Economic Development and
Technology
Center for Agribusiness & Economic
Development (CAED)
We are a center of the University of Georgia College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, combining
the missions of research and Extension by providing feasibility and marketing services; agricultural and
demographic data for private and public decision makers; and conducting analysis related to policy issues in
Georgia agriculture and providing that information to relevant decision makers.
Dr. Kent Wolfe - Center Director specializing in agribusiness development, agritourism,
value added agriculture, and general feasibility analysis
Sharon P. Kane - Economist specializing in food business development, economic impact
analysis, and economic & community development
Dr. John McKissick - Professor Emeritus and Distinguished Agricultural Marketing
Professor specializing in agribusiness economics and policy, agribusiness development,
bioenergy, agricultural product development, rural economic development, agricultural
impact analysis, and feasibility analysis.
Center for Agribusiness & Economic
Development (CAED)
We are a center of the University of Georgia College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences,
combining the missions of research and Extension by providing feasibility and marketing services;
agricultural and demographic data for private and public decision makers; and conducting analysis
related to policy issues in Georgia agriculture and providing that information to relevant decision
makers.
Dr. Tommie Shepherd - Agricultural Economist specializing in agribusiness
development, value added agriculture, rural economic development, and agricultural
cooperatives
Karen Stubbs - Research Professional II, Farm Gate Coordinator
Vanessa P. Shonkwiler - Economist specializing in economic analysis, regional analysis,
and agribusiness marketing.
Center for Agribusiness &
Economic Development
You may already know us through our work…
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Farm Gate Value Report – published annually
Ag Snapshots publication
Ag Forecast Meetings and publications - annual event
Flavor of Georgia Food Product Contest – since 2007
Georgia County Guide – w/Carl Vinson Institute of Gov’t.
County Demographic Profile Presentations/Quiz
Economic Importance of Food & Fiber Presentations
Georgia MarketMaker – CAED awarded USDA/NIFA 2010
Partnership Award for Multi-state Efforts & 2014 Innovation
Award for Farm to Food Bank Pilot Program
 Customized Economic Studies & Feasibility Analysis
Changes in U.S. Agriculture
1. Agricultural production shifting to larger
and more specialized farms.
2. Agricultural Production Shifts
Changes in U.S. Agriculture
3. Farmers are relying more heavily on
contracting to manage their risk.
4. Farmers today use more capital and
chemicals and less labor and land than
they did in 1948.
5. The combined changes in resources,
preferences, and technology have altered
the relative prices of inputs and the
profitability of outputs.
The mix of items that farms
produce has also changed
• Far more acreage is devoted to soybeans
and far less goes to oats and cotton.
• Changing consumer diets have led to large
increases in production of poultry and
fruits and vegetables.
• Changes in the mix of outputs and inputs
affect how the farm sector is organized
and the sources of output growth.
How Has Ag Output Changed
How Livestock Production Has Changed
• U.S. agricultural output has more than doubled
(up 156 percent) since 1948.
• Yet, the growth trends in farm commodities differ,
and the revenue shares of individual commodities
in total farm output have shifted over time.
• From 1948 to 2011, aggregate output grew at an
average annual rate of 1.49 percent, with the crop
sector growing faster than the livestock sector. The
growth of crops accelerated and surpassed the
growth of livestock in the mid-1970s, due partly to
faster growing foreign demand for crop exports
relative to livestock exports
Agricultural Productivity Growth
Source: USDA
Total Factor Productivity (TFP)
• TFP growth is the major source of U.S.
agricultural output growth. Since
aggregate input growth averaged only
0.07 percent per year, the average annual
rate of output growth (1.49 percent) was
almost entirely attributable to TFP growth,
which increased at an average annual rate
of 1.42 percent between 1948 and 2011.
TFP Drivers
• The major driver of long-run TFP
growth—including both embodied and
disembodied technical changes—is
innovation.
• Although agricultural and trade policies
and the regulatory environment can
influence output changes, input uses and,
thus, TFP estimates, they are short-term
factors instead of TFP drivers.
Innovation and Adoption
• Both public and private agricultural research
investments help spur technological innovation.
• Extension activities and public infrastructure help
promote the use of the technology.
• For example, agricultural R&D may lead to new
technologies, but these technologies must be
adopted by farmers before they affect TFP growth.
Therefore, factors that affect the speed of
adoption, such as extension services or
infrastructural development, will also affect TFP
growth.
What the Future Holds
• By 2050 the world’s population will reach 9.1 billion, 34
percent higher than today.
• Nearly all of this population increase will occur in developing
countries.
• Urbanization will continue at an accelerated pace, and about
70 percent of the world’s population will be urban (compared
to 49 percent today).
• Income levels will be many multiples of what they are now.
• In order to feed this larger, more urban and richer population,
food production (net of food used for biofuels) must increase
by 70 percent.
• Annual cereal production will need to rise to about 3 billion
tonnes from 2.1 billion today and annual meat production will
need to rise by over 200 million tonnes to reach 470 million
tonnes.
World Population Growth
Can Production Keep Up with
Population Growth.
Lower Yield Growth Rates
The Green Revolution has also
positive environmental impact.
Technology and Innovation Will Be
Vital to Continued Production
Growth
Future increases in crop production will be
derived from three main sources:
1. expansion of arable land
2. increases in cropping intensity (the
frequency with which crops are
harvested from a given area)
3. improvements in yield.
Hail
Damage
No Hail
Damage
Looking at Wheat Density
Using Led Lights in a
Warehouse
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Nitrogen utilization
Herbicide-tolerance traits
Mini-chromosome technology
Drought-resistance traits
RFID technology
Soil and crop sensors
High-flex tires
Source: Farm Industry News
Another Method to Increase
Production is Better Farming
Practices
Changing World Diets
More Detailed Break Down of
Diets
What is Happening In Research
The Extension Situation
Center for Agribusiness and
Economic Development
Challenge – Think of your future “outside the box”
opportunities based on your assets –
-If we can help Contact:
The Center for Agribusiness
and Economic Development
www.caed.uga.edu
or 706-542-2434
America’s Opportunity
• America has more arable land than any other
country on Earth.
• Approximately 889 million acres, or 40% of
the U.S. land area is devoted to farming, and
the U.S. is by far the biggest exporter of
grain.
• However, that amount is shrinking—3,000
acres are lost to development every day.
Source: Wall Street Journal, To Feed Billions, Farms Are About Data as Much as Dirt
Food for Thought: The Big Picture
The University
of Georgia
College of
Agricultural &
Environmental
Sciences
 Increasing World Population
 Growing Global Food Demand
 Expanding Middle Class in Developing Countries
 High Domestic Commodity Price Levels
Food for Thought: The Big Picture
The University
of Georgia
College of
Agricultural &
Environmental
Sciences
7 Billion Mouths to Feed Worldwide
9 Billion Expected by 2050
Rising Demand in Asia and India
Diets Shifting From Grains to Fruits/Vegetables/Meats
Demand for Grains in Manufacturing Biofuels
Food for Thought: The Big Picture
The University
of Georgia
College of
Agricultural &
Environmental
Sciences
Limited Supply of New Land Suitable for Farming
Urban Competition for Available Water Supplies
Flattening Out of Crop Yield Curve
Prospects for (and Against) GMO’s
How is this impacting the U.S.?
The University
of Georgia
College of
Agricultural &
Environmental
Sciences
Strong Export Activity
Demand For Bio-Fuels
Low Interest Rates
Increasing Farm Income and Land Values
Are we entering a third “Golden Era” of U.S. Farming?