DISCUSSION PAPERS IN ECONOMICS Working Paper No. 99-17 R&D Joint Ventures: The Case of Asymmetric Firms Antje Baerenss Department of Economics, University of Colorado at Boulder Boulder, Colorado October 1999 Center for Economic Analysis Department of Economics University of Colorado at Boulder Boulder, Colorado 80309 © 1999 Antje Baerenss R&D Joint Ventures: The Case of Asymmetric Firms Antje Baerenss Department of Economics University of Colorado October, 1999 Abstract In this paper, a simple model of R&D cooperation is developed to investigate the private versus the social incentives for R&D cooperation in the case of asymmetric firms. The Cournot model with R&D and stochastic innovation before production yields asymmetric equilibria in the production and research stage. The main findings confirm the result of previous studies that R&D cooperation increases welfare for most parameter values. However, welfare may be reduced if cooperation partners are very dissimilar. In the case of strong initial asymmetries the joint venture has an anti-competitive effect, as it tends to preserve the nearmonopoly position of the low cost firm. In addition, this study shows that the welfare results and the willingness to cooperate do not only depend on the spillover parameter but also on the degree of the cost reduction and the initial cost difference between the firms. The results indicate that the firms have different motives for cooperation. In contrast to the symmetric case, the desire of the two firms to cooperate does not coincide for a wide range of parameters. 2 I. Introduction Antitrust regulation, beginning with the Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890, declares illegal every contract or conspiracy in restraint of trade (Sherman Act, §1) and every attempt to monopolize any part of the trade or commerce (Sherman Act, §2). In the 1970s and early 1980s, concerns arose that the antitrust horizontal restraints doctrine unduly discourages desirable collaborative R&D activity1. In response to these concerns, Congress in 1984 enacted the National Cooperative Research Act, which was extended to the National Cooperative Research and Production Act in 1993 to include joint production ventures. The act protects R&D joint ventures (RJVs) and certain qualifying joint production ventures from the strict application of antitrust laws. RJVs are judged under the rule of reason, “taking into account all relevant facts affecting competition, including, but not limited to, effects on properly defined, relevant research, development, product, process, and service markets.”2 The current treatment of RJVs under antitrust regulation is partly based on research that shows that R&D joint ventures, in contrast to general collusive behavior, can increase welfare. Some of that research, such as Ordover and Willig (1985), Grossman and Shapiro (1996), and Jorde and Teece (1989, 1990), approaches the problem from the legal perspective. A relatively large body of industrial organization literature relies on economic models to analyze the effects of cooperative research. The existing models capture the basic characteristics of R&D that make it different from other firm activities. Knowledge as the outcome of R&D can easily be transferred to other users. Even with patent protection there is a certain amount of spillover to rival firms. The innovating firm faces a free-rider problem that tends to reduce R&D effort. The increase in welfare resulting from RJVs is mainly driven by the internalization of these spillover effects. D’Aspremont and Jacquemin (1988) find that in a linear duopoly model with deterministic R&D process cooperation increases welfare for large spillover parameters only. Benefits from information sharing such as eliminating duplicate effort are not considered in their model. Suzumura (1992) generalizes d’Aspremont and Jacquemin’s results for a wide 1 Gellhorn, Kovacic (1994) 2 Areeda, Kaplow (1997) 3 class of oligopoly models. He finds that with large spillovers, not only the non-cooperative equilibrium R&D level but also the cooperative one is socially insufficient at the margin. In the absence of spillovers, the cooperative equilibrium R&D level remains socially too small at the margin, but the non-cooperative outcome is socially excessive. Kamien, Muller, and Zang (1992) allow for R&D coordination, information sharing, or both. They show that RJVs increase welfare also for low spillover parameters if the firms share the R&D output in addition to coordinating their expenditures. These models were designed to study the welfare effects of RJVs without addressing the firms’ willingness to cooperate. Choi (1993) studies the private versus the social incentives to form RJVs and introduces stochastic R&D outcomes. Choi argues that the social benefits from RJVs always exceed the private benefits. In the literature, there are numerous related models that vary in complexity. However, most of them share one common feature: firms are identical. This paper extends previous work in two respects. First, the model allows firms to be heterogeneous in the initial stage of the game. Second, instead of allowing firms to choose the optimal size of the innovation, this paper looks at the effect of a given cost reduction on the incentives to cooperate. Heterogeneity of firms is captured by ex ante differences in marginal costs. Out of a variety of aspects in which real-life firms may differ, marginal cost differences were chosen to keep the model tractable. Adding this feature into a model of R&D cooperation changes the duopoly game in important respects. Initial asymmetry does not only result in asymmetric equilibria. It also leads to different motives for R&D spending and introduces new incentives for and against R&D cooperation. For example, the high cost firm has a smaller market share at the onset of the game. It is eager to catch up with the low cost firm but it is not obvious which strategy the firm would choose. It could spend more on R&D trying to outperform the low cost firm. Alternatively, it could spend less trying to free-ride on the innovation of its rival or it could try to combine forces with the leader in a cooperative agreement. The model also takes into account that firms might be faced with the decision on how much to spend in order to reach a predetermined lower cost level. In other words, a given innovation can vary in its importance, i.e. the cost reduction could be large or small, and the firms can decide how intensively to pursue this innovation. Keeping in mind that there is an industry leader and a follower, reaching the same technological level implies different “prices” 4 from innovation for the two firms. Firm asymmetry and varying innovation size are realistic characteristics of the innovation process. Incorporating them into the model widens the spectrum of equilibrium outcomes and therefore makes the results more applicable to antitrust and technology policy. Furthermore, the confirmation of existing results for the symmetric case with a different model adds to the robustness of these results. In this paper, the simple Cournot model with R&D and stochastic innovation before production yields asymmetric equilibria in the production and research stage, some of which include corner solutions. The main findings, obtained by simulation, confirm the welfare results from the literature for the symmetric case. In the asymmetric case, however, several aspects of the R&D process interact to generate new results on welfare and firm behavior. The two main forces driving the model are the spillover effect and the sharing of R&D results in the RJV. If firms compete in R&D, the spillover effect tends to reduce R&D effort. Cooperation in a RJV allows to internalize the positive externality. If the internalization effect dominates, firms will increase their R&D effort with cooperation. This effect reaches its maximum when the spillover parameter is equal to one. It does not exist in the case of no spillovers. The second important feature of the model, the sharing of information that was gained in the R&D process, only takes effect if firms cooperate in R&D. Setting the spillover parameter equal to one within the joint venture has two effects. The reduction of duplicate effort and the resulting cost savings put a downward pressure on R&D expenditure. Alternatively, for any given R&D expenditure the probability of attaining the lower cost increases. The cost reduction by itself affects firm profits positively. On the other hand, information sharing eliminates the asymmetry between the firms if one of them succeeds. This increases competition between the firms in the production stage. Therefore, the sharing of information has a cost reducing effect but at the same time it can reduce industry profit by eliminating the asymmetry. Without this negative effect on profits, firms could always find a cooperative agreement that weakly increases industry profit. At worst, they could duplicate the non-cooperative outcome with cooperation. When the spillover parameter in the industry is close to one, the information sharing effects disappears and the results are only driven by the internalization of the spillovers. 5 The model shows that the initial cost difference between the firms, the size of the spillover parameter, and the degree of the cost reduction together determine how information sharing and internalization of spillovers affect welfare and firm profits. Depending on the dominance of the effects, parameter regions can be identified in which both firms prefer to compete in R&D, both want to cooperate, or only one firm wants to cooperate. In contrast to the symmetric case, the desire of the firms to cooperate does not coincide for a wide range of parameters. The welfare analysis shows that there are cases in which cooperation decreases welfare. If the initial asymmetry is large, the high cost firm overinvests in R&D. In this case, a RJV has an anti-competitive effect by inducing the high cost firm to reduce its R&D effort. The goal of the joint venture is to preserve the existing asymmetry rather than to facilitate innovation. In all other cases, R&D cooperation increases welfare. Comparing the willingness to cooperate and the effect of cooperation on welfare allows drawing policy implications. If side-payments or other forms of compensation are not feasible, the firms will often fail to agree on a RJV even if the effect on industry profit and welfare would be positive. The next section introduces the general setup of the model. Sections 3 and 4 describe the non-cooperative and the cooperative game, respectively. Welfare comparisons are made in section 5 and section 6 concludes. II. The Model This study builds on the existing literature on research joint ventures. Many aspects of the model are standard formulations, which helps to make the results comparable. Two firms play a two-stage Cournot-Nash game. In stage I, firms invest in R&D to reduce production cost in stage II. In stage II, firms compete in quantities non-cooperatively. Both firms have constant marginal cost (ci), which differ in the beginning of the game. Firm 1 is the low cost firm such that initially c1 < c2. I follow d’Aspremont and Jacquemin (1988), Kamien et al. (1992,1993), and others in using linear demand. For simplicity, the inverse demand is represented by P=1-Q where Q=q1+q2 denotes total industry output. Many authors have chosen a deterministic R&D process, which greatly simplifies the analysis. However, stochastic R&D outcomes are an essential feature of research and development activity. Similar to Choi (1993), I adopt a 6 framework in which firms can invest in R&D to reduce marginal cost from high cost (ciH) to low cost (ciL). Firms either succeed or fail to innovate. The probability of success for firm i is given by xi with 0 x i 1 . This probability is the choice variable of the firm in stage I and it could also be interpreted as the chosen research intensity. The cost of obtaining probability xi is C(x i ) k x i2 . This R&D cost function is convex and represents decreasing returns to scale 2 for R&D expenditures. The parameter k is a positive constant that has a scaling effect. In the current model, k does not vary over firms, which implies equal R&D capabilities of firms. The initial cost difference does not need to originate from differing R&D capability. It could be the case that the firms’ environment differs, e.g. if they are located in different countries. The cost asymmetry could also stem from firm specific dissimilarities such as patents, firm history, and management. It is straightforward to extend the model to differing R&D capabilities. However, differing R&D capabilities might force the results in a way that the low cost firm with higher R&D capability is simply more competitive and drives the opponent out of the market. As in most models on RJVs, there exists a spillover effect that captures the uncompensated flow of knowledge from one firm to the other. In particular, if only one firm succeeds, the other will benefit from the innovator’s cost reduction and reduce its cost by c where c is the cost reduction and 0 1 is the spillover parameter. In addition to the initial cost difference, the nature of the cost reduction has to be specified. Two scenarios come to mind. It could be the case that the firms attempt to improve their existing technology, which implies a cost reduction by a certain amount or a percentage of the initial cost. If both firms succeed, the low cost firm would still be the industry leader. Alternatively, the firms could discover an entirely new technology, implying that both firms can reach the same low cost and the asymmetry can be eliminated. I adopt the latter approach and assume that c2H>c1H and c2L=c1L=cL. Given this specification, the spillover c is asymmetric. If firm 1 fails and 2 succeeds, c1 is the amount by which firm 1 will reduce its cost. In this case, c 1 will equal c1H-cL. If firm 1 is the innovator, c 2 is firm 2’s cost reduction of c2H-cL. As c1H<c2H, c 1< c 2 which implies that firm 2 benefits more at any given spillover parameter that is greater than zero. 7 III. The non-cooperative equilibrium Let me first consider the case in which the firms compete in both the production and the research stage. To find the Cournot-Nash equilibrium of the two-stage game, I solve the game backwards. In stage II, firms know the outcome of the R&D process. There are 4 possible outcomes: i SS denotes the profit of firm i if both firms succeed, i SF if firm i succeeds, the other fails, i FS if firm i fails, the other succeeds, and i FF if both fail. Given the linear demand function, profit for firm i in the output game is: 1 c j 2c i i (P ci )q i which becomes i 3 2 given the optimal output for firm i. The profits for firm 1 in each possible outcome of the R&D process are: SS 1 1 c 2 L 2c1L 1 cL 3 3 FF 1 1 c 2 H 2c1H 3 2 1 (c 2 H c 2 ) 2c1L 3 2 SF 1 1 c 2 L 2(c1H c1 ) 3 2 FS 1 2 2 Similar equations hold for firm 2. To ensure an interior product market equilibrium in the beginning of the game, the cost of the high cost firm c2H has to be less than 1 c1H . This condition allows for corner solutions 2 in production after one firm innovates. All simulation results are for a low cost cL equal to zero. Allowing for a higher cL narrows the solution space because cL has to be lower than c1H. This choice of the low cost does not change the results qualitatively. Diagram 1 illustrates how the numerical results were obtained. 8 Taking the output competition in stage II as given, each firm chooses xi in stage I to maximize expected profit. Firm i’s maximization problem is: x i2 E SS SF FS FF max ( x , x , ) x x x ( 1 x ) ( 1 x ) x ( 1 x )( 1 x ) k (1) i i j i j i i j i i j i i j i 2 xi The first order condition is: (2) iE FF SF FS SF FF x j ( SS i i i i ) i i k x i 0 x i FF SF FS SF FF (3) [ x j ( SS i i i i ) i i k x i]x i 0 The equilibrium probability xi* is given by (4) x *i B j A i Bi k i 1,2 i j k 2 Ai A j where for B j A i Bi k 0 and xi*=0 otherwise. k 2 Ai A j FF SF FS A i SS i i i i FF SF FS A j SS j j j j FF B i SF i i FF B j SF j j The simulation shows that for the high cost firm x2 is always greater than zero and the firm’s reaction function is downward sloping. For the low cost firm, the slope of the reaction function and the intercept change sign depending on the initial cost difference. For 0 , low initial cost of firm 1 and relatively high cost of firm 2, firm 1’s optimal probability is a corner solution with x*1 = 0. The solution moves closer to the corner the higher the cost ratio c2H /c1H. The three possible scenarios are illustrated in diagrams 2 through 4. All equilibria are unique and stable. The stability criterion used is 2 iE x i x j 1 i, j 1,2 i j . This criterion was used by Henriques (1990) in a two-stage R&D 2 iE (x i ) 2 game. Comparing x1* and x2*, i.e. comparing B2A1+B1k and B1A2+B2k yields the following condition: (5) x1* < x2* iff B1 SS k 1FS B 2 SS k FS 2 9 It is easy to show that the right-hand side of the equation is greater than 1 for 0 1 and equal to 1 for 1 . Whether B1 is less than B2 depends on the spillover parameter and on the cost distribution. The simulation shows that condition (5) is satisfied for a wide range of parameters. Result 1: The low cost firm’s probability of success is less than the high cost firm’s probability for most spillover parameters and cost combinations. X1 exceeds x2 by a small amount only if both firms have high initial cost (c1H>0.75) and the spillover parameter lies between 0.3 and 0.7. (See Figure 1) It was noted earlier that the spillover effect benefits the high cost firm more than its rival because the small firm can absorb knowledge from the industry leader. One might expect that with R&D competition the high cost firm therefore reduces its R&D effort to free-ride on the low cost firm. On the other hand, the expected gain from innovation is larger for the high cost firm. It has a low profit in the beginning of the game but it can potentially catch up with or overtake the leader. Result 1 indicates that for the high cost firm the incentive to win the higher “price” tends to be dominant. In a 1997 discussion paper, Roeller et al. develop a deterministic model with heterogeneous firms that does not allow for spillovers. They find that the low cost firm spends more on R&D. My results show that the Roeller et al. finding is specific to their model. IV. R&D cooperation This section describes the two-stage game with a RJV instead of R&D competition. In Stage I firms can now cooperate in R&D, taking the product market competition as given. I define a RJV as a contractual agreement between the two firms that specifies each firm’s contribution and the distribution of the research results. In this model, I follow Choi (1993) and Kamien et al. (1992, 1993) in fixing the spillover parameter at unity if firms cooperate. This means that members of the RJV share R&D results completely. The assumption on the 10 SF FS cost reduction c1L=c2L=cL plus 1 also implies that SS i i i for both firms. The RJV members now choose xi and xj to maximize joint profit. The RJV’s maximization problem is: (6) max x1 , x 2 E RJV ( x 1 x 2 x 1 x 2 ) 2 (1 x 1 )(1 x 2 ) SS FF 1 FF 2 x 12 x 22 k 2 2 The first order conditions for this maximization problem are: (7) ERJV 2 SS 2 SS x 2 (1 x 2 ) 1FF FF 2 0 x 1 (8) ERJV 2 SS 2 SS x 1 (1 x 1 ) 1FF FF 2 0 x 2 Solving for x1 and x2 gives a symmetric solution with: (9) x 1 x 2 x 2 SS 1FF FF 2 k 2 SS 1FF FF 2 x0 Comparing the cooperative and the non-cooperative equilibrium probabilities several observations can be made. For the benchmark case in which firms are identical, the numerical calculations show that for 0 the non-cooperative probability exceeds the cooperative one for each firm. In that case, there are no externalities to internalize. The cost effect of reducing duplicate effort dominates. For 1 , the opposite is true. This confirms previous results that firms underinvest if they compete in R&D and the spillover is high. Holding the spillover parameter constant, the range in which the firms decrease their cooperative R&D effort compared to the non-cooperative outcome increases with the size of the innovation. This indicates that the firms compete more intensely in R&D if the innovation is drastic. In that case, sharing of the R&D results under cooperation eliminates the threat of being driven out of the market and the firms can cut back on their spending. Nevertheless, as will be seen in the next section, the reduction in R&D spending does not outweigh the positive effects of information sharing in welfare terms. Looking at the asymmetric case, the calculations show that the high cost firm tends to reduce its R&D effort with cooperation. For 0 , the cooperative x2 is lower than x2 under 11 competition for all cost combinations. With increasing spillover effect, the cooperative x2 is higher if the firms are relatively similar. If the high cost firm has a very high cost relative to the leader, its competitive R&D effort is always higher than under cooperation. The low cost firm tends to increase its R&D effort with cooperation. The higher the spillover parameter, the larger the cost range (moving from minor to major innovation) for which this is true. Using the equilibrium success probabilities from the cooperative and the noncooperative model, expected profits for each scenario can be computed and compared. Result 2: Expected industry profit is always larger under cooperation for high spillover parameters ( 0.6 ). For lower spillover parameters this is only true for “non-drastic” innovation, i.e. when the potential cost reduction is not too large. The increase of industry profit with cooperation for high spillover parameters is driven by the internalization of the spillovers. Without a RJV, the free-rider problem has a strong decreasing effect on R&D effort. When firms cooperate, R&D effort is chosen to maximize joint profit, thus allowing for a larger expected cost reduction. For low spillover parameters, the externality is less problematic. The information sharing within the RJV becomes more important. With R&D competition and large cost reductions it is possible for one firm to drive its rival out of the market. The firms give up the chance of becoming a monopoly if they decide to cooperate. Therefore, the firms are only willing to form a RJV if the cost reductions are relatively low. For large cost reductions, the negative profit effect of sharing R&D outcomes dominates. When looking at industry profit, willingness to cooperate can be determined by the change in industry profit. If industry profit under cooperation exceeds that under R&D competition, there is a gain to be split between the firms. However, in order to reach a cooperative agreement that both firms can accept, both firms need to gain by choosing the cooperative research intensity or they have to be allowed to bargain. The next result indicates that bargaining and side-payments are important in the case of firm asymmetries. 12 Result 3: The gains from cooperation are distributed unevenly (See Figure 2). The cases in which firm 1 and firm 2 gain from cooperation often do not coincide. The regions in Figure 2 are obtained by computing and comparing individual firm profit under R&D competition and under cooperation. In the cooperative case, both firms have the same research probability from equation (9) and they also pay for this probability themselves. If under this condition cooperation yields a higher profit for the firm, it is said to be willing to cooperate. Side-payments from one firm to the other are not considered in this case. If firms were allowed to set up any agreement on a RJV that they like, they would always cooperate if industry profit increases with a RJV. The firms could bargain in the first stage to split the expected gain from cooperation. This is indicated in Figure 2 as “agreement area”.3 The importance of the parameter regions in Figure 2 lies in the implications for the legal treatment of RJVs. Obviously, in the symmetric case firms either both want to form a RJV or not. The model reproduces previous results which state that firms are more likely to cooperate if the spillover parameter is high. By forming a RJV, firms can internalize the R&D spillover. In addition, the simulation shows that the willingness to cooperate also depends on the size of the innovation. For low spillover parameters, the firms are only willing to cooperate if the innovation is small. To make cooperation possible for larger potential cost reductions, the spillover parameter has to increase. Moving away from the symmetric case, the low cost firm becomes less willing to cooperate. For a relatively wide range of parameters, only firm 2 wants to cooperate. When the firms are very different, only firm 1 prefers cooperation. The regions in which only one firm wants to form a RJV indicate that the motives for cooperation can be different for the two 3 A natural extension at this point would be to find the solution, e.g. the Nash bargaining solution, to the firms’ bargaining problem. Furthermore, it could be investigated how firms might develop alternative agreements under the constraint that side-payments are illegal ex ante. Then firms could choose cooperative probabilities that maximize industry profit under the condition that both firms have to be at least weakly better off. As a result, asymmetric R&D efforts might increase to area in which both firms are willing to cooperate even if side-payments are not permitted. This approach, however, exceeds the scope of this paper. 13 firms. Both firms can internalize the spillover effect with cooperation. The high cost firm can reduce its R&D effort relative to the potential cost reduction. The most interesting case arises when firm 1’s cost is very low. Under competition, it would choose not to spend money on R&D. Its expected profit as well as industry profit would increase if the firms would cooperate and firm 1 would engage in R&D. The effect of this cooperation would be to “pull down” firm 2’s investment and to decrease the overall success probability. Without side-payments, firm 2 would not cooperate but firm 1 would be willing to pay firm 2 to enter into an agreement. Under these circumstances, a RJV has an anti-competitive effect. As will be shown in the next section, the welfare effect of such an agreement would be negative. Analyzing the private incentives for cooperation if firms differ in marginal costs unfolds a larger spectrum of firm behavior. As result 3 suggests, side-payments or other forms of compensation are likely to play an important role in R&D cooperation. If legal restrictions prevent side-payments, the firms may fail to reach a cooperative agreement even if industry profit would increase. V. Welfare comparison Before comparing the non-cooperative and the cooperative game in terms of social welfare, I will present the social optimum as a benchmark. Expected social welfare (WE) is equal to expected consumer surplus (C) plus expected industry profit . In particular, (10) W E x 1 x 2 CSS SS x 1 (1 x 2 )CSF SF (1 x 1 )x 2 C FS FS x i2 x 2j (1 x 1 )(1 x 2 )C k 2 2 FF FF where CSS and SS are consumer surplus and industry profit if both firms succeed, C SF and SF are consumer surplus and industry profit if firm 1 succeeds and firm 2 fails, and so on. Several authors used the first-best welfare criterion as a comparison to the firms’ game. Suzumura (1992) questions the relevance of the first-best welfare function as a yardstick to evaluate the performance of RJVs. He argues that the enforcement of the first-best arrangement is hardly feasible for any government and that gains from cooperative R&D 14 should be evaluated within the alternative feasible arrangements. Consequently, Suzumura suggests the use of the second-best welfare function as a benchmark. In that case, the social planner takes the output as given by the firms and maximizes over the probabilities x1 and x2 only. In this paper, both the first-best and the second-best solutions were considered. The first best solution requires that the firms sell their product at marginal cost, implying that only one firm remains in the market if their costs differ. This solution assumes that the social planner can shut down the high cost firm if both firms fail to innovate and have the low cost firm produce at a price equal to marginal cost. The solution for the success probabilities is symmetric and equal to: (1 c1H ) 2 (1 c L ) 2 2 (11) x 1 x 2 x SP1 2 (1 c1H ) (1 c L ) 2 k 2 Solving for the second best outcome yields: C FS FS C SF SF C FF FF C FS FS k A SP k SP 2 (12) x 1 A SP k C FS FS C SF SF C FF FF C SF SF k A SP k SP 2 (13) x 2 A SP k where: A SP CSS SS C FF FF CSF SF C FS FS The social planner’s second-best solution is only symmetric if the firms have the same cost. Comparing the non-cooperative and the cooperative probabilities to the first-best and second best solutions can be summarized as follows: Result 4: In the non-cooperative equilibrium, the high cost firm overinvests in R&D if the industry leader’s cost is very low. The result holds for any spillover parameter and in comparison to both the first and the second-best solution. The low cost firm always underinvests compared to both the first and the second-best solution. 15 The cooperative equilibrium probability falls short of the first-best solution except for c1H=0. In that case, the social planner would not invest in R&D but a RJV would invest a small amount. Both solutions are independent of the spillover parameter. For the second-best probabilities, the same result holds except for low spillovers and very low cost for firm 1. In this region the cooperative solution exceeds the social planners x1. In contrast to d’Aspremont and Jacquemin’s model, the comparison of R&D effort does not directly translate into welfare results. The R&D intensity change interacts with the information sharing effect of RJVs to affect the welfare ranking of the regimes. In addition, in this model of asymmetric R&D effort the allocation of research activity matters. For a given total success probability (the probability that at least one firm finds the new technology) R&D expenditure is minimized if both firms spend the same amount. Due to asymmetry, this never holds for the competitive outcome or the second-best welfare outcome. Result 5: Comparing the cooperative and the non-cooperative R&D scenario, the simulation shows that welfare is higher under cooperation for all spillover parameters and all cost combinations as long as c2H /c1H.< 5. Figure 3 shows that the area in which firm asymmetry leads to a welfare reduction under cooperation (c2H /c1H.> 5) is small relative to the size of the parameter space. As mentioned above, only when the low cost firm’s cost is very low, cooperation decreases welfare. With the specific setup of the modelFor low values of the spillover parameter, there exists a relatively large cost range in which cooperation would increase welfare but firms are unwilling to cooperate. This tends to be the case for “drastic innovations” when the potential cost reduction is large. Naturally, welfare under a cooperative agreement is always lower than under the first-best outcome. However, for low to medium spillover values, the cooperative outcome results in a higher welfare level than the social planner’s second-best. This result might seem surprising because the firms maximize industry profit without taking consumers into account. The welfare increase is driven by the information sharing effect and the R&D cost savings. In the second-best setting in this model, the social planner can set x but not . With cooperation, the firms share their R&D results, 16 which increases the probability that both firms will produce with the low cost which in turn increases expected consumer surplus. The overall success probability tends to be lower with cooperation. However, the information sharing combined with a lower total R&D expenditure increases welfare above the competitive level and the social planner’s second best. For high spillover parameters, the information sharing effect disappears and the social planner’s second best exceeds the cooperative welfare level. VI. Conclusions In this paper, a simple model of R&D cooperation was developed to investigate the private incentives for R&D cooperation. It was also examined whether the welfare results of previous studies hold in the case of asymmetric firms. It was confirmed that in most cases R&D cooperation increases welfare. The only exceptions are RJVs in which the industry leader with a very low cost pays the small firm to cooperate. Allowing for initial cost differences showed that the firms often do not have the same incentives to cooperate. In order to reach a profit and welfare increasing agreement in these cases, one firm has to be able to compensate the other firm for the decrease in its expected profit. If this is not feasible, many welfare improving joint ventures might never form. The present model is very simple and policy implication should therefore be drawn with caution. Keeping the assumptions of the model in mind, in particular the complete information sharing in RJVs, three suggestions could be made. (i) Competing firms should be allowed to form R&D joint ventures unless the innovation is small and the leader has already low costs. If the cooperating firms are very dissimilar, the effect on research activity should be monitored. (ii) In all other cases, side-payments should be allowed to facilitate cooperation if one firm is not willing to cooperate. (iii) In cases where the spillover parameter is low, the innovation is drastic, and the firms are unwilling to cooperate, information sharing should be encouraged. Subsidizing the small firm’s R&D does not seem an appropriate measure to increase welfare. Instead, cautiously placed financial incentives for cooperation might be welfare improving. 17 Diagram 1 The Simulation In order to be able to compare the equilibrium success probabilities, profits, and welfare results in the cooperative and the non-cooperative game, values were computed for the relevant cost range in 0.05 size intervals. This was done for spillover parameters between zero and one in 0.1 size intervals. The range of the calculations was determined by two conditions being satisfied. The costs have to lie between zero and one and both firms need to be able to produce in the beginning of the game, i.e. the costs have to be similar enough that if both firms fail to innovate the outcome will be a duopoly. 0 c1H c 2H 1 and q FF 2 0 c1H 2c 2 H 1 c2H c1H 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 … 0.5 … 0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 1 Firm 1 0 Monopoly 0.05 0.1 0.15 Symmetric Case: Firms are identical along the diagonal. . 0.5 . 0.85 0.9 0.95 Firm 2 Monopoly 1 To maximize the solution space, the low cost cL is equal to zero for both firms. The diagonal in the diagrams represents the symmetric case. Moving along the diagonal from the upper left to the lower right corner illustrates an increase in the size of the innovation. Above the diagonal, firm 1 is the low cost firm, below the diagonal firm 2 has the lower cost. The case c2H < c1H was included in the diagrams to give a better visual impression of the results. 18 Reaction Functions Diagram 2 x1=R(x2) x2 x2=R(x1) 0 x1 Strategic Substitutes Diagram 3 C2H/C1H ratio is increasing x1=R(x2) x2 x2=R(x1) 0 x1 High Cost Firm: Substitute Low Cost Firm: Complement x2 x1=R(x2) Diagram 4 x2=R(x1) 0 x1 Corner Solution 19 Probabilities under R&D Competition Beta = 0 Probabilities X1 (Low Cost Firm) Figure 1 Probabilities X2 (High Cost Firm) 0.25 0.25 0.2 0.2 0.15 Beta = 0 0.15 X1 X2 0.1 1 0.1 0.9 0.75 0.8 0.6 0.05 0.45 Beta = 1 0.25 0.25 0.225 0.2 0.2 0.175 0.175 0.15 0.15 X1 0.125 X2 0.125 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.7 1 c1 H 0.4 0.025 0 0 0.9 0.6 c2 H 0.75 0.3 0 0.45 0 0.2 1 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.05 c1 H 0.2 c2 H 1 0.8 0.15 0 Beta = 1 0.075 0.6 0.05 0.025 0 0.1 1 0.8 0.075 0.1 0.5 Probabilities X2 (High Cost Firm) 0.225 0.2 0.2 0.1 c2 H Probabilities X1 (Low Cost Firm) 0 0.15 1 0.8 0 0 0 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 0 0.2 c2 H c1 H 0.3 0.3 0 0.6 0.05 c1 H 0.4 Difference in Probabilities Difference in Probabilities X2 - X1 Difference in Probabilities X2 - X1 Beta = 0.5 Beta = 0 0.14 0.12 0.12 0.1 X1 > X2 0.1 0.08 0.08 X2 - X1 X2 - X1 0.06 1 0.04 0.06 1 0.04 0.8 0.8 0.02 -0.02 0 1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.8 c1 H 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0 0.4 1 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 c1 H 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0 0 0.6 0 0.2 0.4 c2 H 0 0.6 0.02 20 c2 H Competition versus Cooperation Figure 2 Figure 3 Difference in Expected Profits for the Firms Difference in Industry Profits and Welfare Low Cost Firm High Cost Firm Cooperate Cooperate 1 With Cooperation: Industry Profit Welfare Compete Cooperate 2 Increases Decreases A Cooperate Compete 3 Decreases Increases B Compete Compete 4 Increases Increases C Industry profit increases with cooperation (Agreement Area) Industry profit increases with cooperation (Agreement Area) C2H C1H C2H 0 .05 .1 .15 .2 .25 .3 .35 .4 .45 .5 0 0 2 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 .05 .55 .6 .65 .7 .75 .8 .85 .9 .95 1 Beta = 0 C1H 0 .05 .1 .15 .2 .25 .3 .35 .4 .45 .5 0 0 C C C C A A A A A A .65 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 .05 C C C C C C C C C A A .1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 .1 C C C C C C C C C C C A 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 .15 C C C C C C C C C C C C .2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 .2 C C C C C C C C C C C C C .25 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 .25 A C C C C C C C C C C C C .3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 .3 A C C C C C C C C C C C C C .35 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 3 3 .35 A C C C C C C C C C C C C C .7 .75 .8 .85 .9 .95 .4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 4 3 3 3 .4 A C C C C C C C C C B B B C C .45 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 2 4 4 4 3 3 3 .45 A A C C C C C C C B B B B B B .5 3 3 3 1 1 1 2 2 2 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 .5 A A C C C C C C B B B B B B B B 3 3 1 1 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 A C C C C C B B B B B B B B 3 1 1 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .6 C C C C B B B B B B B B B 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 .65 C C C B B B B B B B B 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 C B B B B B B B B B 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 B B B B B B B B 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .8 B B B B B B B 4 4 4 4 4 .85 B B B B B 4 4 4 4 .9 B B B B 4 4 .95 B B .6 .65 .7 .75 .8 .85 .9 .55 .95 .7 .75 1 4 1 C2H .05 .1 .15 .2 .25 .3 .35 .4 .45 .5 0 0 2 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 .05 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 3 3 3 B .55 .6 .65 .7 .75 .8 .85 .9 .95 1 Beta = 0.5 C1H 0 .05 .1 .15 .2 .25 .3 .35 .4 .45 .5 0 0 C C C C A A A A A A .05 C C C C C C C C A A A .55 .6 .65 .7 .75 .8 .85 .9 .95 .1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 3 3 .1 C C C C C C C C C C C A .15 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 .15 C C C C C C C C C C C C .2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 .2 C C C C C C C C C C C C C .25 3 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 .25 A C C C C C C C C C C C C .3 3 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 .3 A C C C C C C C C C C C C C .35 3 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 .35 A C C C C C C C C C C C C C .4 3 3 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 .4 A A C C C C C C C C C C C C C .45 3 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 .45 A A C C C C C C C C C C C C C .5 3 3 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 .5 A A C C C C C C C C C C C C C C 3 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 .55 A C C C C C C C C C C C C C 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 .6 C C C C C C C C C C C C C 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 .65 C C C C C C C C C C C 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 .7 C C C C C C C C C C 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 .75 C C C C C C C C 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 C C C C C B B 2 2 2 4 4 C C B B B 2 4 4 4 .9 B B B B 4 4 .95 B B .6 .65 .7 .75 .8 .85 .9 .95 .8 .85 1 4 1 C2H .05 .1 .15 .2 .25 .3 .35 .4 .45 .5 0 2 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 .05 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 3 3 B .55 .6 .65 .7 .75 .8 .85 .9 .95 1 Beta = 1 C1H 0 .05 .1 .15 .2 .25 .3 .35 .4 .45 .5 0 0 C C C C A A A A A A .05 C C C C C C C C A A A .55 .6 .1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 3 .1 C C C C C C C C C C A A .15 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 .15 C C C C C C C C C C C C .2 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 .2 C C C C C C C C C C C C C .25 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 .25 A C C C C C C C C C C C C .65 .7 .75 .8 .85 .9 .95 .3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 .3 A C C C C C C C C C C C C C .35 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 .35 A C C C C C C C C C C C C C .4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 .4 A A C C C C C C C C C C C C C .45 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 .45 A A C C C C C C C C C C C C C .5 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 .5 A A A C C C 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