OUR ENERGY FUTURE:
UPDATED
SC 203
January 16, 2008
John Bush
OUR ENERGY FUTURE: A SLATE
REPORT
SC 210
December 12, 2006
The Slate Panel
Carolyn Kimme Smith
Dennis Silverman
Paul Engelder
Stephen Jeckovich
Dorothea Blaine
George Hume
Max Lechtman
Vern Roohk
Ron Williams
John Bush
ENERGY SLATE
A History
• Planned: Spring 2005
• Initiated: Fall 2005
– Global Warming
– Energy Policy
--Peak Oil
--Nuclear Energy
• Concluded : Spring 2006
• Subsequent Events:
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$ 78 per barrel oil/ $3.50 per gal gasoline
Increasing evidence for Global Warming
Intensifying Shiite/Sunni hostilities
California policy on Global Warming
Proposition 87
FRAMING THE SLATE DISCUSSIONS
• Points of view
– 1) Residents of California
– 2) Citizens of the United States
– 3) Inhabitants of the Earth
• Time frames
– 2010
– 2015
– 2025
– “Forever”—2050 and beyond
SUMMARY OF ISSUES
• By using so much fossil fuel are we making the
Earth an unfit place for life?
• Is the world running out of oil?
• Is our nation endangered by our dependence on
imported oil?
• How will global demographic and economic
trends affect our energy future?
• How will energy supply choices affect the
availability of supplies of water and food?
• How might our “American Lifestyle” be affected?
GLOBAL WARMING
• Yes, the use of fossil fuels is profoundly
changing the temperature of our living
spaces.
• What is likely to happen as a result?
– Some change now appears to be inevitable:
adjust lifestyle to accommodate to then
– Some change now appears to be preventable:
adjust lifestyle & use more benign energy
technologies---the sooner the better!
GLOBAL WARMING EFFECTS IN
CALIFORNIA
• Summer temperatures rise by 4-8° F by 2100 for
low emission scenario: 8-15° F for higher
emissions.
• Heat waves will be more common, more intense,
and last longer.
• Spring snowpacks in the Sierra could decline by
70-90%, as winters will be warmer.
• Agriculture, including wine and dairy, could be
affected by water shortages and higher
temperatures.
• More forest fires.
• Tree rings show that in eras of global warming,
megadroughts of decades hit the southwest US.
GLOBAL WARMING UPDATE
• Is Global Warming (climate change)
actually happening?---Yes
• Is it caused by increasing output from the
sun?---No
• Is it caused by increased cosmic ray
activity?—Maybe a contributor
• Is it caused by increasing carbon dioxide
concentration in the atmosphere?—Yes,
largely
Science Jan 11, 2008
GLOBAL WARMING UPDATE
• Is Global Warming (climate change)
actually happening?---Yes
• Is it caused by increasing output from the
sun?---No
• Is it caused by increased cosmic ray
activity?—Maybe a contributor
• Is it caused by increasing carbon
dioxide concentration in the
atmosphere?—Yes, largely
CAUSES OF GLOBAL WARMING
• Why is the carbon dioxide concentration
increasing?
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–
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Human activities-- Yes
Volcanoes– No
Other natural sources– Some
Decreased capacity to absorb carbon dioxide--- Yes
• Are there other gases contributing to
warming?—Yes
– Methane
– Nitrous oxide
– Water vapor
AMERICAN ATTITUDES TO GLOBAL
WARMING
• Is Global Warming actually happening?--Yes
– 60% said take action very soon
– Many well publicized objectors to “Global Warming
hysteria”
• Are Americans well informed?--Some
– An Inconvenient Truth
– Oil company funded campaigns
– White House-directed distortions
• Is there serious scientific dissent about the
reality of Global Warming?--No
CONTRARY VIEWS
• Global Warming isn’t happening, can’t be modified, or is hysterical
hype
– Natural effects overwhelm the effects of human activity– volcanoes,
water vapor, cosmic rays, natural cyclic climate change
– The data base is questionable
– If not Global Cooling then why Global Warming?
– Scientists are hopelessly divided on reality and seriousness of Global
Warming
– “Scientific technological elites” are creating hysteria so that their work
will be funded—a conspiracy
• Global Warming consequences will be minimal or harmless
– Dust and aerosols will counter warming
– The effects are overstated because climate models are unreliable—
”junk science”
– Better to invest to address other human concerns
INFORMING THE PUBLIC?
“CLIMATE CATASTROPHE”
James Hansen NASA
PROJECTED CONSEQUENCES FOR LIFE
FORMS OF GLOBAL WARMING
IPCC: 2007
AND THINGS GET WORSE
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC
GLOBAL WARMING
• Yes, the use of fossil fuels is profoundly
changing the temperature of our living
spaces.
• What is likely to happen as a result?
– Some change now appears to be inevitable:
adjust lifestyle to accommodate to then
– Some change now appears to be preventable:
adjust lifestyle & use more benign energy
technologies---the sooner the better!
PEAK OIL
• Is the world running out of oil?-- Yes
• How near is the peak in global oil production?—
Controversial
• What happens after the peak?—Without replacement
technologies, society as we know it will collapse.
• What can we do to delay/avert social collapse?
– Alter lifestyles to conserve oil
– Develop replacement technologies
• Do we have enough time?—Yes, probably
DO WE HAVE TIME TO ACT?
• Oil production will peak between now and 2070
• From small scale demonstration to widespread
commercialization of energy technologies may
ordinarily take 20 to 50 years
• Fossil energy conversion facilities have an
average productive life of about 30 years
• Conclude we will need to demonstrate the
economic feasibility of technologies in the
next 10 to 20 years to have them widely
available by the time oil production peaks
PEAK OIL UPDATE
• Are we near the peak?—Still controversial
• Can production meet potential demand?
– OECD/IEA December 2007: “The world’s remaining
oil resources are expected to be sufficient to meet
rising demand over the next two-and-a-half decades.”
– NPC US July 2007: Global production is “unlikely to
meet the projected 50-60% growth in demand over
the next 25 years”
– NPC: The real issue is the rate of production not the
magnitude of resources
• What happens if growth in the rate of production
doesn’t keep up with growth in demand??
PRICE OF OIL
• Not necessarily correlated with the price of
gasoline
• Historically, what should oil cost?: $45-60
per bbl in current dollars
• Actually now is about $91 per bbl-- $40
per bbl “Speculative premium” due to a
volatile, tight oil market
• Evidence that economic rationing is
beginning to take effect
AFTER THE PEAK
• Volatile markets—potential for economic
depressions
• Escalating costs for everything; reduced
net incomes
• Economic rationing—change in lifestyles
driven by economics
• Government actions—rationing, subsidies,
wars
HOW URGENT IS THIS?
• NPC consensus among supply forecasters:
“The urgent need for global action was clearly
the most strident issue raised.”
• The post peak consequences will become
critical within 20 years
• Do we have time to completely avert them?—
probably not
• Do we have time to cushion them?—yes if we
act urgently
ALTERNATIVE VIEWPOINTS
• Reserve growth through technology and
discovery will prolong the time available
past 2030
• “Resources, investments, facilities and
production in the immediate future are
sufficient to meet demand.”
UPDATE: DO WE HAVE TIME TO
ACT?
• Oil production will peak between now and 2070
• From small scale demonstration to widespread
commercialization of energy technologies may
ordinarily take 20 to 50 years
• Fossil energy conversion facilities have an
average productive life of about 30 years
• Conclude we will need to demonstrate the
economic feasibility of new technologies in the
next 5 to 10 years to have them sufficiently
available by the time production rates fall short
of demand growth”
THE LAST WORD
“The public, in general, is not very well educated
on the issue of peak oil production and much
less so with respect to its implications. The
precise date of peak oil production is uncertain,
but the implications of reaching peak production
and the subsequent post-peak production
decline are so important and the economic risks
so great that they should be studied and
addressed.”
National Petroleum Council: Facing the Hard Truths
About Energy Summary Discussions on Peak Oil
July 2007
NATIONAL SECURITY
• Is our military security endangered?—No
• Is our economic security endangered?—Yes
– Major increase in competition for energy resources
– Energy supplies sensitive to regional instability
• Are our foreign policy choices constrained?—
Yes
• Can we become independent of imports?
– Theoretically yes but at an unacceptable cost
– Practically not until we deploy economically
acceptable alternatives to oil.
• Energy independence is a myth at least in the
next 10 to 20 years.
NATIONAL SECURITY UPDATE
• It only gets worse
• Economy: See food, water and lifestyle below
• With oil and gas come political power
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We are more dependent on imported oil and gas
Canada is our only reliable supplier
Latin America: Venezuela, Brazil, Ecuador
Middle East: Saudi, Gulf States, Iran
Eurasia: Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan,
Turkmenistan
• US has lost control of oil prices
CONDITIONS FOR SURVIVING
$100 BBL OIL
• Gradual price rise
• Moderate or low inflation
• Supplier nations investing in the US, EU,
and Japan
• All must happen to avoid a major
depression
WAR GAME: “OIL SHOCKWAVE”
NY TIMES NOV. 2, 2007
• 2009: starts with sudden increase to $150 bbl oil
– Severing of pipelines to Azerbaijan
– Military confrontation with Iran—production cut
– Political confrontation with Venezuela—production cut
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Begin to release from Strategic Oil Reserve
US Military deployed to Middle East
Financial markets crash
US President’s options
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Reinstatement of draft
Gasoline rationing
Limit to Sunday driving
Has few options that aren’t political suicide
NATIONAL SECURITY
• Is our military security endangered?—No
• Is our economic security endangered?—Yes
– Major increase in competition for energy resources
– Energy supplies sensitive to regional instability
• Are our foreign policy choices constrained?—
Yes
• Can we become independent of imports?
– Theoretically yes but at an unacceptable cost
– Practically not until we deploy economically
acceptable alternatives to oil.
• Energy independence is a myth at least in the
next 10 to 20 years.
GLOBAL POPULATION/ECONOMIC
GROWTH
• Can an economic model based on US practice
be applied globally?—No
• Is the US model being adopted by relatively poor
countries with large populations?--Yes
• How are the economic aspiration of three
quarters of the worlds people going to be
met?—With only the technical alternatives now
available they won’t be.
• What if suitable alternatives are not deployed?-A
grim future
DEMOGRAPHIC UPDATE
• Increase in light duty vehicles 2005-2030
– China 22 million to >200 million
– India 11 million to 115 million
• Population growth 2005-2025: Ten largest
– India
344 million
– China
130
– Pakistan
67
– Nigeria
79
– Bangladesh
64
– US
57
– Indonesia
49
– Ethiopia
48
– Brazil
42
– Philippines
32
• Population growth rate: Liberia, Burundi, Afghanistan, Niger, Eritrea,
Uganda, Congo-Kinshasa, West Bank & Gaza, Jordan, Benin, Mali
GLOBAL POPULATION/ECONOMIC
GROWTH
• Can an economic model based on US practice
be applied globally?—No
• Is the US model being adopted by relatively poor
countries with large populations?--Yes
• How are the economic aspiration of three
quarters of the worlds people going to be
met?—With only the technical alternatives now
available they won’t be.
• What if suitable alternatives are not deployed?-A
grim future
WATER & FOOD SCARCITY
• Can intensive agriculture as practiced in the US
provide adequate food for the growing global
population?—Not without some new form of
energy technology
• Can agriculture meet both the food and energy
requirements of the growing world population?—
Probably not
• Will there be enough clean, fresh water for the
growing world population?—Not without some
new form of energy technology
WATER UPDATE
• Clean water for human consumption-where does
the energy come from for clean-up?
– Filtration
– Desalination
– Distillation
• Water suitable for agriculture
– Competition between food crops and fuel crops will
force decisions about who gets water and who
doesn’t
– Global Warming will redistribute rainfall, regionally
affecting water availability
FOOD
• World food prices are increasing
• Demand is increasing
– Changes in lifestyles
– Production of biofuels: corn to ethanol; palm oil to diesel
• Supply is decreasing
– Climate change is reducing cereal output
– Reserves have been declining
• Conflict with biofuels production:
– Mexico: price of tortilla staple doubled due to US ethanol
production
– India: will need 5% increase in agricultural water supply to meet
10% of transportation fuel demand by 2030
– California: what crops will we not produce so as to produce
biofuels?
WATER & FOOD SCARCITY
• Can intensive agriculture as practiced in the US
provide adequate food for the growing global
population?—Not without some new form of
energy technology
• Can agriculture meet both the food and energy
requirements of the growing world population?—
Probably not
• Will there be enough clean, fresh water for the
growing world population?—Not without some
new form of energy technology
THE AMERICAN LIFESTYLE
• Can a lifestyle based on intensive use of
inexpensive fossil fuels be sustained?—No
• What may have to change?
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Primacy of individual transport
Dispersed housing, work, and services
Low cost distribution of goods
Adequate, reliable utilities
Environmental qualities
Energy usage habits
STILL IN OUR COMFORT ZONE
AMERICAN LIFESTYLE UPDATE
COPING WITH CHANGE
• A majority in 2007 did not favor requiring
– High mileage cars
– Energy efficient appliances
– Energy efficient buildings
• Costs are enforcing change
– Gasoline –commuting cost have more than doubled; but
gasoline consumption rose 1.5%
– Oil heating – costs have about doubled
– Electricity – thus far moderate increases
• Anecdotal Examples
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Shift to smaller cars/hybrids
Residential solar installations
Decline in frequency of eating out
Less disposable income
PERSUADING CHANGE
• PETA & Humane Society: eat less meat!
• Sierra Club—don’t castigate consumers;
persuade them
• Environmental Defense Fund: get
Congress to act
A CANARY IN THE COAL MINE?
SHUNGNAK ALASKA
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Slow decline due to rising energy costs
People moving away
Old survival skills not revived
Shift in diet away from meat and fish
Wall Street Journal Jan 14, 2008
CALIFORNIA DEVELOPMENT
• Global warming impact in environmental
impact statements
• Home construction costs will steeply
increase
• Some areas will be off limits due to fire
danger or lack of water availability
WHICH CABERNET TO DRINK?
THE AMERICAN LIFESTYLE
• Can a lifestyle based on intensive use of
inexpensive fossil fuels be sustained?—No
• What may have to change?
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Primacy of individual transport
Dispersed housing, work, and services
Low cost distribution of goods
Adequate, reliable utilities
Environmental qualities
Energy usage habits
TECHNOLOGIES
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Fossil Fuels…………………………….John Bush
Biofuels……………..Max Lechtman/Vern Roohk
Nuclear Fission/Fusion……..........George Hume
Solar Thermal/Photovoltaic….Dennis Silverman
Hydroelectric/Geothermal……………John Bush
Wind/Waves/Tides………………..George Hume
Electric System………………………..John Bush
Hydrogen………………….Carolyn Kimme Smith
Transportation………………..Stephen Jeckovich
Conservation………………......Dennis Silverman
ENERGY SOURCES
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Petroleum
Natural gas
Coal
Nuclear
Wind
Solar
Biofuels
Other
ENERGY/POWER TRANSMITTERS
• Pipelines
• Electricity Grid
• Hydrogen
ENERGY USERS
• Conservation of current and application of
new energy sources
• Transportation
• Industry/Commerce
• Home
WHERE ARE THE
BREAKTHROUGHS?
• We’re still looking to the future
• Disappointing
– Batteries
– Ethanol
– Nuclear
• Promising
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Carbon Dioxide Sequestration
Wind
Solar
Bio-recovery of trapped petroleum
Jatropha
HYDROGEN SAFETY
• Small leak more flammable than for gasoline, but more likely
to disperse, so ignition less likely.
• Static spark can ignite, so ground the car during transfer.
• Detonation more likely than with gasoline because of wider
flammable concentration and higher flame speed.
• Need high pressure to transfer efficiently: 5-10k psi.
• Odorless, burns with a blue flame. Small molecule precludes
adding scent molecule.
HYDROGEN CAR PROBLEMS
• Cost high because of fuel cell costs. Fuel cell
provides only 1 V=$36,000. Car =$1 million?
• H under pressure of 5000 PSI. Heat generated
during filling, so less H occupies more space.
• Takes 10 min to fill to 80%,(100 miles)
• Deterioration of tanks, fittings, due to metal
hydrides. Unknown MTBF (Mean time between
failure)
• Unknown H distribution---twenty years away?
SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF
ELECTRICITY
• Electricity is an energy “carrier” (as is hydrogen)
– A good conductor is required for efficient transmission—currently
copper or aluminum wires
– Conductors must be insulated for economy and safety
– Generation characteristics must be matched to transmisson and
application characteristics
• Electricity cannot be stored in large quantities
– Demand and supply must be kept constantly matched
– Storage requires conversion to some other form of energy
• At point of use electricity is clean, convenient, and
versatile since its characteristics can be tailored to the
application on site