Corporate Research briefing paper
September 2012 Job Seekers Allowance
Background
This report analyses the number of people who were in receipt of Job Seekers Allowance
(JSA) in September 2012.
The unemployment figures presented in this monitor are published by the Office for
National Statistics (ONS) each month. Claimant unemployment percentages are
calculated by dividing the number of claimants by the number of local authority area
residents aged 16-64. This claimant count measure was introduced in January 2003 and
replaced the previous measure based on workforce rates.
Unemployment is often measured by the uptake of Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) benefit.
This takes into account those who are unemployed and seeking employment but not
people who are unemployed and not seeking work.
NB: The population figures used to calculate residence-based proportions (rates) have changed
from working age (16-59f/64m) to aged 16-64 for both males and females. This change affects
rates for all dates. So rates for all dates will differ to those downloaded previously.
1. Summary
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The claimant rate in Blackburn with Darwen (5.1%) is higher than the North West
rate of (4.4%) and the national rate of 3.8%.
Regionally and nationally the rate has remained unchanged for the fourth
successive month following a fall for two successive months prior to this.
The rate for Blackburn with Darwen has fallen over the last month. There are 57
fewer claimants this month compared to last month, but 22 more claimants
compared to last year.
The annual change shows 4.8% more female claimants, male claimants decreased
by 1.5%. The overall number of JSA claimants increased by less than 1%.
The claimant rate of 5.1% for Blackburn with Darwen equates to a total of 4,476
people, approximately 68.0% of whom are male.
The male claimant rate of 6.8% is higher than that of females (3.3%).
In September 2012, 1,154 people started claiming JSA, and 1,199 stopped, i.e.
fewer people joined the claimant count than left, 18.6% more people joined but
39.4% more left the claimant count compared to September 2012. Compared to
the previous month on-flows decreased by a fifth and off-flows by 45%.
The majority of claimants over a half (54.7%) are between the ages of 25-49.
Claimants aged 25-49 have increased by 65 or 2.7% over the year, claimants aged
50+ increased by 10.6%. 18-24 year olds claimants decreased by 6.7% during the
same period.
Approximately a quarter of claimants have been claiming for over 12 months and
are classed as ‘long term unemployed’.
Long term claimants have more than doubled, increasing to 1,085 from 450 a year
ago (141% increase) and from 1,030 to 1,085 over the last month (5.3%).
Eleven wards have experienced an increase and eleven a decrease in claimants
since last year.
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2 Headline claimant rates
In September 2012, 5.1% of the working age population in Blackburn with Darwen were
claiming Job Seekers Allowance (JSA), this is higher than the regional rate of 4.4% and the
national rate of 3.8%. The Blackburn with Darwen rate has decreased over the last month,
the regional and national rates have remained unchanged for the fourth consecutive
month.
Table 1: Headline Claimant rate in Blackburn with Darwen September 2012.
Claimant rates by gender:
Total Claimants Male Claimants Female claimants
Area
N
Rate
N
Rate
N
Rate
Blackburn with Darwen
4,476
5.1%
3,027
6.8%
1,449
3.3%
North West
197,652
4.4% 131,500 5.9%
66,152
2.9%
Great Britain
1,488,740 3.8% 962,770
4.9%
525,970
2.7%
Source: Claimant Count, Nomis
Figure 1 illustrates current JSA claimant rates by gender for September 2012.
Figure 2: Claimant Rate trends
Figure 1: JSA Claimant Rate
Rate as a proportion of the 16-64 population
8
7
6
5
6
Blackburn with Darwen
North West
Great Britain
6.8
5.9
5.1
4.9
%4
Rate: % of 16-64 population
5
4
% 3
4.4
3.8
3
3.3
2
2
2.9 2.7
1
1
Blackburn with Darwen
North West
Great Britain
Male
Female
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
All People
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
0
0
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
The rate equates to a total of 4,476 people claiming JSA in the borough, this being made
up of 3,027 males and 1,449 females. Approximately seven out of ten claimants are male.
The claimant rate of 6.8% for males is higher than the claimant rate for females (3.3%).
3. On and off Flows
In September 2012, 1,154 people started claiming JSA, and 1,199 stopped, i.e. fewer
people joined the claimant count than left, 18.6% more people joined but 39.4% more left
the claimant count compared to September 2012. Compared to the previous month onflows decreased by a fifth and off-flows by 45%.
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
Figure 3: On-flows and Off-flows to Claimant Count
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
4. Change over time
The September 2012 claimant rate shows an annual increase of less than 1% and a
monthly decrease of 1.3%.
Table 2: Monthly and annual change in claimant rates
Claimant rates by gender:
Claimants September 2012 Monthly change
Area
N
Rate
+/+/- %
Male
3,027
6.8%
-48
-1.6%
Female
1,449
3.3%
-9
-0.6%
Total
4,476
5.1%
-57
-1.3%
Source: Jobcentre Plus, Nomis
Annual change
+/+/- %
-45
-1.5%
+67
+4.8%
+22
+0.5%
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The percentage change over the previous month shows a decrease for all groups.
Male claimants decreased by 1.6% and females by less than 1%. The overall
decrease in claimants over the month is 1.3%.
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The annual change shows an increase for female claimants. Female claimants
increased by 67 or 4.8% while male claimants decreased by 45 or 1.5%. The overall
number of JSA claimants increased by 22 or 0.5%.
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
The graph below trends claimant rate by gender
The claimant rate in September 2012 within the borough has changed little from that
recorded 12 months ago, Claimant levels continue to high for the borough. During the last
12 months the number of claimants within the borough has been above the 4, 000 mark.
The monthly figures show 57 fewer claimants, A higher proportion (84%) of the monthly
decrease is accounted for by male claimants.
The graph below shows claimant count figures by gender indexed to January 2006, it can
be seen that female claimant count rate rose sharply after February 2008 and has
increased at a faster rate than that for males and continues to be at a higher level than
for males.
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
5. Age and duration of job seekers allowance claimants and claims
The majority of claimants over a half (54.7%) are between the ages of 25-49. Claimants
aged 25-49 have increased by 2.7% over the year, the largest percentage increase in
claimants is for those aged 50+ increasing by 1.1% or 60 since September 2011. Claimants
aged 18-24 decreased by 100 or 6.7% over the same period.
Fig 3: JSA Claimants by age
Fig 4. JSA Claimants by duration
Table 3: Age and duration of job seekers allowance claimants in Blackburn with Darwen
September 2012.
Age of blackburn with Darwen JSA claimants
Claimants
Annual change
Age
N
%
+/+/- %
Aged 18-24
1,400
31.3%
-100
-6.7%
Aged 25-49
2,450
54.7%
+65
+2.7%
Aged 50+
625
14.0%
+60
+10.6%
Duration of Blackburn with Darwen JSA Claimants
Claimants
Duration
N
%
Up to 6 months
2,960
60.1%
Over 6 months and up to 12 months
700
15.6%
Over 12 months
1,085
24.2%
+/-355
-255
+635
Annual change
+/- %
-11.7%
-26.7%
+141.1%
Figures rounded up or down
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
Three out of five claimants have been receiving the benefit for 6 months or less. However,
a quarter, (1,085) have been claiming for over 12 months and are classed as ‘long term
unemployed’.
The number of claimants claiming for 6 months or less has decreased by 11.7% over the
year, while those claiming for 6-12 months decreased by 26.7%. Those claiming for over 12
months increased by 635, from 450 to 1,085, an increase of 141%. For the fifth consecutive
month we are seeing the number of claimants claiming for 12+ months exceeding those
who have been claiming for between 6-12 months.
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
The graph below shows claimants by age and by duration, indexed to January
2006, both show sharp increases over last eight month period relative to January
2006 especially for those aged 18-24 and for long term claimants.
Figure 5: Claimants by age (Jan06=100)
Figure 6: Claimants by duration (Jan06=100)
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
6. Long term claimants (over 12 months)
People claiming JSA for 12 months or more are classed as long term unemployed. There
are currently 1,085 long term claimants in Blackburn with Darwen (a quarter of all
claimants), up by 55 on the previous month and 635 annually. Those claiming for 12
months or more have doubled increasing by over 141% since September 2011 and by
5.3% on the previous month.
The graph below shows long term claimants by age.
There were 5 long terms claimants aged 18-24 in September 2011, these have now
increased to 245 in September 2012, an increase of 240 over the year. Long term
claimants aged 25-49 have doubled (increasing from 350 to 635) and long term claimants
aged 50+ have increased by 116% (95 to 205).
Nearly 60% of all long term claimants are aged 25-49, over a fifth (22%) but less than a
quarter are aged 18-24 and 19% are aged 50+. The proportion of long term claimants
aged 18-24 have increased from 13% in March 2012 to 14.4% in April to 15.3% in May,
increasing further to 16.3% in June 2012 and to 18.6% in July 2012. 18-24 year old made up
a fifth of all long term claimants in August 2012, they now account for 22.6% of all long
term claimants in September 2012.
The general trend is that long term claimants (12+ months) for each age group are
increasing with 25-49 year olds experiencing the sharpest and most sustained increase.
The trend now is seen for the other age groups with those aged 18-24 experiencing a
sharp increase over the last 12 months or so. The proportion of long term claimants aged
18-24 now exceed long term claimants aged 50+.
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
7. Youth unemployment (aged 18-24)
There are currently 1,400 young claimants aged 18-24 in Blackburn with Darwen (31% of all
claimants). The JSA claimant rate for 18-24 year olds (10.1%) is historically higher than the
regional (8.5%) and national average (7.4%).
Claimants aged 18-24 show an annual decrease of 6.7% and a monthly decrease of 5.4%.
The graphs below show 18-24 year old claimants by duration, the same data is also
indexed to January 2006. The graphs show those claiming for 6 months or less decreasing,
while those claiming for 6-12 months and 12+ months increasing.
The indexed data shows 18-24 year old claimants claiming for 6-12 months and 12+
months grew at a faster rate than those claiming for less than 6 months.
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Two thirds of claimants aged 18-24 were claiming for six months or less and 1 in 8
between 6-12 months.
18-24 year olds claiming for six months or less decreased by a quarter or 305
over the year and by 3.5% or 35 over the month. Those claiming for 6-12 months
also decreased, this group shows an annual decrease of 13% and a monthly
decrease of 30%.
Those claiming for 12+ months increased by 240 from 5 to 245 over the year, an
increase of 4,800%, and by 45 or 23% over the month.
Table 4: 18-24 year old claimant by duration in Blackburn with Darwen
September 2012.
Duration of blackburn with Darwen JSA claimants
Claimants
Annual change
Age
N
%
+/+/- %
< 6 months
965
68.7%
-305
-24%
6-12 months
195
13.9%
-30
-13.3%
12+ months
245
17.4%
240
+4800%
Figures rounded up or down
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
8. Claimants aged 50+
Those aged 50+ make up approximately 14% of all JSA claimants. A half of all 50+
claimants (50.0%) are aged 50-54, two fifths are aged 55-59. In total these two sub-groups
make up 91.2% of all the 50+ claimants. A small minority (8.8%) are aged 60 or over.
Table 5: JSA Claimants aged 50+
Claimants
Age
N
%
Annual change
+/+/- %
50-54
315
50.4%
-
-
55-59
60 or over
255
55
40.8%
8.8%
50
10
24.4%
22.2%
Figures rounded up or down
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
Claimants aged 55-59 increased by 24.4%. Those aged over 60 increased by 10, an
increase of 22% on last year. 50+ claimants overall increased by 1.6% over the month.
(NB, the percentage change for 60+ is based on small numbers).
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
9. Job seekers allowance claimant rates across Blackburn with Darwen wards.
September 2012
Annual
Change
Monthly
change
Rate
Claimants
Audley
6.7
351
0.6%
-2.8%
Bastwell
6.3
286
-2.7%
-0.3%
Beardwood with Lammack
2.0
57
-12.7%
8.8%
Corporation Park
5.1
226
-7.7%
-10.2%
Earcroft
4.6
120
8.9%
12.5%
East Rural
0.9
14
9.1%
-14.3%
Ewood
6.1
249
-3.1%
-0.8%
Fernhurst
1.8
66
-17.8%
-9.1%
Higher Croft
5.4
247
1.6%
5.7%
Little Harwood
5.5
188
-8.5%
3.2%
Livesey with Pleasington
1.9
79
6.5%
3.8%
Marsh House
3.4
142
-4.5%
-9.9%
Meadowhead
4.6
175
7.6%
-2.9%
Mill Hill
6.2
290
11.8%
-1.7%
North Turton with Tockholes
1.2
33
0.0%
-3.0%
Queen's Park
6.3
253
11.0%
3.6%
Roe Lee
3.2
114
-15.8%
-15.8%
Shadsworth with Whitebirk
9.2
480
4.9%
-2.3%
Shear Brow
5.2
209
-9.7%
2.4%
Sudell
7.8
313
-9.4%
-7.3%
Sunnyhurst
3.7
166
23.4%
1.8%
Wensley Fold
9.0
425
9.5%
0.5%
Whitehall
2.4
50
-16.1%
4.0%
0.5%
-1.3%
Total
5.1
4,533
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
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Three wards with the highest claimant rates are Shadsworth with Whitebirk (9.2%),
Wensley Fold (9.0%), and Sudell (7.8%).
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In total, 11 wards have experienced an increase in claimants since last year. The
largest percentage increase has been in Sunnyhurst where claimants have
increased by 32 or a quarter. Wensley Fold and Mill Hill have seen the number of
claimants increase by a similar amount but in percentage terms show a much
smaller increase. This is due to the fact that these wards have claimant rates far
above the Blackburn with Darwen rate.
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Eleven wards have experienced a decrease in the number of claimants over the
last year.
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
Further information
This briefing was prepared by: Saeed Patel
Research and Intelligence Officer
Corporate Research Joint Intelligence
3rd Floor Old Town Hall
saeed.patel@blackburn.gov.uk
01254 58(5106)
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).