ASSESSING READINESS TO OFFER A NEW DEGREE PROGRAM IN ECONOMICS
Part One: Need for the Program
Units should provide detailed information regarding linkages to the strategic plan and the impact of the
proposed program on other unit programs on the UNC-OP planning and establishing documents.
Need for the Program

What is the external need for the proposed program? Project the current and future need for graduates
with this degree at the regional, state, and national levels.
The U. S. Department of Labor projects steady growth in the job opportunities for economists in general
at least through 2014.i For those with PhD training the best job opportunities are expected for those
candidates with skills in quantitative techniques and their application to economic modeling and
forecasting. These are precisely the types of skills that will be stressed in the proposed program in
Economics with a research focus on risk. Two federal agencies have recently issued a joint memorandum
that stresses the need for precisely the type of risk analysis that is the central focus of the proposed
degree.ii The Chief Administrator of the Office of information and Regulatory Affairs of the Office of
Management and Budget and the Associate Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy on
September 19, 2007 urged all heads of executive departments and agencies to integrate risk analysis into
all of their regulatory activities: “Agencies should recognize that risk analysis is a tool…in the regulatory
tool kit.”iii The memorandum also stresses the need for trained professionals with the requisite skills for
risk assessment: “Risk assessors and economists are responsible for providing decision-makers with the
best technical information available or reasonably attainable… iv
The proposed program is directly responsive to the University’s strategic directions to advance research
and creative activity to enhance economic development of the region, and to take a leadership role in
solving regional problems. To advance toward these goals, the program will educate economic
researchers in the economics of risk analysis and hazard mitigation crucial to our coastal and estuarine
region, as well as nationally.
The program responds specifically to the national need for PhD economists with analytic and econometric
skills required for the analysis and management of risk and uncertainty for decision making in areas such
as natural hazards, environmental assessment and mitigation, and public policy and regulation. The
majority of new PhDs in economics typically enter the academic market.v The proposed program is
instead primarily designed to train research economists who can apply modern skills to the design and
implementation of policy, as well as teach such skills and evaluate their use by others. Federal agencies,
such as the Environmental Protection Administration and the Federal Communications Commission, and
state agencies, such as the North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources and the
Office of State Budget and Management, routinely recruit for professionals with these skill sets.
Moreover, private research organizations, non-governmental organizations, and foundations are also
potential employers for those who complete the program. The current and anticipated demand for all
groups will be more than sufficient to secure placement of the number of PhDs projected.
Further details about the current and projected demand for graduates are included in the accompanying
“Request for Inclusion” document.

What are the expected enrollment patterns for the proposed program over the next five years; what is the
enrollment target within five years of establishment? What evidence is there that the proposed program
and this unit can attract quality students?
The basic program structure will admit up to eight students every alternate year. Three graduates are
projected at the end of the fourth year. By the fifth year the total enrollment will average seventeen
students per year and the number of graduates will alternate between three and four per year. The
program design will be sufficiently flexible to permit the occasional off-year admission of exceptionally
strong candidates on a limited basis.
The Economics Department’s current Master of Science in Applied and Resource Economics has
successfully trained several students who have continued their economics training in strong PhD
departments at other universities. Three to four such students would find the proposed program an
attractive one. We expect that the uniqueness of the proposed PhD in Economics with a research focus
on risk will allow us to attract even more highly qualified students from outside East Carolina University.
Specialized economics programs (e.g., Syracuse University, University of Central Florida, University of
Wyoming) regularly attract entering cohorts of twelve to twenty qualified PhD students, and we anticipate
selecting from such a pool.
Comparison to Similar Programs at Other Universities

How common is this type of program nationally and what about the proposed program would enable it to
particularly stand out from the others? What would it take to become a nationally recognized program in
this area?
There are several PhD programs nationally which emphasize a focus on some aspect of risk, such as the
Departments of Insurance in the business schools at Georgia State University, the University of Georgia,
Florida State University, Temple University, the University of Pennsylvania, and the University of
Wisconsin, and in the Department of Mathematical Sciences at Carnegie Mellon University. However,
these programs focus almost exclusively on financial risk and its mitigation through the use of
sophisticated financial instruments in well functioning markets. Although the basic mathematical tools
behind the analyses are similar, the proposed program in Economics differs from each of these in that it
will apply modern statistical and analytical techniques of risk management to issues of regional concern
such as hazard mitigation, environmental resource utilization, and public sector risk. In each of these
focus areas, financial considerations relate to only a part of the problems and issues involved. Other
programs with an environmental/resource or regional focus, such as those at Middle Tennessee, Central
Florida, or Virginia Tech, do not emphasize the analysis of risk and uncertainty or the development of the
specialized tools for such analysis. The proposed program will be a natural extension of the University’s
existing and continuing commitments in all these areas. Our goal is to develop a program that will
achieve national visibility within five years.
Accreditation Standards

Are there accreditation standards or requirements that will affect this program? Is so, describe in detail
how the proposed program will meet those standards or requirements.
The Economics Department is part of the Harriot College of Arts and Sciences. The program will be
evaluated along with other East Carolina University graduate programs during the periodic review by the
Southern Association of Colleges and Schools.
Part Two: Assessing Readiness of Current Faculty

Complete the Faculty Information Sheet for each individual who will serve as a core faculty member,
actively involved in delivering the proposed program.
Faculty Information Sheets for all current core faculty members are attached to this document.

Provide a summary of faculty readiness in the unit to include the cumulative totals of the following:
o
Number of core faculty at each rank who will be actively engaged in this program.
Professors: seven
Associate Professors: three
Assistant Professors: six five
{Note: Two of the Professors, one of the Associate professors, and four and all five of the
Assistant Professors arrived in the past four and one-half years. All had scholarly activities of
record predating their arrival at ECU. The Professors both had numerous publications and one
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o
o
o
o
o
o
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had substantial grant and contract activity in the past five years not accounted for in ECU’s data
base.
Number of core faculty with experience directing theses/dissertations: three – PhD; nine – MA
Theses.
Number of scholarly and professional activities related to proposed degree (with emphasis on the
past five years): 240 – past five years; 442 – cumulative.
Note: These include conferences, review panels, outside presentations of research and lectures,
editorial boards, journal refereeing, academic program reviews, review of program proposals and
funding, grant proposal reviews, editor selection committees, officer positions in national and
international organizations, etc.
Number of publications related to proposed degree; 151 – past five years; 344 – cumulative.
Note: These include all economics publications and firm acceptances (books, articles,
proceedings, reports, reviews, and other publications), including those produced prior to arrival at
ECU.
Number of external grants & contracts submitted and awarded related to proposed degree:
Note: These include submissions/awards to organizations other than ECU in which the
economics faculty members were/are co-PIs or subcontractors, as well as activity at ECU. Some
faculty have substantial activity prior to arrival at ECU.
Submitted: Fifty – past five years; eighty-one – cumulative.
Awarded: Twenty-one – past five years; forty-seven – cumulative.
Invited research presentations outside ECU: 129 – past five years; 212 – cumulative.
Patents/disclosures/copyrights: N/A
Participation in scholarly collaborations with other universities, laboratories, & centers: ninety-eight – past
five years; 141 – cumulative.
Service on related national/international boards or committees: twenty-six – past five years; fortyfive – cumulative.
Part Three: Assessing Adequacy of Instructional/Research Facilities and Personnel to Support the
Program
Instructional and Research Facilities

Describe existing space and specialized equipment to be devoted to the proposed program within the
context of the space and equipment currently assigned to the unit/s.
The Department of Economics has access to six electronic classrooms; one small conference room; one
mobile instructional computer lab on a cart stored in the conference room; eighteen faculty offices; one
small student office; three-room department office suite; and one storage room. The electronic
classrooms are periodically shared with other units.

How will assignment of this space to the proposed program impact existing programs?
The addition of the program will not prevent any other program from continuing to utilize the teaching
space, as there is currently some excess capacity. Indeed, the rooms and equipment will now be used
more efficiently.

Describe additional facilities or specialized equipment that would be needed over the next five years.
Eight additional rooms will be needed: two faculty offices for new hires; one office for PhD program staff;
two offices for PhD students; one Department seminar room; one room for PhD computer laboratory, and
one small room for a small technical reference library containing specialized materials, including recent
working papers, to which the graduate students should have continual access. The current conference
room cannot seat the full faculty with MS students, and so is seriously inadequate as a seminar room
(only one of its current uses). With a PhD program, a true seminar room will be required. The technical
reference room will provide much more convenient access to such materials than the main library can,
and at a substantially lower cost to the University.
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
Describe current holdings in library resources in the proposed program and projected library resources
needed to support the proposed program.
Library holdings and access to electronic journals and basic data resources are currently adequate.
Joyner Interlibrary loan is efficient and able to support specialized needs of the program over the first five
years. Basic PhD-level texts and reference volumes and additional specialized datasets will need to be
acquired, but the cost should be less than $15,000.

Describe the adequacy of unit computer resources. If additional resources are needed, give a brief
explanation and an estimate for the cost of acquisition. Include classroom, laboratory, and other facilities
that are not currently used in the capacity being requested. (Collaborate with ITCS to determine feasibility
of adding these resources, particularly in the areas of mainframe computer usage, networking
requirements, statistical services, network connections, and student computer labs.)
The Department currently utilizes a mobile instructional computer lab which is equipped and configured
primarily for undergraduate teaching and market simulation experiments. Training PhD students will
require equipment and software with greater capabilities. The room listed above for a PhD computer
laboratory should be equipped with six top-line workstations with appropriate statistical software. Initial
cost of the hardware and software will be $30,000 with continuing costs of $1,000 per year for software
licenses. We do not anticipate the need for additional mainframe computer resources.
Personnel

What additional personnel would be needed to make the proposed program successful for growth and
development over a five-year period?
o Faculty: two, with one at a senior (tenured) level
o Post-doc associates: none
o Research technicians: none
o Graduate assistants: six to seven
o Other staff: Administrative Assistant for the PhD Program (0.5 FTE)

What will be needed to recruit such individuals and what is the recruitment market like?
The focus of the program will be to produce economic specialists trained to apply advanced analytical
and econometric skills to the management of risk in areas such natural hazards. These skills are
essential in carrying out the missions in a variety of federal and state government agencies and nongovernmental organizations. The job market in which the Department of Economics will recruit for the two
additional faculty is distinctly different from this in that we obviously must recruit from the set of Ph.Ds
seeking positions in an academic setting. The Department of Economics has been highly successful in
this market in that we have attracted strong faculty at both the junior and senior levels. For example, in
each of the past three years we have recruited at the junior level and had 100-180 qualified applicants for
the one or two positions available. Several of our applicants were sufficiently advanced to be considered
at the Associate level, particularly in the environmental risk and hazard areas. Our newly hired junior
faculty have quickly established significant publication records and are well qualified to teach PhD level
courses in their areas of expertise. The senior faculty have extensive research and teaching experience
within research extensive institutions with successful PhD programs. These newly recruited faculty have
augmented a core of productive research faculty. Our existing academic environment and the prospect of
the PhD program will attract an even stronger pool of applicants for future positions.
Part Four: Assessing Financial Resources to Support the Program

Describe existing financial resources to be devoted to the proposed program.
o Four out-of-state tuition remissions (~$60,000)
o $65,000 out of $105,000 in current GA/graduate stipend/ support
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o
$5,000 in Foundation funds, raised by the Economics Department Advancement Council for
tuition scholarships

Describe what additional financial resources would be needed over the next five years and their proposed
sources of funding.
o Two additional Faculty at the tenure-track or tenured level
o Four graduate out-of-state tuition remissions, and two in-state remissions
o Two and one-half FTE dedicated to TA support, financed from FTE generated by PhD SCH
(~$160,000)
o $30,000 to 45,000 for graduate student support from external research funds.

What new financial resources will come to the university based on the projected increase in enrollment?
About $528,000 in state funds (General Institutional Support) will be generated by PhD student credit
hours (after subtracting reduction in funds from lower masters SCH), based on 2006-2007 SCH Funding
Change Model.

Will the program students contribute to the financing of the program through teaching, research, and
clinical practice?
All external grant proposals will routinely include a line for graduate student support. Students will be
required every year (after the first) to apply for external funding in order to be eligible for internal support.
We expect students in the program to be strong candidates for support from external agencies, such as
the recently announced Dissertation Proposal Development Fellowships from the Social Science
Research Council. We anticipate up to two self-financed, i.e. requiring no support from the program,
students in each cohort. All students in good standing in the program, however, will be supported from
the third year, largely through teaching in the department.

What are your plans for the program if the financial resources anticipated for the program (enrollment,
external support, etc.) are 25% lower and 50% lower than expected?
The anticipated program is lean in its resource requirements, and can only be successfully run for the first
five years with annual funding at levels at or very near those outlined above. To attract quality students
into a PhD program we must offer at least $18,000 plus tuition and fees per year, a cost to the
department of around $33,000/student for the first two years. We anticipate that those funds will be
generated by the students teaching after the second year, if appropriate FTE are allocated to support
teaching by PhD students. Thus insufficient funding of the program could be temporarily met by some
reduction (up to 2 in the first cohort) in the number of supported students admitted, and some reduction in
the stipend granted per student. Some cost savings can also be achieved through the reduction in
computers/workstations made available to the PhD students, and the elimination of the technical
reference room. And some further student support funds might be raised by the Department
Advancement Council. Such adaptations could cover shortfalls in funding for a few years, but are not a
viable permanent situation. The Department is committed to a serious effort to raise research funding for
graduate students, but the preparation of competitive proposals requires some access to such students
already in place. Thus, after five years, with a second and third cohort of PhD students moving through
the program, it will be much better placed to increase the level of student funding through faculty
research, than if a shortfall in anticipated funding should occur during the early years of the program.
Part Five: Assessing External Support and Collaboration

List active grants/contracts specifically related to the proposed program.
East Carolina University Coastal Maritime Council “Hazard Management Scenarios for Coastal
Communities” with Craig Landry,Tom Allen, Paul Gares, and Dan Marcucci ($20,000).
East Carolina University Faculty Senate Research/Creative Activity Grants “Assessing Coastal Risk
Exposure using Extreme Value Theory” Craig Landry and Mohammad Jahan-Parvar ($22,500).
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North Carolina Sea Grant Fisheries Research Grant “Recreation Value and Economic Impacts of the
North Carolina For-Hire Recreational Fishing Fleet” Craig Landry, Chris Dumas, Tim Hatcher, Jim
Herstine, Rom Whitaker, and John Whitehead ($75,000).
RENCI@East Carolina University, Coastal Systems Informatics and Modeling (C-SIM) Cooperative
Agreement with Renaissance Computing Institute, total support $1.7 mil, 2006-2009, with $650,000 in the
first year. This is a multi-disciplinary grant with researchers drawn from Economics, Sociology,
Geoography, Biology, Geology, Chemistry, and the Medical School Public Health Program. The Interim
Director and lead scientist is Dr. Jamie Kruse in Economics.
National Institute of Health, NICHD #1R01HD047213, “School Choice, Maternal Employment and Child
Achiervement,” $890,000, 2006-2009. $282,000 of this grant to UNC-CH is subcontracted to an ECU PI,
Dr. Haiyong Liu in the Economics Department.
National Commission on Energy Policy, “Measuring the Impacts of Climate Change on North Carolina
Coastal Resources,” $50,000, 2006-2008. ECU subcontract from Appalachian State for $12,500 to Dr.
Bin (ECU PI) for 2006.
IRP-USDA Small Grant, “Childhood Obesity and Poverty,” $30,000, 2005-2006. Dr. Liu (PI).
National Science Foundation, #0554987, “The New New Orleans: Evaluating Preferences for Rebuilding
Plans After Hurricane Katrina,” $172,596, 2006-2008. Kruse (PI/PD),, Co-PI’s Bin and Landry in
Economics, with Wilson (Sociology) and Stone (Planning).
National Science Foundation, #0553108, “Collecting Economic Impact Data: Implications for Disaster
Areas and Host Regions,” $29,881, 2005-2006. Kruse (PI).
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, “Natural Disasters and Bank Performance,” total support
$10,000, 2005-2006. Kruse and Dr. Ewing at Texas Tech University.
Active ECU Development Grants:
East Carolina University, Research Development Grant Program, “Spatial, Environmental and Behavioral
Determinants of Valuation of Coastal Erosion Risk,” Total support $30,000. 2005-2006. Kruse (PI), CoPI’s Bin and Landry in Economics, with Crawford (Geography)

Describe existing collaborative efforts related to the proposed program with community or state agencies,
other institutions of higher education, federal laboratories or agencies, national centers, or other external
organizations.
The Center for Natural Hazards Research (CNHR) is actively involved the the multinstitutional consortium
North Carolina Institute for Disaster Studies (NCIDS). Director of CNHR, Professor Jamie Kruse, serves
on the executive committee for NCIDS.
Professor Kruse is a research associate of the Wind Science and Engineering Research Center (WISE)
at Texas Tech University. WISE conducts research and outreach concerning severe wind events and
their impacts on the built environment. WISE includes researchers from civil engineering, atmospheric
science, economics, mathematics, and operations research.
RENCI@East Carolina University is a regional engagement center of the Renaissance Computing
Institute that is dedicated to using state-of-the-art computing technology to improve the quality of life and
economic well-being of the citizens of North Carolina. Disaster research is one of RENCI’s first two
initiatives.
Professor Bin has a collaborative research project with a Malaysian university (Kolej Universiti Sains dan
Teknologi Malaysia (KUSTEM)). He has been working with KUSTEM faculty on developing joint research
on the impacts of climate change, ecosystem sustainability, and threatened coastal/marine environments.
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
How do you plan to use external funding to support the proposed program? To what agencies or
programs would proposals be submitted and with what timeframe?
This program will produce graduates that can address issues in risk with particular emphasis on natural
hazards and public health. The RENCI@ECU regional engagement has both a natural hazard and public
health component that can supply graduate assistantships. In addition, it should be noted that
RENC@ECU will be evaluated for renewal at the end of its first three years.
o
What indications are there that the proposed program addresses significant problems of stated
interest to funding agencies?
The National Science Board recently issued a draft report, “Hurricane Warning: The Critical Need
for a National Hurricane Research Initiative,” calls for an additional $300 million per year to be
allocated to hurricane related research. The draft report dated September 29, 2006 calls for
National Science Foundation to co-lead the initiative with NOAA, NASA and other organizations.
This is precisely the type of applied research for which the proposed program will educate
economic analysts. Indeed, this describes the current research that the Center for Natural
Hazards Research (CNHR) is pursuing. For example, it currently has two NSF Small Grants for
Exploratory Research totaling $200,000. With its history of research on the hurricane mitigation,
CNHR is well positioned to further its research agenda and support graduate students under this
initiative. The National Science Foundation, through cross cutting/interdisciplinary programs such
as Human and Social Dynamics and the Social Behavioral and Economic Directorate, also is
expected to be a source of support. A $262,000 proposal to the Hazards Infrastructure and
Response Program within Civil and Mechanical Systems was submitted September 2006. A
proposal for a three year project at funding level $750,000 was submitted in January, 2007 to the
Decision and Risk Management Program. All proposals routinely include graduate student
support.
o
How well does the proposed program align with state and national initiatives as stated by the
indicated governmental agencies?
National Sea Grant and North Carolina Sea Grant Program are logical sources of external funds
because of their concern with issues of coastal development. The focus of the proposed program
on topics such as regulation, human behavior and risk, and coastal development are directly
response these issues. A letter of Intent has been submitted to the National Sea Grant Law
Center to study the relationship between building codes, land use regulation and coastal land
values. Future topics of research dealing with economic development and risk management in
the coastal zone will be developed in proposals to both the state and national Sea Grant offices.
All proposals will routinely include graduate student support.
o
How well does the proposed program align with state and national initiatives as stated by the
indicated foundations or other non-governmental sources?
Our primary targets for external support will be federal and state funding agencies such as those
described above.
o
What kind of university investments will be needed to leverage external support and over what
time period?
The primary university investments required are the provision of sufficient space, of initial faculty,
and an allocation of three FTE dedicated to the support of PhD students until they can be
sufficiently trained to provide qualified research support in externally funded projects. This is
largely an up-front investment, although continuing graduate student support will be required as
two to three years of course work are necessary. Given alternating year admissions to the
program, it will require at least four years before two cohorts of graduate students are adequately
trained to contribute to grants. At that point we would expect that one FTE of the university
contribution could be replaced by external research funding. The remaining university
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contribution will be compensated for by graduate student teaching in their second and third years,
and beyond for those not working on an externally funded grant.
i
Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH), 2006-07 Edition, http://www.bls.gov/oco/home.htm
U.S.Office of Management and Budget (OMB), MEMORNDUM M-07-24, “Updated Principles for Risk Analysis, “
September 19, 2007, http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/memoranda/fy2007/m07-24.pdf
ii
iii
Op. cit., p. 3.
iv
Op. cit., p. 5 (emphasis added).
John J. Siegfried and Wendy A. Stock, “The Market for new PhD Economists in 2002,” American Economic
Review Papers and Proceedings, May 2004, pp. 272-285. The most recent survey of the job market for new
PhD economists reveals that 67% of new PhD economists took academic positions in fall 2006. See “Survey of
The Labor Market for New PHD Hires In Economics 2006-2007,” Center for Business and Economic Research,
University of Arkansas, p. 32 http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/nsf00319/pdf/nsf00319.pdf.
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