American Public Attitudes Toward the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict A survey sponsored by the Sadat Chair for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland in cooperation with the Program for Public Consultation presented at The Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution Shibley Telhami, Principal Investigator Steven Kull, Evan Lewis, Clay Ramsay, and Katayoun Kishi provided assistance. Peyton Craighill provided helpful comments. Survey Methodology • Study fielded over November 14-19, 2014 • Sample size is 1008 American adults • Demographic breakdown of sample is compared to U.S. census data • Online survey format • Respondents recruited through scientific selection processes • Margin of error is +/- 3.1% , design effect margin of error is +/- 3.4% Key Issues Q1. Please select the one you think the US should support: Maintain Israeli occupation of territories captured in 1967 14% Annexation without equal citizenship for Palestinians 8% One state solution with equal citizenship for Jews and Arabs 34% Two state solution established with pre-1967 borders 39% 4% Refused 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Q1. Please select the one you think the US should support. Democrat Maintain occupation of both the territories Israel has captured in 1967 and the Palestinians inhabiting them indefinitely. 7% Annexation without equal citizenship: Israel would annex the Palestinian territories, but keep a majority-Jewish state in the expanded territories by… 4% A one-state solution: A single democratic state in which both Jews and Arabs 2. A one-state solution: A single democratic state in which both… 36% A two-state solution: Israel and a Palestinian state side by side. The Palestinian state would be established on the territories that Israel has… 48% 5% Refused Independent Maintain occupation of both the territories Israel has captured in 1967 and the Palestinians inhabiting them indefinitely. 15% Annexation without equal citizenship: Israel would annex the Palestinian territories, but keep a majority-Jewish state in the expanded territories by… 6% A one-state solution: A single democratic state in which both Jews and Arabs 2. A one-state solution: A single democratic state in which both… 42% A two-state solution: Israel and a Palestinian state side by side. The Palestinian state would be established on the territories that Israel has… 32% 4% Refused Republican Maintain occupation of both the territories Israel has captured in 1967 and the Palestinians inhabiting them indefinitely. 21% Annexation without equal citizenship: Israel would annex the Palestinian territories, but keep a majority-Jewish state in the expanded territories by… 15% A one-state solution: A single democratic state in which both Jews and Arabs 2. A one-state solution: A single democratic state in which both… 27% A two-state solution: Israel and a Palestinian state side by side. The Palestinian state would be established on the territories that Israel has… 33% 4% Refused 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Q2. If the approach you selected turns out over time to be impossible, which of the remaining three would you prefer? Maintain Israeli occupation of territories captured in 1967 22% Annexation without equal citizenship for Palestinians 10% One state solution with equal citizenship for Jews and Arabs 66% 2% Refused 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Q2. If the approach you selected turns out over time to be impossible, which of the remaining three would you prefer? Democrat Maintain occupation of both the territories Israel has captured in 1967 and the Palestinians inhabiting them indefinitely. 16% Annexation without equal citizenship: Israel would annex the Palestinian territories, but keep a majority-Jewish state in the expanded territories by… 7% A one-state solution: A single democratic state in which both Jews and Arabs are full and equal citizens, covering all of what is now Israel and the… 75% 2% Refused Independent Maintain occupation of both the territories Israel has captured in 1967 and the Palestinians inhabiting them indefinitely. 18% Annexation without equal citizenship: Israel would annex the Palestinian territories, but keep a majority-Jewish state in the expanded territories by… 9% A one-state solution: A single democratic state in which both Jews and Arabs are full and equal citizens, covering all of what is now Israel and the… 70% 3% Refused Republican Maintain occupation of both the territories Israel has captured in 1967 and the Palestinians inhabiting them indefinitely. 34% Annexation without equal citizenship: Israel would annex the Palestinian territories, but keep a majority-Jewish state in the expanded territories by… 15% A one-state solution: A single democratic state in which both Jews and Arabs are full and equal citizens, covering all of what is now Israel and the… 51% Refused 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Q3. Which of the following statements is closer to your view if a two-state solution is not an option? I favor Israel’s democracy more than its Jewishness 71% I favor the Jewishness of Israel more than its democracy 24% 5% Refused 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Q3. Which of the following statements is closer to your view if a two-state solution is not an option Democrat I favor Israel’s democracy more than its Jewishness. I support a single democratic state in which Arabs and Jews are equal. 84% I favor the Jewishness of Israel more than its democracy. I support the continuation of Israel’s Jewish majority even if it means that Palestinians will not have citizenship and full rights. 12% 4% Refused Independent I favor Israel’s democracy more than its Jewishness. I support a single democratic state in which Arabs and Jews are equal. 68% I favor the Jewishness of Israel more than its democracy. I support the continuation of Israel’s Jewish majority even if it means that Palestinians will not have citizenship and full rights. 25% 8% Refused Republican I favor Israel’s democracy more than its Jewishness. I support a single democratic state in which Arabs and Jews are equal. 60% I favor the Jewishness of Israel more than its democracy. I support the continuation of Israel’s Jewish majority even if it means that Palestinians will not have citizenship and full rights. 37% 3% Refused 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Q4. In general, what role do you want the United States to play in mediating the conflict? 64% Lean toward neither side Lean toward the Palestinians 4% 31% Lean toward Israel 0% Refused 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Q4. In general, what role do you want the United States to play in mediating the conflict? 77% Democrat Lean toward neither side 6% Lean toward the Palestinians 17% Lean toward Israel 0% Refused 73% Independent Lean toward neither side 3% Lean toward the Palestinians 24% Lean toward Israel 46% Republican Lean toward neither side 2% Lean toward the Palestinians 51% Lean toward Israel 1% Refused 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Q5. When you say you want the US to lean toward Israel, which one of the following reasons is closest to your view? I feel it’s my religious or ethnic duty to support Israel 21% I feel that supporting Israel serves the interests of the U.S. 36% I feel Israel and the U.S. have shared values 36% 7% Other Refused 0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Q5. When you say you want the US to lean toward Israel, which one of the following reasons is closest to your view? 10% Democrat I feel it's my religious or ethnic duty to support Israel I feel that supporting Israel serves the interests of the United States 28% 54% I feel Israel and the US have shared values 9% Other 12% Independent I feel it's my religious or ethnic duty to support Israel I feel that supporting Israel serves the interests of the United States 37% 33% I feel Israel and the US have shared values 16% Other 1% Refused 27% Republican I feel it's my religious or ethnic duty to support Israel I feel that supporting Israel serves the interests of the United States 38% 30% I feel Israel and the US have shared values 5% Other 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Q16. If the Palestinians proceed with their plan, what do you think the US should do as a member of the UN Security Council? 45% Abstain from voting Vote against endorsing a Palestinian state; use veto power to prevent 27% Vote in favor of endorsing a Palestinian state 25% 3% Refused 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Q16. If the Palestinians proceed with their plan, what do you think the US should do as a member of the UN Security Council? 46% Democrat Abstain from voting Vote against endorsing the establishment of a Palestinian state (including using America’s veto power to prevent such an … 15% 36% Vote in favor of endorsing the establishment of a Palestinian state 3% Refused 65% Independent Abstain from voting Vote against endorsing the establishment of a Palestinian state (including using America’s veto power to prevent such an … 16% Vote in favor of endorsing the establishment of a Palestinian state 16% 3% Refused 33% Republican Abstain from voting Vote against endorsing the establishment of a Palestinian state (including using America’s veto power to prevent such an … 46% 19% Vote in favor of endorsing the establishment of a Palestinian state 2% Refused 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Q17. The Israeli government has continued to build settlements arguing that they have the right to do so, or that these are not obstacles to peace. How do you believe the US should react to new settlements? 11% Take more serious action Impose some economic sanctions 28% Limit U.S. opposition to words, but no other action 34% 27% Do nothing 2% Refused 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Q17. The Israeli government has continued to build settlements arguing that they have the right to do so, or that these are not obstacles to peace. How do you believe the US should react to new settlements? 13% Democrat Take more serious action 34% 37% Impose some economic sanctions, either through the United… Limit US opposition to words, but take no other action 14% Do nothing 1% Refused 10% Independent Take more serious action 21% Impose some economic sanctions, either through the United… 28% Limit US opposition to words, but take no other action 39% Do nothing 2% Refused 8% Republican Take more serious action 24% Impose some economic sanctions, either through the United… 33% 33% Limit US opposition to words, but take no other action Do nothing 2% Refused 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Q18. Do you think it is all right for Israel to build settlements in these territories, or do you think they should not? 63% Should not build 34% All right to build 4% Refused 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Q18. Do you think it is all right for Israel to build settlements in these territories, or do you think they should not? 75% Democrat Should not build 23% All right to build Refused 2% 62% Independent Should not build 31% All right to build 8% Refused 51% Republican Should not build 46% All right to build Refused 0.00% 3% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% Q20. Of the challenges facing the United States in the Middle East, which of the following do you believe threatens American interests the most? 13% Democrat The violence in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict 9% Iranian behavior in general 6% The instability in Libya 70% The rise of ISIS in Syria and Iraq 3% Refused 14% Independent The violence in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict 13% Iranian behavior in general 3% The instability in Libya 67% The rise of ISIS in Syria and Iraq 3% Refused 11% Republican The violence in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict 15% Iranian behavior in general 1% The instability in Libya 71% The rise of ISIS in Syria and Iraq 1% Refused 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Issue Importance Q6. Thinking about U.S. interests, how important an issue is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? 41% Not among the top 5 issues 37% Among the top 5 issues 16% Among the top 3 issues The single most important issue for the U.S. 5% 1% Refused 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Q6. Thinking about U.S. interests, how important an issue is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? 40% Not among the top five issues 40% Democrat Among the top five issues 14% Among the top three issues 6% The single most important issue for the US 1% Refused 54% Independent Not among the top five issues 30% Among the top five issues 11% Among the top three issues 5% The single most important issue for the US 35% Not among the top five issues 38% Republican Among the top five issues 21% Among the top three issues 5% The single most important issue for the US 1% Refused 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Q9. When you think about your priorities for American foreign policy, how important is maintaining international law? 32% Not among the top 5 issues 39% Among the top 5 issues 18% Among the top three issues 9% At the top of my priorities 1% Refused 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Q9. When you think about your priorities for American foreign policy, how important is maintaining international law? 29% Democrat Not among the top five issues 42% Among the top five issues 20% Among the top three issues for me 9% At the top of my priorities 46% Independent Not among the top five issues 33% Among the top five issues 13% Among the top three issues for me 6% At the top of my priorities 2% Refused 29% Republican Not among the top five issues 40% Among the top five issues 19% Among the top three issues for me 11% At the top of my priorities 2% Refused 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Q9a. When you think about your priorities for American foreign policy, how important is protecting human rights? 16% Not among the top 5 issues 30% Among the top 5 issues 29% Among the top three issues 24% At the top of my priorities 1% Refused 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Q9a. When you think about your priorities for American foreign policy, how important is protecting human rights? 11% Not among the top five issues 24% Democrat Among the top five issues 36% Among the top three issues for me 28% At the top of my priorities 1% Refused 26% Independent Not among the top five issues 32% Among the top five issues 20% Among the top three issues for me 21% At the top of my priorities 1% Refused 17% Republican Not among the top five issues 35% Among the top five issues 27% Among the top three issues for me 22% At the top of my priorities 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Q8. When it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would you say you are: 21% Not concerned about the conflict Mostly concerned about maintaining international law 8% Mostly concerned about protecting human rights 31% Mostly concerned about the Palestinian interests 1% Mostly concerned about consequences for American interests 24% 14% Mostly concerned about Israeli interests 1% Refused 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Q8. When it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would you say 20% I am not concerned about the Palestinian-Israeli conflict 10% Democrat I am mostly concerned about maintaining international law 42% I am mostly concerned about protecting human rights 2% I am mostly concerned about the Palestinian interests 21% I am mostly concerned about the consequences for American interests 5% I am mostly concerned about Israeli interests 1% Refused 30% I am not concerned about the Palestinian-Israeli conflict 10% Independent I am mostly concerned about maintaining international law 28% I am mostly concerned about protecting human rights 1% I am mostly concerned about the Palestinian interests 22% I am mostly concerned about the consequences for American interests 8% I am mostly concerned about Israeli interests 1% Refused 17% I am not concerned about the Palestinian-Israeli conflict 5% Republican I am mostly concerned about maintaining international law 22% I am mostly concerned about protecting human rights 1% I am mostly concerned about the Palestinian interests 29% 26% I am mostly concerned about the consequences for American interests I am mostly concerned about Israeli interests 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Q19. Which of the following statements is closest to your view? Palestinian-Israeli violence will not affect support for ISIS or its strategies 30% Palestinian-Israeli violence is likely to be used by ISIS to draw support from Muslims 64% 6% Refused 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Q19. Which one of the following statements is closest to your view? Democrat Palestinian-Israeli violence will not affect either the support for ISIS or its strategies. Its aims are independent of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and it’s unlikely to draw more supporters because of it. 33% The escalation of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, especially in Jerusalem, is likely to be used by ISIS to draw more support among Muslims worldwide and to focus more attention on confronting Israel and the… 60% 7% Refused Independent Palestinian-Israeli violence will not affect either the support for ISIS or its strategies. Its aims are independent of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and it’s unlikely to draw more supporters because of it. 33% The escalation of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, especially in Jerusalem, is likely to be used by ISIS to draw more support among Muslims worldwide and to focus more attention on confronting Israel and the… 60% 7% Refused Republican Palestinian-Israeli violence will not affect either the support for ISIS or its strategies. Its aims are independent of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and it’s unlikely to draw more supporters because of it. 25% The escalation of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, especially in Jerusalem, is likely to be used by ISIS to draw more support among Muslims worldwide and to focus more attention on confronting Israel and the… 71% 4% Refused 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Issue Importance and Public Attitudes Q4. In general, what role do you want the United States to play in mediating the conflict? Thinking about U.S. interests, how important an issue is the IsraeliPalestinian conflict? Not among the top 5 issues Among the top 5 issues 15% 37% 55% Single most or top 3 issues Refused 81% 4% 33% 60% 39% 6% 67% Q4. In general, what role do you want the United States to play in mediating the conflict? – DEMOCRATS ONLY – Thinking about U.S. interests, how important an issue is the IsraeliPalestinian conflict? Not among the top 5 issues Among the top 5 issues Single most or among top 3 issues Refused 8% 87% 20% 77% 30% 14% 50% 57% 50% Q3. Which of the following statements is closer to your view if a two-state solution is not an option? Thinking about U.S. interests, how important an issue is the IsraeliPalestinian conflict? Not among the top 5 issues 19% 77% Among the top 5 issues 21% 75% Single most or among the top 3 issues Refused 42% 56% 54% 44% Q3. Which of the following statements is closer to your view if a two-state solution is not an option? – DEMOCRATS ONLY – Thinking about U.S. interests, how important an issue is the IsraeliPalestinian conflict? Not among the top 5 issues 9% 87% Among the top 5 issues 8% 89% Single most or among the top 3 issues Refused 29% 50% 66% 50% Q3. Which of the following statements is closer to your view if a two-state solution is not an option? – REPUBLICANS ONLY – Thinking about U.S. interests, how important an issue is the IsraeliPalestinian conflict? Not among the top 5 issues 28% 69% Among the top 5 issues 35% 64% Single most or among the top 3 issues 54% 42% Refused 60% 40% Q16. If the Palestinians proceed with their plan, what do you think the U.S. should do as a member of the UN Security Council? Thinking about U.S. interests, how important an issue is the IsraeliPalestinian conflict? Not among the top 5 issues Among the top 5 issues Single most or among the top 3 issues Refused 25% 29% 20% 22% 16% 56% 30% 40% 44% 32% 78% Q16. If the Palestinians proceed with their plan, what do you think the U.S. should do as a member of the UN Security Council? – DEMOCRATS ONLY – Thinking about U.S. interests, how important an issue is the IsraeliPalestinian conflict? Not among the top 5 issues Among the top 5 issues Single most or among the top 3 issues Refused 34% 39% 35% 57% 7% 19% 24% 100% 40% 33% Q3. Which of the following statements is closer to your view if a two-state solution is not an option? Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian? Yes No 47% 18% 50% 77% Q5. When you say you want the U.S. to lean toward Israel, which one of the following reasons is closest to your view? Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian? No Yes 48% 28% 37% 32% 4% 38% 11% 3% Q5. When you say you want the U.S. to lean toward Israel, which one of the following reasons is closest to your view? Jewish, Jewish American, or Israeli American Other ethnicities 40% 35% 28% 36% 24% 21% Q6. Thinking about US interests, how important an issue is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? When you think about priorities of U.S. foreign policy, how important is protecting human rights? At the top of my priorities Among the top 3 issues Among the top 5 issues Not among the top 5 issues 15% 17% 23% 12% 7% 18% 40% 26% 41% 33% 41% 45% 71% Q17. The Israeli government has continued to build settlements arguing that they have the right to do so, or that these are not obstacles to peace. How do you believe the US should react to new settlements? When you think about priorities of U.S. foreign policy, how important is protecting human rights? At the top of my priorities 18% Among the top 3 issues 20% Among the top 5 issues Not among the top 5 issues 29% 37% 39% 28% 30% 10% 27% 10% 34% 51% 14% 27% 12% 9% Q16. If the Palestinians proceed with their plan, what do you think the US should do as a member of the UN Security Council? When you think about priorities of U.S. foreign policy, how important is protecting human rights? 35% At the top of my priorities Among the top 3 issues Among the top 5 issues Not among the top 5 issues 23% 28% 34% 22% 13% 40% 28% 19% 35% 49% 64%