Democracy in a Changing
Political Cosmology
Chris Baker
Thailand context
May 2014 coup
roll back the liberal-democratic advances of last 15-20 years
Southeast Asia context
Authoritarianism
Malaysia: growing repression
Vietnam/Laos: nationalist-capitalist one-party states
Myanmar: army not letting go
Indonesia: exception? Jokowi thin and fragile?
Concidence? End of the Cold Peace
40 years. Growth. US dominance. Fewer authoritarian states
> China. Re-emergence of 9-dash line (2013)
> Ukraine crisis. Declaration of economic war on Putin?
> ISIS: change of scale and type in long-term conflict
Cold War
two claims to create “democracy”
Political
Cosmology
Cold Peace
dominant US lib-democrat model
China: capitalist 1-party state
Putin: neo-Tsarism
Political
Cosmology
US: corporate power
Supreme Court, Republican Party
Obama failure to deliver
Europe: billiard-ball
Mid East mess > migration > rightism
On the ground: Strongmen
Prayut, SEA
Sisi; Erdogan; Abe; Modi; ?Nieto
Caliphate!
“The China model”
Liberal economy, authoritarian politics
Don’t even have to make it look nice
Coincidence?
Analogous, redividing the divided
Thank You