The Use of Models in
Emergency Management
Presented By:
Armond T. Mascelli
Vice President, Operations
Disaster Services
Mission of the American Red Cross
‘The American Red Cross, a humanitarian
organization led by volunteers and
guided by its Congressional Charter
and the Fundamental Principles of the
International Red Cross Movement, will
provide relief to victims of disasters and
help people prevent, prepare for, and
respond to emergencies.’
International Red Cross Movement
I.
II.
III.
International Committee of the Red Cross
- Geneva Conventions
Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
- Disaster Response
National Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
- 180 Societies
Principles of the
International Red Cross
Movement
Humanity
Impartiality
Neutrality
Independence
Volunteer Service
Unity
Universality
Assistance
No discrimination
Non-partisan
Autonomy
No gain
One Society per Country
Equal Status of all Societies
American Red Cross
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1+ Million Volunteers & 35,000 Paid Staff
Chapters – 707
Divisions – 10
Services to the Armed Forces Units – 100
Blood Regions – 35
Partnerships – Government and Non-Governmental
Organizations
Primary Lines of Service
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Biomedical Services
Service to the Armed Forces
Health & Safety Services
International Services
Disaster Services
Disaster Services
When Disasters Occur
Feeding, sheltering
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Distribution of emergency supplies
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One-on-one casework/assistance
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Health Services
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Mental Health Services
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Family Connectedness
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Blood and blood products
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Recovery and capacity building
All Red Cross Disaster Assistance is Free!
Disaster Services Business Plan Goals
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Goal 1: Deliver service effectively and efficiently
Reduce service delivery costs while enhancing constituent satisfaction.
Goal 2: Make chapters stronger
Align national, state, and local resources to strengthen chapter
programs.
Goal 3: Partner effectively and lead the sector
Expand our role in disaster relief as a principle convener of agencies
and communities nationally and locally.
Goal 4: Make the Red Cross the best place to work or volunteer
Attract and retain the highest caliber of disaster expertise.
Distributing Supplies
Florida Tornadoes
Health Services
New Jersey Floods
Disaster Mental Health
New Jersey Floods
Sheltering
Ohio Floods
Mobile Feeding
Ohio Floods
Family Connectedness
Registration Page
Partnerships
Disasters are Physical, Political
and Emotional Events
Disasters are complex events
that require focused actions
The Term Disaster is a collective
noun covering a range of
very different events
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Emergency
Disaster
Complex Disaster
Catastrophic Event
Disasters are complex, dynamic events
- The limitations of training and exercises
Future repeat disasters are not the recurrence of past events
- New Disaster Agents
- Shifting risk profile (US Coastline)
- Demographics
- Major and catastrophic events
Hurricane Hugo (1989)
Hurricane Andrew (1992)
Hurricane George (1999)
Hurricane Katrina (2004)
Hurricane Rita (2007)
- 1918 Flu vs 2009 Flu Pandemic
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Ongoing linkage between risk
assessment and risk management
- The Roman God Janis
Emergency Management Models
- Prediction Models
- Process Models
The Application of Expert
Systems to Emergency
Management
In Disaster Response there are
a lot of variables and they tend
to vary a lot
Prediction Models
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Agent characteristics and behavior
Scope and magnitude
Onset
Impact/vulnerabilities
Duration
Natural Disasters
Hazardous Materials
Industrial Accidents
Acts of Terrorism
Process Models
I. Simplify complex events
- Critical Elements
- Background noise
II. Better understand how an event will evolve
- Anticipate changing requirements
III. Essential for quantifying disaster events
- Performance
IV. Establish a common base for understanding
V. Useful in explaining future disasters and outcomes
to non-experts
Sequence Process Models
Basic
- Pre-Event
- Disaster
- Post Disaster
Phases of Stages
[Prevention]
Preparedness
[Readiness]
Response
Recovery
Mitigation
Internal Function Process Models
Functions
Initiation/mobilization
Integration
Production
Demobilization
Focus
Capability
Capacity
Decision Points
Manpower, materials, equipment, expertise, timeliness
Models & Emergency Management Tools
I. Hazardous Materials Dispersion
- Plant and Transportation accidents
- Nuclear Power Plant incidents 10 mile EPZ
II. N1H1 Pandemic
Hurricane Evacuation Models
- National Hurricane Center’s 5 movement models
- Area evacuation Models
- Behavior
- Transportation & Clearance
Models & Emergency Management Tools (Con’t)
III. Hazus
- Earthquake
- Hurricane
- Flood
IV. Homeland Security
15 Planning Scenarios
The Future
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New/enhanced Disaster Agents
Larger events
Global urbanization
Reliance on technology
Media
Rising expectations
Just in time economy