Seminar in honour of Alan Holmans
Monday 7 December 2015
London School of Economics
Housing need and demand in Wales 2011 to
2031
Sarah Monk
Housing need and demand in Wales 2011 to 2031
•
This turned out to be Alan’s final piece of work although it had
started in March 2014.
•
The delays were partly related to data availability. Census
data in the format required for Alan’s method were not
available, so instead he updated previous estimates using
survey data.
•
But equally important was Alan’s view that straight line
projections based on 2001-2011 would produce underestimates of housing need and demand, especially in the
more distant future.
An alternative household projection
•
So Alan produced two sets of estimates, one based on the
official household projections for Wales, and one based on an
“alternative” projection in which the impacts of the 2008
recession and the fall in inward migration during the period
are faded out over time.
•
This of course produced higher estimates of the need for new
housebuilding in both the private (market) sector and the
affordable (social) sector.
Census data
• Meanwhile, the census data that Alan had originally requested
became available so both sets of estimates had to be done
again.
• Census data at a small spatial scale also allowed a regional
breakdown of estimates to be made, something Alan had not
done using survey data because he did not consider it
sufficiently robust.
• By now in hospital following a collapsed knee, Alan somehow
produced the revised national estimates and the new set of
regional estimates using as usual a pocket calculator.
• Sadly he died before he could proof-read the final report, so it
was completed without him – thanks particularly to Chihiro
Udagawa.
Results
•
•
•
Based on the principal projection, it is estimated that over the
period 2011 to 2031 an additional 174,000 units (houses or flats)
will be needed in Wales, or 8,700 a year. Of these 60% would be
in the market sector (5,200 a year, 104,000 over the period) and
40% in the social sector (3,500 a year, 70,000 over the period).
The alternative projection leads to a higher estimate of need and
demand: 240,000 units over the period, or 12,000 a year, with
58% in the market sector (7,000 a year, 140,000 over the period)
and 42% in the social sector (5,000 a year, 100,000 over the
period).
Historically, since 1991 building rates in Wales have been
declining, from 9,500 a year on average between 1991/2 and
1995/6, to just 7,360 for the period 2006/7 to 2010/11.
Implications
•
•
The implications of Alan’s analysis are that if housing need and
demand in Wales is to be met, there needs to be a return to rates
of new housebuilding not seen for 20 years, as well as an increase
in the rate of growth of affordable housing.
I do think it is interesting how often Alan has been proved right –
not necessarily in terms of the actual numbers, but the general
magnitude and direction of change. Wales, like England, has not
produced sufficient new homes for the increase in households,
and if it sticks to the “principal” projection, it is very likely to fail to
do so in the future.