SCUD Tracks the Tsunami Debris Field
Nikolai Maximenko and Jan Hafner
March 11, 2011
January 25, 2012
June 25, 2011
September 25, 2011
February 14, 2012
March 11, 2012
To help with the tsunami-debris search after the Great Tohoku Earthquake, Nikolai Maximenko and Jan
Hafner used their Surface CUrrent Diagnostic (SCUD) Model, releasing in the model 678,305 particles along
the NE coast of Japan, weighted by population density along the coast. SCUD produces high-resolution
analyses of near-surface currents based on satellite data of ocean topography and surface winds. SCUD
currents estimate the motions of floating objects having sufficient density to be little directly affected by
surface winds. Shown is a selection of the debris-cloud maps over the first year.
By June 25, the debris had moved toward Midway and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National
Monument. Then currents developed keeping the debris from Midway, as confirmed by an expedition in
late November and December. The debris cloud approached Midway in February, but backed off a bit in
March. Among significant confirmations was the STS Pallada report of finding a vessel verified as lost during
the tsunami (red line in Sept. 25 plot shows stretch where debris was sighted, rhombus where boat was
found, red circle denotes maximum debris density). Consistent with the model, no tsunami debris has been
confirmed at Midway as of mid-March 2012.