Corporate Research briefing paper December 2011 Job Seekers Allowance Background This report analyses the number of people who were in receipt of Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) in December 2011. The unemployment figures presented in this insight are published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) each month. Claimant unemployment percentages are calculated by dividing the number of claimants by the number of local authority area residents aged 1664. This claimant count measure was introduced in January 2003 and replaced the previous measure based on workforce rates. Unemployment is often measured by the uptake of Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) benefit. This takes into account those who are unemployed and seeking employment but not people who are unemployed and not seeking work. NB: The population figures used to calculate residence-based proportions (rates) have changed from working age (16-59f/64m) to aged 16-64 for both males and females. This change affects rates for all dates. So rates for all dates will differ to those downloaded previously. 1. Summary The claimant rate in Blackburn with Darwen (4.8%) is higher than the North West rate (4.4%) and the national rate of 3.8%. The claimant rate of 4.8% for Blackburn with Darwen equates to a total of 4,242 people, approximately 70% of whom are male. The male claimant rate of 6.6% is approximately twice the claimant rate for females (3.0%). The annual change shows 36.6% more female claimants, male claimants increased by approximately 15% during the same period. The number of JSA claimants overall increased by a fifth. In December 2011, 795 people started claiming JSA, and 844 stopped, this equates to approximately 10.5% fewer people joining and a 3.2% more leaving the claimant count compared to the same month of the previous year. Compared to November 2011, off-flows decreased by approximately 3.7% and on-flows by 5.2%. The majority of claimants (over a half, 56.5%) are aged 25-49; over a half of claimants 54.9% have been receiving the benefit for 6 months or less. Approximately 17% have been claiming for over 12 months and are classed as ‘long term unemployed’. Long term claimants have doubled increasing by 305 to 580 over the year. Three wards with the highest claimant rates are Shadsworth with Whitebirk (9.3%), Wensley Fold (8.4%) and Sudell (7.7%). Five wards have experienced increases in the claimant count of 30% or more over the year. Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI). 2 Headline claimant rates In December 2011, 4.8% of the working population in Blackburn with Darwen were claiming Job Seekers Allowance (JSA), this is higher than the North West rate of 4.4% and the national rate of 3.9%. Table 1: Headline Claimant rate in Blackburn with Darwen December 2011. Claimant rates by gender: Total Claimants Male Claimants Female claimants Area N Rate N Rate N Rate Blackburn with Darwen 4,242 4.8 2,954 6.6 1,228 3.0 North West 196,233 4.4 135,482 6.0 60,751 2.7 Great Britain 1,509,736 3.9 1,014,340 5.2 495,396 2.5 Source: Claimant count, Nomis The rate equates to a total of 4,242 people claiming JSA in the borough, this being made up of 2,954 males and 1,228 females. Approximately seven out of ten claimants are male. The claimant rate of 6.6% for males is higher than the claimant rate for females (3.0%). Figure 1 illustrates current JSA claimant rates by gender for December 2011. Figure 1: Job Seekers Allowance Claimant Rate Rate as a proportion of the 16-64 population 7 6 6.6 Blackburn with Darwen North West Great Britain 6 5 5.2 4.8 4 4.4 3.9 % 3 3 2 2.7 2.5 1 0 Male Female All People Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk Updated: Monthly 3. Change over time The December 2011 claimant rate shows that compared to the same month of the previous year, claimants increased by a fifth, but decreased by 1.4% on November 2011. Table 2: Monthly and annual change in claimant rates Claimant rates by gender: Claimants December 2011 Monthly change Area N Rate +/+/- % Male 2,954 6.6 - 44 -1.5% Female 1,228 3.0 - 17 -1.3% Total 4,242 4.8 - 61 -1.4% Source: Jobcentre Plus, Nomis Annual change +/+/- % 379 14.7% 345 36.6% 724 20.6% Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI). The percentage change over the previous month, November 2011, shows a decrease for both males, females and overall. The annual change shows 36.6% MORE female claimants, male claimants increased by a 14.7% during the same period. The overall number of JSA claimants increased by a fifth. As illustrated in figure 2, the JSA claimant rate in Blackburn with Darwen has historically been higher than the North West and Great Britain rate. Figure 2: Claimant Rate trends 6 Figure 3: On-flows and Off-flows to Claimant Count Rate: % of 16-64 population 5 4 % 3 2 Blackburn with Darwen North West Great Britain 1 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 0 Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk Updated: Monthly Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk Updated: Monthly 4. On and off Flows In December 2011, 795 people started claiming JSA, and 844 stopped, this equates to approximately 10.5% fewer people joining and a 3.2% more leaving the claimant count compared to the same month of the previous year. Compared to November 2011, offflows decreased by approximately 3.7% and on-flows by 5.2. 5. Age and duration of job seekers allowance claimants and claims The graph below trends claimant rate by gender, as can be seen the claimant rates for males is higher than that for females. Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI). The graph below shows claimant count figures by gender indexed to January 2006, it can be seen that female claimant count rate rose sharply after February 2008 and has increased at a faster rate than that for males and continues to be at a higher level than for males. Over the last month there has been a slight decline in the number of claimants within the borough by 1.4% or 61 persons, this is reflected in a slight decrease in male and female claimant rates. The majority of claimants over a half (56.5%) are between the ages of 25-49, i.e. 25-49 year olds make up the largest category or JSA claimants. Just over a half of claimants have been receiving the benefit for 6 months or less. However 580 or nearly 20% claim for over 12 months and are classed as ‘long term unemployed’. Table 1: Age and duration of job seekers allowance claimants in Blackburn with Darwen December 2011. Age of blackburn with Darwen JSA claimants Claimants Annual change Age N % +/+/- % Aged 18-24 1,160 29.4% 80 7.4% Aged 25-49 2,225 56.5% 270 13.8% Aged 50+ 555 14.1% 85 18.1% Duration of Blackburn with Darwen JSA Claimants Claimants Duration N % Up to 6 months 1,830 54.9% Over 6 months and up to 12 months 925 27.7% Over 12 months 580 17.4% +/40 375 305 Annual change +/- % 1.5% 68.2% 110.9% Figures rounded up or down Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk Updated: Monthly The number of claimants for 6 months or less has increased by 1.5% over the year, but those claiming for 6-12 months increased by two thirds and those claiming for over 12 months doubled, increasing by over a 100%. Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI). 18-24 year age claimants have increased by a third since December 2010 and 25-49 year age by 13.8%. Claimants aged 50+ increased by nearly a fifth. 6. Long term claimants (over 12 months) People claiming JSA for 12 months or more are classed as long term unemployed. There are currently 580 long term claimants in Blackburn with Darwen (approximately 1 in 8 of all claimants), up by 50 on the previous month and 305 annually. Those claiming for 12 months or more have doubled increasing by over 100% since December 2010 and by 10% on the previous month. 18-24 year old long term claimants have increased five-fold (from 5 to 30), long term claimants aged 25-49 have doubled (100% - 210 to 420) and long term claimants aged 50+ have increased by 117% (60 to 130) The general trend is that long term claimants (12+ months) for each age group are increasing with 25-49 year olds experiencing the sharpest increase. Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI). 7. Youth unemployment (aged 18-24) There are currently 1,455 young claimants aged 18-24 in Blackburn with Darwen (A third of all claimants). The JSA claimant rate for 18-24 year olds is historically higher than the regional (8.9%) and national average (7.8%). Claimants aged 18-24 increased by a third over the year but decreased by 1.7% over the previous month. The graph below shows 18-24 year old claimants by duration indexed to January 2006. 18-24 year old claimants claiming for 6-12 months grew at a faster rate than those claiming for less than 6 months. 79.7% of claimants aged 18-24 were claiming for six months or less. 18-24 year olds claiming for six months or less increased by 18.0% over the year while those claiming for 6-12 months increased by 175, an increase nearly 200%. Table 1: 18-24 year old claimant by duration in Blackburn with Darwen December 2011. Duration of blackburn with Darwen JSA claimants Claimants Annual change Age N % +/+/- % < 6 months 1,160 79.7% 180 18.4% 6-12 months 265 18.2% 175 194.4% 12+ months 30 2.1% 25 500.0% Figures rounded up or down Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk Updated: Monthly (NB. The increase in 18-24 year old claimants claiming for 12+ months is based on small numbers). Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI). 8. Claimants aged 50+ Those aged 50+ make up 1 in 8 of all JSA claimants. Over a half of all 50+ claimants (54.1%) are aged 50-54 and 39.0% are aged 55-59. In total these two sub-groups make up approximately 93.0% of all the 50+ claimants. A small minority are aged 60 or over. JSA Claimants aged 50+ Age 50-54 55-59 60 or over Claimants N % 300 54.1% 215 38.7% 40 7.2% Annual change +/+/- % 40 15.4% 25 13.2% 20 100.0% Figures rounded up or down Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk Updated: Monthly Over the year 50-54 year old claimants increased by over a 15.4%, those aged 55-59. increased by 13.2%. Those aged over 60 increased by 20, a 100% increase. (NB, the percentage change for 60+ is based on small numbers). Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI). 9. Job seekers allowance claimant rates across Blackburn with Darwen wards. Rate Claimants Annual Change Monthly change Audley 6.4 326 19.9% -1.2% Bastwell 5.8 272 33.3% -3.2% Beardwood with Lammack 1.7 62 47.6% 10.7% Corporation Park 4.9 210 26.5% -2.8% Earcroft 4.5 119 12.3% -3.3% East Rural 1.0 12 -14.3% 20.0% Ewood 5.9 247 27.3% -2.0% Fernhurst 1.8 72 46.9% 4.3% Higher Croft 5.2 246 10.8% 0.0% Little Harwood 4.9 191 9.1% 1.6% Livesey with Pleasington 1.7 68 -1.4% -5.6% Marsh House 3.4 134 41.1% 1.5% Meadowhead 4.2 145 10.7% -2.7% Mill Hill 6.2 254 18.7% 5.0% North Turton with Tockholes 1.0 27 -3.6% -18.2% Queen's Park 6.0 222 9.9% -1.3% Roe Lee 2.6 91 12.3% -5.2% Shadsworth with Whitebirk 9.3 455 24.0% 0.9% Shear Brow 4.5 208 18.2% -10.0% Sudell 7.7 314 29.8% 2.3% Sunnyhurst 3.7 139 32.4% 3.0% Wensley Fold 8.4 366 17.3% -7.6% Whitehall 2.4 62 19.2% 0.0% 20.6% -1.4% December 2011 4.8 4,242 Total Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk Updated: Monthly Three wards with the highest claimant rates are Shadsworth with Whitebirk (9.3%), Wensley Fold (8.4%) and Sudell (7.7%). Five wards have experienced increases in the claimant count of 30% or more over the year. East Rural, North Turton with Tockholes and Livesey with Pleasington are three wards that have experienced a decrease in those claiming JSA. Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI). Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI). Further information This briefing was prepared by: Saeed Patel Research and Intelligence Officer Corporate Research Joint Intelligence 3rd Floor Old Town Hall saeed.patel@blackburn.gov.uk 01254 58(5106) Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).