FIGURE 11.5 Projected trend of the earth’s surface temperature increase. Upper curve: pessimistic scenario, based on “business-asusual” fossil fuel consumption. Lower curve: optimistic scenario, based on slowing down of fossil fuel consumption. Middle curve: in between the worst and best scenarios. (Data from Houghton, J. T., G. J. Jenkins, and J. J. Ephraums, eds. Climate Change, the IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1995.) Energy and the Environment James A. Fay / Dan S. Golomb Copyright © 2011 by Oxford University Press, Inc. FIGURE 11.6 Observed average global surface temperature deviation,1850–2000.The scale on the y–axis (°C) is indexed to the 1970 global average surface temperature. (Data points from Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2000; best-fit curve by authors.) Energy and the Environment James A. Fay / Dan S. Golomb Copyright © 2011 by Oxford University Press, Inc. FIGURE 11.7 Rates of carbon exchange between biosphere and atmosphere and between ocean and atmosphere. Also shown are emissions from fossil fuel combustion and forest burning (Gt y–1). Also listed are carbon reservoirs in soil, ocean, fossil fuel, and atmosphere (Gt). Energy and the Environment James A. Fay / Dan S. Golomb Copyright © 2011 by Oxford University Press, Inc. FIGURE 11.8 Trend of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere 1000–2000 AD (Data from Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. Trends Online: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Oak Ridge, CA: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2000.) Energy and the Environment James A. Fay / Dan S. Golomb Copyright © 2011 by Oxford University Press, Inc. FIGURE 11.9 CO2 concentration trend, 1958–2010. (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. Oak Ridge, CA: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2010.) Energy and the Environment James A. Fay / Dan S. Golomb Copyright © 2011 by Oxford University Press, Inc. FIGURE 11.10 Globally averaged CH4 concentration trend, 1980–2009. (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. Oak Ridge, CA: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2010.) Energy and the Environment James A. Fay / Dan S. Golomb Copyright © 2011 by Oxford University Press, Inc.