Corporate Research briefing paper
January 2013 Job Seekers Allowance
Background
This report analyses the number of people who were in receipt of Job Seekers Allowance
(JSA) in January 2013.
The unemployment figures presented in this monitor are published by the Office for
National Statistics (ONS) each month. Claimant unemployment percentages are
calculated by dividing the number of claimants by the number of local authority area
residents aged 16-64. This claimant count measure was introduced in January 2003 and
replaced the previous measure based on workforce rates.
Unemployment is often measured by the uptake of Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) benefit.
This takes into account those who are unemployed and seeking employment but not
people who are unemployed and not seeking work.
NB: The population figures used to calculate residence-based proportions (rates) have changed
from working age (16-59f/64m) to aged 16-64 for both males and females. This change affects
rates for all dates. So rates for all dates will differ to those downloaded previously.
1. Summary
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The claimant rate in Blackburn with Darwen (4.6%) is higher than the North West
rate of (4.4%) and the national rate of 3.8%.
Regionally and nationally the rate has increased following a fall for two successive
months prior to this.
The rate for Blackburn with Darwen has increased over the last month. There are 96
more claimants this month compared to last year.
The annual change shows 31 more female claimants, and 65 more male claimants.
The overall number of JSA claimants increased by 96, a 2.2% decrease.
The claimant rate of 4.6% for Blackburn with Darwen equates to a total of 4,366
people, approximately 70.0% of whom are male.
The male claimant rate of 6.4% is higher than that of females (2.8%).
In January 2013, 781 people started claiming JSA, and 684 stopped, i.e. more
people joined the claimant count than left, 23.4% fewer people joined and 17.0%
fewer left the claimant count compared to January 2012. Compared to the
previous month on-flows decreased by a fifth (19.2%) and off-flows decreased by a
third (32.1%).
The majority of claimants over a half (56.5%) are between the ages of 25-49.
Claimants aged 25-49 have increased by 105 or 4.4% over the year, claimants
aged 50+ increased by 7.8%. 18-24 year olds claimants decreased by 15% during
the same period.
Approximately a quarter of claimants (25.2%) have been claiming for over 12
months and are classed as ‘long term unemployed’.
Long term claimants have more than doubled, increasing to 1,100 from 690 a year
ago (59.4% increase).
Seven wards have experienced an increase and fourteen a decrease in claimants
since last year.
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2 Headline claimant rates
In January 2013, 4.6% of the working age population in Blackburn with Darwen were
claiming Job Seekers Allowance (JSA), this is higher than the regional rate of 4.4% and the
national rate of 3.8%. The Blackburn with Darwen, national and regional rates have all
increased over the last month this was preceded by a fall in the claimant count rate for
the previous two months.
Table 1: Headline Claimant rate in Blackburn with Darwen January 2013.
Claimant rates by gender:
Total Claimants Male Claimants Female claimants
Area
N
Rate
N
Rate
N
Rate
Blackburn with Darwen
4,366
4.6%
3,063
6.4%
1,303
2.8%
North West
198,553
4.4% 134,246 5.9%
64,307
2.8%
Great Britain
1,515,843 3.8% 996,783
5.0%
519,060
2.6%
Source: Claimant Count, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Figure 1 illustrates current JSA claimant rates by gender for January 2013.
Figure 2: Claimant Rate trends
Figure 1: JSA Claimant Rate
Rate as a proportion of the 16-64 population
7
6
6
Blackburn with Darwen
North West
Great Britain
6.4
5.9
5
5
4.6
4
%
4.4
Rate: % of 16-64 population
5
4
% 3
3.8
3
2
2.8 2.8
2
2.6
1
1
Blackburn with Darwen
North West
Great Britain
Male
Female
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
All People
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
0
0
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
The rate equates to a total of 4,366 people claiming JSA in the borough, this being made
up of 3,063 males and 1,303 females. Approximately seven out of ten claimants are male.
The claimant rate of 6.4% for males is higher than the claimant rate for females (2.8%).
3. On and off Flows
In January 2013, 781 people started claiming JSA, and 684 stopped, i.e. more people
joined the claimant count than left, 23.4% fewer people joined and 17.0% fewer left the
claimant count compared to January 2012. Compared to the previous month on-flows
decreased by a fifth (19.2%) and off-flows decreased by a third (32.1%).
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
Figure 3: On-flows and Off-flows to Claimant Count
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
4. Change over time
The January 2013 claimant rate shows 75 fewer claimants compared to last year, a 1.7%
decrease. The monthly figures however show a 2.2% increase, or 96 more claimants.
Table 2: Monthly and annual change in claimant rates
Claimant rates by gender:
Claimants January 2013 Monthly change
Area
N
Rate
+/+/- %
Male
3,063
4.6
65
2.2%
Female
1,303
2.8
31
2.4%
Total
4,366
6.4
196
2.2%
Source: Jobcentre Plus, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Annual change
+/+/- %
-46
-1.5%
-29
-2.2%
-75
-1.7%
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The percentage change over the previous month shows an increase for all groups.
Male claimants increased by 2.2% and females by 2.4%. The overall increase in
claimants over the month is 2.2%.
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The annual change shows a decrease. There were 46 fewer male claimants, a
decrease of 1.5% and 29 fewer female claimants (a 2.2% decrease). In total, there
are 75 fewer claimants than the same time last year.
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
The graph below trends claimant rate by gender
The claimant rate in January 2013 within the borough shows fewer claimants from that
recorded 12 months ago, claimant levels however continue to high for the borough.
During the last 12 months the number of claimants within the borough has been above
the 4,000 mark. The monthly figures show 96 more claimants, two-thirds of the monthly
increase is accounted for by male claimants.
The graph below shows claimant count figures by gender indexed to January 2006, it can
be seen that female claimant count rate rose sharply after February 2008 and has
increased at a faster rate than that for males and continues to be at a higher level than
for males.
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
5. Age and duration of job seekers allowance claimants and claims
The majority of claimants over a half (56.5%) are between the ages of 25-49. Claimants
aged 25-49 have increased by 4.4% over the year, the largest percentage increase in
claimants is for those aged 50+ increasing by 7.8% or 45 since January 2012. Claimants
aged 18-24 decreased by 225 or 15% over the same period.
Fig 3: JSA Claimants by age
Fig 4. JSA Claimants by duration
Table 3: Age and duration of job seekers allowance claimants in Blackburn with Darwen
January 2013.
Age of blackburn with Darwen JSA claimants
Claimants
Annual change
Age
N
%
+/+/- %
Aged 18-24
1,275
29.2%
-225
-15.0%
Aged 25-49
2,465
56.5%
105
4.4%
Aged 50+
620
14.2%
45
7.8%
Duration of Blackburn with Darwen JSA Claimants
Claimants
Duration
N
%
Up to 6 months
2,565
58.8%
Over 6 months and up to 12 months
700
16.0%
Over 12 months
1,100
25.2%
Annual change
+/+/- %
-260
-9.2%
-225
-24.3%
410
410%
Figures rounded up or down
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
Three out of five claimants have been receiving the benefit for 6 months or less. However,
a quarter, (1,100) have been claiming for over 12 months and are classed as ‘long term
unemployed’.
The number of claimants claiming for 6 months or less has decreased by 9.2% over the
year, while those claiming for 6-12 months decreased by more than a quarter. Those
claiming for over 12 months increased by 410, from 690 to 1,100, an increase of over a
60%. For the ninth consecutive month we are seeing the number of claimants claiming for
12+ months exceeding those who have been claiming for between 6-12 months.
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
The graph below shows claimants by age and by duration, indexed to January
2006, long term claimants show a sharp increase over the last 12 months, 18-24
year old claimants show a positive trend with decreases over the last year.
Figure 5: Claimants by age (Jan06=100)
Figure 6: Claimants by duration (Jan06=100)
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
6. Long term claimants (over 12 months)
People claiming JSA for 12 months or more are classed as long term unemployed. There
are currently 1,100 long term claimants in Blackburn with Darwen (a quarter of all
claimants), there is little change in the number of claimants from the previous month’s
figures. Compared to last year there are 410 more long term claimants. Those claiming for
12 months or more have increased by 59.4% since January 2012.
The graph below shows long term claimants by age.
There were 65 long terms claimants aged 18-24 in January 2012, these have now
increased to 235 in January 2013, an increase of 170 over the year. Long term claimants
aged 25-49 have increased by over a third (increasing from 480 to 650) and long term
claimants aged 50+ have doubled from 145 to 215.
Three out of five long term claimants are aged 25-49, just over a fifth (21.4%) are aged 1824 and a similar percentage are aged 50+. The proportion of long term claimants aged
18-24 have increased from 13% in March 2012 to 14.4% in April to 15.3% in May, increasing
further to 16.3% in June 2012 and to 18.6% in July 2012. 18-24 year olds now account for a
fifth of all long term claimants in January 2013 a reduction from 23% in December 2012.
The general trend is that long term claimants (12+ months) for each age group are
increasing with 25-49 year olds experiencing the sharpest and most sustained increase.
The trend now is seen for the other age groups with those aged 18-24 experiencing a
sharp increase over the last 12 months or so. The proportion of long term claimants aged
18-24 now exceed long term claimants aged 50+, recent figures show this to be on a
downward trend
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7. Youth unemployment (aged 18-24)
There are currently 1,275 young claimants aged 18-24 in Blackburn with Darwen (29.2% of
all claimants). The JSA claimant rate for 18-24 year olds (9.5%) is historically higher than the
regional (8.1%) and national average (7.7%). All have increased over the last month.
Claimants aged 18-24 show an annual decrease of 15.0% and a monthly decrease of
2.4%.
The graphs below show 18-24 year old claimants by duration, the same data is also
indexed to January 2006. The graphs show those claiming for up to 12 months decreasing,
while those claiming 12+ months have increased.
The indexed data shows 18-24 year old claimants claiming for 6-12 months and 12+
months grew at a faster rate than those claiming for less than 6 months.
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Approximately seventy per cent of all 18-24 year old claimants have been
claiming for six months or less and 1 in 8 are claiming between 6-12 months.
18-24 year olds claiming for six months or less decreased by a quarter (23%) or
265 over the year but increased by 2.9% or 25 over the month. Those claiming
for 6-12 months also decreased, this group shows an annual decrease of over
40% and but a monthly increase of 3.3%.
Those claiming for 12+ months increased by 170 from 65 to 235 over the year,
the number claiming for this duration increase by over 250%.
Table 4: 18-24 year old claimant by duration in Blackburn with Darwen
January 2013.
Duration of blackburn with Darwen JSA claimants
Claimants
Annual change
Age
N
%
+/+/- %
< 6 months
885
69.4%
-265
-23.0%
6-12 months
155
12.2%
-135
-46.6%
12+ months
235
18.4%
170
261.5%
Figures rounded up or down
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
8. Claimants aged 50+
Those aged 50+ make up approximately 14.2% of all JSA claimants. A half of all 50+
claimants (50.0%) are aged 50-54, two fifths are aged 55-59. In total these two sub-groups
make up 90.0% of all the 50+ claimants. A small minority (10.0%) are aged 60 or over.
Table 5: JSA Claimants aged 50+
Claimants
Age
N
%
Annual change
+/+/- %
50-54
300
50.0%
-
-
55-59
60 or over
240
60
40.0%
10.0%
25
20
11.6%
50.0%
Figures rounded up or down
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
Claimants aged 55-59 increased by 11.6%. Those aged over 60 increased by 20, an
increase of 50% on last year. 50+ claimants overall increased by 12.1% over the year but
decreased by 4.0% over the month.
(NB, the percentage change for 60+ is based on small numbers).
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
9. Job seekers allowance claimant rates across Blackburn with Darwen wards.
Rate
Claimants
Annual
Change
Monthly
change
Audley
6.5
329
-4.4%
2.2%
Bastwell
5.9
277
-0.7%
12.6%
Beardwood with Lammack
1.5
52
0.0%
2.0%
Corporation Park
4.3
183
-15.3%
2.2%
Earcroft
5.4
144
11.6%
4.3%
East Rural
0.7
9
-10.0%
0.0%
Ewood
6.0
251
-3.1%
5.9%
Fernhurst
1.6
65
-11.0%
10.2%
Higher Croft
5.1
239
-4.4%
-0.8%
Little Harwood
4.5
175
-12.1%
1.7%
Livesey with Pleasington
1.6
63
-12.5%
-3.1%
Marsh House
3.3
131
-13.8%
-4.4%
Meadowhead
4.9
170
16.4%
-6.6%
Mill Hill
6.6
271
0.7%
-2.2%
North Turton with Tockholes
1.2
34
21.4%
21.4%
Queen's Park
7.5
279
22.4%
5.3%
Roe Lee
2.8
101
11.0%
16.1%
Shadsworth with Whitebirk
9.0
437
-7.8%
3.6%
Shear Brow
4.7
213
-10.1%
4.4%
Sudell
7.6
312
-3.4%
1.0%
Sunnyhurst
4.4
163
13.2%
-1.2%
Wensley Fold
9.7
419
4.5%
-1.2%
Whitehall
1.9
49
-24.6%
-3.9%
Total
4.6
4,366
-1.7%
2.2%
January 2013
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
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Three wards with the highest claimant rates are Wensley Fold (9.7%), Shadsworth
with Whitebirk (9.0%) and Sudell (7.6%).
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In total, 7 wards have experienced an increase in claimants since last year. The
largest percentage increase has been in Queen’s Park where claimants have
increased by a fifth (22.4%).
 Fourteen wards have experienced a decrease in the number of claimants over
the last year. The largest percentage decrease has been in Whitehall, down by a
quarter (24.6%).
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
Further information
This briefing was prepared by: Saeed Patel
Research and Intelligence Officer
Corporate Research Joint Intelligence
3rd Floor Old Town Hall
saeed.patel@blackburn.gov.uk
01254 58(5106)
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).