The Global Consciousness Project
Weak Signals, Strong Implications
Roger Nelson
The EGG Project
(aka the Global Consciousness Project)
International collaboration
75 Scientists, Artists, Friends, …
Network of host sites world wide
The tools: FieldREG technology …
Make an EEG for the earth, an Electrogaiagram
Engaging moments of global events
The question: Can we capture a
Glimmering of Global Consciousness?
Homepage
http://noosphere.princeton.edu
Berger: Web Design
Magic Buttons
Status
Day Sum
Results
Extract
Primary Links
Menu at Bottom
The technology is only now available
Electronics, Computers, Networking
REG/RNG devices run continuously
Synchronized computers and software
Internet transfer of data to central server
Automatic archiving, public access
Formal analyses and explorations
Background, methods, poetic history
A Random Event Generator
(REG or RNG)
How it works: Here’s 1000 Trials from
A physical random source
Each trial is the sum of 200 bits
The binomial distribution of 1000
200-bit trials, compared with
Theoretical normal distribution
expected
Composing the data as a Random Walk
(A Drunkard’s Walk)
When you put a thing in order,
and give it a name, and you are
all in accord, it becomes.
- - From the Navajo, Masked Gods, Waters, 1950
A Real-Time Display (Bierman)
Here we see the combined data
for a whole day, from 48 eggs
We can see better what’s happening by
plotting cumulative deviations
Correlation Tilts … Variance Spreads
For most of the formal predictions
We specify a “Standard Analysis”
Normalized signed deviation of mean, zi = (mi-m)/s
Composite across eggs: Stouffer Zs = (Szi)/N1/2
Composite Z is squared for c2 distributed statistic
Large cumulative sum of Zs2 – 1 or c2 – df
Reflects inter-egg correlation, or
Consistent large deviations, or both
Cumulative sum of c2 - its expectation
May show a trend if there is a common
Influence or correlation among the eggs
Major disasters that engage us powerfully
Often correlate with big deviations
Context explorations: Six hours of data
Around the beginning of bombing in Kosovo
Cumulative deviation of Zs2 or c2
The Pope’s 6-day pilgrimage to the middle east:
An occasion of hope for resolution of differences
Political events, even big ones, are not
necessarily of interest to the EGG
We’ll try anything once. Significant correlations
with astrologically determined “hot” times
An obvious prediction: New Years celebrations
Concatenation across all (24) time zones
Cumulative excess deviation of means
Model Prediction
Weak Replication
A major alternative analysis
Variance of the scores
Sum of zi2-1 across eggs is c2 with N df
Equivalent to variance s2 of egg scores
Large cumulative deviation
Reflects distribution spread, variability of means
Reflects large deviations in either direction
Y2K New Year 1999-2000: Coherent engagement?
Radin makes an independent prediction
Reduction of Variance across eggs
Odds, GMT
New Years 2000-2001: Variance Reduction
Signal Average over 37 time zones
Normalized, Squared, Smoothed
New Years 2001-2002: Variance Reduction
Signal Average over 37 time zones
Normalized as Z-scores, Smoothed
5-Min Smoothing Window
The destruction of the World Trade Towers
Sept 11 2001
A 50-hour trend followed the attacks
Sept 11 Formal prediction: Inter-egg Variance
Red is real data, Green is Pseudorandom
Radin: Odds against chance
For variance excursion on Sept 11
The real data vs pseudorandom data
Data from EGG network
Pseudorandom clone data
Shoup: examining a larger context
Comparing Sept 11 vs four months of days
Bancel: Autocorrelation on Sept 11
Structure where there should be none
Summary of statistical measures for Sept 11
Measure
Probability estimate
Comparison standard
Composite deviation
0.003
Resampling: 400 days
Inter-node correlation
0.0002
Student t: 400 days
Device variance peak
0.0009
Permutation: control p = 0.756
Autocorrelation
0.001
60 control days: p > 0.05
News correlation
0.002
Student t: 365 days
Diurnal variation
0.30
Time series: 365 days
Bottom line: the full formal database
113 global events over 4 years
What do we have in hand?
Where do we want to go with it?
Four years of data
50 eggs around the world
More than 100 formal studies
About 65% positive outcome
About 20% individually significant
Many analyses remain to be done
Bigger Picture: What is our aspiration?
Sharpen and focus our questions
Aim for theoretical understanding
Capture insight about creative mind
Consider evidence that we are one
Contribute to better future for culture
We think the world apart. What would it be
like to think the world together?
-- Parker Palmer, educator
http://noosphere.princeton.edu