends, US populations by race and Hispanic origin, 1960 - 2001
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
All races
Asian / Pacific Islander
Black (race of mother)
Hispanic
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
1.5
Black (race of mother)
Non-Hispanic White
Mean Age at Maternity, 1983-2001 – postponement may
deflate total fertility estimates in some groups.
TFR comparisons, ethnic groups, various sources
Comparison of TFR estimates for ethnic groups
UK
UK
England 1
1995-2001 average 2000-2001 average
TFR
n women
TFR
n women
All
1.74
1.91
Mixed
Black Caribbean 1.67
2.45
Black African
1.56
Black Other
1.62
Indian
3.06
Pakistani
3.55
Bangladeshi
1.50
Chinese
1.93
Other Asian
White
Other
882396
5512
9526
3735
1898
17139
10844
3421
3338
2748
1.63
1.84
1.54
2.21
1.83
1.50
2.72
2.97
1.53
1.58
89643
692
1090
869
171
1895
1302
403
353
584
London
England 2
2003
2002
200
TFR
TFR
TFR
1.73
1.73
1.72
1.55
2.07
1.52
1.50
2.24
2.06
1.39
1.97
1.62
1.64
1.24
1.83
2.52
4.03
1.54
3.10
3.60
1.08
2.38
4.52
2.22
All non-White
88388 2.12
16324
Source: England 1:Large and Ghosh, 2004 t 3, London: Klodawski 2004 t.10 p. 14
England 2 Rees in press table 6, UK Coleman and Smith 2005
1.56
4.68 Mixed
1.35 Black
2.13 Asian
0.93 Chinese
Mortality
• Mortality statistics: for minority groups, ASMRs difficult
to compute in many age-groups: small numbers, under-20s
deficient. Overall SMRs in E&W slightly higher than
average for Asians, Africans; lower for Caribbean.
• IMR mostly higher.
• For initial projections England and Wales life tables used,
projected to 2051 according to GAD 2004 assumptions.
• More complete overseas data may help (Norway, US).
• Large and Ghosh (2006), and Rees (in press) used
differential SMRs derived from geographical areas.
Estimated life table for immigrants born in the West Indies,
2001 (qx)
England and Wales, immigrants born in the West Indies, qx 2001
1
qx WI males UN 1 parameter
qx WI males actual data
WI female real IMR
0.1
qx WI males real IMR
0.01
0.001
85 plus
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
1-4
Under 1
0.0001
Expectation of life at birth, immigrant groups in England and
Wales 2001.
Table 8. Comparison of expectation of life at birth, immigrant groups in England and Wales
2001
Expectation
of life at birth
Ratio to
E&W
age-stand’d
E&W
Model life-table
IMR
rate / 10000 inverse ratio fit to male age-groups 75+
(lowest median deviation)
Place of birth
m
f
m
f
m
f
m
f
m
f
E&W 1999-01 75.58 80.31 6.2 5.0 100 100 1150 775 100 100 74.79 CD West*
Bangladesh
74.85 81.97 4.9 4.1
99 102 1225 725
94 107 73.43 CD East
East Africa
75.54 80.89 7.9 6.5 100 101 1150 770 100 101
India
76.01 79.82 6.4 5.2 101 99 1150 825 100
94
Pakistan
75.51 80.34 12.5 10.3 100 100 1160 810
99
96 74.50 UN General**
West Africa
74.46 81.47 11.9 9.8
99 101 1275 725
90 107 74.50 CD North
West Indies
74.97 80.93 11.0 9.0
99 101 1200 770
96 101 74.41 CD North
China
77.66 81.81 5.6 4.6 103 102 1000 660 115 117 77.48 CD North
*(North gave 75.97), ** (closest average e0 CD North 75.67), Age-standardised rates Griffiths and Brock (2004),
ONS Mortality by country of birth in England and Wales 2001-2003, Model Life Tables from Mortpak COMPAR
Estimating net ethnic migration
• IPS TIM Migration data by residence / birthplace turned into ethnic
flows with LFS or Census data (Rees in press, on ethnic origin of
recent migrants, and Large and Ghosh 2006).
• Projecting future overall level difficult: GAD assume constant net level
to 2074 but at lower level (145k) than actual current ONS figure (185k
net in 2005).
• Recent trends and policy suggest further increase in most components
except asylum; initial projections here assume recent average level, or
zero, only.
• Longer term: Eastern European flow may fall with population decline
and economic growth; Indian prosperity may promote some return
migration; chronic problems in Africa may increase pressure despite
asylum restrictions.
Actual net migration trends, GAD projections (1000s) and
curve fitted to 1992-2005 data. Sources: ONS and GAD
GAD Net immigration assumptions, and ONS data, 1996 - 2005 (1000s)
GAD PP 1996
GAD PP 1998
300
GAD PP 2000
Actual (pre-2001 census)
250
Actual (post-2001 census)
GAD 2002-based
200
Fitted logarithmic curve to actual post-census data (r2=0.83)
GAD PP 2004
150
100
50
0
-50
2049
2046
2043
2040
2037
2034
2031
2028
2025
2022
2019
2016
2013
2010
2007
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
-100
UK population projections 2004-71, 2004-based, GAD
Principal Projection and variant migration assumptions.
UK population projections 2004 - 2071. 2004-based, variant migration
assumptions (millions).
Source : Government Actuary's Department 2005.
80
75
70
65
60
2004-based PP 255 - 145k
55
2004-based high migration 285 - 205k
2004-based low migration 225k - 85k
50
2004-based natural change
45
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2031
2036
2041
2046
2051
2056
2061
2066
2071
Another (semi) official view
(Home Office RDS Occasional Paper no 67, 2001).
Spouse migration to the UK 1973 - 2005 (thousands)
Spouse migration by sex and NC origin, UK 1973-2005
Source: Home Office acceptances for settlement.
40000
35000
All husbands
All wives
30000
NC wives
NC husbands
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
0
Labour migration by work permit, UK 1973- 2005
Work permits holders and dependants admitted, UK 1973-2005.
Source: Home Office
160000
140000
≥12 months
<12 months
120000
dependants
total
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
0
Growth of male South Asian ethnic minority
populations of marriageable age, and entry-clearance
applications for wives/fiancees 1981-2001.
Trends in age-group size and spouse entry applications from Indian subContinent, Great Britain 1981-2001. Source: LFS, Census, Home Office.
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1981
1986
1991
Wives/fiancees entry clearance applications, ISC
1996
2001
South Asian Males 15-24 / 10
Birthplace of foreign-born immigrants in the UK describing themselves as
Guyana
Indian
2500
Other New
Commonwealth
Other Africa
2000
Mauritius
1500
N
Sri Lanka
Malawi, Nyasaland
(Malawi)
1000
Zanzibar (Tanzania)
500
Uganda
Kenya
Period of arrival
Source: all foreign born persons present in the UK Labour Force Survey, 1991-2001 (Autumn Quarters)
Note: survivorship issue! (immigrants had to survive until the period 1990-2001, and had to remain)
1995-2001
1990-1994
1985-1989
1980-1984
1975-1979
1970-1974
1965-1969
1960-1964
1955-1959
1950-1954
1945-1949
1940-1944
0
India
Some UK projections
• Choices: to constrain or not to constrain? separate
components or interactive? Migration numbers or
rates?
• Various approaches for England by Large and
Ghosh (2006); Rees (2006 and in press) and Bains
(2006) for London.
• Diversity in fertility rates and trend
• Diversity in migration levels
• Mortality assumed to be England and Wales
average
• ‘Mixed’ populations and their generation only
considered experimentally.
Ethnic projections: summary of assumptions
Pop.
Total Fertility
Net migration
(1000s)
White British,
Scottish, Irish
White non-British
Mixed
Asian Bangladeshi
Asian Indian
Asian Pakistani
Asian Other
Black African
Black Caribbean
Black Other
Chinese
Other
Total non-white
All groups
this study
ONS
GL DMAG
2001-2
UK
England
London
UK
England
2001
2001
2001
2002-3 this study
ONS
52730
1.60
1.63
1.24
-50
-46.7
1423
677
283
1053
840
248
485
566
98
247
231
4728
58882
1.49
1.80
3.08
1.60
3.00
1.75
2.43
1.70
1.43
1.42
1.74
1.63
1.49
1.62
2.06
1.41
2.24
1.97
1.94
1.46
1.52
1.39
1.62
1.63
3.60
1.54
3.10
2.38
2.53
1.83
4.03
0.08
4.52
-
50
10.0
4.0
21.0
9.3
19.0
30.0
2.5
0.5
30.0
30.0
46.7
9.5
3.4
19.6
5.4
14.9
33.2
1.2
0.4
30.0
30.6
156.3
156.3
148.2
148.2
Projection of UK populations 2001-2051, combined
into three major groups.
Assumptions: near-convergent fertility, constant migration, mortality as in GAD 2004-based PP.
Percent of UK population in three major ethnic categories, 2001 - 2051, assuming
net annual inflow of 50,000 white non-British population
100
90
80
70
60
British, Scottish, Irish
non-white ethnic minority
white non-British
50
40
30
20
10
0
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
2046
2051
Projection of UK ethnic minority populations 2001-51,
grouped into ‘non-white’ and ‘white non-British’, to show the
importance of migration.
Projection of UK ethnic minority populations 2001-2051 (1000s).
Assumptions: net migration as estimated for 2001, non-white fertility declining from 2001, mortality declining acording
to 2004-based GAD PP.
25,000
UK non-white ethnic minority population with current migration
UK non-white ethnic minority population without migration
20,000
white non-British or Irish
white non-British without migration
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
2046
2051
Projection of UK Black populations and ‘Mixed’
(without intergenerational transfers) 2001-2051
(1000s).
Population projections, UK 2001-2051, Black groups and Mixed (1000s).
Assumes falling fertility, net migration as 2001 and falling death rates according to GAD 2004-based PP. Not
constrained to national population total. Does not include mixed unions.
4,000
3,500
Black African
Black Caribbean
Black Other
Mixed
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
2046
2051
Projection of UK Asian populations and
‘Other’, 2001-2051 (1000s).
Projection of UK population 2001-2051, Asian groups and Other (1000s)
3,500
3,000
2,500
Asian Bangaldeshi
Asian Indian
Asian Pakistani
Asian Other
Chinese
Other
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
2046
2051
Projected rank order of ethnic groups 2001-2051
2001
2026
2051
1 Indian
Indian
African
2 Pakistani
African
Indian
3 Mixed
Pakistani
Other
4 Caribbean
Other
Chinese
5 African
Chinese
Pakistani
6 Bangladeshi
Mixed
Mixed
7 Other Asian
Other Asian
Other Asian
8 Chinese
Caribbean
Caribbean
9 Other
Bangladeshi
Bangladeshi
10 Other Black
Other Black
Other Black
Note: convergent fertility, migration constant at 2001 levels, mortality declining on GAD assumptions, no mixed unions considered.
Contribution of Mixed Births to Total
Births by Ethnic Group of mother, UK,
1992-2001
45
40.7
40
35.3
% Mixed Births
35
30
25
20
16.6
12.8
15
8.9
10
4.1
5
1.5
Source: Quarterly Labour Force Surveys, 1992-2001 (Autumn Quarters)
White
Bangladeshi
Pakistani
Indian
BlackAfrican
Caribbean
Chinese
0
Ethnic origin of children born 1990-2000 compared
with ethnic origin of mothers, England 2001.
(from 2001 Census: source ONS table CO 431)
Distribution of ethnic origin of children born to mothers of given ethnic origin (percent) i.e.column percentages. 'Mixed' categories amalgamated.
All children born 1990-2001 in census
Ethnic origin of mother
British
Irish
Oth. White All mixed
Indian
Pakistani BangladeshiOth. Asian Caribbean African Oth. Black Chinese
British
97.16
64.43
44.51
28.26
1.77
1.88
2.81
5.97
2.53
2.26
6.21
5.36
Irish
0.09
25.66
0.31
0.21
0.03
0.01
0.00
0.10
0.04
0.02
0.08
0.09
Other White
0.42
3.64
46.48
3.48
0.23
0.11
0.15
1.24
0.43
0.55
1.49
0.59
All mixed
2.06
5.43
6.45
55.51
6.12
1.86
1.44
11.01
16.54
5.45
16.71
18.61
Indian
0.04
0.10
0.18
0.77
87.81
1.05
0.67
4.94
0.22
0.29
0.29
0.26
Pakistani
0.06
0.11
0.19
1.16
1.46
92.75
1.14
5.29
0.17
0.25
0.30
0.26
Bangladeshi
0.02
0.05
0.14
0.34
0.44
0.39
91.99
1.48
0.07
0.13
0.10
0.11
Other Asian
0.02
0.06
0.28
1.19
1.72
1.62
1.32
67.66
0.36
0.54
0.40
0.17
Black Caribbean 0.03
0.09
0.16
3.96
0.09
0.04
0.05
0.32
70.36
1.50
7.48
0.13
Black African
0.03
0.15
0.53
2.18
0.13
0.09
0.13
0.43
2.37
83.99
5.89
0.14
Other Black
0.02
0.08
0.22
1.93
0.04
0.04
0.07
0.28
6.80
4.87
60.54
0.06
Chinese
0.03
0.06
0.09
0.25
0.05
0.04
0.05
0.09
0.04
0.03
0.11
73.32
Other Ethnic Group
0.03
0.14
0.45
0.74
0.11
0.12
0.17
1.20
0.08
0.11
0.39
0.91
all
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
Source - ONS commissioned table CO 431
Other
12.60
0.10
2.60
28.68
0.52
0.49
0.23
1.87
0.18
0.54
0.34
1.13
50.72
100.00
all
84.78
0.36
1.91
3.50
2.17
2.15
0.89
0.55
1.11
1.48
0.37
0.35
0.40
100.00
6219445
British
Irish
Other White
All mixed
Indian
Pakistani
Bangladeshi
Other Asian
Black Caribbea
Black African
Other Black
Chinese
Other Ethnic G
columns
rows
Projection of Mixed populations, and Caribbean,
with and without inter-generational contributions,
UK 2001 – 2056 (thousands).
Growth of mixed populations with fertility contributions from selected
other groups, UK 2001 - 2051 (thousands). Fertility contributions from British, African,
Caribbean, Chinese, Other Black, Other.
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
Mixed
Mixed plus British, African, West
Indian, Chinese, Other, Other Black
Black Caribbean
Black Caribbean minus mixed
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
2046
2051
2056
Probabilistic projection 2001-2100:
Mixed populations as a proportion of the
total UK population
Uk,Mix ed,Both Sex es
Fra cti les
0.45
0.40
0.35
Pro portion
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
Year
S er gei 's Offi ce PI II, fil e: D:\I IASA2005\M inorities \resul ts\[ chart s_OK_2100_ok_new2_2_del.x ls] ,01-Mar -05
13:22
2100
2095
2090
2085
2080
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
0.00
Probabilistic projections of the UK –
average results
UK Version 2 probabilistic projection: mean of percent of each major ethnic
group in the total population, 2001 - 2100. Source: Coleman and Scherbov
2005.
100
90
80
70
60
White
Black
Asian
Mixed
50
40
30
20
10
2100
2095
2090
2085
2080
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2001
0
Probabilistic projection of the UK – population distribution
by sex, age and major group in 2050.
(green = White, beige = Asian, black = Black, red = Mixed)
Source: Coleman and Scherbov
2005.
Age
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
500.0
UK,Population by age, sex and major ethnic group - 2050
males
400.0
females
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
100.0
Population (thousands)
200.0
300.0
400.0
Period of Birth
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
500.0
Migration scenarios – escaping from linear
projection
Non-British white – reduction expected as economies of East European source countries grow. BUT major new
inflow likely if Turkey joins EU with labour migration rights.
South Asia – likely return migration of better-skilled to India, but spouse migration likely to continue or increase
with growth of ethnic population in UK.
Africa – continued asylum pressure likely with population growth, chronic political and economic problems and
global warming.; also from other parts of third world.
China – Student inflow likely to continue but economic growth and labour shortage may reverse other flows.
Political stability not certain.
In general asylum flows have fallen regardless of policy in receiving countries.
Illegal immigration and overstaying may already be very high, likely to increase in absence of substantial
reform of control and statistics.
Amnesty would make very large transient impact.
Very long term trend probably towards reduction of most forms of migration.
UK Immigration policy likely to become slightly more restrictive with present government, maybe more so if
government changes.
Conclusions
• Projections of population by ethnic origin in UK
are possible but with difficulty.
• Most sensitive and unpredictable variable is
migration, not fertility or mortality.
• Substantial growth, and re-alignment of relative
size, of some groups is almost inevitable.
• ‘Mixed’ groups gaining in importance – multiple
origins may eventually make ethnic categories less
meaningful.
• Next steps to include migration scenarios.