Community Steps to Getting Inundation Mapping: An Overview of NOAA NWS Flood Mapping Process presented at Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference Victor Hom Office of Climate Water Weather Services Hydrologic Services Division June 4, 2010 1 Inundation Mapping Plenary Objectives Provide NWS Community, Stakeholder, and Partners a better understanding of: • NWS AHPS Flood Mapping Website • NOAA’s Integrated Water Forecasting Program • NOAA NWS AHPS Flood Mapping Process 2 Integrated Water Forecasting Program NOAA’s Role: Provide accurate and reliable water forecasts (where, when, and how much) Rivers and Floods Coasts, Lakes and Estuaries Water Resources Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Coast, Estuary, River Information Services Integrated Water Resources Science and Services Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) Objective 1 Reduce 1-7 day river forecast errors and quantify uncertainty Objective 3 Objective 4 Couple modeling systems for rivers, lakes and estuaries Deliver seamless, high resolution water quantity and quality forecasts Objective 2 Objective 5 Provide flood inundation forecast maps for high-impact communities Advance and integrate observing systems to improve QPE and QPF 3 Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service AHPS Goals Enhance flood warning information and modernize services through infusion of new science and technology • Flash-flood to seasonal freshwater forecasts • Quantification of forecast certainty • More accurate and timely forecasts and warnings • Partnered flood-forecast area mapping • Visually-oriented products Provide consistent access to standardized graphics via web interface 4 Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Probabilistic information to support risk-based decisions • Seamless short- to long-term Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) within CHPS • Incorporates both atmospheric and hydrologic uncertainties Implementation Status Demonstrating components of short-term capability at 6 RFCs Will deploy additional prototypes during the next 2 years Initial version of full capability in 2013 5 Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Temporal, Geospatial, and Situational Awareness 03/29/2008 1:00 PM CDT NOAA NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Water Predictions For Life Decisions 6 Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Uncertainty, Geospatial, and Situational Awareness 03/29/2008 1:00 PM CDT NOAA NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Water Predictions For Life Decisions 7 Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Mapping and Visualization visualization of the “extent” of flooding and the items impacted at current time (left graphic) and possible flooding scenario at a future time (right graphic) NOAA NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Water Predictions For Life Decisions 8 Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Data Assessment Transparency of Modeling Parameters NOAA NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Water Predictions For Life Decisions 9 Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Contingency Event Planning Geographic representation of current and possible future flooding scenarios. Flood inundation referenced to potential loss estimates. NOAA NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Water Predictions For Life Decisions 10 Flood Mapping to Enable Decision Support Building Partnerships and Collaboration FEMA RISK Mapping Stakeholder Collaboration Assessment Planning (MAP) Strategies. Advanced Hydrologic Information Sharing and Trust Prediction Service (AHPS) Community Hydrologic Prediction Service (CHPS) Decision Support Integrated Water Resource Science and Services (IWRSS) Coastal, Estuary, River Information Services (CERIS) USACE Silver Jackets NOAA NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Water Predictions For Life Decisions 11 AHPS Flood Mapping 12 Local and Regional Coordination NWS Partners, please contact local Service Hydrologist. Local Service Hydrologist will coordinate with respective Regional Flood Mapping Coordinator for additional guidance. • Eastern Region • Southern Region Hydrologic Services Division Hydrologic Services Branch Laurie Hogan Ben Weiger • Western Region Hydrology and Climate Services Division Jeff Zimmerman Integrated Services Division Wendy Pearson • Central Region Scientific Services Division Kris Lander 12 AHPS Flood Mapping Process Four Phases Phase I PLANNING NWS QA Phase II ENGINEERING & ANALYSIS QC Phase III IMPLEMENTATION 13 Phase IV OPERATION & MAINTENANCE QC NWS, Partners, NWS, Partners NWS, AHPS AHPS Partners, Contractor Contractor and/or NWS & NWS & Contractor Partners Partners NWS, Partners, NWS, Partners, and/or and/or Contractor Contractor For more detail about the phases, see OCWWS External FTP Server http://apps.weather.gov/tempdocuments_ext/FIM_Process_Overview.ppt 13 Flood Mapping Process Site Selection and Evaluation Obtain Base GIS Data 14 Determine Appropriate Inundation Elevations Obtain Hydraulic Models Verify Channel Geometry Verify Flows Run Model Inundation Polygons/Rasters File Management NOTES: • Yellow Boxes involve Phase 1 Activities in Planning/ Scoping • Green Boxes are Phase 2 Activities in H&H/Geospatial Analyses Deliverables to NOAA 14 15 AHPS Flood Mapping Project From Deliverables to End-Product 15 16 QA/QC Process Phase 2 QA/QC Iterate with Contractor (fix Deliver to Orion errors) Post on Development Site Phase 3 QA/QC Field Verification Complete Phase 3 QA/QC Resend to Orion Iterate with Contractor/Field (fix errors) Post on AHPS NOTES: • Green Boxes are Phase 2 Activities in Hydrology, Hydraulics, Geospatial Analyses • Blue Boxes involve Phase 3 AHPS Implementation Announcement of Service 16 AHPS Flood Mapping 17 Regional QAQC Resources Regional Flood Mapping Coordinator will coordinate with regional resources to carry-out Phase 2 QC. • Eastern Region • Laurie Hogan Raymond Davis William Saunders • Central Region Kris Lander Darrin Hansing Rick Sloan Southern Region Mike Shultz Janet McCormick Katelyn Costanza Mark Love • Western Region Dave Streubel Alan Haynes Jay Breidenbach Jayme Laber Regional Flood Mapping Coordinator will coordinate * Guest from with USGS respective NWS Service Hydrologist and RFC for Phase 3 QC. 17 AHPS Flood Mapping Process18 Project Chart Expanded Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Teams and Special Roles Activities in the form of tasks and deliverables Please see the document: http://apps.weather.gov/tempdocuments_ext/ NWS_FIM_QAQC_Plan_FY09Q4_FINAL_NWS.pdf 18 NOAA NWS Inundation Mapping … working with partners and stakeholders to improve decision support and the communications of flood risk 19 Additional Supporting Slides • Integrated Water Resources Science and Services • Version 3 of NOAA Flood Mapping Guidelines to include Guidance on Levees and Bridges • Future Enhancements • Pilot Project Opportunities 20 Collaborating for a Sustainable Water Future • Comprehensive national stakeholder needs assessment included 50 states and 12 Federal agencies (2009) • Revealed broad need for a Federal Tool Box for water resources 12 Assessment Agencies: • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration • U.S. Forest Service • Natural Resources Conservation Service • Army Corps of Engineers • Environmental Protection Agency • Federal Emergency Management Agency • Bureau of Land Management • Bureau of Reclamation • Fish and Wildlife Service • National Park Service • U.S. Geological Survey • Tennessee Valley Authority Primary Roles: • • • • • • • • • • • Prediction Monitoring Science Management Conservation Regulation Protection Mitigation Restoration Response Recovery 21 Integrated Water Resources Science and Services The Toolbox • NOAA is leading the multiagency IWRSS consortium to: – Prototype the Federal Tool Box for water resources – Streamline access to Federal water resource capabilities – Share technology, information, models, best practices – Develop interoperable tools Benefits – Create a Common Operating Picture Data and Information Water Managemen t Planning and Policy NOAA USACE USGS 22 Resolving Issues: Levees •The NWS suggests the use of a “simple exceedance criteria” to determine the mapping level beyond which inundation is shown in the landward protected area. •The NWS suggests the proposed modeling procedure outlined below be used for utilizing different model geometries to remove a particular levee whenever the modeled water surface exceeds one or more inflection points, with the following considerations: o Once a levee is overtopped, areas landward of the levee inflection points should be modeled as permanent ineffective flow areas. This will allow storage, but eliminate floodplain conveyance in areas effectively blocked by levees. o During high flows, once a levee is overtopped and areas behind the levee overfilled, engineering judgment should be used to ensure conveyance above this blocked area is hydraulically consistent between impacted cross sections in the model. o In the event that multiple levee protection areas are present on one side of the river, each levee should be mapped independently. •The area represented by the 500 year floodplain should be shown as the Levee Failure Risk Area behind an overtopped levee. A separate shapefile outlining this area should be delivered in addition to the static inundation library. If the 500 year floodplain is undefined for the study area, it is recommended that the Levee Failure Risk Area utilize either a) the inundation area representing 125% of the record flood flow or b) the area inundated by the highest computed profile in the library. 23 Resolving Issues: Levees 24 Once the appropriate model is chosen, a mapping criteria needs to be employed. It is requested that for any water surface that overtops the levee, the area inundated by the highest calculated elevation should be shown as a “Levee Failure Risk Area.” 24 Resolving Issues: Bridges 25 NOTE: Inundation libraries show bridges as inundated because bare earth DEM was used for mapping (bridges removed) To fix this, either: 1.) Burn bridges back into DEM (using top deck elevations from model or DOT) 2.) Clip inundation polygons and depth grids Cheapest/Fastest Option WGRFC and LMRFC have developed 1.) Create Clipping Polygon step by step methods that can be shared 2.) Clip Inundation Polygons -Frank Bell -David Welch 3.) Clip Depth Grid 25 AHPS Flood Mapping 26 Core Goals Team • NWS Eastern Region • Hydrologic Services Division Laurie Hogan • NWS Central Region Scientific Services Division Kris Lander Integrated Services Division Wendy Pearson • NOS Coastal Services Center Doug Marcy NWS Southern Region West Gulf RFC Frank Bell • NWS Western Region WFO Boise ID Jay Breidenbach • NWS Headquarters Hydrologic Science & Modeling Branch Seann Reed Hydrologic Services Branch Victor Hom* *Team Lead http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ohd/rfcdev/projects/rfcHP10_chart.html 26 AHPS Flood Mapping 27 Core Goals Team FY10 Workplan Task #1: AHPS Flood Mapping Web Portal and Display Subtask 1-1: Subtask 1-2: AHPS Web Portal for Bridges AHPS Web Portal for Levees and Flood Risk Areas Task #2: Quality Assurance and Consistency of Regional Flood Maps Subtask 2-1: Quality Assurance and Phase 2 Quality Control Training Workshop Task #3: National Flood Inundation Mapping Guidelines and Program Standards Subtask 3-1: Subtask 3-2: Federal Guidelines and Statement of Work Templates Partnered Program/Project Management Support Tool Task #4: Regional Flood Mapping Development …. Task #5: Maintenance/Servicing Maps …. 27 AHPS Flood Mapping 28 Pilot Project Opportunities NOAA National Ocean Services and NWS NSSL NowCoast GIS Web Portal Demonstration for AHPS Flood Inundation Mapping & CI-FLows locations (http://nowcoast.noaa.gov) Demonstration of Coastal Flood Impacts on NOAA COOPS Web Interface (http://tideandcurrents.noaa.gov) NOAA AHPS Phase 7 and Beyond Enhancements Extend Google Map API Capability for Flood Impacts Extend Google Map Capabilities for AHPS Flood Inundation Mapping 28