THE FOURTH TURNING
An American Prophecy
William Strauss
Neil Howe
1997
WHAT IS A TURNING?
• A FOUR CYCLE PHASE OF HISTORICAL
TIME
• COVERING 80-100 YEARS (A SAECULUM)
• ROUGHLY EQUAL TO A FULL HUMAN LIFE
• INCLUDING FOUR GENERATIONS
WHAT IS A “TURNING”?
CHARACTERIZED BY SUCCEEDING
“SEASONS”
1. GROWTH AND STRENGTH (HIGH)
2. AWAKENING AND MATURATION
3. ENTROPY AND UNRAVELING
4. CRISIS AND DESTRUCTION
WHAT IS A “TURNING”?
GENERATIONS SHAPED BY SEASON OF
BIRTH
• Prophet generation born during HIGH
• Nomad generation born during
AWAKENING
• Hero generation born during
UNRAVELING
• Artist generation born during CRISIS
WHAT IS A “SAECULUM”?
• ANCIENT ETRUSCAN (BellaToscana!) TERM
• ADOPTED BY THE ROMANS
• A FULL FOUR PHASE HUMAN LIFE
– Childhood (Spring)
– Rising Adult (Summer)
– Middle Age (Fall)
– Elder (Winter)
• HENCE “AN AGE” – History in your bones!
HISTORIOGRAPHICAL
INTERLUDE
HOW SHALL WE THINK ABOUT
TIME?
CIRCLE
LINE
SPIRAL
o
“Turnings” of the “War Cycle”
• Overture: Italian Wars (1491-1525)
• 1st Cycle:(Phillip II Imperial Wars (15681609)
• 2nd Cycle: War of Sp. Succession(16721713)
• 3rd Cycle: French Rev./Napoleonic(17921815)
• 4th Cycle: WWI-WWII (1914-1945)
AWAKENING CYCLE
• Protestant Reformation (1530s-1540s)
• Puritan Awakening (1630s-1640s)
• Pietist Awakening (1740s-1750s)
• Evangelical-Utopian Awakening (1830s40s)
• New Age Awakening (1960s-1970s)
Modern American Life Cycle
• Childhood: 0-20 --receiving, acquiring
• Young Adult (21-41) –serving, testing
• Midlife (42-62) power; managing, applying
• Elderhood (63-83) leadership; transferring
• Late Elder (84+) dependence;
remembering
Generations and WWII
Birth Years
PROGRESSIVE
MISSIONARY
LOST
G.I.
SILENT
BOOM
13TH/XER
MILLENNIAL
1843-1859
W. Wilson
1860-1882
FDR
1883-1900
Eisenhower
1901-1924
JFK
1925-1942
M. DUKAKIS
1943-1960 BILL CLINTON
1961-1981
TOM CRUISE
1982-2002
CLASS 2000
GENERATIONS COMING OF AGE
• PROGRESSIVE: 1876 Edison,
Westinghouse
• MISSIONARY: 1896 Populism Wm J. Bryan
• MISSIONARY:1918 Doughboys; Paris
• G.I.:
1935CCC/WPA
• SILENT:
1954McCarthy/ Cold War
• BOOMERS: 1969Woodstock
• 13th/Xer:
1992Media Discover Xers
• MILLENNIAL 2001 9/11?__________
GENERATIONS AND
ARCHETYPES
Prometheus Dionysus Apollo
Epimetheus
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Traditional Agnostic
Dogmatic Innovative
Reason
Intuition
Feeling
Sensation
NT
SP
NF
SJ
Hero
Artist
Prophet Nomad
G.I.
Silent
Boom
13th/Xer
WHERE DO WE GO FROM
HERE?