IDEAS 10th Anniversary
Conference
Surajit Mazumdar
Session on: Is Decoupled Growth Possible?
25 January 2012
India: External Balances to GDP (%)
Item
2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
Merchandise
Balance/GDP
-2.30
-4.82
-6.40
-6.78
-7.80
Invisibles Balance/GDP
4.62
4.43
5.18
5.71
6.34
Services Balance/GDP
1.68
2.19
2.86
3.22
3.20
Private Transfers/GDP
3.60
2.92
3.03
3.26
3.55
Current Account/GDP
2.32
-0.39
-1.22
-1.07
-1.46
India: Foreign Investment Flows
(US Dollar Million)
120000
100000
80000
60000
FDI
Portfolio
40000
Commercial Borrowings
Capital Account
20000
-40000
2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06
2004-05
2003-04
2002-03
-20000
2001-02
0
India: Rate of Growth of NDP at 1999-00 Prices (% per
annum)
Sector
1990-91 to
1996-97
1997-98 to
2002-03
2003-04 to
2007-08
Aggregate NDP
5.79
5.25
8.82
10.29
6.79
14.61
4.99
4.93
7.33
Private
Organized Sector
(Estimated)
Rest of the
Economy
(Estimated)
Per Capita Consumption at 1999-00 prices
2500.00
2000.00
1500.00
1000.00
500.00
0.00
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
Foodgrains
2005-06
2006-07
Sugar and gur
2007-08
2008-09
Per Capita Availability and Expenditure on
Foodgrains
Period
Per Capita Net
Availability of
Foodgrains
(grams per day)
Period
Per Capita
Annual
Expenditure on
Foodgrains at
1999-00 prices
(Rs.)
1961-65
461.1
1960-61 to
1964-65
1893.49
2004-08
441.8
2003-04 to 200708
1793.38
Average Index of Real Wage Per Worker in ASI Factory
Sector (2002-03=100)
120.00
110.00
107.41
100.00
99.94
98.78
1997-98 to 2002-03
2003-04 to 2007-08
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
1990-91 to 1996-97
India: Share of Private Organized NDP and its
Components in Aggregate NDP
25.00
23.44
20.00
18.56
16.62
16.22
15.00
14.07
11.96
10.40
10.00
7.72
5.82
6.82
6.61
5.00
0.00
Pvt Org Compensation of Employees
Pvt Org Operating Surplus
Pvt Org NDP
Share of Wages in Net Value Added of ASI Factory
Sector (%)
35.00
30.28
32.35
31.53
30.00
25.00
19.90
20.00
19.27
15.00
10.60
10.00
5.00
0.00
Share of Different Expenditure Groups in Non-Food Private Final
Consumption Expenditure in the Domestic Market at Current Prices
(Percentages)
India: Gross Capital Formation (GCF) and Gross Fixed Capital
Formation (GFCF) at Current Prices as Percentage of GDP
45.00
38.73
40.00
35.00
30.00
34.00
26.02
26.16
26.10
25.21
25.00
20.00
23.00
24.40
23.40
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
GFCF/GDP
GCF/GDP
23.80
India: Annual Rates of Growth of GFCF at Constant Prices
(Per cent per annum)
At 1993-94 prices
At 1999-00 prices
Private
Period
Registered
Corporate
Manufacturing
Private
Period
Sector
Registered
Corporate
Manufacturing
Sector
1990-91 to
1996-97
19.5
21.94
1999-00 to
2002-03
-4.91
-2.02
1997-98 to
2002-03
-6.06
-3.75
2003-04 to
2007-08
28.51
31.39
India: Share of Organized Manufacturing in the Increase in Net Fixed
Capital Stock (L) and NDP (R) at 1999-00 prices:
2002-03 to 2007-08
7.66
27.43
72.57
92.34
Organized manufacturing
Organized manufacturing
Other Sectors
Other Sectors
Average Capital-Output Ratio in Registered
Manufacturing at 1999-00 prices (Years)
7.45
8
7
6.73
6.12
6
5
4.87
4.94
1990-91
1996-97
4
3
2
1
0
1980-81
2002-03
2007-08
Services and Construction: Growth and
Contribution to Increase in GDP
At 1999-00 Prices
Item
At 2004-05 Prices
1990-91 to 1997-98 to 2003-04 to 2004-05 to 2008-09 to
1996-97
2002-03
2007-08
2007-08
2010-11
Rate of Growth
(% per annum)
6.51
7.65
10.52
10.51
9.42
Contribution to
Increase in
Aggregate GDP
(point-to-point)
(%)
56.31
80.33
71.07
68.39
78.28
Shares of Private Organised Sector NDP by Sector in
Aggregate NDP (%)
Sector
1990-91
1996-97
2002-03
2007-08
1. Agriculture
2.21
2.18
1.39
1.21
2. Industry Excl
Construction
6.44
8.03
6.83
7.39
3. Services and
Construction
5.62
7.33
10.35
14.84
Total Pvt Org
NDP (1+2+3)
14.26
17.55
18.56
23.44