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The Next Generation of High-School Graduates: Who and Where They
Are: Chronicle of Higher Ed table and graphics, from WICHE reports, 3-19-08
www.wiche.edu/policy/Knocking.
Projections of Graduates of Public High Schools, by Racial and Ethnic Group
Projected Change in Numbers of High-School Graduates by State, 2004-5 to 2021-22
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SOURCE: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education
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PROJECTIONS OF HIGH-SCHOOL GRADUATES BY STATE (In thousands)
from 04-5
2004-5
2010- 2012- 2014- 2016- 2018- 2021- to 14- to 21(Actual) 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 11
13
15
17
19
22
15
22
Alabama
43.1 44.5 46.2 47.0
46.6
46.1
46.2
47.5
46.0
45.3
+7
+5
Alaska
7.2
8.3
8.3
7.8
7.5
7.2
7.2
7.4
7.2
6.7
0
-8
Arizona
61.9 73.5 78.0 81.1
82.7
87.7
92.9
99.9 104.8 112.7 +50 +82
Arkansas
27.9 29.2 30.6 30.7
29.7
29.8
31.3
32.5
31.9
33.4 +12 +20
California
387.7 410.5 423.6 422.1 419.5 414.0 399.5 394.3 400.1 407.5
+3
+5
Colorado
47.0 49.1 50.7 49.3
50.2
49.4
50.4
53.8
59.1
60.1
+7 +28
Connecticut
41.4 43.4 43.6 43.3
42.2
40.5
39.4
39.7
39.0
38.4
-5
-7
Delaware
8.7
8.9
9.1
9.5
9.5
9.4
9.4
9.8
9.8
10.3
+8 +19
D.C.
3.8
4.5
4.9
5.1
5.2
4.5
4.1
3.9
4.0
4.1
+9
+9
Florida
150.6 173.2 181.8 169.5 178.2 182.2 185.0 192.9 198.6 210.8 +23 +40
Georgia
78.1 84.3 88.6 89.6
91.2
91.5
95.3 101.2 107.5 109.8 +22 +40
Hawaii
13.4 13.4 14.1 14.3
13.7
13.4
13.1
12.8
12.7
13.6
-2
+2
Idaho
16.3 16.9 17.3 17.6
17.7
17.9
18.9
20.7
21.1
22.8 +16 +40
Illinois
137.6 142.7 147.4 147.8 144.4 143.7 137.5 138.2 140.2 137.5
0
0
Indiana
62.8 68.6 71.0 71.2
71.1
70.1
69.8
71.4
72.3
72.4 +11 +15
Iowa
36.1 37.9 38.3 38.1
37.6
36.2
36.8
37.9
37.7
38.5
+2
+7
Kansas
32.2 31.2 31.9 31.2
30.1
29.4
28.8
30.1
30.3
30.5
-11
-5
Kentucky
42.0 41.9 43.8 44.2
42.8
42.2
42.1
43.4
43.3
44.2
0
+5
Louisiana*
44.7 40.1 38.9 38.6
35.1
33.1
29.9
29.3
29.6
29.3
-33
-35
Maine
16.2 17.0 17.3 16.6
16.2
15.9
16.0
15.3
15.7
15.8
-1
-3
Maryland
62.8 65.9 67.7 67.6
65.0
63.2
60.8
58.8
61.9
62.5
-3
-1
Massachusetts
70.2 72.8 73.9 72.4
69.3
67.4
64.7
65.1
65.6
62.9
-8
-10
Michigan
110.8 114.4 119.4 117.3 111.2 106.0 102.1 102.3 102.6
97.0
-8
-12
Minnesota
63.3 64.4 65.2 63.8
62.1
60.1
59.7
61.1
62.7
64.6
-6
+2
Mississippi
26.4 27.3 27.8 28.1
27.8
26.7
25.5
26.3
26.1
26.4
-3
0
Missouri
65.7 68.0 68.3 69.7
68.1
64.9
64.9
67.3
66.8
68.9
-1
+5
Montana
10.9 10.8 11.2 11.0
10.1
9.7
9.7
9.8
9.9
10.3
-11
-6
Nebraska
22.3 22.0 22.9 22.7
21.7
21.1
21.0
21.8
22.5
23.3
-6
+4
Nevada
16.4 18.6 20.8 21.5
22.1
23.8
24.5
26.6
28.5
31.6 +49 +92
New
16.2 16.8 17.0 16.5
15.6
15.1
14.5
14.2
14.8
14.2
-10
-12
Hampshire
New Jersey
99.2 109.1 112.4 111.3 111.1 108.4 106.8 108.2 109.2 108.7
+8 +10
New Mexico
18.8 18.9 18.9 19.3
18.9
18.1
18.4
19.3
18.6
19.7
-2
+5
New York
181.4 189.0 191.6 188.4 183.9 175.4 165.2 161.4 162.0 158.6
-9
-13
North Carolina
80.7 87.3 90.3 91.2
92.1
93.4
96.6 102.6 106.7 108.1 +20 +34
North Dakota
8.0
7.7
7.6
7.4
7.2
6.6
6.4
6.2
6.1
6.4
-20
-21
Ohio
130.5 133.8 136.1 137.7 133.1 127.3 123.5 125.9 124.5 121.9
-5
-7
Oklahoma
37.6 38.1 38.5 38.3
37.3
36.3
36.9
38.2
38.9
39.7
-2
+6
Oregon
35.0 34.3 34.8 34.8
33.5
33.2
33.4
34.7
34.7
34.9
-5
0
Pennsylvania
143.4 147.8 150.0 148.3 144.5 138.5 133.4 136.4 133.0 133.0
-7
-7
Rhode Island
11.9 12.5 12.8 12.6
12.1
11.5
11.1
9.8
10.9
9.3
-7
-22
South Carolina
36.2 40.6 37.9 37.7
37.8
36.1
35.4
37.2
38.0
38.4
-2
+6
South Dakota
9.1
8.8
9.1
9.0
8.6
8.3
8.2
8.3
8.3
9.0
-10
-2
Tennessee
53.3 55.6 56.8 56.9
55.3
54.7
54.6
57.5
57.6
58.5
+2 +10
Texas
249.5 266.5 275.1 276.8 284.8 292.4 301.8 319.8 330.2 345.0 +21 +38
Utah
31.4 32.5 33.3 34.2
34.3
35.4
38.0
41.1
42.3
44.6 +21 +42
Vermont
8.4
8.4
8.5
8.3
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.6
6.4
6.5
-23
-23
Virginia
80.0 85.1 87.4 87.8
86.9
85.5
84.4
87.9
90.9
95.5
+5 +19
Washington
65.2 69.2 69.3 69.0
68.5
67.0
67.5
69.1
68.5
68.5
+3
+5
West Virginia
18.0 18.0 18.2 18.7
17.6
17.3
16.6
16.9
16.6
17.0
-7
-6
Wisconsin
69.0 70.1 70.6 69.4
67.6
65.1
64.6
66.5
67.2
68.2
-6
-1
Wyoming
5.7
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.1
4.8
4.9
5.1
4.9
5.5
-12
-2
U.S.
3,096.8 3,254.4 3,340.2 3,320.2 3,280.2 3,228.0 3,189.4 3,275.5 3,314.0 3,361.7 +3% +9%
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