Can Fuzzy DEA Effectively Measure Bank Efficiency? An Implication Evidence from Taiwan Hsien-Chang Kuo1,a, Yang Li2, Gwo-Hshiung Tzeng3,and Ya-Hui Tsai1 1 Department of Banking and Finance, National Chi-Nan University 1, University Rd., Puli, Nantou 545, Taiwan Tel: 886-49-2912698; Fax: 886-49-2914511; E-mail: hckuo@ncnu.edu.tw a Takming College 56, Sec.1, Huanshan Rd., Neihu, Taipei 114, Taiwan Tel: 886-2-26585801; Fax: 886-2-26588448; E-mail: hckuo@takming.edu.tw 2 3 Institute of Economics and Management; National University of Kaohsiung 700, Kaohsiung University Rd., Nan Tzu Dist., Kaohsiung 811, Taiwan Tel: 886-7-5919341; Fax: 886-7-5919342; E-mail: yangli@nuk.edu.tw Institute of Technology and Management; Institute of Management of Technology National Chiao Tung University; 1001, Ta-Hsuch Rd., Hsinchu 300, Taiwan Tel: 886-3-5712121 ext 57505; Fax: 886-2-23120519; E-mail: ghtzeng@cc.nctu.edu.tw Department of Bussiness Administration, Kainan University No.1, Kainan Road, Luchu, Taoyuan 338, Taiwan Tel: 886-3-3412500 ext. 1101; Fax: 886-3-3412430; E-mail: ghtzeng@mail.knu.edu.tw February 2006 Can Fuzzy DEA Effectively Measure Bank Efficiency? An Implication Evidence from Taiwan Abstract Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is widely applied in evaluating the efficiency of banks since it is a method capable of evaluating the efficiency of decision making units in utilizing multiple inputs to produce multiple outputs. However, some outputs of banks, in fact, possess fuzzy characteristics, while conventional DEA approach can only assess efficiency with a crisp value and is unable to evaluate imprecise data. Theoretically, the fuzzy DEA approach can evaluate banks’ efficiency more realistic and accurate since it can take the fuzzy characteristics of inputs and/or outputs into consideration. This study adopts 48 Taiwanese commercial banks as an empirical example to demonstrate the feasibility and the effectiveness in our proposed fuzzy DEA. The results show that the fuzzy DEA approach could not only effectively characterize uncertainty, but also may have a higher capability to discriminate banks’ efficiency than the conventional DEA approach. Keywords: Fuzzy DEA, bank efficiency, technical efficiency, -cut, imprecise data. 1 I. Introduction Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a method capable of evaluating the efficiency of decision making units (DMUs) in utilizing multiple inputs to produce multiple outputs; hence, it is widely applied in evaluating the efficiency of banks (Sherman and Gold, 1985; Aly et al., 1990; Yue, 1992; Miller and Noulas, 1996; Berger and DeYoung, 1997; Berger and Humphrey, 1997). However, the conventional DEA model can only assess efficiency with a crisp value and is unable to evaluate imprecise data (Kao and Liu, 2000). Thus, Cooper et al. (1999) proposed a unified approach to treating mixtures involving exact as well as imprecise data, while some of the data may be know only within specified bounds, the other data may be known only in terms of ordinal relations. Although the enhanced study provided imprecise data using the DEA approach, it did not deal with data specified in bounded forms. The outputs of banks, including loan income and investment income, in fact, possess fuzzy characteristics: for example, credit granting is a risky output because of the ex ante risk for loans to eventually become non-performing loans (NPLs) (Li, 2003). It is difficult to accurately measure how many problem loans might become normal loans and how many normal loans might become problem loans. As for investment, the investment income of a bank, which is not a constant number, changes daily on account of the market value of the investment target changes daily. To evaluate banks’ efficiency more realistically and accurately, this study employs the fuzzy DEA model with data specified in bounded forms to measure the efficiency of banks. Financial institutes in all countries are important parts of the chain in the financial systems. The quality of the financial institutes determines the level of development of a country’s economy. A healthy financial institution relies on its asset quality, capacity, asset flow, capital adequate ratio, and etc. has recently grown fierce. However, competition between financial institutes Gradual increasing NPLs indeed affect economy seriously. 2 In the late 1980s, Japanese banks generally lacked an awareness of risks (Hoshi and Kashyap, 1999). They turned banks into over-loaning enterprises. By the early 1990s, when the “bubble economy” collapsed, a large scale of enterprises went bankrupt resulting in the insurgence of NPLs in a troubled financial system. In 1988, more than 200 American commercial banks went bankrupt (see Figure 1), the increase of bad assets and worsening finance exposed the banking industry to liquidity risks and serious financial crisis. In 1997-98, the Asian financial crisis caused all the countries involved, South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and so forth, to suffer from drastic increases in overdue loans and a worsening financial condition (Park, 2002). The affected countries shared common problems of excessive risk-taking, especially after the economical liberalization in Southeast Asia, mainly because these countries lacked an appropriate management system (Kao and Liu, 2004). Therefore, a high NPL ratio has been a general problem of the global financial industry and results in the predicament of banks’ operations. The main purpose of this study is to take the fuzzy phenomena of outputs into consideration in order to effectively incorporate NPLs to measure banks’ efficiency. 250 209 200 206 186 Banks Failure Number 158 150 141 116 100 78 45 50 32 10 7 1980 1981 0 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 Year Data source: FDIC, Commercial Bank Report, 2005, US. Figure 1: US Banks’ Bankruptcy in 1980’s 3 1988 1989 1990 After publishing the fuzzy set that began in 1965, Zadeh applied a mathematical method to express the fuzzy situation in a real environment, and then fuzzy set approach was introduced into engineering science, creating a foundation for the fuzzy set theory. The theory is widely applied from medicine to engineering to the commercial field. Fuzzy DEA, combined fuzzy set theory with DEA model, is more capable of handling drawbacks of data than the traditional DEA approach and is able to find the interval for the fuzzy number efficiency score even if the correct efficiency score of the fuzzy number is unavailable. Furthermore, a possible interval for the efficiency score can be derived given a different α-cut, and the greater the value is, the more possible it is to see an accurate efficiency score of the fuzzy number. Kao and Liu (2000a) applied -cut and the extension principle which Zadeh (1965) proposed to transform a fuzzy DEA model into a conventional crisp DEA model. The upper and lower bounds on the membership functions of the efficiency score is derived under a specific level. Saati et al. (2002) employed a fuzzy CCR model with an asymmetrical triangular fuzzy number. Entani et al. (2002) obtained the interval efficiency score from the optimistic and the pessimistic viewpoints and extended the idea into interval data or DEA model with fuzzy data. This study mainly discusses the influence on bank efficiency with fuzzy outputs and adopts fuzzy set theory to solve problems. Fuzzy DEA may, in addition to measuring fuzzy data, be applied to establish the upper and lower bounds of the efficiency score and obtain valuable information from the intervals between the upper and the lower bounds under a specific level. The application of fuzzy DEA model can more realistically represent real-world problems than the conventional DEA models (Lertworasirikul et al., 2003). The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. In Section II the Fuzzy DEA model and the process of measuring this problem are discussed and proposed. 4 An implication example is used to illustrate the proposed model for measuring bank efficiency in Section III. Finally, discussions are presented in Section IV and conclusions are given in Section V. II. The Fuzzy DEA Model Suppose that there are H DMUs producing M outputs by using N inputs. In Fuzzy DEA, inputs and outputs are characterized by uncertainty, and therefore we use ~x jn and ~ y jm to represent input n and output m of DMUj, respectively. x jn Assume that the inputs ~ y jm are approximately known and can be represented by membership and the outputs ~ functions ~x jn and ~y jm of the fuzzy set, respectively. Note that the crisp value can be represented by degenerated membership functions in which there is only one value in their domain. The fuzzy DEA model can be written as follows: E j max s.t. M u um y mj u0 n 1 n nj u y mh n 1 n nh M m 1 m1 m 0 N N u1 ,..., uM , v1 ,..., vN 0, u0 is where is a small non-Archimedean quantity. vx v x 1, h 1,..., H free (1) Kao and Liu (2000) proposed a way to transform the fuzzy DEA model to the traditional crisp DEA model by applying -cut approach. x jn and ~ y jm are defined as follows: The -cut of ~ 5 ( x jn ) {x jn S ( ~ x jn ) | ~x jn ( x jn ) } [( x jn )L , ( x jn )U ] [min {x S ( ~ x ) | ~ ( x ) }, x jn jn jn x jn (2a) jn max {x jn S ( ~ x jn ) | ~x ( x jn ) }] x jn jn ( y jm ) { y jm S ( y jm ) | y jm ( y jm ) } [( y jm )L , ( y jm )U ] [min{ y jm S ( y jm ) | y jm ( y jm ) }, (2b) y jm max{ y jm S ( y jm ) | y jm ( y jm ) }] y jm y jm ) are the support of ~ x jn ) and S ( ~ x jn and ~ y jm , respectively. where [0, 1] , and S ( ~ The intervals indicate the corresponding inputs and outputs ranges at each possibility level . According to Zadeh’s extension principle (1978), the membership function of efficiency evaluation for DMUj may be defined as follows: x , y , j, m, n z E x, y E ( z ) sup min x j x, y jn jn y jm jm j (3) where E j ( x, y ) is the efficiency score calculated by the conventional BCC model under a set of x and y. ~ In order to find the bounds of the intervals for E j ( x, y) at each possibility level α, Kao and Liu (2000) suggest a pair of mathematical programming, which is function of α, as follows: E L j max s.t M M u ( y jm m1 m M ) u ) u N u ( y jm )L u0 m1 m u ( yhm m1 m N L 0 U v ( x jn )U n 1 n 0 v ( x jn )U 1 n 1 n N v ( xhn )L 1, h 1,..., H , h j n 1 n u1 ,..., uM , v1 ,..., vN 0, u0 6 is free. (4a) E U j max s.t M M u ( y jm m1 m M ) u ) u u ( y jm )U u0 m1 m u ( yhm m1 m N U v ( x jn )L v ( x jn )L 1 0 n 1 n 0 n 1 n L N n 1 n N v ( xhn )U 1, h 1,..., H , h j u1 ,..., uM , v1 ,..., vN 0, u0 is (4b) free. Model (4a) means that in order to find the minimal relative efficiency of the DMUj compared with others, the data should be applied from the lowest output value of the DMUj and the lowest input value of other DMUs as well as the highest input value of the DMUj and the highest output value of other DMUs. Similarly, model (4b) indicates that for the maximal relative efficiency of the DMUj compared with others, the data should be applied from the highest output value of the DMUj and the highest input value of other DMUs as well as the lowest input value of the DMUj and the lowest output value of other DMUs. Furthermore, model (4a) and (4b) are conventional DEA models capable of translating into linear programming to obtain the optimal weights. The -cut set of fuzzy efficiency score ~ E j may be established as ( E j ) [( E j )L , ( E j )U ] . A different value means a different range/interval and a level of uncertainty of the efficiency score. The greater the value is, the smaller the range/interval of upper and lower bounds is and the lower the level of uncertainty is. The value 0 means the widest range that the efficiency score will emerge, and 1 means the efficiency score that is most likely to be achieved. Fuzzy DEA may result in a fuzzy efficiency score. Picking the best DMU from numerous fuzzy efficiency scores cannot be solely determined by the fuzzy efficiency score. Therefore, ranking fuzzy efficiency score becomes the key to finding the best DMU. 7 There are many ranking methods for fuzzy numbers (Chen, 1985, Tseng and Klein, 1989, Chen and Klein, 1997, Saati et al., 2002; Kao and Liu, 2003). However, most of the ranking approaches require known membership functions, which are difficult to acquire in the real world. This study adopts the approach, proposed by Chen and Klein (1997), to rank the fuzzy numbers only based on -cut. Let k be the maximum height of E~ j , j 1,..., H . Suppose that k is equally divided into T intervals such that i ik T , i 0, 1,..., T . Chen and Klein (1997) defined the following index to rank the fuzzy efficiency scores: I j i 0 (( E j )Ui c) T T i 0 (( E j )Ui c) i 0 (( E j )Li d ) , T where c min i , j {( E j )Li } and d max i , j {( E j )Ui } . T (5) The DMU with the favored fuzzy efficiency score will have the larger index number. The fuzzy DEA model of this study may be divided into four steps, as described below: Step 1. Determine the type of fuzzy membership function We may know, based on the fuzzy set theory, that the membership function sits between 0 and 1. Generally, the membership function can be classified into a trigonometric function, trapezoidal function, Z-function, and sigmoid function; the trigonometric function and trapezoidal function are more often applied. Step 2. Calculate the upper and lower interval values of theα-cut In accordance with the fuzzy situation of the multi-value, to induce fuzzy space to calculate the upper and lower interval values of the α-cut. Step 3. Calculate the upper and lower bounds of the efficiency score Calculate the upper and lower bounds of the efficiency score of each DMU, and then 8 repeat to find the upper and lower bounds of the efficiency scores of all DMUs. Step 4. Rank the fuzzy efficiency According to the index proposed by Chen and Klein (1997), we can rank the fuzzy efficiency scores of all DMUs to find the better performing DMU only based on α-cut. Then, we use the model to measure the bank efficiency. An empirical example is illustrated to show the proposed model in next Section. III. An Empirical Example for Measuring Bank Efficiency This study takes Taiwanese commercial banks as an example, calculates the data collected on the basis of the trapezoidal function to obtain the upper and lower interval values of each value, and finds the upper and lower bounds of the efficiency score using model (4). We then rank the calculated upper and lower bounds of the efficiency score to find the best performing banks. The sample is the annual data of 48 Taiwanese commercial banks in 2002. The sources of the data are Taiwan Economic Journal Data Bank, “Conditions and Performance of Domestic Banks Quarterly,” “Financial Institutions Major Business Statistics” published by the Economic Research Department of the Central Bank of Taiwan, and statistics data of foreign bank branches in Taiwan provided by the Bureau of Monetary Affairs, Ministry of Finance in Taiwan. The choice of inputs and outputs is perhaps the most important task in employing DEA to measure the relative efficiency of the DMUs. Two approaches are widely used to identify a bank’s inputs and outputs, the production approach (Sherman and Gold, 1985), and the intermediation approach (Aly et al., 1990; Yue, 1992; Miller and Noulas, 1996; Favero and Pepi, 1995). Under the production approach, banks are treated as a firm to produce loans, deposits, and other assets by using labor and capital. 9 However, banks are considered as financial intermediaries to transform deposits, purchase funds and labors into loans and other assets under the intermediation approach. More specifically, deposits are treated as an input under the production approach and an output under the intermediation approach. This study views banks as intermediation institutions and adopts the concept of the intermediation approach to recognize outputs and inputs. Hence, the outputs include loan, investment, and other income, while the inputs consist of the number of employees, total fixed asset, and deposits. We treat loan and investment as fuzzy items and analyze the efficiency of the banking industry with a trapezoidal function from the fuzzy set theory. The advantage of the trapezoidal function is that imprecise outputs still retain the fuzzy characteristics (interval values) when α=1. The trigonometric function, another widely used function in fuzzy set theory, regresses into a single value when α=1 without the fuzzy phenomena. The leftmost value and the rightmost value of loan and investment, characterized by fuzzy phenomena, in the trapezoidal function ( a1 ,a5 in Figure 2) must be determined first. In terms of the loan variable, this study places the loan variable in the middle ( a3 ). Adding and subtracting NPLs (loans × NPLs ratio) from a3 results in a1 and a5 . Adding and subtracting one half of NPLs from a3 results in a2 and a4 . In terms of the investment variable, considering that investment involves profits and losses from two items, including buying and selling stocks and bills and long-term investment of equity shares, this study places the investment variable in the middle ( a3 ). Adding and subtracting two times the profit or loss from buying and selling stocks and bills and long-term investment of equity shares from a3 results in a 1 and a 5 . Adding and subtracting the profit or loss from buying and selling stocks and bills and long-term investment of equity shares from a3 results in a2 and a4 . The fuzzy output of -cut, to any [0, 1] , is expressed as [( a2 a1 ) a1 , (a4 a5 ) a5 ] by the interval method. 10 Insert a1 ~ a5 respectively, and match them with 11 values, i.e., 0, 0.1, 0.2,..., 1 , to find the upper and lower interval values of loan and investment of all the sample banks so as to calculate the fuzzy efficiency score of each bank in this empirical example. α 1.0 0.0 α1 α2 α3 α4 α5 Input/Output Figure 2 Trapezoidal Membership Function After the upper and lower bounds of loan and investment of all sample banks are derived in step 2, we can make use of the concept from models (4a) and (4b) to find the upper and the lower bounds of the relative efficiency score of each bank. Table 1 shows the possible upper and lower bounds of efficiency scores of each sample bank under each -cut. The value 0 means the range that the efficiency score must fall within, and 1 means what the efficiency score is most likely to be. The greater the value is, the smaller the interval will be between the upper and lower bounds of the efficiency score. For example, the efficiency score of Bank 5 (the name of banks and their corresponding series numbers of sample banks list in Appendix) is not less than 0.916 and not greater then 0.969 ( 0 ), while its efficiency score is most likely between 0.929 and 0.956 ( 1 ). Table 1 also shows that the minimal value is 0.479 and the maximum value is 1. There are 14 banks (Bank 1, 3, 4, 7, 11, 16, 20, 30, 31, 35, 36, 43, 45, and 47) with the upper and lower bounds of an efficiency score of 1. Hence, these 14 banks have efficiency score 1 11 with a crisp value. Table 1: Fuzzy Efficiency Scores of Taiwanese Commercial Banks under Value Sample Banks 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1 (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) 2 (0.588, 0.803) (0.596, 0.791) (0.605, 0.780) (0.613, 0.769) (0.622, 0.757) (0.632, 0.746) 3 (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) 4 (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) 5 (0.916, 0.969) (0.918, 0.966) (0.921, 0.964) (0.924, 0.961) (0.926, 0.958) (0.929, 0.956) 6 (0.932, 1.000) (0.946, 1.000) (0.960, 1.000) (0.974, 1.000) (0.988, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) 7 (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000,1.000) (1.000,1.000) 8 (0.870, 1.000) (0.880, 1.000) (0.890, 1.000) (0.900, 1.000) (0.911, 1.000) (0.921, 1.000) 9 (0.928, 1.000) (0.938, 1.000) (0.948, 1.000) (0.958, 1.000) (0.968, 1.000) (0.978, 1.000) 10 (0.762, 1.000) (0.775, 1.000) (0.788, 1.000) (0.801, 1.000) (0.815, 1.000) (0.829, 0.985) 11 (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) 12 (0.786, 0.855) (0.791, 0.854) (0.797, 0.853) (0.802, 0.852) (0.808, 0.851) (0.814, 0.850) 13 (0.635, 0.768) (0.642, 0.762) (0.649, 0.756) (0.655, 0.750) (0.662, 0.744) (0.669, 0.738) 14 (0.804, 0.861) (0.807, 0.858) (0.810, 0.855) (0.812, 0.852) (0.815, 0.849) (0.818, 0.846) 15 (0.676, 0.843) (0.683, 0.834) (0.691, 0.826) (0.700, 0.818) (0.710, 0.810) (0.719, 0.802) 16 (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) 17 (0.912, 1.000) (0.928, 1.000) (0.945, 1.000) (0.961, 1.000) (0.978, 1.000) (0.995, 1.000) 18 (0.880, 1.000) (0.886, 0.998) (0.892, 0.992) (0.898, 0.985) (0.904, 0.979) (0.910, 0.973) 19 (0.982, 1.000) (0.988, 1.000) (0.994, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) 20 (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) 21 (0.745, 0.807) (0.749, 0.805) (0.753, 0.803) (0.757, 0.801) (0.761, 0.798) (0.765, 0.796) 22 (0.632, 0.744) (0.637, 0.738) (0.643, 0.732) (0.649, 0.727) (0.654, 0.721) (0.660, 0.716) 23 (0.616, 0.835) (0.622, 0.821) (0.627, 0.809) (0.634, 0.796) (0.642, 0.784) (0.650, 0.772) 24 (0.479, 1.000) (0.483, 1.000) (0.491, 1.000) (0.512, 1.000) (0.550, 1.000) (0.593, 1.000) 25 (0.886, 0.965) (0.890, 0.961) (0.894, 0.958) (0.898, 0.954) (0.903, 0.950) (0.907, 0.946) 26 (0.952, 1.000) (0.954, 1.000) (0.956, 1.000) (0.958, 1.000) (0.960, 1.000) (0.962, 1.000) 27 (0.786, 0.921) (0.793, 0.914) (0.800, 0.908) (0.807, 0.901) (0.814, 0.895) (0.820, 0.888) 28 (0.652, 0.734) (0.656, 0.730) (0.660, 0.725) (0.664, 0.721) (0.668, 0.716) (0.672, 0.712) 29 (0.814, 0.958) (0.821, 0.951) (0.828, 0.944) (0.836, 0.937) (0.844, 0.930) (0.851, 0.923) 30 (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) 12 Table 1: (continued) 31 (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) 32 (0.600, 0.736) (0.605, 0.729) (0.611, 0.722) (0.616, 0.714) (0.622, 0.707) (0.628, 0.700) 33 (0.629, 0.752) (0.636, 0.747) (0.642, 0.741) (0.649, 0.736) (0.656, 0.730) (0.663, 0.725) 34 (0.721, 0.882) (0.728, 0.873) (0.735, 0.865) (0.742, 0.856) (0.750, 0.848) (0.757, 0.839) 35 (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) 36 (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) 37 (0.759, 1.000) (0.777, 1.000) (0.796, 1.000) (0.815, 1.000) (0.834, 1.000) (0.854, 1.000) 38 (0.849, 0.962) (0.855, 0.956) (0.860, 0.951) (0.866, 0.946) (0.872, 0.940) (0.878, 0.935) 39 (0.569, 0.672) (0.575, 0.667) (0.580, 0.662) (0.586, 0.657) (0.591, 0.652) (0.596, 0.647) 40 (0.545, 0.702) (0.552, 0.694) (0.560, 0.686) (0.567, 0.678) (0.575, 0.670) (0.583, 0.662) 41 (0.617, 0.824) (0.627, 0.814) (0.639, 0.804) (0.653, 0.794) (0.668, 0.783) (0.678, 0.773) 42 (0.663, 0.988) (0.663, 0.961) (0.663, 0.933) (0.663, 0.906) (0.663, 0.883) (0.663, 0.860) 43 (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) 44 (0.988, 1.000) (0.988, 1.000) (0.988, 1.000) (0.988, 1.000) (0.988, 1.000) (0.988, 1.000) 45 (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) 46 (0.918, 0.968) (0.920, 0.965) (0.922, 0.963) (0.924, 0.960) (0.927, 0.957) (0.929, 0.955) 47 (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) (1.000, 1.000) 48 (0.917, 1.000) (0.917, 1.000) (0.917, 1.000) (0.919, 1.000) (0.921, 1.000) (0.923, 1.000) Note: (1) the number of left side in parentheses is the lower bound of fuzzy efficiency score, and the number of right side in parentheses is the upper bound of fuzzy efficiency score; (2) this table lists only 6 values, e.g. = 0, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 1; (3) see Appendix for the serial numbers of sample banks. This study employs the index proposed by Chen and Klein (1997) to rank the fuzzy efficiency scores of all banks. A bank with the larger index number is associated with a more preferred fuzzy efficiency score. efficiency (Farrell, 1957). scores. Note that the ranking index is not the Farrell The indices only serve to rank DMUs with the fuzzy efficiency Theoretically, this approach requires the number of -cuts, T, to be large enough. However, Chen and Klein (1997) argued that T = 3 or 4 is sufficient to discriminate DMUs. Table 2 shows that there are 14 efficient banks (with a ranking index of 1), which are corresponding to those banks with the upper and lower bounds of an efficiency score of 1 in 13 Table 1. Other banks are inefficient (with a ranking index to be less than 1), which are those banks with at least one lower bound of less than 1; for example, the ranking index is 0.989 for Bank 19, which has the upper and lower bounds of an efficiency score of 1 when 0.6 while its lower bounds are less than 1 when 0.4 (upper bounds are still 1). Table 2 Ranking of Fuzzy Efficiency Score of Taiwan’s Commercial Banks Ranking Sample Bank Ranking Index Ranking Sample Bank Ranking Index 1 1 1.000 25 18 0.829 1 3 1.000 26 25 0.821 1 4 1.000 27 38 0.774 1 7 1.000 28 29 0.733 1 11 1.000 29 37 0.728 1 16 1.000 30 10 0.717 1 20 1.000 31 27 0.684 1 30 1.000 32 14 0.665 1 31 1.000 33 12 0.651 1 35 1.000 34 34 0.594 1 36 1.000 35 21 0.568 1 43 1.000 35 42 0.568 1 45 1.000 37 15 0.531 1 47 1.000 38 24 0.518 15 19 0.989 39 41 0.475 16 44 0.977 40 23 0.468 17 6 0.940 41 13 0.441 18 26 0.924 42 2 0.431 19 17 0.918 43 33 0.423 20 9 0.917 44 28 0.419 21 48 0.865 45 22 0.414 22 46 0.863 46 32 0.382 23 5 0.862 47 40 0.318 24 8 0.833 48 39 0.302 14 IV. Discussions Empirical results show that there are 14 banks (Bank 1, 3, 4, 7, 11, 16, 20, 30, 31, 35, 36, 43, 45, and 47) with the upper and lower bounds of an efficiency score of 1; in other words, they are efficient banks surely. conventional crisp DEA model. These banks, of course, are also efficient under the However, there are another 5 banks, Bank 6, 9, 17, 19, and 44, that are efficient (with efficiency score 1) under non-fuzzy condition, while their ranking indices are less than 1 with rankings between 15 and 20 (i.e., at least one lower bound is less than 1) under fuzzy condition. This may indicate that the fuzzy DEA approach might have a higher ability to discriminate between efficient and inefficient banks than the conventional DEA approach. The average NPLs ratio of Taiwanese commercial banks is 9.08% in 2002, while in our study it is 20.07% for Bank 44. This average ratio from 2002 implies that its quality of loans is far below average in Taiwan’s banking industry. The traditional crisp DEA model without adjusting the quality of loans indicates that Taiwan’s banking industry is efficient, while the fuzzy DEA model with adjusting for the quality of loans identifies the banking industry to be inefficient. Hence, a better approach to measuring banks’ efficiency is to adjust effectively the loan and/or investment quality. There are 12 banks, Bank 6, 8, 9, 10, 17, 18, 19, 24, 26, 37, 44, and 48, with upper value of 1when = 1 (the widest interval), indicating that the best efficiency score of these banks might be 1 (i.e., each of them is a possible efficient bank). Nevertheless, their lower bounds, in which the efficiency scores will never fall below, show great variation from 0.479 to 0.988 with rankings between 15 and 38. The other 22 banks are unlikely to be efficient since their upper bounds are less than one for all values. Furthermore, the banks with lower quality of loans and/or investment will have a wider interval, suggesting that the fuzzy DEA model can characterize uncertainty effectively. 15 Operational performance is especially more important under the fierce competition and rapid changing environment of the banking industry. Compared with previous studies of evaluating bank efficiency with the DEA approach, the greatest feature of Fuzzy DEA is that it is able to resolve the uncertainty in the production process (Cooper et al., 1999; Kao and Liu, 2000; Guo and Tanaka, 2001; Despotis and Smirlis, 2002), which the conventional DEA could not handle. V. Conclusions DEA is widely applied to measure the performance of the banking system since it is capable of evaluating the efficiency of DMUs with multi-output and multi-input. Previous studies used the conventional DEA model to measure banks’ efficiency by assuming that all inputs and outputs are crisp. However, loan and investment, the outputs of banks, do posses fuzzy phenomena because of the imprecise NPLs and the sizeable volatility of the stock market. The fuzzy DEA approach can evaluate the efficiency of banks more accurately and realistically since it can take into account the fuzzy characteristics of inputs and/or outputs. This study takes the fuzzy phenomena of loan income and investment income into consideration and employs the fuzzy DEA approach to evaluate Taiwanese commercial banks. The empirical results show that the fuzzy DEA approach could not only successfully characterize the uncertainty of efficiencies, but also may have the higher ability to discriminate banks’ efficiency than the traditional DEA model. as follows: The other findings are (1) There are 14 banks with precise efficiency score of 1 even though their loans and investments characterized by fuzzy phenomena; (2) Twelve inefficient banks with at least one upper bound to be one still has the possibility to be efficient; (3) There are 22 banks that are unlikely to be efficient since all of their upper and lower bounds are less than 1. 16 There are several possible extensions for this study. We can apply this approach to analyze other financial institutions, such as foreign-owned banks and credit unions. 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Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 1, 3-28. 19 Appendix: Serial numbers of sample banks: No Bank No Bank 1 Chiao Tung Bank 25 Taishin International Bank 2 The Farmers Bank of China 26 Fubon Bank 3 Bank of Taiwan 27 Ta Chong Bank 4 Taipei Bank 28 Jih Sun International Bank 5 Bank of Kaoshiung 29 EnTie Bank 6 Land Bank of Taiwan 30 Chinatrust Commercial Bank 7 Taiwan Cooperative Bank 31 Chinfon Bank 8 First Commercial Bank 32 Macoto Bnk 9 Hua Nan Commercial Bank 33 Sunny Bank 10 Chang Hwa Commercial Bank 34 Bank of Panshin 11 The International Commercial Bank of China 35 Lucky Bank 12 United World Chinese Commercial Bank 36 Kao Shin Commercial Bank 13 Hua Chiao Bank 37 Taiwan Business Bank 14 The Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank Ltd. 38 International Bank of Taipei 15 Grand Commercial Bank 39 Hsinchu International Bank 16 Union Bank of Taiwan 40 Taichung Commercial Bank 17 The Chinese Bank 41 Tainan Business Bank 18 Far Eastern International Bank 42 Kaohsiung Business Bank 19 Fuhwa Bank 43 Enterprise Bank of Hualien 20 Bank Sinopac 44 Taitung Business Bank 21 E. Sun Bank 45 Cathay United Bank 22 Cosmos Bank, Taiwan 46 Hwatai Bank 23 Pan Asia Commercial Bank 47 COTA Commercial Bank 24 Chung Shing Bank 48 United-Credit Commercial Bank 20