Professor Helen Margetts, Oxford Internet Institute,
University of Oxford
Reporting on research funded by
JOSEPH ROWNTREE REFORM TRUST
LSE LONDON
21st April 2006
The Far-Right in London
Peter John
Helen Margetts
David Rowland
Stuart Weir
Research Evidence
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8 exit polls of 567 voters after 2004 European elections, 10th
June 2004: Folkestone, Bristol, Birmingham, Walsall, Newport,
Glasgow, Basildon and Luton, funded by JRCT.
2 focus groups of voters in 2004 European elections 24th June
2004 in Northampton (postal voting area), funded by JRCT
2004 State of the Nation poll of 2,373 citizens across Britain
between 26th May 2004 and 4th June 2004, funded by JRRT.
2004 London Elections Study, poll of 1474 voters straight after
European & London elections 10th June 2004, funded by ESRC,
co-funded by JRCT
2 focus groups of younger (below 45) and older (above 45)
citizens in Dagenham in March 2005, funded by JRRT
Analysis of 2004 election results, census data, performance
indicators in 624 wards across London, funded by JRRT
2004 Election Results in London
Both far-right parties did well in London and European elections of 2004 with
combined share of the vote more than doubling in 2004.
London Mayoral election (1st pref)
BNP
UKIP
BNP+UKIP
London Mayoral election (2nd pref)
BNP
UKIP
BNP+UKIP
London Assembly election
BNP
UKIP
BNP+UKIP
European Election (in London)
BNP
UKIP
BNP+UKIP
2000
2004
0.9
1.9
2.8
3.0
6.0
9.0
2.6
2.5
5.1
3.7
10.1
13.8
2.7
2.0
4.7
4.7
8.2
12.9
1999
2004
1.6
5.4
7.0
4.0
12.2
16.2
Source: London Election Results, 2004
By 2005, far-right entering mainstream of London politics
(in contrast to conventional view that far-right plays a role only on lunatic
fringe of British politics)
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UKIP won two seats in the London Assembly (with
8.2% of vote)
BNP narrowly missed gaining a seat in the London
Assembly (with 4.7% of vote)
UKIP won one of the nine seats in the London region
of the European elections
Survey Evidence
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23 % of Londoners either have voted or would
consider voting for the BNP in the future (London
Elections Study, 2004).
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24 % of Londoners ‘might vote’ for the BNP in the
future (JRRT State of the Nation poll, 2004)
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45% of respondents said that they ‘might vote’ for
BNP and/or UKIP in the future while 24% said that
they ‘liked’ BNP and/or UKIP (London Elections Study,
2004).
BNP easily most unpopular party
‘Like’/’Dislike’ feelings toward political parties
in England, 2004
Lab
Lib Dem
Green
Con
UKIP
BNP
% +ve
%DK
45
33
22
28
19
8
18
38
41
29
33
27
%-ve
36
29
38
43
47
66
% net
+ve
+9
+4
-16
-15
-28
-58
Source: State of the Nation, 2004
N=1,474 (all respondents)
More positive feelings for BNP in
London than in England as a whole
‘Might vote’ for the BNP ‘in the future’ (as
opposed to ‘could never vote for’)
24% for London,
20% for England and
17% for Britain
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‘Like’ BNP (score of greater than 4 on a 1 to 7
thermometer scale from dislike a lot to like a lot)
15 % for London
8 % for England
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Source: State of the Nation Poll, 2004
High importance ascribed to immigration –
particularly by UKIP/BNP
In 2004 European election exit poll 25 % of
respondents felt that immigration was ‘the
most important issue facing Britain today’
- above unemployment (5%) and fight against
terrorism (20%), exceeded only by public
services (47%)
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77% of BNP and 53% of UKIP supporters
chose immigration as most important issue
- 24 % of Conservative/Lib Dem supporters, 10 %
of Labour
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Evidence from focus groups
‘Blair should be saying “Look at this…why?” ’
Immigration the main issue
‘We’re up in arms about immigration’.
‘I didn’t choose to emigrate…I chose to stay in my
country…they chose to emigrate….I had no choice as
to who came to my country’.
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The major parties have failed
‘They are the ones that let them in’.
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Policy solutions
Australia and Canada have ‘got it right….: ‘we can’t go
there without 100 grand’….. ‘here we just have a free
NHS’.
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Evidence from focus groups
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Those identifying immigration as key issue do
not see themselves as racist – more that BNP is
an alternative, untested party about which they
know little
‘worth a try’ voting for smaller parties.
‘just how close they can get to the British nerve as
possible without being racist’
‘I voted BNP……then I saw that documentary……then I felt
I shouldn’t have done, I regretted it’
Evidence from focus groups
‘Blair should be saying “Look at this…why?” ’
Immigration as a symbol for other policy
discontents
‘the more immigrants we have…..we are spreading our
money too thinly’
‘Quite a lot of each borough’s council tax goes on asylum
seekers’…..
‘They say they have only allocated 38 properties to
asylum seekers….I know for a fact that most asylum
seekers in my block have been offered a property…. ‘
‘There are so many African children going to school….I
don’t begrudge the education…but they are taking
more and more room in our schools’.
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Link between UKIP and BNP I
1st and 2nd preferences for London Mayor,
2004
2nd preference
BNP UKIP Con Lib D Lab
1st preference:
BNP
49.2 22.0 7.6 7.7
UKIP
21.9
35.7 14.0 10.1
Con
6.9 26.8
40.2 10.5
Lib Dem
2.1 8.3 26.0
33.9
Lab
1.6 4.8 11.9 45.5
Source: London Election Results, 2004
Link between BNP and UKIP support II
(correlation of 0.89 for Assembly elections)
30
20
10
0
0
10
20
30
UKIP London Member (Assembly) Elections 2004 votes percentages
Socio-economic determinants of
BNP support
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C2s most likely to vote BNP (correlation 0.7) - wards
with more AB and C1 voters lowest BNP vote – wards
with more C2s, Ds and Es higher levels of BNP vote
BNP support drawn from older age groups - lower in
wards with higher proportion of younger people
(correlation -0.432)
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Education levels in borough an indicator of BNP support
(correlation of 0.624 for ‘no qualifications’)
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BNP vote higher in wards with higher proportions of
white people (but racial mix of borough poor indicator)
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No link between BNP support and proportion of benefit
claimants
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No link between BNP support and number of asylum
seekers accepted by council
Conclusions
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Significant and growing levels of support for far-right
parties in London, with strong local variation
Strong positive relationship between support for BNP
and UKIP and linkages between UKIP & BNP in voters’
minds – what happens post-UKIP?
Higher BNP support most likely in localities with higher
proportions of residents:
• in C2, D and E (especially C2)
• with no qualifications
• in older age groups
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Immigration is key policy issue for significant subset of
Londoners – an issue on which main parties are seen to
have failed
Immigration has become a symbol for other issues eg.
housing, education.
Conclusions
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All these factors suggest a strong showing for the farright is possible in 2006 local elections
Policy misconceptions (particularly on the relationship
between immigration and local issues) are fuelled by
BNP activities and feed into electoral support for farright
These misconceptions should be tackled at local level.