SCUD Model Tracks Tsunami Driftage
Nikolai Maximenko and Jan Hafner
March 11, 2012
December 11, 2012
June 11, 2012
March 11, 2013
The tsunami from the Great Tohoku Earthquake in
March 2011 washed about 1.5 million tons of driftage
into the Pacific Ocean, posing threats to ships and
coastlines. Based on satellite data of ocean topography
and surface winds, the Surface CUrrent Diagnostic
(SCUD) Model, developed by Nikolai Maximenko and
Jan Hafner, has tracked the debris field since the
disaster. The first version tracked solely using ocean
currents; the refined model includes tracers sensitive to
windage: objects sitting high above the water, such as
buoys or boats, are affected also by winds (orange) and
generally move more quickly than objects partially or
almost fully submerged (purple), such as timber. The
images above show the debris movement at 3-month
intervals, beginning a year after the tsunami.
September 11, 2012
June 11, 2013
The confirmed sightings of tsunami driftage have all
been consistent with the model’s forecast: tsunami
items began washing up on the coasts of Washington
and Oregon at the end of 2011, and by March 2011,
there had been many sightings; in September 2012,
Hawaii began seeing its first debris, as the front of the
debris field is now recirculating west. Also consistent
with the model, the California coast has seen hardly
any tsunami driftage.
Issues still to be verified include (1) the amount of
low-windage driftage still making its way east toward
North America, and (2) the amount of driftage now
moving west along the equator. Future observations
will be used to further refine the SCUD model.