FINAL REPORT
IH-635 Managed Lanes
Traffic and Toll Revenue
Investment Grade Study
Independent Economic Overview
and Development Updates
April 2004
Prepared for:
Wilbur Smith & Associates
900 Chapel Street, Suite 1400
New Haven, CT 06510-2802
Prepared by:
Insight Research Corporation
9441 LBJ Freeway, Lock Box 20
Dallas, TX 75243
(972) 238-8838
IH-635 Managed Lanes
Traffic and Toll Revenue
Investment Grade Study
Independent Economic Overview
and Development Updates
1.
PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The engineering firm of Wilbur Smith Associates (WSA) was retained by the
Texas Department of Transportation (TXDOT) to prepare an Investment Grade
Traffic and Toll Revenue study in support of financing strategies for the proposed
managed lanes on IH-635, also known as Lyndon Baines Johnson Freeway
(LBJ), through northern Dallas County, Texas. Insight Research Corporation
(Insight), an applied economics research firm specializing in transportation
economics, was engaged by WSA in November of 2003 to prepare an
independent cross check on existing population and employment forecasts by
traffic survey zone (TSZ).
Insight was to review selected population and employment projections, by traffic
survey zone (TSZ) for a defined study area, which are now being used by the
North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG), the region's
designated Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) for the Dallas-Fort Worth
Metropolitan Region.
Copyright 2004. Insight Research Corporation, 9441 LBJ Fwy, Lock Box 20, Dallas Texas 75243 (972)238-8838
1
2.
DEFINITION OF THE STUDY AREA
The study area as defined by WSA was composed of a ten-mile wide corridor
along existing LBJ, with the west boundary beginning at of the center line of DFW
International Airport's north-south spine road and continuing along existing LBJ a
distance of approximately 29 miles, and having as its east boundary a line just
east of the Dallas County line, as shown. The study area encompassed a
geographic area of approximately 302 square miles and was entirely located
within the northern half of Dallas County.
Included in the designated study area are all or portions of the following cities
and towns, cited east to west: Coppell, Irving, Carrollton, Farmers Branch (all),
Dallas, Addison (all), Richardson, Buckingham (all), Garland, Mesquite and
Sunnyvale, as depicted below:
Figure 1: The LBJ Study Area
Copyright 2004. Insight Research Corporation, 9441 LBJ Fwy, Lock Box 20, Dallas Texas 75243 (972)238-8838
2
3.
METHODOLOGIES
As in other parts of the country, investment grade traffic forecasts such as this
report are prepared to provide an independent examination of the assumptions
on which forecast trends are based, offering a cross check on local forecasting
methodologies and strengthening the engineering expectations of traffic volumes.
NCTCOG uses a continuous cycle of research and local review to forecast
population and employment growth, to update anticipated land uses and to
monitor the final scope of actual projects. These forecasts allow updates to be
integrated regularly into both the district and TSZ allocations, with major
benchmarks forecast at five-year intervals. The current NCTCOG methodology,
which incorporates low, mid and high expectation alternatives, is augmented by
other regional forecasts to compare expectations of growth under different
predictive methodologies, including that of the Perryman Group and the Texas
Workforce Commission.
However, because of the time frame of the process, local economic information
of significant scope can change at a more rapid pace than the current process of
input and review can capture. NCTCOG’s descriptive process of its 2030
Forecast Methodology is included as Appendix A. The following steps were
taken by Insight Research Corporation to provide an independent review of
NCTCOG population and employment forecasts, as described below.

Establishing Factors Driving Potential Population or Employment
Variance: Insight identified newly active and announced commercial
projects, residential developments and employers by TSZ along the
designated LBJ study area that could affect population or employment
assumptions -- either positively or negatively -- thus potentially affecting
projections of future traffic volumes, and ultimately, the revenue forecasts
underlying the financing options.
The categories of activity for inclusion were defined as any development,
project, employer or regional activity that might:
A. Vary in size or timing from the TSZ-level assumptions of underlying
area development currently in use by NCTCOG,
B. Contribute to either a gain or loss from the NCTCOG base
employment data, or
C. Affect the assumptions in current use (December 2003) by NCTCOG
in any other statistically significant way.
Copyright 2004. Insight Research Corporation, 9441 LBJ Fwy, Lock Box 20, Dallas Texas 75243 (972)238-8838
3

Obtaining and Reviewing NCTCOG Base Data: Insight obtained NCTCOG
population and employment forecast data for the study area in required fiveyear increments by TSZ along with accompanying maps outlining each of the
978 TSZs in the defined area. A list of key contacts in the affected
jurisdictions was compiled and contacted by telephone, e-mail, facsimile
and/or in person to acquaint them with the needed information and solicit
their cooperation for project details.

Preparing the Project List: Study area cities reviewed their most recent
reports to NCTCOG on TSZ-level development information and provided
updates on only those additional residential or commercial projects that had
changed or become formalized since the last report to NCTCOG, including
those which had:
A. Broken ground,
B. Taken occupancy,
C. Made credible and probable development announcements -- either
publicly or confidentially -- which could be attributed to a TSZ,
including project size and/or timing forecast, or
D. Changed in scope or size from information previously provided to
NCTCOG.

Conducting Interviews: Insight interviewed and discussed the development
patterns and trends being experienced with city planners, city management
officials, economic development officials, building permit officials, real estate
development and other professionals, and used project announcements and
other local news sources to augment the assumptions in use by the
NCTCOG. A list of projects found and persons interviewed or consulted is
part of the bibliography of this report as Appendix B, as are electronic files,
transmitted under separate cover, that update the NCTCOG TSZ forecast
data in final format.

Calculating Population and Employment Gains and Losses: The list of
projects was expanded and cross-checked for the correct TSZ or TSZs of the
project's location. The preliminary list of projects identified was submitted to
NCTCOG, including development type; acreage; number and type of dwelling
units; population if applicable; employment if applicable classified as basic,
service or retail; and estimates of square footage expected to be added by
five year increments in the format prescribed by NCTCOG. The NCTCOG
reviewed the project changes and identified duplicate information, and any
duplicates were eliminated.
Copyright 2004. Insight Research Corporation, 9441 LBJ Fwy, Lock Box 20, Dallas Texas 75243 (972)238-8838
4
In some instances, duplicate projects that had previously been reported to
NCTCOG were revised, using the best data as determined by additional
research. Where discrepancies existed in TSZ locations of the new or
updated information, all discrepancies were resolved.

Defining Other Corridor Influences: Some major projects were profiled
and referenced in this text which either:
A. Are located just outside the study area, or
B. Are not yet committed to specific study area TSZs.
These projects, due to their size and traffic volume potential, add to an
understanding of the development dynamics of the study areas and could
also affect the traffic volume estimates. However, only those new and
revised projects that were located within the boundaries of the defined study
area were included for updating population and employment counts.
Population or employment losses were also calculated which might have
been or which could be affected by economic downturns affecting specific
employers. These forecasts also include employers who had closed or
relocated, such as moves triggered by highway right-of-way requirements.

Preparing Indirect Employment Calculations: Once additional direct -- or
site specific -- employment was confirmed, indirect employment was
calculated using U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Regional InputOutput Multipliers, Series II (RIMS II) computed by the BEA for North Dallas
County. This indirect employment was allocated along predetermined
geographic areas using a proportional share of indirect job creation classified
as basic, service or retail. This indirect employment was added to the counts
for additional employment by five-year increment.
No indirect population or employment was attributed to the study area
associated with residential development because:
(a) The multipliers associated with such development are very small,
(b) The corridor is largely built-out, and
(c) The corridor is heavily commercial in character.
Copyright 2004. Insight Research Corporation, 9441 LBJ Fwy, Lock Box 20, Dallas Texas 75243 (972)238-8838
5

Calculating High and Low Forecast Alternatives: In order to bracket the risk
inherent in any forecast, the Dallas PMSA population and employment growth
trends and economic cycles were studied and forecast through 2030. Historic
regional business cycle information was compared to that of the State of Texas
and the United States to confirm regionally affected high and low cycle swings as
a percentage delta from the average. Further definition of these business cycles
is detailed and illustrated Section 4 of this report.
Within the limitations of the required five-year reporting intervals, the probable
trend was calculated to incorporate expected fluctuations in population and
employment forecasts. The high and low percentage delta defined the resulting
variance possibilities, thus bracketing the probable forecast scenario with an
economy-driven level of risk. The probable case, along with both high and low
projections, was then provided to WSA in table formats for use in refining traffic
forecasts and revenue projections.
An additional calculation of new employment was also developed using a ratio of
PMSA population to PMSA jobs of 1.614 using the last ten years of reported
population and employment, or one job for every 1.614 persons added to the
PMSA demographic base. These calculations are provided as Appendix C.
Copyright 2004. Insight Research Corporation, 9441 LBJ Fwy, Lock Box 20, Dallas Texas 75243 (972)238-8838
6
4.
DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC BACKGROUND – DALLAS PRIMARY
METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA (PMSA)
The Dallas PMSA is a dynamic, rapidly growing economic region of the United
States and of Texas, encompassing a diverse employment base and
experiencing strong growth in both population and employment.
The map below illustrates the rapid growth of the area, as depicted by those
areas for which public utility service was available. In 1970, an area of
approximately 1152 square miles in Dallas, Tarrant, Denton and Collin counties
was served by public utilities. By 1990, that service area had grown to 1,845
square miles. By 2010, it is forecast that the service area will have grown to
2670 square miles.
Areas of Public Utility Service
At Twenty Year Intervals
Dallas-Fort Worth
Population Growth Areas
Aqua
Yellow
White
1970
1990
2010
Figure 2: Public Utility Service Availability
Copyright 2004. Insight Research Corporation, 9441 LBJ Fwy, Lock Box 20, Dallas Texas 75243 (972)238-8838
7
From 1960 to 2000, the Dallas PMSA population increased by 198%, an annual
average of 5.08%. Likewise, the number of employed persons increased by
535% from 1960 to 2000, an annual average of 13.73%.
Dallas PMSA
Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Henderson, Hunt,
Kaufman and Rockwall Counties
Historic Population 1960 - 2000
Millions
4
3,519,176

3,045,449
3

2,676,248
2,432,841
2,055,232
1,815,400
2
1,630,364
1,405,480
1,180,595

1






0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Texas A&M Real Estate Center
Figure 3: Dallas PMSA Historic Population from 1960 to 2000
Dallas PMSA
Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Henderson, Hunt,
Kaufman and Rockwall Counties
Employed Persons 1960 - 2000
2.5
Millions
1, 987,700
2
1,597,000
1, 420,900
1,309,400
1.5
1,026,400
788,651
1
550,901
431,887
0.5
312,872









0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Figure 4: Dallas PMSA Employed Persons from 1960 to 2000
Copyright 2004. Insight Research Corporation, 9441 LBJ Fwy, Lock Box 20, Dallas Texas 75243 (972)238-8838
8
DALLAS PRIMARY METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA (PMSA) OVERVIEW
The following table uses the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment
classification, the North American Industrial Classification Standards (NAICS), to
indicate the segmentation of Dallas PMSA employment sectors and the relative size of
the wage and salary employment reported by Dallas PMSA employers in each of the last
fourteen years.
Dallas PMSA Non-Agricultural Wage and Salary Employment
United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, NAICS
1990-2003
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
20
03
2
20
0
20
01
20
00
19
99
8
19
9
19
97
19
96
19
95
4
19
9
19
93
19
92
19
91
19
9
0
0
Natural Resources & Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trans,
Public Util
Financial Activities
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Information
Professional & Bus Services
Edu & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Figure 5: Dallas PMSA
Non-Agricultural Wage and Salary Employment
NAICS 1990 – 2003
Copyright 2004. Insight Research Corporation, 9441 LBJ Fwy, Lock Box 20, Dallas Texas 75243 (972)238-8838
9
Other
Services
Government
Total
Edu & Health
Services
Professional
& Bus
Services
274,500 63,800 132,200 157,700 117,000
271,400 63,800 131,300 156,600 123,100
269,800 61,700 128,600 160,600 130,200
275,700 63,300 132,000 171,000 132,500
283,600 67,300 136,300 187,400 135,800
293,000 75,000 136,600 200,400 143,600
302,000 80,500 138,800 222,400 150,100
312,000 90,100 148,700 243,800 159,100
326,100 94,700 160,900 263,400 162,100
340,000 97,600 165,300 281,600 163,900
355,200 102,900 165,200 300,500 167,900
359,300 100,500 166,800 293,900 174,900
349,100 89,400 168,000 275,600 182,000
344,700 83,000 167,200 272,700 187,300
DALLAS
Leisure &
Hospitality
47,100
49,300
50,400
51,400
54,500
57,300
59,600
62,900
67,300
70,100
73,600
75,000
73,700
72,200
Financial
Activities
224,500
214,200
210,400
213,700
217,100
223,200
227,700
236,700
244,800
243,500
244,600
233,000
213,000
205,200
Information
50,000
49,300
50,800
55,300
61,500
68,300
75,300
83,100
90,600
100,200
110,100
111,800
103,400
100,700
Wholesale &
Retail Trade
Manufacturin
g
16,900
17,300
16,700
16,200
14,700
13,100
12,600
12,300
11,600
9,900
8,800
8,800
9,100
8,600
Trans,
Public Util
Construction
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Natural
Resources &
Mining
DALLAS PMSA NON-AGRICULTURAL WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT
UNITED STATES BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
1990 - 2003
115,800
117,500
116,700
123,100
128,700
135,000
140,300
147,600
151,500
159,300
166,500
171,000
169,000
166,900
53,300
54,200
55,200
56,400
58,200
60,500
62,500
64,300
65,800
68,200
71,100
72,400
71,700
71,200
167,800
173,200
177,500
182,400
187,400
191,000
191,400
196,400
202,200
209,500
216,700
221,700
230,300
238,100
1,420,600
1,421,200
1,428,600
1,473,000
1,532,500
1,597,000
1,663,200
1,757,000
1,841,000
1,909,100
1,983,100
1,989,100
1,934,300
1,917,800
Source: U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Table 1: Dallas PMSA Non-Agricultural
Wage and Salary Employment 1990 to 2003
Copyright 2004. Insight Research Corporation, 9441 LBJ Fwy, Lock Box 20, Dallas Texas 75243 (972)238-8838
10
United States Bureau of Labor Statistics Dallas PMSA 2003 NAICS
Total Non-Agricultural Wage and Salary Employment
Natural Resources
& Mining
8,600, .4%
Government
202,400, 11%
Construction
100,700, 5%
Manufacturing
205,200, 11%
Other Services
71,200, 4%
Trans,
Public Util
72,200, 4%
Leisure &
Hospitality
166,900, 9%
Information
83,000, 4%
Edu & Health
Services 187,300,
10%
Trade
344,700, 19%
Professional & Bus
Services 272,700,
14%
Financial Activities
167,200, 9%
Figure 6: Dallas PMSA 2003 NAICS Total Non-Agricultural
Wage and Salary Employment, Percentage by NAICS
The diverse characteristics of the Dallas PMSA are illustrated in the pie chart above,
demonstrating the labor force position of the Dallas PMSA as the fourth largest
wholesale and retail marketplace in the United States, behind New York, Los Angeles
and Chicago respectively, with 19% of the PMSA’s employment. Business and
Professional Services, Manufacturing, Government, Education and Health Services, and
Leisure and Hospitality also play a significant role in the diversity of the regional
economy, which becomes important in examining the region’s reaction to economic
cycle changes.
Copyright 2004. Insight Research Corporation, 9441 LBJ Fwy, Lock Box 20, Dallas Texas 75243 (972)238-8838
11
HISTORIC REGIONAL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND FORECAST
The following graphic in Figure 7 illustrates a simple but powerful method of examining
economic cycles in the United States. Beginning in 1919, when the BLS began keeping
employment data by market segment, the chart illustrates the annual percent of change
in total employment from the previous year, shown in blue, as compared to the annual
percent of change in construction employment, shown in red. Each year that the line is
above zero indicates that employment increased by that percentage over the preceding
year. Likewise, a mark below zero indicates that year’s percent of loss against the
preceding year, while a posting at zero would mean no change in total jobs from the
previous year.
While total employment reflects overall activity in the country, construction employment
is particularly useful to track because it represents from three to eight percent of total
employment in typical Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and in the country as a
whole. Construction employment is the most sensitive to the availability of capital for
expenditure in improvements, both public and private. In the following chart, Figure 9,
construction employment acts as the tip of a “whip of change” as the whip is snapped
and construction projects are released or slowed.
Three areas of particular volatility or unpredictable from the expected norm are shown in
the following graphic, including the Great Depression in the United States from 1929 to
1933, World War II from 1941 to 1945, and the most recent “dot.com bubble” from 1995
through 2001. In each of these periods the market moved in an aberrant manner,
reflecting the availability of capital formation for new public and private investment.
In addition, the graphic illustrates the high point and low point of each cycle with
corresponding arrows. Through 1948, extreme swings in both construction employment
and total employment were experienced, as the illustration shows. However, since
1953, cycles in the economy have become much less erratic due to improved federal
regulations, money management and the relative stability of the world economy. From
1953 forward, economic cycles at intervals of approximately six to eight years are
apparent in the data, allowing a predictive mechanism to be employed in estimating
capital formation in the future.
In the absence of a catastrophic economic event, it can be predicted that approximately
every six to eight years the U.S. economy will experience a cycle of over-building
followed by under-building, over-supply followed by under-supply, and available capital
followed by restricted capital.
Copyright 2004. Insight Research Corporation, 9441 LBJ Fwy, Lock Box 20, Dallas Texas 75243 (972)238-8838
12
0.2
High Cycle Points
1995 to 2001
0.4
Depression 1929 to 1933
United States
Economic Cycles Investment 1919 - 2012
Low Cycle Points
“.com Bubble”
-0.2
WW II 1941 to 1945
0
19
19
19
22
19
25
19
28
19
31
19
34
19
37
19
40
19
43
19
46
19
49
19
52
19
55
19
58
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
20
12
-0.4
US Employment
US Construction Employment
Figure 7: United States Economic Cycles of
Capital Investment from 1919 to 2012
These economic cycles are documented at the regional level with equal clarity in most
metropolitan statistical areas, certainly that of the Dallas PMSA, the State of Texas as
well as that of the largest PMSA, Houston, as discussed in the next section.
Copyright 2004. Insight Research Corporation, 9441 LBJ Fwy, Lock Box 20, Dallas Texas 75243 (972)238-8838
13
LOCAL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND FORECAST
While the economy of the State of Texas is frequently examined as a single unit, marked
regional differences exist among metro areas within the State.
The historic
characteristics which have affected the Dallas PMSA are distinct from those affecting the
economy of the other major PMSA in Texas, the Houston PMSA. As shown in the
following chart, the Houston economy was clearly countercyclical to that of the U.S. prior
to 1994. This countercyclical nature of the economies of the Houston PMSA (extending
to the Houston-Galveston CMSA), largely driven by oil production, transportation and
refining, provided significant benefits to the State of Texas as a whole, and a growing
regional marketplace for capital investment when the balance of the nation was in
recession.
In the 1980’s however, Texas -- like much of the rest of the U.S. -- underwent dramatic
change. The financial industry was deregulated in the early 1980’s, and loopholes in the
regulations allowed abuses in lending practices. The necessary resolution of those
abuses followed through the early 1990’s. These changes resulted in a prolonged and
deep recession in a number of fast-growing regional economies, including virtually all of
the State of Texas.
Dallas and Houston PMSAs to US
Economic Cycles of Capital Investment
25
Annual % of Change
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
US
98
19
Dallas
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
Houston
Figure 8: Comparison of Dallas PMSA, Houston PMSA and the United States
Economic Cycles of Capital Investment
Copyright 2004. Insight Research Corporation, 9441 LBJ Fwy, Lock Box 20, Dallas Texas 75243 (972)238-8838
14
As depicted in Figure 8, the cycles of capital investment in Texas were forced into a
prolonged decline from 1987 through 1992. Most of the regional financial institutions
previously based in the State were purchased, and many financial headquarters moved
out of the State, changing the source and implementation of the market data on which
capital investment decisions were made.
At the close of those years of financial restructuring in the U.S., the countercyclical
nature of the Houston PMSA’s economy was fundamentally changed, as was that of the
Dallas PMSA, and the Texas economy also was forced into business cycles that more
clearly paralleled that of the U.S.
This change in the State’s economy is a liability for Texas businesses and industries,
forcing them to compete for capital funding with all other U.S. businesses in the general
periods of economic growth in the U.S., as opposed to having the favored position of
being a safe haven for capital investments in a countercyclical business climate.
Copyright 2004. Insight Research Corporation, 9441 LBJ Fwy, Lock Box 20, Dallas Texas 75243 (972)238-8838
15
Dallas PMSA
Economic Cycles of Capital Investment
Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Henderson,
Hunt, Kaufman and Rockwall Counties
20.00
Annual % of Change
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
-5.00
-10.00
-15.00
-20.00
Total Employment
20
30
20
25
20
20
20
15
20
10
20
05
20
00
19
95
19
90
19
85
19
80
-25.00
Construction
Figure 9: Dallas PMSA Economic Cycles of Capital Investment
The expectations of growth cycles for the Dallas PMSA can be forecast, as shown in
Figure 9, with dynamic changes occurring about every six to eight years. Continued inmigration to the State and to the Dallas PMSA are reflected in strong increases in annual
job growth, followed by pauses in growth during the downturns. The need for added
business space and residential housing, accompanied by capital commitments to
needed infrastructure, will continue to create well defined cycles of construction
employment. The performance of the commercial construction and occupancy market in
the Dallas PMSA reflects these economic cycles and is provided in Appendix D.
Copyright 2004. Insight Research Corporation, 9441 LBJ Fwy, Lock Box 20, Dallas Texas 75243 (972)238-8838
16
5.
DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS ON THE LBJ CORRIDOR
For purposes of examining the current development status, the corridor is divided
into three segments, West, Central and East, with highlights of major
development patterns for each described separately in the subsections which
follow. Approximately 70% of the LBJ Corridor study area is committed to
completed land use, with undeveloped property existing primarily on the east and
west portions of the corridor.
West LBJ Corridor (DFW Airport to IH-35E): Beginning just east of the spine
road of DFW International Airport and continuing to the IH-35E interchange, land
use along both north and south sides of LBJ is mostly new and attractive
industrial and commercial growth which has developed in the past 5 to 15 years.
The West LBJ Corridor includes major office users Microsoft and Xerox in Irving
and IBM in Coppell, plus corporate headquarters of non-profit facilities such as
Boy Scouts of America, along with new high density housing, retail and hotel
facilities. Significant manufacturing and industrial activity is also taking place in
the area with the presence of Abbott Laboratories, NEC and other large
manufacturers.
Figure 10: West LBJ Corridor
Copyright 2004. Insight Research Corporation, 9441 LBJ Fwy, Lock Box 20, Dallas Texas 75243 (972)238-8838
17
The newly opened President George Bush Turnpike’s western extension,
merging with SH-161, is a rapidly developing new corridor for high-finish office
and office-industrial users including telecommunications companies Verizon,
Nokia and Aegis Communications.
Significant retail and residential growth has occurred north and south from LBJ
along McArthur Road, in close proximity to major housing development in both
Valley Ranch and Las Colinas. The well established Valley Ranch mixed-use
development hosts the practice facilities for the Dallas Cowboys football team.
High-end office development continues with high-rise office buildings in the
vicinity of Las Colinas in Irving, just to the south of LBJ within the West LBJ
Corridor Study Area. A new office park is planned in Coppell as well, with its
component parts described in Appendix E.
Along this portion of the corridor, substantial property for industrial, office tech,
office development, retail and residential mixed use still exists. Several industrial
parks, notably Freeport to the south along Freeport Parkway, and industrial park
commitments on the north side of the corridor in the City of Coppell continue to
attract specialized industrial, manufacturing and distribution developments.
At Luna Road, office-tech-flex and showroom uses continue to demonstrate a
strong market draw. The Valley View industrial park, located on the northwest
corner of IH-35 and LBJ, also houses a large number of manufacturers and
distribution facilities, which serve a multi-state area.
Copyright 2004. Insight Research Corporation, 9441 LBJ Fwy, Lock Box 20, Dallas Texas 75243 (972)238-8838
18
Central LBJ Corridor (IH-35 to Audelia Road): In the central portion of the LBJ
Corridor Study Area, from the IH-35E interchange and continuing to Audelia
Road in Dallas, a well developed urban mix of office and retail uses is present.
Redevelopment and density increases have occurred along the south side of LBJ
between Webb Chapel to Josey Lane, transitioning from retail to office uses.
Major retail activity on the Central LBJ Corridor includes the Galleria and Valley
View Mall, both well-established regional malls with several million square feet of
associated peripheral retail space. Retail activity throughout the area is
dominated by traditional shopping sites at major intersections of thoroughfares,
plus long established retail centers of less than one million square feet, such as
Belt Line at the Tollway and Preston at Forest.
Figure 11: Central LBJ Corridor
The central LBJ corridor includes major office users such as Brinker
International, Mary Kay Cosmetics, and Blue Cross/Blue Shield. In the vicinity of
LBJ and US-75 through Richardson, “Telecom Corridor”, high-tech research and
development, telecommunications and high tech manufacturing is dominated by
Texas Instruments on the northeast corner, with other office users including
Cingular, MCI, Nortel, and Samsung. This urban center includes hotel users and
financial headquarters.
The “High Five” interchange at the intersection of LBJ and US-75 (Central
Expressway) is a multi-year, multi-billion dollar transportation improvement
project scheduled for completion in 2007 which is creating new view corridors
and access points in this portion of the study area.
Copyright 2004. Insight Research Corporation, 9441 LBJ Fwy, Lock Box 20, Dallas Texas 75243 (972)238-8838
19
East LBJ Corridor (Audelia Road to Military Parkway): The east portion of
the study area begins at Audelia Road in the City of Dallas and extends through
the cities of Garland and Sunnyvale to US-80 in Mesquite. Both residential and
commercial areas have developed along the LBJ frontage, with non-residential
development including a more suburban mixture of retail, low-rise office and
industrial uses.
Development patterns on the East LBJ Corridor include the close proximity of
both single- and multi-family development, large educational facilities such as
Amber University and North Mesquite High School, churches, entertainment and
auto dealerships. Much of this area either has raw land available or is highly
suited for adaptive reuse. Commercial uses are dominated by Garland Industrial
Park, the third largest industrial park in the region, a rail-served block of some ten
(10) square miles located in Garland south of Miller Road and extending to LBJ,
which is home of many large distribution facilities.
Figure 12: East LBJ Corridor
Major retail development on the East LBJ Corridor includes Town East Mall in
Mesquite, a well-established regional mall of several million square feet,
surrounded by several million additional square feet of big box retail, business
service and restaurant uses. This mall routinely draws its customer traffic from
many eastern counties in the State. In the area of the East LBJ Corridor along
the border of Sunnyvale and Mesquite, new large-scale residential uses are
flourishing, including Falcon’s Lair among several others, which expect to add
several thousand new residential units over the next decade, as well as some
retail and industrial components.
Copyright 2004. Insight Research Corporation, 9441 LBJ Fwy, Lock Box 20, Dallas Texas 75243 (972)238-8838
20
6. OTHER POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS INFLUENCING THE CORRIDOR
Just outside of the ten mile study area as defined, a number of other
developments are occurring that are of a significant scale, so as to affect
economic activity, employment growth, and resulting traffic patterns in the
corridor. Although these activities are not included in TSZ updates, they provide
additional strength to the forecast employment and population values quantified
in this analysis.
A number of projects itemized below are significant because the projects are
pending or have had public funds scheduled to accelerate their implementation.
Two criteria apply to these projects, described below:
A. The fall outside the study area, and/or
B. The location of these projects is currently insufficiently defined to be
included in Appendix E, Major Development Forecast.
The presence and volume of projects foreshadow statistical employment impacts
and are worthy of note because of their size, as follows:

South Irving: Improvements to Highway 183 in Irving will cause short term
business displacement in affected TSZs and provide additional office, retail
and restaurant employment in other TSZs.

North Irving: The Las Colinas area in North Irving is one of several strong
contenders for a potential NFL stadium, planned for an 85,000 seat stadium
and peripheral development that will include a practice field, a hotel, and
related retail.

North Irving: Two DART rail stations in Irving are planned but as yet have
not been focused in a definable TSZ, with one station expected near Lake
Carolyn and another in the Urban Center area. If development is consistent
with other DART stations, additional retail and multi-family employment could
be expected in 2010 and 2015.

Plano: The Shops at Willowbend, a large retail mall development, has had
limited success. Discussions now being held suggest that a portion of the
site could be converted to Collin County Community College facilities.
Copyright 2004. Insight Research Corporation, 9441 LBJ Fwy, Lock Box 20, Dallas Texas 75243 (972)238-8838
21

Dallas: In Dallas, Valley View Mall continues to undergo renovation to keep
its market position. Further improvements to that site, which has ample
capacity for added square footage, are being discussed at a conceptual level
with the Dallas City Planning Department.

Dallas: Also according to Dallas Planning Department concept discussions,
the former site of Lambert Landscape at Hillcrest and Coit in Dallas is a
prominent campus sized site on the north side of LBJ with significant
frontage. Several concept plans have included mixed use development at
this location, but further refinements of the financial viability of the site’s
redevelopment continue to be pursued.

Dallas: City sponsored improvements to the Harry Hines Corridor in Dallas
are being considered for both bond fund investments in infrastructure and
incentives for private redevelopment.

Richardson:
“Project Emmitt” in Richardson, disclosed as a Texas
Instruments wafer fabrication plant, will bring 1,000 high paying
manufacturing and research jobs and $3 billion in new capital investments to
its proposed Alma Road site by 2010, and an additional 1,000 jobs and major
capital investments by 2015. This project is just outside the LBJ study area,
but was the subject of a major legislative incentive to provide specialized
electrical engineering degrees at the University of Texas at Dallas Campus.

Richardson: A DART rail station at Lookout and Central has been
completed. If development is consistent with other DART stations as is being
encouraged by the City of Richardson, additional retail and multi-family
employment can be expected by 2005 and 2010.

Richardson: Cisco Systems, a high-tech manufacturer, is in the concept
planning stages for an expanded facility on its campus site in Richardson with
employment of 3,000 by 2010.

Richardson: In conjunction with the expansion of the Texas Instruments
wafer fabrication plant, the University of Texas at Dallas plans continued
expansion of its mixed use office and retail development north of Campbell
Road.
Copyright 2004. Insight Research Corporation, 9441 LBJ Fwy, Lock Box 20, Dallas Texas 75243 (972)238-8838
22

Richardson: The Palisades, a Crescent Property in Richardson, has
announced that it is exploring the addition of office space in a new expansion
phase, providing additional office employment.

Mesquite: Also outside of the study area, 300 acres of residential
development in Mesquite is now being platted north of Cartwright at Lawson
and continue to Berry and Lawson.

Mesquite: Lucas Farms, a 1400 acre area of undeveloped land in southeast
Mesquite, is also being land planned and platted primarily for residential
development starting by 2010.

Mesquite: At Mesquite Metro Airport, a 400-acre rail served industrial park is
planned for completion by 2010, with additional industrial users being actively
recruited by the City of Mesquite.
Copyright 2004. Insight Research Corporation, 9441 LBJ Fwy, Lock Box 20, Dallas Texas 75243 (972)238-8838
23
7.
FINDINGS OF NEW PROJECT IMPACT
The following chart and tables illustrate the findings of Insight Research
Corporation’s analysis of employment and population change from the NCTCOG
projection. The table below is supplemented by actual low-mid-high population
and employment values in five year increments as calculated from the research
as Appendix F.
LBJ Managed Lanes TSZ Analysis - Employment Projections
NCTCOG, Probable, Low and High Scenarios
1.4
Millions of Jobs
1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Probable Economic Cycle
NCTCOG
Probable
Low
High
Figure 13: LBJ Study Area Direct and Indirect Employment Projections:
NCTCOG, Probable, Low and High Scenarios
Copyright 2004. Insight Research Corporation, 9441 LBJ Fwy, Lock Box 20, Dallas Texas 75243 (972)238-8838
24
Year
NCTCOG
Trend
IRC
Probable
Trend
IRC Low
Trend
IRC High
Trend
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
949,133
1,032,902
1,132,484
1,211,522
1,267,753
1,293,063
947,966
1,059,381
1,165,702
1,247,549
1,303,780
1,329,090
930,903
1,040,312
1,144,719
1,225,093
1,280,312
1,305,166
985,885
1,101,756
1,212,330
1,297,451
1,355,931
1,382,254
Table 2: LBJ Study Area Direct and Indirect Employment Projections
NCCOG, Probable Low and High Scenarios
Copyright 2004. Insight Research Corporation, 9441 LBJ Fwy, Lock Box 20, Dallas Texas 75243 (972)238-8838
25
ADDITIONAL NOTES ON THE FINDINGS
Insight’s forecast accounted for 2000 to 2005 job losses in the telecommunications
industry, which was heavily represented among employers in the central portion of the
LBJ study area. As of 2004, the “Telecom Corridor” was recovering high-tech
employment slowly but steadily. Additional projects, both under construction and with
approved plat activity, were added where NCTCOG’s employment forecasts had not yet
been updated, resulting in an increase in direct employment at the probable, or -- midlevel -- forecast of corridor employment.
The appendices, cited below and included as Section 8, provide added detail on specific
aspects of the economic overview methodology, contact persons and regional
development updates.
A.
NCTCOG Population and Employment Forecast Methodology
B.
Contact List for This Analysis
C.
Employment to Population Ratio
D.
Real Estate Market Overview by Product Type
E.
Major Development Forecast
F.
Low, Probable and High Forecasts of Population and Employment Added to
the NCTCOG Database
G.
Insight Research Corporation
Copyright 2004. Insight Research Corporation, 9441 LBJ Fwy, Lock Box 20, Dallas Texas 75243 (972)238-8838
26