Corporate Research briefing paper
July 2012 Job Seekers Allowance
Background
This report analyses the number of people who were in receipt of Job Seekers Allowance
(JSA) in July 2012.
The unemployment figures presented in this monitor are published by the Office for
National Statistics (ONS) each month. Claimant unemployment percentages are
calculated by dividing the number of claimants by the number of local authority area
residents aged 16-64. This claimant count measure was introduced in January 2003 and
replaced the previous measure based on workforce rates.
Unemployment is often measured by the uptake of Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) benefit.
This takes into account those who are unemployed and seeking employment but not
people who are unemployed and not seeking work.
NB: The population figures used to calculate residence-based proportions (rates) have changed
from working age (16-59f/64m) to aged 16-64 for both males and females. This change affects
rates for all dates. So rates for all dates will differ to those downloaded previously.
1. Summary
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The claimant rate in Blackburn with Darwen (5.0%) is higher than the North West
rate of (4.4%) and the national rate of 3.8%.
Regionally and nationally the rate has remained unchanged following a fall for
three successive months. In contrast Blackburn with Darwen has seen an increase in
its claimant rate for the second consecutive month since May 2012.
The rate has risen over the last month. There are 107 more claimants this month
compared to June 2012, but 209 more claimants compared to July 2011.
The annual change shows 6.6% more female claimants, male claimants increased
by 4.2%. The overall number of JSA claimants increased by 4.5%.
The claimant rate of 5.0% for Blackburn with Darwen equates to a total of 4,413
people, approximately 69.0% of whom are male.
The male claimant rate of 6.8% is higher than that of females (3.2%).
In July 2012, 1,017 people started claiming JSA, and 826 stopped, i.e. more people
joined the claimant count than left, 12.4% more people joined but only 3.9% left the
claimant count compared to July 2011. Compared to the previous month on-flows
decreased by 9% and off-flows by approximately a fifth.
The majority of claimants over a half (54.4%) are between the ages of 25-49.
Claimants aged 25-49 have increased by 80 or 3.4% over the year, claimants aged
50+ increased by 8.8% and 18-24 year olds by 6.1% during the same period.
Approximately 22.6% of claimants have been claiming for over 12 months and are
classed as ‘long term unemployed’.
Long term claimants have more than doubled, increasing by 400 to 995, a 148%
increase over the year.
Three wards with the highest claimant rates are Shadsworth with Whitebirk (9.7%),
Wensley Fold (9.6%), and Sudell (7.4%).
In total 15 wards have experienced increases in claimants with three experiencing
increases of 15% or more. Seven wards have experienced a decrease in claimants
over the last year.
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
2 Headline claimant rates
In July 2012, 5.0% of the working population in Blackburn with Darwen were claiming Job
Seekers Allowance (JSA), this is higher than the regional rate of 4.4% and the national rate
of 3.8%. The Blackburn with Darwen rate increased for the second month running. The
regional and national rates remain the same, and have fallen for the third successive
month prior to today’s release..
Table 1: Headline Claimant rate in Blackburn with Darwen July 2012.
Claimant rates by gender:
Total Claimants Male Claimants Female claimants
Area
N
Rate
N
Rate
N
Rate
Blackburn with Darwen
4,413
5.0%
3,028
6.8%
1,385
3.2%
North West
199,107
4.4% 134,820 6.0%
64,287
2.9%
Great Britain
1,508,910 3.8% 994,776
5.1%
514,134
2.6%
Source: Claimant Count, Nomis
Figure 1 illustrates current JSA claimant rates by gender for July 2012.
Figure 2: Claimant Rate trends
Figure 1: JSA Claimant Rate
Rate as a proportion of the 16-64 population
8
7
6
5
6
Blackburn with Darwen
North West
Great Britain
6.8
6
5.1
5
%4
Rate: % of 16-64 population
5
4
% 3
4.4
3.8
3
3.2
2
2.9
2.6
2
1
1
Blackburn with Darwen
North West
Great Britain
Male
Female
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
All People
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
0
0
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
The rate equates to a total of 4,413 people claiming JSA in the borough, this being made
up of 3,028 males and 1,385 females. Approximately seven out of ten claimants are male.
The claimant rate of 6.8% for males is higher than the claimant rate for females (3.2%).
3. On and off Flows
In July 2012, 1,017 people started claiming JSA, and 826 stopped, i.e. more people joined
the claimant count than left, 12.4% more people joined but only 3.9% left the claimant
count compared to last year. Compared to the previous month on-flows decreased by a
9% and off-flows by approximately a fifth.
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
Figure 3: On-flows and Off-flows to Claimant Count
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
4. Change over time
The July 2012 claimant rate shows an annual increase of 4.5% and a monthly increase of
1.7%.
Table 2: Monthly and annual change in claimant rates
Claimant rates by gender:
Claimants July 2012 Monthly change
Annual change
Area
N
Rate
+/+/- %
+/+/- %
Male
3,028
6.8%
+75
2.5%
123
4.2%
Female
1,385
3.2%
+95
7.4%
86
6.6%
Total
4,413
5.0%
+170
4.0%
209
5.0%
Source: Jobcentre Plus, Nomis
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The percentage change over the previous month shows an increase for all groups.
Male claimants increased by 2.5% and females by 7.4%. The overall increase in
claimants over the month is 4.0%.
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The annual change also shows an increase for all groups. Male claimants increased
by 4.2% and females by 6.6%. The overall number of JSA claimants increased by
5.0%.
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
The graph below trends claimant rate by gender
Over the last year there has been an increase in the number of claimants within the
borough by 5.0% or 209. This is reflected in an increase for both the male and female
claimant rates. Three fifths of this increase is accounted for by males. The monthly figures
show 170 more claimants, over a half of these (55%) are female.
The graph below shows claimant count figures by gender indexed to January 2006, it can
be seen that female claimant count rate rose sharply after February 2008 and has
increased at a faster rate than that for males and continues to be at a higher level than
for males.
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
5. Age and duration of job seekers allowance claimants and claims
The majority of claimants over a half (54.4%) are between the ages of 25-49. Claimants
aged 25-49 have decreased by 3.4% over the year, the largest percentage increase in
claimants is for those aged 18-24 increasing by 8.8% or 50 since July 2011. Claimants aged
50+ increased by 80 or 6.1% over the same period.
Fig 3: JSA Claimants by age
Fig 4. JSA Claimants by duration
Table 3: Age and duration of job seekers allowance claimants in Blackburn with Darwen
July 2012.
Age of blackburn with Darwen JSA claimants
Claimants
Annual change
Age
N
%
+/+/- %
Aged 18-24
1,390
38.1%
+80
+6.1%
Aged 25-49
2,400
38.1%
+80
+3.4%
Aged 50+
620
23.8%
+50
+8.8%
Duration of Blackburn with Darwen JSA Claimants
Claimants
Duration
N
%
Up to 6 months
2,595
58.8%
Over 6 months and up to 12 months
820
18.6%
Over 12 months
995
22.6%
+/-350
-30
595
Annual change
+/- %
-11.9%
-3.5%
+148.8%
Figures rounded up or down
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
Fifty-nine percent of claimants have been receiving the benefit for 6 months or less.
However 995 or 23% claim for over 12 months and are classed as ‘long term unemployed’.
The number of claimants claiming for 6 months or less has decreased by 11.9% over the
year, while those claiming for 6-12 months decreased by 3.5%. Those claiming for over 12
months increased by 595, from 400 to 995, an increase of 149%. For the first time we are
seeing the number claiming for 12+ months overtake those who have been claiming for
between 6-12 months.
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
The graph below shows claimants by age and by duration, indexed to January
2006, both show sharp increases over last eight month period relative to January
2006 especially for those aged 18-24 and for long term claimants.
Figure 5: Claimants by age (Jan06=100)
Figure 6: Claimants by duration (Jan06=100)
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
6. Long term claimants (over 12 months)
People claiming JSA for 12 months or more are classed as long term unemployed. There
are currently 995 long term claimants in Blackburn with Darwen (23% of all claimants), up
by 50 on the previous month and 595 annually. Those claiming for 12 months or more have
doubled increasing by over 149% since July 2011 and by 5.3% on the previous month.
The graph below shows long term claimants by age.
There were 5 long terms claimants aged 18-24 in July 2011, these have now
increased to 185 in July 2012, an increase of 180 over the year. Long term
claimants aged 25-49 have doubled (95.2% - 315 to 615) and long term claimants
aged 50+ have increased by 143% (80 to 195).
Three-fifths of long term claimants are aged 25-49, approximately a fifth are aged 50+ and
18-24. The proportion of claimants aged 18-24 have increased from 13% in March 2012 to
14.4% in April to 15.3% in May, increasing further to 16.3% in June 2012 and to 18.6% in July
2012.
The general trend is that long term claimants (12+ months) for each age group are
increasing with 25-49 year olds experiencing the sharpest and most sustained
increase. The trend now is seen for the other age groups with those aged 18-24
experiencing a sharp increase over the last 12 months or so.
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
7. Youth unemployment (aged 18-24)
There are currently 1,390 young claimants aged 18-24 in Blackburn with Darwen (31% of all
claimants). The JSA claimant rate for 18-24 year olds (10.0%) is historically higher than the
regional (8.5%) and national average (7.5%).
Claimants aged 18-24 show an annual and monthly increase of 6.1% or 80.
The graphs below show 18-24 year old claimants by duration, the same data is also
indexed to January 2006. The graphs show those claiming for 6 months or less decreasing,
while those claiming for 6-12 months and 12+ months increasing.
The indexed data shows 18-24 year old claimants claiming for 6-12 months and 12+
months grew at a faster rate than those claiming for less than 6 months.
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Two thirds of claimants aged 18-24 were claiming for six months or less and a
fifth between 6-12 months.
18-24 year olds claiming for six months or less decreased by a fifth or 245 over
the year but increased by 12% or 95 over the month. Those claiming for 6-12
months increased by 145 or 93% over the year but decreased by 13% or 45 over
the month.
Those claiming for 12+ months increased by 180 from 5 to 180 over the year, an
increase of 3600%, and by a fifth or 30 over the month.
Table 4: 18-24 year old claimant by duration in Blackburn with Darwen
July 2012.
Duration of blackburn with Darwen JSA claimants
Claimants
Annual change
Age
N
%
+/+/- %
< 6 months
905
65.1%
-245
-21.3%
6-12 months
300
21.6%
145
93.5%
12+ months
185
13.3%
180
3600%
Figures rounded up or down
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
8. Claimants aged 50+
Those aged 50+ make up approximately 14% of all JSA claimants. A half of all 50+
claimants (50.8%) are aged 50-54, two fifths are aged 55-59. In total these two sub-groups
make up 91.9% of all the 50+ claimants. A small minority (8.1%) are aged 60 or over.
Table 5: JSA Claimants aged 50+
Claimants
Age
N
%
Annual change
+/+/- %
50-54
315
50.8%
-
-
55-59
60 or over
255
50
41.1%
8.1%
40
10
18.6%
25%
Figures rounded up or down
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
Claimants aged 55-59 increased by 18.6%. Those aged over 60 increased by 10, an
increase of a quarter on last year. 50+ claimants increased by 1.6% over the month.
(NB, the percentage change for 60+ is based on small numbers).
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
9. Job seekers allowance claimant rates across Blackburn with Darwen wards.
Rate
Claimants
Annual
Change
Monthly
change
Audley
6.6
334
5.4%
4.0%
Bastwell
5.8
270
1.9%
4.2%
Beardwood with Lammack
1.5
52
-10.3%
6.1%
Corporation Park
5.0
216
2.9%
11.9%
Earcroft
4.7
125
10.6%
3.3%
East Rural
0.8
10
0.0%
0.0%
Ewood
5.6
231
-7.2%
9.0%
Fernhurst
1.6
64
-20.0%
0.0%
Higher Croft
5.5
259
14.1%
4.0%
Little Harwood
4.5
174
-13.4%
2.4%
Livesey with Pleasington
2.0
81
17.4%
-4.7%
Marsh House
3.6
143
6.7%
7.5%
Meadowhead
4.9
170
3.0%
1.8%
Mill Hill
6.9
283
9.3%
7.2%
North Turton with Tockholes
1.0
27
-10.0%
35.0%
Queen's Park
6.7
251
15.1%
6.8%
Roe Lee
3.4
121
16.3%
15.2%
Shadsworth with Whitebirk
9.7
472
14.6%
2.6%
Shear Brow
4.5
208
-3.7%
-5.5%
Sudell
7.4
305
7.8%
-1.9%
Sunnyhurst
4.2
156
10.6%
9.9%
Wensley Fold
9.6
416
11.8%
3.2%
Whitehall
1.7
45
-35.7%
-10.0%
Total
5.0
4,413
5.0%
4.0%
July 2012
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
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Three wards with the highest claimant rates are Shadsworth with Whitebirk (9.7%),
Wensley Fold (9.6%), and Sudell (7.4%).
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In total 15 wards have experienced increases in claimants. Three in particular Roe
Lee, Queen’s Park and Shadsworth with Whitebirk have experienced increases in
the claimant count of approximately 15% or more.

Seven wards have experienced a decrease in the number of claimants over the
last year.
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
Further information
This briefing was prepared by: Saeed Patel
Research and Intelligence Officer
Corporate Research Joint Intelligence
3rd Floor Old Town Hall
saeed.patel@blackburn.gov.uk
01254 58(5106)
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).