CHAPTER 8 RISK-AVERSION, CAPITAL ASSET ALLOCATION, AND MARKOWITZ PORTFOLIO-SELECTION MODEL 1. RP WA RA WB RB .25(8) .75(12) 11% 2. The variance of a portfolio consists of two components: a) A weighted average of the variances of the securities in the portfolio. b) A component which measures the relationship between each pair of securities in the portfolio. This relationship is measured by the covariance. For a two security portfolio: Var ( RP ) WA2Var ( RA ) (1 WA )2 Var ( RB ) 2WA (1 WA )Cov( RA , RB ) 3. u(0) 0 u(0) 0 u(0) 0 implies risk averse implies risk neutral implies risk seeker (a) u (W ) AeBW u(W ) BAe BW u(W ) B 2 AeBW u(0) B 2 A 0 risk seeker u (W ) W 5 W 2 3 4 u(W ) 5 W 6 u(W ) 2W 4 5 u( 0 ) 0 r i ks neutral (b) (c) u (W ) W 2 / 3 u(W ) 2 / 3W 5 / 3 u(W ) 10 / 9W 8 / 3 u(0) 0 risk neutral u (W ) 3W e2W u(W ) 3 2e2W u(W ) 4e2W u(0) 4 0 risk averse (d) 4. A fair game means that the expected returns given information set θ equal the expected returns without the information set. In other words, the returns already reflect all information. Sometimes we define an investor’s risk preferences by looking at his preferences towards a fair gamble. A fair gamble is defined as a gamble where the cost equals the expected value. Risk averse investors always reject a fair gamble. Risk neutral investors are indifferent to a fair gamble. Risk seeking investors will always accept a fair gamble. 5. a) RA .30(10%) .20(11%) .50(12%) 11.2% RB .30(9%) .20(7%) .50(4%) 6.1% Var ( RA ) .30(10 11.2)2 .20(11 11.2)2 .50(12 11.2)2 .76 Var ( RB ) .30(9 6.1)2 .20(7 6.1)2 .50(4 6.1)2 4.89 Cov( RA , RB ) .30(10 11.2)(9 6.1) .20(11 11.2)(7 6.1) .50(12 11.2)(4 6.1) 1.92 b) RP .60(11.2%) .40(6.1%) 9.16% Var ( RP ) (.60)2 (.76) (.40)2 (4.89) 2(.40)(.60)( 1.92) .1344 6. An efficient portfolio is one which has the highest expected return for a given level of risk. Likewise, an inefficient portfolio is one which does not have the highest expected return for a given level of risk. We can use the dominance principle to show that inefficient portfolios will always be dominated by other portfolios. 7. Short selling entails the selling of a security that you don’t own. In portfolio theory, the selling short of one asset is often used to provide the funds to purchase another asset. The efficient frontier consists of all portfolios which satisfy the following two conditions. 1) Have the highest expected return for a given level of risk, and 2) Have the lowest risk for a given expected return. Efficient Frontier Without Short Selling Efficient Frontier With Short Selling 8. Margin requirements determine the amount of money an investor can borrow to purchase shares of stock. The Dyl Model, which incorporates margin requirements into the Markowitz Model, causes the efficient frontier to shift to the northeast. [See Figure 8-10B of text.] 9. a) b) c) 10. a) Minimum risk portfolio can be found by dVar ( RP ) 0 dWA and solving for WA. WA B2 A B PAB A2 B2 2 A B PAB (2)2 (3)(2)(.8) (3)2 (2)2 (2)(3)(2)(.8) .8 9 4 9.6 .2352 So, sell short 23.52% of asset A and place 123.52% in asset B to minimize the risk of the portfolio. RP .2352(16%) 1.2352(10%) 8.59% Var(RP) = (–.2352)2(3)2 + (1.2352)2 (2)2 + 2(–.2352)(1.2352)(3)(2)(.8) = 3.81 b) By selling short the risk free asset, you can obtain the additional funds necessary for investing an additional $5,000 in the risky portfolio. WAB 25, 000 1.25 20, 000 RP (1 WAB ) R f WAB RAB (1 1.25)5% (1.25)8.59% 9.49% 2 Var ( RP ) WAB2 AB (1.25)2 (3.81) 5.95 11. If we assume that Investors can borrow and lend at the risk free rate Rf and if Investors have the same expectations, there will be only one best portfolio. Both John Doe and Jane Roe will purchase the same portfolio, portfolio M, because the combination of the risk free asset and portfolio M dominates all other combinations. However, Jane Roe will probably place some of her money in the riskless asset and some in portfolio M, i.e. she will be a lender. John Doe, on the other hand, will most likely borrow at the risk free rate to buy more of portfolio M, i.e. he will be a borrower. 12. To determine the optimal weights for a portfolio using the Markowitz approach, the portfolio manager can either: 1) Set a target rate of return and find the portfolio which has the least risk. or 2) Set a level of risk for the portfolio and maximize the expected return for this given level of risk. These two problems can be solved using calculus or linear programming methods on a computer. 13. Based on Appendix 10C, we can use Microsoft Excel to calculate the optimal weights of Markowitz model. In Markowitz Model in equation (8.13), we know 2 12 2 13 2 11 2 2 22 2 23 21 2 31 2 32 2 33 1 1 1 E ( R1 ) E ( R2 ) E ( R3 ) 1 E ( R1 ) W1 0 1 E ( R2 ) W2 0 1 E ( R3 ) W3 0 . (8.13) 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 E * K W A Where E* =10%, the required rate of return of the portfolio. From the matrix calculation of Markowitz Model, we can get the optimal weights from multiplying A1 and K . 2 12 2 13 W1 2 11 W 2 2 22 2 23 2 21 W3 2 31 2 32 2 33 1 1 1 1 2 E ( R1 ) E ( R2 ) E ( R3 ) 1 1 1 0 0 E ( R1 ) E ( R2 ) E ( R3 ) 0 0 1 A1 W 0 0 0 . 1 E * K Based on Excel function, the values of average and variance are calculated by “AVERAGE” and “VARP” functions and the covariance matrix is calculated by “Covariance” in “Data Analysis.” JNJ IBM BA E(R ) 0.0082 0.0050 0.0113 Variance 0.0025 0.0070 0.0082 Variance Covariance Matrix JNJ IBM BA JNJ 0.0025 0.0007 0.0007 IBM 0.0007 0.0070 0.0006 BA 0.0007 0.0006 0.0082 Therefore, we can obtain matrix A and K as follows: Matrix A 0.0050 0.0014 0.0015 1.0000 0.0082 0.0014 0.0141 0.0013 1.0000 0.0050 0.0015 0.0013 0.0164 1.0000 0.0113 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0082 0.0050 0.0113 0.0000 0.0000 0 0 0 1 10% K Then, from the matrix calculation of Markowitz Model, we can get the optimal weights from multiplying A1 and K . 2 12 2 13 W1 2 11 W 2 2 22 2 23 2 21 W3 2 31 2 32 2 33 1 1 1 1 2 E ( R1 ) E ( R2 ) E ( R3 ) 1 1 1 0 0 E ( R1 ) E ( R2 ) E ( R3 ) 0 0 1 0 0 0 . 1 E * A1 W K Where matrix A1 is 96.4952 -47.8974 -48.5978 0.5160 17.4282 -47.8974 23.7749 24.1225 1.5313 -166.1896 -48.5978 24.1225 24.4752 -1.0473 148.7614 0.5160 1.5313 -1.0473 -0.0488 5.5748 17.4282 -166.1896 148.7614 5.5748 -690.3857 The optimal weights in W matrix as follows: W1 W2 W3 λ1 λ2 2.2588 -15.0877 13.8289 0.5087 -63.4638 If short-selling is allowed, the optimal weights for JNJ, IBM and BA are 2.2588, -15.0877, and 13.8289 respectively. If short-selling is not allowed, we can obtain the adjusted weights from equation (8.19) as follows: WJNJ WJNJ WJNJ WIBM WBA 2.2588 0.0725 2.2588 15.0877 13.8289 15.0877 WIBM 0.4840 2.2588 15.0877 13.8289 13.8289 WBA 0.4436 2.2588 15.0877 13.8289 WJNJ 14. There are four companies in the portfolio, therefore the matrix to calculate the optimal weights are shown as follows: 2 12 2 13 2 14 2 11 2 2 22 2 23 2 24 21 2 31 2 32 2 33 2 34 2 42 2 43 2 44 2 41 1 1 1 1 E ( R1 ) E ( R2 ) E ( R3 ) E ( R4 ) 1 E ( R1 ) W1 0 1 E ( R2 ) W2 0 1 E ( R3 ) W3 0 1 E ( R4 ) W4 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 E * W A K Where E* =12%, the required rate of return of the portfolio. The information about the mean and variance of rate of returns for four companies are as follows: JNJ IBM BA CAT E(R ) 0.0082 0.0050 0.0113 0.0169 Variance 0.0025 0.0070 0.0082 0.0097 Variance Covariance Matrix JNJ IBM BA CAT JNJ 0.0025 0.0007 0.0007 0.0011 IBM 0.0007 0.0070 0.0006 0.0025 BA 0.0007 0.0006 0.0082 0.0031 CAT 0.0011 0.0025 0.0031 0.0097 Therefore, we can obtain matrix A and K as follows: 0.0050 0.0014 0.0015 0.0021 1.0000 0.0082 0.0014 0.0141 0.0013 0.0049 1.0000 0.0050 0.0015 0.0013 0.0164 0.0063 1.0000 0.0113 0.0021 0.0049 0.0063 0.0194 1.0000 0.0169 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0082 0.0050 0.0113 0.0169 0.0000 0.0000 0 0 0 0 1 12% K By excel function, the inverse of matrix A can be calculated as: 99.9015 -55.8418 -36.9166 -7.1432 0.8552 -24.9153 -55.8418 42.3581 -3.2389 16.7226 0.7365 -66.8810 -36.9166 -3.2389 64.7865 -24.6310 0.1239 2.3676 -7.1432 16.7226 -24.6310 15.0516 -0.7156 89.4287 0.8552 0.7365 0.1239 -0.7156 -0.0148 1.3243 -24.9153 -66.8810 2.3676 89.4287 1.3243 -159.0383 Then, from the matrix calculation of Markowitz Model, we can get the optimal weights from multiplying A1 and K . 2 12 2 13 2 14 W1 2 11 W 2 2 22 2 23 2 24 2 21 W3 2 31 2 32 2 33 2 34 2 42 2 43 2 44 W4 2 41 1 1 1 1 1 2 E ( R1 ) E ( R2 ) E ( R3 ) E ( R4 ) W A1 1 E ( R1 ) 1 E ( R2 ) 1 E ( R3 ) 1 E ( R4 ) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 E * K The optimal weights in W matrix as follows: W1 W2 W3 W4 λ1 λ2 -2.1346 -7.2892 0.4080 10.0159 0.1442 -17.7603 If short-selling is allowed, the optimal weights for JNJ, IBM, BA, and CAT are -2.1346, -7.2892, 0.4080 and 10.0159 respectively. If short-selling is not allowed, we can obtain the adjusted weights from equation (8.19) as follows: WJNJ WJNJ WJNJ WIBM WBA WCAT 2.1346 0.1075 2.1346 7.2892 0.4080 10.0159 7.2892 WIBM 0.3673 2.1346 7.2892 0.4080 10.0159 0.4080 WBA 0.0206 2.1346 7.2892 0.4080 10.0159 10.0159 WCAT 0.5046 2.1346 7.2892 0.4080 10.0159 WJNJ 15. Use the same way and same information in question13 to calculate the optimal weights when E* =0.5% and inverse matrix of A is the same as in question13. 2 12 2 13 W1 2 11 W 2 2 22 2 23 2 21 W3 2 31 2 32 2 33 1 1 1 1 2 E ( R1 ) E ( R2 ) E ( R3 ) A1 W 1 1 1 0 0 E ( R1 ) E ( R2 ) E ( R3 ) 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 E * K Then we can obtain optimal weight matrix W as follows: W1 W2 W3 λ1 λ2 0.6031 0.7003 -0.3035 -0.0209 2.1228 If short-selling is allowed, the optimal weights for JNJ, IBM and BA are 0.6031, 0.7003, and -0.3035 respectively. 16. Use the same way and same information in question14 to calculate the optimal weights when E* =1% and inverse matrix of A is the same as in question14. 2 12 2 13 2 14 W1 2 11 W 2 2 22 2 23 2 24 2 21 W3 2 31 2 32 2 33 2 34 2 42 2 43 2 44 W4 2 41 1 1 1 1 1 2 E ( R1 ) E ( R2 ) E ( R3 ) E ( R4 ) 1 E ( R1 ) 1 E ( R2 ) 1 E ( R3 ) 1 E ( R4 ) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 E * A1 W K Then we can obtain optimal weight matrix W as follows: W1 W2 W3 W4 λ1 0.6061 0.0677 0.1476 0.1787 -0.0015 λ2 -0.2661 Whether short-selling is allowed or not, the optimal weights for JNJ, IBM, BA, and CAT are 0.6061, 0.0677, 0.1476 and 0.1787 respectively.