Our aim is provide a beacon
Our mission is to provide a blueprint
AGENDA
•
Climate Change
– Global Context
– Local Context
•
GCNS Aim & Model
– Understanding behaviour barriers
– Understanding emissions areas
– Finding Solutions - facilitation of
– Collective Ownership
– Collaboration
– Community led solutions
How BIG is the problem?
Despite 82% UK concern, only 4% public personal activity – Ipsos MORI 2007
7 years left to keep below global 2 °C warming – WWF 2008
Global CO2e is still rising exponentially – IPCC 2008
Annual reduction targets need to be 8% to 9% - Tyndell Centre 2007
Only 26% of CDP’s Supply Chain Leadership Collaboration have
established greenhouse gas reduction targets so far…and these are
often moderate – www.strategicrisk.co.uk 2008
Even if CO2 emissions stopped tomorrow, we are committed to 1.4 degrees
of average global warming
Some Very Basic Science …
• Incoming shortwave
solar radiation warms
the earth, which then
emits long wave
radiation.
• Certain gases absorb
this energy, and re-emit
it back to earth.
• This is the greenhouse
effect which is causing
global warming and
climate change
Where are global temperatures heading?
(Follow the green line on the right!)
1ºC global warming IMPACTS
X
This map of mountain glacier mass balance
changes since 1970 shows thinning in yellow
and red, and thickening in blue.
2ºC, 2003 Heat Wave = ‘the norm’
2ºC, Sea Level Rise
2ºC, Ocean Acidification
2ºC global warming - IMPACTS
While two degrees of warming will be
survivable for most developed country humans,
40% of all other species (plant & animal) alive
today may be driven to extinction as climate
change wipes out their habitat.
And we are getting close to irreversible “tipping points” through positive feedbacks
3ºC Amazon Rain Forest Destruction
3ºC Soil Microbes release CO2 under stress
3ºC: the ‘tipping point’
Combined, these 2 events will create a further 1.5ºC global temp rise.
• Increasing areas of planet uninhabitable by drought and
heat
• Hurricanes increase to Category Six
• World food supplies critically endangered
• Hundreds of millions of refugees will move towards the
mid-latitudes.
4ºC, Antarctic Ice Sheet Collapse = 5m sea
level rise
4ºC, Methane from Permafrost melt
4ºC, Ice Free Arctic Ocean
5ºC global warming - IMPACTS
To understand the implications of 5 ºC of
warming, we need to go back 55 million
years ago when the Earth experienced a
sudden and dramatic global warming.
Climate Change Impacts on Scotland
PHYSICAL / LAND
Flooding, increased frequency, increased intensity
Species invasion – e.g. ticks & mosquitoes
Coastal erosion
HUMAN IMPACTS
Food price increases, changing diets
Fuel price increases, later fuel shortages
Influx global climate change refugees
Possible war
Growing gap between rich and poor with more severe impacts
What are the ripple effect impacts of each of these?
The inspiration behind
going carbon neutral Stirling
tipping a nation…
(without legislation)
…into immediate, mass, multi-faceted
voluntary behaviour change
So what was the task exactly?
Meaningful
&
Collectively
owned
Widespread
Evaluated
Voluntary
personal
carbon
reduction
In order to effect ….
…that is….
We need to understand…
6 behaviour barriers.
Key Elements of GCNS
1) Understanding carbon
reduction behavioural change
barriers
Because that defines what solutions may look like
And the order in which they might be taken up
Behaviour barrier, 1 of 6
Plenty of advice…but no support =
attitude-behaviour gap
We don’t act because:
“whilst we know we should probably make some changes to the
way we do things, we are always rushing around and don’t
remember. We need reminders in the right place, and supportive
help that goes right through, in practical terms, to the bitter
end…without hassle and cost!”
SOLUTION: Each engaged community group acts as its own support
infrastructure – each week, through asking ‘who remembered?’, we
remind, encourage, cajole and compete with each other, to remember to
carry out our carbon cutting action. Infrastructurally, we understand,
then coordinate carbon cutters needs with delivery mechanisms.
Behaviour barrier, 2 of 6
Social Norms
We don’t act because:
“it’s not socially normal to carry out personal carbon
budgeting…I’ll look like a freak (and no-one will like me!)”
GCNS Solution: By asking each engaged community group to
talk about their carbon cutting on a weekly basis, we start to
normalise the idea of day to day carbon reduction. In addition,
we will start to see carbon cutting in our local shops, in our local
newspapers, hear about it on our local radio…everywhere we
go in Stirling in fact, we will see that others are part of this
critical mass project
1 tonne
No social norms
COMMUTING
It’s not socially normal to say (to your peers and employer):
So I need to…
“Moving to new offices?”
x
Behaviour barrier, 3 of 6
Aspirations and desires are pro high carbon.
We don’t act because:
“advertising tells us, everywhere we look, that we will be
better off and happier if we have more stuff; and the more
amazing the ad, the more hi-carbon the service or product
is, it turns out. It’s hard to go against the grain…”
SOLUTION: GCNS will explain to businesses that over the next 4 years, GCNS will
be creating carbon savvy customers – who will appreciate low carbon offers, and
horrified by hi-carbon offers! By engaging business staff communities, hi-carb offers
will be swiftly spotted internally and interchanged for localised low carb offers.
Aspirational
(fun, cooler,
smarter, affluent)
Non-aspirational
(routine, less cool, banal,
‘poorer’)
Toyota Land cruiser
Bus
The Caribbean
Skegness
Your own
parking space
HIGHER CARBON
LOWER CARBON
Behaviour barrier, 4 of 6
Complexity & number of messages
We don’t act because:
“carbon reduction involves an enormous quantity, variety and
complexity of action, we don’t know what to believe, or what to
do, so we end up doing nothing”
SOLUTION: We put the carbon cutter plan into being – one action
per week that everyone takes, and everyone is reminded to
take. GCNS will ask participants “what language worked for this
activity?” “what reminder mechanism would work better?” ”How
else can we help you make this happen?” We will record what
tools and practices work for the varying groups, and improve
our delivery with this feedback.
Behaviour barrier, 5 of 6
Ease of Action
We don’t act because:
“currently, it’s hard to be a carbon cutter. We need lower
carbon goods and services to be easier to find than other
products and services, preferable to use, and better priced”
SOLUTION: GCNS will work with GCNS communities, bringing
them together in annual open days, in order to discover mutual
needs that will aid further carbon cutting. These ‘infrastructural
demands’ will be assessed for their carbon validity, and then
taken to the ‘delivery community’ such as the council &
businesses.
SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT
SOLUTIONS
Hybrid Cars
THINGS WE’VE HEARD…PERCEPTIONS?
Non-recyclable so higher lifecycle footprint
Lower comparative mileage performance
Electric Fleet
No infrastructure
Bio-fuels
Global Famine
Tele-communications
Expensive, ? quality, not ubiquitous, not as
good as face to face
Mileage Issues
Hi-Speed trains
Same CO2 as planes
Car sharing
Not ubiquitous, infringes on personal flexibility
Trams
Huge set up carbon footprint
Slower road speed limits
Cycling
Impossible to enforce. Slowing traffic increases
CO2. Hugely unpopular
Not safe
Thefts
Trains
Late
Bus
Walking
Crowded
More Expensive
Not aspirational. Slow Fragmented Service
Need to have the time
Behaviour barrier, final one
Conflicting messaging & non-joined up thinking
We don’t act because:
“currently, there is not enough evidence of ‘joined up thinking’
and worse, a lot of ‘conflicting messaging’ by government,
local authorities, media & business…if they can’t be
bothered to get it right, why should I?!”
SOLUTION: GCNS works with businesses and public bodies to help them get their
own houses in order. Then, with their staff engaged as ‘communities’ we look at
businesses’ external activity and messaging, as perceived by the public, and realign
it to our area’s low carb aspirations.
Key Elements of GCNS
1) Understanding
behavioural change barriers
2) Understanding
emissions areas & defining
targets
12 tonnes
10 tonnes
11 tonnes
6 tonnes
7 tonnes
8 tonnes
9 tonnes
Annual
Scottish
CO2
Emissions
1 tonne
2 tonnes
Per
Head
3 tonnes
4 tonnes
5 tonnes
Per
Year
1 tonne
COMMUTING
1.2 tonnes
0.8
tonne
HYGIENE
AVIATION
EDUCATION
2.5 tonnes
1 tonne
HEATING SPACE
CLOTHING
2 tonnes
RECREATION
& LEISURE
1.5 tonnes
FOOD
0.5
tonne
1.5 tonnes
HOUSEHOLD
ELECTRICITY
For global climate change to have a hope of
remaining under control, what should our
emissions be?
2007. World
population = 6 billion
2050. World
population = 9 billion
=
….by 2035
1 tonne
Per year
Key Elements of GCNS
Partners…
1) Understanding
behavioural change barriers
2) Understanding
emissions areas & defining
targets
3) Finding Solutions.
Facilitation of
•Collective Ownership
• Collaboration
Communities…all
types
Local Businesses
Stirling Council
Community Planning
Partnerships
•Community led solutions
Local Media
How do we engage our partners?
STEP 1
We contact them through
recognised ambassadors
1°
STEP 2
We meet them at their
regular group meeting (ease of action)
STEP 3
We show them the effects of climate change..
At the end of year one, the
group is invited to repeat the
process for a second and third
year….
2°
STEP 4
..and ask if they will say ‘YES’! to become
part of the Stirling critical mass carbon
cutting project
3°
STEP 5
We identify the group’s
First Year Activator…
4°
STEP 6
…with whom we create the group’s
FIRST YEAR CARBON CUTTERS PLAN
5°
STEP 7
We give up to 6 support sessions
throughout the year, overcoming obstacles
collectively and collaboratively.
6°
3 year Community Carbon Cutting Plan
Yrs 1 - 3 Smart n’ easy
(brain & body trainers)
YRS 2 & 3
Carbon Crushers
Immediate ease of action
Perceived new ‘desire’ ,
new aspirations & norms
Large degree of normality
+
ATTITUDE
Yrs 2 & 3: Infrastructural
changes
Reduction in conflicting
messages
More demand = greater
ease of action
Creates ease of action
Engenders social norm
Demonstrates joined
up thinking
Settlement Open Days
CLOSED
BEHAVIOUR
What will businesses do?
INTERNAL activity
• Discover and report scope 1 and 2 emissions
(internal fossil fuels burnt and electricity purchased).
• Start to demand knowledge on, and reduction of
scope 3 emissions (indirect emissions that are a consequence of
a company's activities, but which arise from sources that are owned or
controlled by others).
• Provide a Lifecycle carbon footprint on top
services / products
• Create an emissions reduction target in line with
the dictates of science
• Staff engagement, as communities
Talk about it talk about it talk about it talk about t talk about it talk about it….
What will businesses do?
EXTERNAL Activity
• Create social norms – for consumers and other
businesses
• Demonstrate joined-up thinking
• Re-adjust aspirations & desires
• Ensure non-conflicting messaging
• Ensure ultimate ease of action
Key Elements of GCNS
Partners…
1) Understanding
behavioural change barriers
2) Understanding
emissions areas & defining
targets
3) Finding Solutions.
Facilitation of
•Collective Ownership
• Collaboration
Communities…all
types
Local Businesses
Carbon Cutter
Plans
Open days
Carbon Cutter
Plans for staff
Stirling Council
Internal CR activity
Community Planning
Partnerships
External
collaboration
•Community led solutions
Local Media
Keeping it alive with
Positive messaging
GCNS Carbon Descent Model, the trajectory
and what it looks like….
Getting started, with smart and easy carbon brain and body trainers
12 tonnes
Making real progress with effective carbon crushers
With the collaboration of businesses & the
council to help us with infrastructural
changes…
6 tonnes
1 tonne
So that cutting more carbs becomes easy again
NOW
2035
Funding, where and how much
• Big Lottery Fund Supporting 21st Century Life
programme: £500,000
• The Scottish Government Greener Directorate:
£800,000
• WWF-Scotland and Stirling Council Housing
Department: £64,000
• There might be funding in years 2 to 4 from
LEADER
And with that we pay for…
• Staff team of 8 for 4 years;
•
•
•
•
•
•
Programme manager
Business engagement
Carbon coach
3 community engagement and support
Media & communications
Administration
Year One: Involved Communities
Discussion
To do this it has to remove
‘barriers’ and ‘resistances’ …
1.Awareness – yes, support to make changes, no!
Leaving “attitude-behaviour gap”
2.No social normality for everyday carbon reduction
activity
3.Aspirations & desires – not low carbon – quite the
reverse!
4.Too many messages – turns people off
5.Currently not easy to take carbon reduction action
6.Too many examples of non-joined up thinking &
conflicting messaging