Contents
Blackburn with Darwen
Economic Trends
Date completed: March 2012
This report was prepared by
Saeed Patel
Corporate Research
Policy and Communications Department
01254 585106
Saeed.Patel@blackburn.gov.uk
The Economic Indicators research paper is published at intervals
throughout the year and aims to pull together information on the
economy of Blackburn with Darwen. The paper presents an overview of
the current economic situation in Blackburn with Darwen and provides a
reference source of some of the main economic statistics used.
People
Working age population
Structure of the Blackburn with Darwen labour market
Jobs – supply side
Employment rate
Unemployment rate
Claimant count
Self employment rate
Economically inactive
Out of work benefits
Adult qualifications
Jobs – demand side
Notified vacancies
Live unfilled vacancies
Claimants per jobcentre vacancy
Business
Business births and deaths
Personal insolvencies, debt orders and IVAs
Employment by sector
Earnings
Gross weekly earnings
Housing
House price and sales
Mortgage repossessions orders
Landlord repossession orders
Crime
All crime
Burglary
Auto crime
Criminal damage
Violent crime
Health
Page
3
4
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
10
10
10
11
11
12
13
14
14
15
16
16
16
16
16
17
Business
Earnings
Housing
 There has been a decrease in the employment rate over the last
four quarters from 64.6% in Sept 2010 to 61.2 in June 2011.
 53,800 were in employment at the end of June 2011 down from
54,200 at the end of March 2011, 54,800 in December 2010 and
56,900 in June 2010.
 Unemployment has risen by 200 over the year but has remained
at the same level for the last two time periods.
 The self employment rate is lower than regional and national
levels.
 The self employment rate has been decreasing over time, In
June 2009 self employment rates were 7.9%, since then the self
employment rate has fallen to 6.7% in June 2010 and to 6.3% in
June 2011. The rate however increased from 6.0% in March 2011
to 6.3% at the end of June 2011
 Inactivity rates have risen by 3.5% points (annually) in Blackburn
with Darwen, but fallen by 0.2% points over the last quarter.
 The claimant rate is higher than the regional and national
levels. The claimant rate has increase by 13% over the year and
by 0.9% on the previous month.
 The claimant rate of 5.0% is the 2nd highest of any Pennine
Lancashire district.
 19,870 people were claiming benefits in Blackburn with Darwen
for month end August 2011, 22.6% of the working age
population, higher than both the regional (18.0%) and national
rates (14.8%).
 1,094 job vacancies were advertised at the end of June 2011.
 Vacancy notifications are down by a quarter on the previous
year and 7% on the previous month.
 There were 756 live unfilled vacancies at month end September
2011.
 Claimants per live unfilled vacancy shows there to be 5.9
claimants per vacancy, up from 5.6 the previous month.
Crime
Demand side
JOBS
Supply side
Summary
 For the 2nd year running business deaths exceeded business births.
 There were 585 business deaths in 2010 and 445 business births, giving
a net loss of 140 jobs.
 Business births decreased by 4.2% points from 14.4% in 2004 to 10.2%
in 2010 in contrast, business deaths increased by 1 percentage point
from 12.4% in 2004 to 13.4% in 2010
 Average weekly earnings for BwD residents (£412.8) are lower than
regional and national levels.
 Male resident based earnings decreased by 10% and for females by
20%. The overall decrease in resident based earnings was 5.8%.
 Average house prices have been consistently lower than the North
West and Lancashire average.
 House sales are a quarter down on December 2011 levels.
 The overall price of a property is £77,978
 There have been a total of 70 court actions on mortgage arrears in
Blackburn with Darwen. An decrease of 7% on the same quarter of the
previous year
 There have been a total of 95 court actions on landlord mortgage
arrears in Blackburn with Darwen. No change on the same quarter of
the previous year
 The broad trend for crime has been downward, decreasing from
1,248 in April 2008 to 832 in February 2012. the average number of
crimes is 979. All crime has decreased by 0.55 over the year and 7.8%
over the month.
 Over the last 12 months there are on average of 37.5 burglaries per
month. Burglaries have increased by a 3.1% over the year and by a
quarter over the month.
 Auto crime – month on month variation, interspersed with decreases
followed by sharp increases. 76% annual increase.
 Criminal damage – overall downward trend 2% annual increase.
 Violent crime – shows month on month decrease since June 2011 ,
overall shows a shallow downward trend, with a 13.9% annual
decrease and 4.4% monthly decrease.
2
People
Working age population
Population change by age group 2010 to 2030
The current population of Blackburn with Darwen is 140,000, 62.9% of
whom are aged 16-64 (i.e. of working age). The working age population has
over the years increased in Blackburn with Darwen but is still lower than
the regional or national levels.
2010-based population projections
90+
2030 Female %
85-89
2030 Male %
80-84
2010 Female %
75-79
2010 Male %
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
Working age population (16-64)
Blackburn with Darwen
63.5
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
63
25-29
20-24
62.5
%
15-19
10-14
62
5-9
0-4
61.5
-10.0%
61
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Notable points for Blackburn with Darwen are:
60.5

60
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
59.5

Source: ONS mid year population estimates

By 2030 the population of Blackburn with Darwen is projected to increase
to 156,000, a 10.4% increase. Males are projected to increase by 12.7%
from 71,000 to 80,000, females are projected to increased but by a smaller
percentage 8.2%, an increase from 71,000 to 77,000 in 2030.
These long term changes are not immediately critical to the local
economy, what is more relevant is the change in age distribution of the
population which accompanies the changes in total numbers.
Those aged 0-14 are projected to increase by 8.2%, 15-64 by 6.1%
and 65+ by 38.9%
For the 15-64 age groups the projections give shifting patterns
between the groups. With the exception of 55-59 and 60-64 age
group which is projected to increase.
A projected increase in all age groups over 65 can be seen for
2030, projected to increase by 38.9%, this largely results from
projected increase in life expectancy.
One consequence of an increasing workforce and increasing younger and
older population are changes in the dependency ratio


Dependency ratios for those aged less than 16 are projected to
remain fairly stable over the next 20 years, with an slight increase
from 2014 onwards.
The old age dependency ratio is set to increase such that in 2030
the old age dependency ratio will be 26.4%, up from 19.6% rate
recorded in 2010.
3
Structure of the Blackburn with Darwen labour market
The diagram below shows the structure of the Blackburn with Darwen labour market. Please note percentages for each category have been calculated as a
percentage of the total working age population (88,000)
Total Population
Working Age (16-64)
88,000 - 100%
Working age
Economically active,
In employment Employees
48,700 (54.7%)
Working age,
Economically active
Working age
Economically inactive
60,600 (67.7%)
28,400 (32.3%)
Working age
Economically active –
Working age
Economically active
In employment
54,800 (61.2%)
- Unemployed*
Working Age
Economically active,
In employment Self-employed
5,800 (6.3%)
5,600 (9.3%)
Working age,
Economically active,
In employment –
Family workers and those
on Gov. Training schemes
300 (0.3%)
Working age
Economically inactive
-
Working age,
Economically inactive
-
Wants a job
7,100 (24.8%)
Does not want a job
21,400 (75.2%)
Working age, Economically inactive,
Wanting a job - reason for not looking
incl those who are:
Long term sick
Looking after family
Seeking work but unavailable
F/T students
Discouraged workers
Other
Retired
Looking after family
Full-time students
Permanently sick



Just over two thirds (60,600) of the working age population (88,000) are economically active.
Of the economically active population of 61.2% are in employment and 9.3% are unemployed.
Of those in employment 54.7% are employees and 6.3% are self – employed.

Of the 88,000 working age population, 28,400 or just under one third (32.3%) are economically inactive, 7,100 of these or 24.8% want a job, a large
proportion of the economically inactive population 21,400 or 75.2% of the working age population do not want a job.
4
Jobs – supply side

Key indicators for the local labour market include:






Employment rate
Unemployment rate
JSA claimant figures
Self employment
Economic inactivity rate
Out of work benefits

Local Authority Labour Market Statistics
Statistics regarding labour market employment, unemployment and
inactivity on a local authority basis are estimated using the Annual
Population Survey.
Employment rate
Unemployment rate (ILO)
The ILO unemployment rate is the number of ILO unemployed persons as
a percentage of the economically active population aged 16-64. It is a
more encompassing measure of unemployment than the claimant count
and enables international comparison of unemployment rates.
This is the proportion of the working age population (16-64) who are in
employment according to the International Labour Organisation (ILO)
definition.
8.0
6.0
4.0
Blackburn with Darwen
North West
Great Britain
2.0
Jun-11
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Mar-10
Jun-10
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Dec-08
Mar-09
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-07
Jun-07
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Dec-05
Mar-06
Dec-04
Historically employment rates in Blackburn with Darwen have been
lower than regionally or nationally.
0.0
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Blackburn with Darwen
North West
Great Britain
Source: ONS Annual population survey via Nomis

Unemployment rate 16-64
Blackburn with Darwen
10.0
%
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
%
12.0
Blackburn with Darwen
16-64 Employment Rate
74.0
72.0
70.0
68.0
66.0
64.0
62.0
60.0
58.0
56.0
54.0
The employment rate in Blackburn with Darwen for the 12 months
ending June 2011 is 3.7% points lower than the rate achieved for
the 12 months ending June 2010.
There has been a decrease in the employment rate over the last
four quarters from 64.6% in Sept 2010 to 61.2% in June 2011.
Source: ONS Annual population survey via Nomis
The graph above shows the ILO unemployment rate for Blackburn with
Darwen for the year ending June 2011. In contrast to the employment rate,
the unemployment rate has historically been higher than the regional and
national levels.
The unemployment rate has increased by 0.7% points when compared to
same period the previous year and has stabilised at the 9.6% rate for the
last two 12 months periods.
5
Claimant Count
The majority of claimants, over a half (53.0%) are aged 25-49. Claimants
aged 25-49 increased by 6.8% over the year. Just under two thirds (62.8%)
of claimants have been receiving the benefit for 6 months or less.
The claimant count measures only those people who are claiming
Jobseeker's Allowance. It is always lower than the Labour Force Survey
(LFS) official measure of unemployment, because some unemployed
people are not entitled to claim benefits, or choose not to do so. The
claimant count comes from the administrative records of Jobcentre Plus.
There are currently 1,510 young claimants aged 18-24 in Blackburn with
Darwen (a third of all claimants). The claimant rate for 18-24 year olds
historically has been higher than the regional and national average and
shows an increase of 22.8%.
 Three quarters of claimants aged 18-24 were claiming for six
months or less.
 18-24 year olds claiming for six months or less increased by 1.4% or
15 over the year while those claiming for 6-12 months increased by
180, an increase of 150%. Those claiming for 12 months plus
increased from 5 to 85.
In February 2012, 5.1% of the working population in Blackburn with Darwen
were claiming Job Seekers Allowance (JSA), this is higher than the North
West rate of 4.1% and the national rate of 4.7%.
The rate equates to a total of 4,481people claiming JSA in the borough,
this being made up of 3,122 males and 1,359 females. Approximately seven
out of ten claimants are male. The claimant rate of 7.0% for males is
higher than the claimant rate for females (3.1%).
Self employment rate
The February 2012 claimant rate shows an increase in the number of
claimants by 13% compared to the same month of the previous year.

The annual change shows approximately 20.6% MORE
female claimants, male claimants increased by a 10.0%
during the same period. The overall number of JSA
claimants increased by a 13.0%.
Blackburn with Darwen claimant count
6



The self-employment rate in Blackburn with Darwen has consistently been
below regional and national levels.
Self employment rates in Blackburn with Darwen show a downward trend since
June 2009.
In June 2009 self employment rates were 7.9%, this fell to 6.7% in June 2010
and to 6.3% in June 2011. NB. The rate however increased from 6.0% in March
2011 to 6.3% at the end of June 2011.
Rate as a % of 16-64 population
5
12
4
10
3
8
2
% 6
Blackburn with Darwen
North West
Great Britain
1
Feb-06
May-06
Aug-06
Nov-06
Feb-07
May-07
Aug-07
Nov-07
Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
0
Source: Claimant count, Nomisweb
Self employment rate
4
Blackburn with Darwen
North West
Great Britain
2
0
Dec 04
Mar 05
Jun 05
Sep 05
Dec 05
Mar 06
Jun 06
Sep 06
Dec 06
Mar 07
Jun 07
Sep 07
Dec 07
Mar 08
Jun 08
Sep 08
Dec 08
Mar 09
Jun 09
Sep 09
Dec 09
Mar 10
Jun 10
Sep 10
Dec 10
Mar-11
Jun 11
%
This self employment rate can be used as a measure of the level of
entrepreneurship in a particular area
Source: ONS Annual population survey via Nomis
6
7
Out of work benefits
DWP statistics show that there were 19,870 people (up by 370 on the
previous month) claiming benefits in Blackburn with Darwen, 22.6% of the
working age population, this is higher than both the regional and national
rates of 18% and 14.8% respectively.
Working age people in receipt of out of work benefits
N
21,000
20,500
20,000
19,500
19,000
18,500
18,000
17,500
17,000
16,500
16,000
%
24
20
12
North W est
Great Britain
Total=18.0
1.2
1.4
1.7
Total=14.8
Total =22.6
1.5
2
2
15
11.2
1.1
1.2
1.5
8.6
6.6
5
4.9
4.3
3.8
0
Job seekers
Lone parents
Others on income related benefits
Bereaved
ESA and incapacity benefits
Carers
Disabled
Source: DWP benefit claimants –working age client group (Aug 2011)
Inactivity rate, 16-64
Blackburn with Darwen
34
32
30
28
4
% 26
24
0
22
20
Blackburn with Darwen
North West
Great Britain
18
16
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Aug-10
Aug-09
Aug-08
Aug-07
Aug-06
Aug-05
Aug-04
Aug-03
Aug-02
Aug-01
Aug-00
Aug-99
Out of work benefit claimants
Out of work benefit rate
Blackburn with Darwen
10
Those aged 16-64 who are neither in employment nor unemployed. This
includes those who want a job but have not been seeking work in the last
four weeks, those who want a job and are seeking work but not available
to start work, and those who do not want a job.
8
16,540 of these claim key out of work benefits. The highest claimants are for ESA
or incapacity benefits. 9,900 or 11.2% of the working age population claim this
benefit compared to 8.6% in the North West and 6.6% nationally.
20
Economically Inactive
16
Source: DWP benefit claimants –working age client group
25
Of the 2,890 ESA claimants at August 2011, 1,290 were at the assessment
phase, 1,050 were in the work related activity group and 360 in the
support group. Hence, in addition to JSA claimants an additional 1,050
people are being assisted into work.
Source: ONS Annual population survey via Nomis

Inactivity rates have risen by 3.5% points (annually) in
Blackburn with Darwen and by 0.2% points nationally, in
contrast activity rates across the North West fell by 0.2%
points.
Economically inactive groups
Two of the three groups classified as inactive have increased their
percentage share over time. Inactive students increased from 18.6% to
20.5% in March 2011 and to 21.2% in June 2011, and those classified as
temporary sick increased from 2.5% to 4.3% and has now fallen to 3.2% for
the 12 months ending June 2011. Those who were retired decreased by
1.4% points from 13.9% to 12.5% but increased from 12.5% in March 2011 to
13.6% at the end of June 2011.
8
Adult qualifications
Data on educational attainment is available through two key sources, the
2001 census and the Annual Population Survey. The Annual Population
survey data is the most up-to date source.
This indicator concerns adult qualifications; and can affect both employers
and employees, a strong supply of people educated to a high level is
required by employers to grow their businesses. Where a local labour
market can not supply people to meet employer needs it can damage
business productivity. On the other hand a workforce with little or no
qualifications is more at risk of not being in paid work and of receiving low
rates of pay. Furthermore, individuals with no or very low qualifications
have seen their earnings increase less rapidly in comparison to other
groups in the workforce.
A quarter of the working age population in Blackburn with Darwen are
qualified to NVQ level 4 (degree and higher degree level qualification) this
compares poorly with North West (28.7%) and the national average (31.3%).
No qualifications
In 2010 18.1% of the working age population held no recognised
qualifications. This was 12.1% for the North West and 11.3% nationally. In
absolute terms, there are an estimated 15,900 people in Blackburn with
Darwen with no qualification
Not in Employment, Education or Training (NEET)
The number of 16-18 year olds not in employment, education or training in
Blackburn with Darwen varies on a monthly basis, and is also subject to
seasonal variation. Data for April 2011 to March 2012 shows that on
average there were 540 young people aged 16 to 18 classified as NEET
compared to 679 the previous year, the percentage of young people who
are NEET in Blackburn with Darwen is 8.8% compared to 6.8% in the subregion.
Those who are NEET have fallen by 8.8% from 570 in March 2011 to 520 in
March 2012. The monthly change show a 2.6% decrease.
2010 Adult working age qualifications
Blackburn with Darwen NEETs
2010-12
100.0
800
70.0
700
60.0
600
50.0
500
40.0
30.0
23.6
31.3
28.7
400
300
200
0.0
100
Over time this proportion has been increasing such that between December
2004 and December 2010 the proportion of working age adults qualified to
NVQ level 4+ has increased by 5% points.
Mar-12
Jan-12
Feb-12
Nov-11
Dec-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
May-11
Jun-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
Source: ONS Annual population survey via Nomis
0
Jan-11
Feb-11
Great Britain
Nov-10
Dec-10
North West
Sep-10
Oct-10
Blackburn with Darwen
Apr-10
10.0
51.0
49.6
43.1
20.0
67.3
66.8
59.6
Jul-10
Aug-10
80.0
May-10
Jun-10
90.0
% with NVQ4+
% with NVQ3+
% with NVQ2+
Source: CXL MI Team
9
Jobs: Demand side
Notified vacancies
1,250
1,000
750
500
250
2007-2011
2,000
1,750

1,250
1,000
750
500
250
Apr-07
Jun-07
Aug-07
Oct-07
Dec-07
Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
0
Dec-11
Aug-11
Apr-11
Dec-10
Aug-10
Source: Job Centre Plus via NOMIS

1,500
Apr-10
Jobcentre Plus Notified Job Vacanies in Blackburn with Darwen
Dec-09
0
Aug-09

1,500
Apr-09

1,750
Dec-08

Live unfilled vacancies in Blackburn with Darwen
2007-2011
Aug-08
In September 2011, 962 job vacancies were advertised with
Blackburn with Darwen Jobcentre Plus offices, down from 1,094
in June 2011, a decrease of 12.1%. the data shows a decrease of
3.2% over the last month and 15.7% over the year.
Vacancy notifications are down 3.2% over the last month and
15.7% over the year.
Top three occupations (increases)for notified vacancies were:
o
Personal service occupations
o
Professional occupations
o
Manager and senior officials
Top three occupations for decreases:
o Skilled Trades
o Elementary occupations
o Sales and Customers service
Unfilled vacancy numbers are indicative of job availability
Apr-08

Live unfilled vacancies
Dec-07
Newly notified vacancies measure the extent to which vacancies are
being created by the local economy or at least notified to Jobcentre Plus.
In December 2011, there were 762 unfilled job centre
vacancies, up by 303 the previous year.
The number of unfilled vacancies available through
Jobcentre Plus decreased by 13% on the previous month.
Claimants per Jobcentre Plus vacancy
Data on the number of claimants per live unfilled vacancy provides a
further, if rough measure of the level of competition for jobs or the
difficulty that people will have getting back into work. In September 2011
there were 5.9 claimants per unfilled vacancy in Blackburn with Darwen,
up from 5.6 in August 2011. Figures have varied on a monthly basis
increasing to a high of 7.8 claimants per unfilled vacancy, this has recently
fallen to 7.3 in February and to 5.9 in March 2012.
Source: JCP vacancy data via NOMIS
10
Business
Business births and deaths
Blackburn with Darwen
Business births & deaths
700
Births
Deaths
Net gain/loss
600
500
400
N
Personal insolvencies, debt orders and Individual Voluntary
Arrangements (IVAs)
Data on personal insolvencies from the ONS show that more people have
been declared insolvent over the past year in Blackburn with Darwen.
Personal insolvencies rose to 388 in 2009, an increase of a third on 2008
levels. Over time debt orders and IVAs have also increased.
There has also been an increase in the number setting up informal
arrangements with creditors – such as debt management plans. IVAs have
increased by nearly a half over the last year from 84 in 2008 to 124 in
2009.
300
200
100
0
-100
Personal Insolvancies and debt orders
-200
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Business demography (ONS)






Blackburn with Darwen contained more than 4,365 active
businesses. A quarter of the Pennine Lancashire total.
Over time business births have exceeded business deaths in
Blackburn with Darwen, the exception being in 2009 and
2010 when deaths exceeded births resulting in a net loss of
40 and 140 businesses respectively.
There was a net loss of 470 businesses in Pennine Lancashire
with the largest losses registered in the Blackburn with
Darwen and Burnley.
Blackburn with Darwen’s share of Pennine Lancashire
business deaths was 27.8%.
Business births as a percentage of active businesses have
decreased by 4.2% points from 14.4% in 2004 to 10.2% in 2009
Business deaths as a percentage of active businesses have
increased by 1 percentage points from 12.4% in 2004 to 13.4%
in 2009
45
40
35
in Blackburn with Darwen 2000-2009
Personal insolvancies
Bankruptcy orders
IVA's
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Rates per 10,000
Source: Neighbourhood statistics (ONS)
11
Employment by sector
The table below shows the new SIC 2007 codes breakdown of employment
for Blackburn with Darwen. Health and Manufacturing represents the
largest sectors for employment with 18.3% and 17.0%. Between 2008-and
2010 the proportion of total employment accounted for by manufacturing
has fallen from 19.7% to 18.3% to 17.0%, a fall of 1.4% point on average
while that for health has increased by 3% points between 2008 and 2009
but by 0.6% points between 2009 and 2010 The proportion of jobs
accounted for business administration and support services has fallen from
7.4% to 4.0%, a reduction of 3.5% points over the two years.
Sector
2008
2009
0.7%
2010
0.9%
% point
change
2009-2010
0.2%
Over the year employment levels in nine sectors fell, the largest reduction
being in property, as indicated earlier the share of total employment
accounted for by this sector fell by 0.3% points from 1.2% to 0.9%. The
percentage change over the year saw a reduction of over a quarter in
employment levels from 700 to 500. Business administration and support
services experienced employment levels fall by 15% and public
administration and defence employment shed one in eight jobs.
Total Employment by sector
Manufacturing
19.7%
18.3%
17.0%
-1.3%
Construction
3.5%
3.0%
3.0%
0.0%
Business administration & support services
Motor trades
1.3%
1.5%
1.9%
0.4%
Professional, scientific & technical
Property
4.7%
4.5%
-0.1%
Retail
9.0%
8.8%
9.2%
0.4%
Transport & storage (inc postal)
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
0.0%
Accommodation & food services
Accommodation & food services
3.5%
3.5%
3.8%
0.3%
Transport & storage (inc postal)
Information & communication
3.4%
3.3%
3.5%
0.1%
Retail
Wholesale
1.3%
1.5%
1.6%
0.1%
Property
Professional, scientific &
technical
Business administration & support
services
1.0%
1.2%
0.9%
-0.3%
4.5%
6.0%
6.4%
0.4%
7.4%
4.5%
4.0%
-0.5%
Public administration & defence
5.8%
5.5%
5.0%
-0.5%
Education
9.6%
10.0%
10.4%
0.4%
Health
14.7%
17.7%
18.3%
0.6%
Arts entertainment
5.6%
6.3%
6.3%
-0.1%
100.0%
60,000
57,500
-4.0%
0.0%
2900
Public administration & defence
5.4%
-0.9%
6000
Education
Wholesale
Total
10500
Health
0.6%
Financial & insurance
-5.3%
3600
Arts entertainment
Agriculture mining etc
% change 2009 to 2010
2009
2010
-12.1%
2300
-14.8%
2.8%
3700
500
-28.6%
900
Financial & insurance
0.0%
2000
Information & communication
0.0%
2200
4.8%
2000
-4.8%
5300
0.0%
2600
-7.1%
1100
Motor trades
22.2%
1700
Construction
-5.6%
9800
Manufacturing
500
Agriculture mining etc
0
-10.9%
25.0%
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
Source: Business Register & Employment Survey/ABI via NOMIS
Source: Business Register & Employment Survey/ABI via NOMIS
12
Earnings
Wages and salaries are the major components of household income.
Therefore analysis of the current changes in wages and salaries plays an
important part in understanding changes in total household income.
Percentage change in gross weekly earnings of
employees, annual percentage change
6.0%
Data from ASHE provides information on earnings at Local Authority level,
the figures shows median gross weekly earnings for all full time resident
employees in Blackburn with Darwen from 2002 to 2010
4.0%
4.1%4.3%
2.0%
% change
Gross weekly pay - All full time workers
600
500
3.2%
1.9%2.2%
2.1%2.4%2.3%
2009
2010
0.3%
0.0%
2008
-2.0%
2011
-2.3%
400
-2.4%
-4.0%
£ 300
-6.0%
200
Blackburn with Darwen
North West
Great Britain
100
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0
Blackburn with Darwen
North West
Great Britain
-5.8%
-8.0%
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and earnings (ASHE) via NOMIS
Resident and workplace based earnings:
Median Gross Weekly Earnings by Place of Residence and Place of Work, April 2010
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and earnings (ASHE) via NOMIS



Median weekly earnings for full-time residents in Blackburn with
Darwen (£412.8) were £90.3 or 17.9% lower than the national
average of £503.1 and 10.3% (£47.2) lower than the North West
average.
Gross average weekly earnings for Blackburn with Darwen
residents decreased by £25.40 or 5.8% on 2010 levels, BwD is only
Pennine Lancashire district to experience a decrease in resident
earnings.
Male resident based earnings decreased by 9.7% and that for
females by 19.3%, overall resident based earnings decreased by
5.8% and workplace earnings increased by 0.5%. (See table
opposite)
Full-time males
Part-time males
All males
Residence -based Workplace-based
Weekly % change Weekly % change
pay (£) 2010-2011 pay (£) 2010-2011
-9.7%
1.8%
421.6
458.9
5.9%
150.6
185.8
-2.0%
2.5%
388.2
417.5
% Resident/
Workplace
-8.1%
-18.9%
-7.0%
Full-time females
Part-time females
All females
339.5
167.7
277.9
-19.3%
5.5%
-1.3%
400.9
153.6
328.9
-9.2%
-1.4%
-15.3%
9.2%
-15.5%
All full-time employees
412.8
-5.8%
446.2
0.5%
-7.5%
Figures are for all employees on adult rates of pay not affected by absence.
Source ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
13
Housing market

From January 2002, average house prices in Blackburn with
Darwen increased consistently in line with national trends from
£40,000 to almost £100,000 in June 2008.
The average house price in August 2011 is £74,337 up 0.5% from
the previous month but down by 10.4% from the August 2010 level
of £82,924.
The graphs suggests an inverse relationship between house prices
and sales volume such that at times when house prices were low
sales volume was high the opposite is now true.

House sales and volumes
120,000
450
Blackburn with Darwen
Average price (£)
350
80,000
300
250
60,000
200
40,000
150
Average price £
Sales Volume
50
Feb-12
Feb-11
Feb-10
Feb-09
Feb-08
Feb-07
Feb-06
Feb-05
Feb-04
Feb-03
Feb-02
Feb-01
Feb-00
Feb-99
Feb-98
Feb-97
0
Feb-96
0
Feb-95
SemiDetached
Terraced
Maisonette/Flat
All
Feb-12
170,975
95,251
49,729
51,578
77,978

House sales were 25% lower in December 2011 compared with
December 2010
Mortgage repossession
It is typical for the number of residential mortgage possession actions to
increase during a recession as unemployment rises and monthly payments
become harder to meet.
Court actions for mortgage possession
3.50
100
20,000
Detached
400
100,000
Sales volume

Month
Blackburn with Darwen UA
North West
England and Wales
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Month
Index
Feb-2012
158.4

Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Source: HM Land registry
Average
price (£)
77,978
Monthly
change %
0.7%
Annual
change %
-4.4%
Sales
volume
-
Average house prices locally have been consistently lower than
the North West and Lancashire averages. The average house
price in Blackburn with Darwen is 30% lower than the North West
average.
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Ministry of justice


The quarterly rate 1.30 (per thousand households) for Blackburn
with Darwen is higher than the regional 1.0 and national rate
0.8.
There have been a total of 70 court actions on mortgage arrears
in Blackburn with Darwen for quarter 4 and 275 in total for the
year. Quarter four shows 7% decrease on the same quarter of the
previous year, while the yearly decrease in repossessions is down
by 5.2%
14
negative impact on healthy eating but may help with smoking cessation 2.
There is further limited evidence to suggest adverse impacts on mental
health3.
Landlord repossession
Court actions for mortgage possession - Landlords
4.50
4.00
Information on heath conditions suffered by out of work benefit claimants
are available from the Incapacity Benefit/Severe Disablement Allowance
(IB/SDA) and Employment Support Allowance (ESA) claimant data.
Blackburn with Darwen UA
North West
England and Wales
3.50
3.00
From 31st January 2011 people were no-longer able to make new IB claims
as ESA was introduced. SDA was withdrawn to new claimants in April 2001.
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0.00
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Ministry of justice


There have been a total of 95 court actions on mortgage arrears
for landlords in Blackburn with Darwen, no change on the same
quarter of the previous year.
The quarterly court actions figures show Blackburn with
Darwen’s court actions for mortgage possession of 1.76 (per
thousand households) to be on a higher than the regional (1.44)
and national trends and national rate (1.5).
Of the 6,390 IB/SDA claimants in the borough at November 2011, almost
half (48.7%) were claiming because of mental and behavioural disorders. A
greater proportion than the England average (44.1%). Diseases of the
musculoskeletal system and connective tissue formed the second greatest
proportion of claimants (16.7%) and symptoms not elsewhere classified he
third largest group (9.9%). The latter categories were on a par with the
national averages 16.7% and 11.3% respectively.
Of the 3,570 ESA claimants in the borough in November 2011, mental and
behavioural disorders again comprises the greatest proportion (44.8%)
compared to 41.4% in England. As with the figures for IB/SDA, diseases of
the musculoskeletal system was again the second categories.- (Blackburn
with Darwen 14.8% compared to 14.6% England).
Health
There is no evidence to suggest specific impacts of the recession on health
and ill-health locally. Research evidence indicates that there is a strong
link between long term impacts of economic cycles and mortality rates
resulting from a widening social divide1. General research indicates
2
1
Colledge M, Economic cycles and health. Towards a sociological understanding of
the impact of the recession on health and illness, 1982
European Public Health Alliance, Recession affects healthy eating options,
http://www.epha.org/a/3468, 2009
3 Nursing Times.net, Public health in a recession, November 2008
15
Recorded crime
Recorded crime is taken from CORA (available via the MADE
database). Cora is a monthly snapshot of data downloaded on the 1 st
of the month and isn't refreshed with audited data.
Recorded crime in Blackburn with Darwen
All crime 2008-11
1400

1200
1000
800

600
400

200
0
Apr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12


The broad trend for crime has been downward, decreasing
from 1,248 in April 2008 to 753 in December 2010. Since
December 2010 all crime has increased reaching a peak of
1076 in July 2011, since then the trend has been downwards.
There are on average of 38.4 burglaries per month, (over the
last 12 months). Burglaries have increased by over a 3.1% over
the year and by 26.9% over the month.
Auto crime – month on month variation, interspersed with
decreases followed by sharp increases, 76% annual increase
Criminal damage – overall downward trend, sharp increase
between July 2011-October 2011.
Violent crime – shows month on month variation, overall
shows a shallow downward trend, 13.9% annual decrease and
4.4% monthly decrease.
Source: Multi Agency Data Exchange -MADE
Recorded crime in Blackburn with Darwen
Recorded crime in Blackburn with Darwen
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Apr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
0
Auto crime 2008-11
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Annual change
-13.9%
Monthly change
-4.4%
Average =219.8 per month
Recorded crime in Blackburn with Darwen
400
Recorded crime in Blackburn with Darwen
Criminal damage 2008-11
350
350
Violent crime 2008-11
300
300
250
250
200
200
Apr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Burglary dwelling 2008-11
Annual change
+2.0%
Monthly change
-14.8%
Average =195.6 per month
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
Apr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Annual change
+76.0%
Monthly change
-19.3%
Average =96.3 per month
Apr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Annual change
+3.1
Monthly change
+26.9%
Average =37.5 per month
16