AP Macro Phillips Curve, Monetary Policy The Phillips Curve (hypothetical example) tt% 4% 2% . . . . .. 5% 7% . PC u% Note: Inflation Expectations are held constant The Phillips Curve • In a 1958 paper, New Zealand born economist, A.W. Phillips published the results of his research on the historical relationship between the unemployment rate (u%) and the rate of inflation (tt%) in Great Britain. • His research indicated a stable inverse relationship between the u% and the tt%. As u%↓, tt%↑ ; and as u%↑, tt%↓. • The implication of this relationship was that policy makers could exploit the trade-off and reduce u% at the cost of increased tt%. Trouble for the Phillips Curve • In the 1970’s the U.S. experienced concurrent high u% & tt%, = stagflation. • 1976 American Nobel Prize economist Milton Friedman saw stagflation as disproof of the stable PC. • Instead of a trade-off between u% & tt%, Friedman and 2006 Nobel Prize recipient Edmund Phelps believed that Un was independent of the tt%. This independent relationship is now referred to as the Long-Run Phillips Curve. 1970’s Phillips Curve π% 4% 2% . . . . .. . . . . . .. . 5% 7% . PC u% The Long-Run Phillips Curve π% LRPC un % u% Note: Natural rate of unemployment is held constant Un defined The natural rate of unemployment (NRU) is defined as the equilibrium rate of unemployment i.e. the rate of unemployment where real wages have found their free market level It is where the aggregate supply of labor is in balance with the aggregate demand for labor. At the natural rate, all those wanting to work at the prevailing real wage rate have found employment and there is no involuntary unemployment There remains some voluntary unemployment as some people remain out of a job searching for work offering higher real wages or better conditions. The Long-Run Phillips Curve (LRPC) • b/c the LRPC exists at the un, structural changes in the economy that affect un will also cause the LRPC to shift. • In order to reduce the Un, structural policies must be directed towards an economy's supply side. • Increases in un will shift LRPC • Decreases in un will shift LRPC Inflation rate LRPC 4% 2% SRPC (assumes 4 % expected inflation at each UR) SRPC (assumes 2% expected inflation at each UR) Natural rate of unemployment Unemployment rate Phillips Curve – LR and SR Summary • There is a short-run trade off between u% & π%. This is referred to as a short-run Phillips Curve (SRPC) • In the long-run, no trade-off exists between u% & π%. This is referred to as the long-run Phillips Curve (LRPC) • The LRPC exists at the natural rate of unemployment (un). – un ↑ .: LRPC – un ↓ .: LRPC • ΔC, ΔIG, ΔG, and/or ΔXN = Δ AD = Δ along SRPC – AD .: GDPR↑ & PL↑ .: u%↓ & π%↑ .: up/left along SRPC – AD .: GDPR↓ & PL↓ .: u%↑ & π%↓ .: down/right along SRPC • Δ Inflationary Expectations, Δ Input Prices, Δ Productivity, Δ Business Taxes and/or Δ Regulation = Δ SRAS = Δ SRPC – SRAS .: GDPR↑ & PL↓ .: u%↓ & π%↓ .: SRPC – SRAS .: GDPR↓ & PL ↑ .: u%↑ & π%↑.: SRPC Reconciling the LRPC and SRPC LRPC tt% tt1 % B A tt % In the short-run, assuming the policy is successful, inflation occurs and unemployment decreases as the economy moves from A to B. C In the long-run, the inflation rate at B (π1 %) becomes the new expected inflation rate (π1^%), and the economy returns to the natural rate of unemployment (point C). SRPC (tt1^ %) SRPC (tt^ %) u% u N% u% Assume that either the government or the central bank enacts an expansionary policy to reduce the unemployment rate below its natural rate at point A. Reconciling the LRPC and SRPC π% π1 % LRPC A C π% In the long-run, the inflation rate at B (π1 %) becomes the new expected inflation rate (π1^%), and the economy, once again, returns to the natural rate of unemployment (point C). Now assume that either the government or the central bank enacts a B SRPC (π^ %) Contractionary SRPC (π1^ %) In the short-run, assuming the policy is successful, disinflation occurs and unemployment increases as the economy moves from A to B. u N% u% u% policy to reduce inflation from it’s current rate at point A Relating Phillips Curve to AS/AD • Changes in the AS/AD model can also be seen in the Phillips Curves • An easy way to understand how changes in the AS/AD model affect the Phillips Curve is to think of the two sets of graphs as mirror images. • NOTE: The 2 models are not equivalent. The AS/AD model is static, but the Phillips Curve includes change over time. Whereas AS/AD shows one time changes in the price-level as inflation or deflation, The Phillips curve illustrates continuous change in the price-level as either increased inflation or disinflation. Movements along the SRPC Shifts of the SRPC • Expected TT: If TT goes up – shift up. If TT goes down – shift down • SRAS increases = shift SRPC right • SRAS decreases = shift SRPC left Shifts of the LRPC Increase in AD = Up/left movement along SRPC PL SRAS SRPC π1 π P1 .. AD1 AD Y YF P . . LRAS π% GDPR un u C↑, IG↑, G↑ and/or XN↑ .: AD .: GDPR↑ & PL↑ .: u%↓ & π%↑ .: up/left along SRPC u% Decrease in AD = Down/right along SRPC LRAS PL P1 . SRAS SRPC π . P π% . . π1 AD AD1 YF Y GDPR u un u% C↓, IG↓, G↓ and/or XN↓ .: AD .: GDPR↓ & PL↓ .: u%↑ & π%↓ .: down/right along SRPC SRAS = SRPC PL LRAS . P1 Y YF LRPC π1 . GDPR un π AD SRPC1 . SRAS1 SRPC . P π% SRAS u u% Inflationary Expectations↓, Input Prices↓, Productivity↑, Business Taxes↓, and/or Deregulation .: SRAS .: GDPR↑ & PL↓ .: u%↓ & π%↓ .: SRPC (Disinflation) SRAS = SRPC SRAS1 SRAS . . π1 π AD Y1 YF LRPC SRPC P1 P π% LRAS PL SRPC1 . . GDPR u n u1 u% Inflationary Expectations↑, Input Prices↑, Productivity↓, Business Taxes↑, and/or Increased Regulation .: SRAS .: GDPR↓ & PL↑ .: u%↑ & π%↑ .: SRPC (Stagflation) Phillips Curve Review • SRAS increases = shift SRPC right • SRAS decreases = shift SRPC left • AD increases = movement up and left • AD decreases = movement down and right • Increases in un will shift LRPC • Decreases in un will shift LRPC MS NIR •MS – affected by actions of the Federal Reserve i1 MD Q1 •MD – •Transaction demand determined by GDP •Asset demand determined by NIR Q Money Market