Global Monitoring Report 2008
MDGs and the Environment
Agenda for Inclusive and Sustainable Development
1
World on track on poverty reduction and gender
parity at school MDGs, but serious shortfalls likely
on nutrition, education, health, and sanitation goals
d
2
Africa lags on all MDGs, South Asia on most
human development goals. At country level,
most countries are off track to meet most MDGs
3
Progress toward MDGs slowest in fragile states—
even negative on some MDGs
4
Agenda ahead
• Assessment at midpoint shows urgent need to generate
stronger, more inclusive momentum toward the MDGs
• With stronger efforts by countries and by development
partners, most MDGs still achievable for most countries
• As MDG 7 underscores, development and environmental
sustainability are integrally linked
• In this Year of Action for MDGs, need to agree on priority
actions and milestones for monitoring progress
• Report emphasizes a six-point agenda for inclusive and
sustainable development
5
MDGs and the environment: A six-point agenda
for inclusive and sustainable development
• Sustain and broaden the growth momentum
• Achieve better results in human development
• Integrate development and environmental
sustainability
• Scale up aid and increase its effectiveness
• Harness trade for strong, inclusive, and sustainable
growth
• Leverage IFI support for inclusive and sustainable
development
6
Increased risks from financial turbulence—
developing-country growth slowing but still robust
annual % change
8
6
4
2
0
World output
2007
Advanced
economies
2008 (Projected)
Emerging market
and developing
countries
Africa
2009 (Projected)
7
Private capital flows expected to ease but
remain relatively abundant
Net private capital flows to developing countries
$ billions
Percent
$1 trillion in 2007
1000
8
800
6
Percent of GDP
(right axis)
600
4
400
2
200
0
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008P
8
Sharp rises in energy and food prices add to risks
Commodity Price Index (1990=100)
500
400
300
200
100
0
1990
1992
1994
grains
1996
1998
raw materials
2000
2002
metals
2004
2006
2008
energy
9
Growth in Africa has improved, but varies widely
across countries
10
Growth needs to be more inclusive—
both across and within countries
Annual change in Gini coefficient in 59 developing countries
11
More but better spending on education and health
Public spending on education and health typically favors the rich
12
Stronger focus needed on combating
malnutrition—higher food prices increase urgency
Incidence of stunting remains high in low-income countries
13
Environmental health risks—a significant concern
Economic burden of poor environmental health can be high—
1.5-4% of GDP annually
14
Deforestation causes loss of forest equivalent in
size to Panama or Sierra Leone every year
Annual deforestation by region and income group, 2000-05
15
Developing countries are most vulnerable to climate
change and least able to adapt
Impact of climate change on agricultural yields, 2079-99
16
Mitigation calls for common but differentiated
responsibilities
Per capita GHG emissions (including from land use change), 2000
17
Global Environmental SustainabilityOne Size Does Not Fit All
High income countries
Provide global public goods
– e.g. Kyoto and beyond
High deforestation
countries (e.g.
Brazil) – Eliminate
perverse
incentives, improve
governance
Biodiversity rich
countries (e.g.
Peru) – Conserve
natural areas, tap
global finance for
conservation,
develop
ecotourism
High child mortality
countries (e.g. Mali)
Provide water and
sanitation, improve
access to electricity
Countries in transition (e.g.
Ukraine) Increase energy
efficiency and control pollution
Rapidly growing
countries (e.g. China,
India) Reduce carbon
intensity of growth
AgricultureIncreasing water
dependent
scarcity (e.g. MNA)
countries (e.g.
Increase water use
Ethiopia)
efficiency, define
Manage land and
water use rights
water resources,
diversify assets
Sub-soil resource rich
countries (e.g. Mozambique)
Invest resource rents, improve
governance
Rapidly
urbanizing
countries (e.g.
Vietnam)
Manage
pollution from
transport and
industry
18
Countries’ absorptive capacity rising, but aid falling
DAC members’ net ODA flows
2005 US$ (billions)
ODA as % of GNI
150
0.4
0.35
120
0.3
0.25
90
0.2
60
0.15
0.1
30
0.05
0
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
ODA as a % of GNI
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Total net ODA
19
Time to deliver on aid commitments is now
Most of the promised increase in aid has not yet materialized
2004 US$ billions
150
Total Net ODA
Net ODA to SSA
120
90
60
30
0
All DAC donors
G7 donors
2004
2007
All DAC donors
G7 donors
2010 target*
*Based on commitments made at Gleneagles and other donor commitments in 2005
20
Doha remains crucial
Support to agriculture has not been declining
Gross subsidy equivalents of assistance to farmers, 1960-2004
21
Increase aid for trade—to promote inclusiveness
in exploitation of trade opportunities
Aid for trade, average 2002-06
22
Trade policy should facilitate transfer of
environmentally friendly technologies
Environmental goods currently confront significant trade restrictiveness
Trade Restrictiveness Index (%)
23
MDBs had record disbursements in 2007
Even as their relative financing role declines, international
financial institutions’ impact through leverage remains key
MDBs’ gross disbursements by type of flow and region, 2000-07
24
Issues for consideration at the meeting
• What are the key elements of the agenda to achieve stronger
and more inclusive growth, especially in Africa?
• What challenges arise for developing countries from recent
economic developments―financial market turmoil, global
growth slowdown, and rise in energy and food prices―and
how they may be addressed?
• What actions are needed to scale up aid and ensure its
effectiveness in a changing aid architecture and to leverage
more private capital?
• What measures are needed to enable countries to harness
trade for strong, inclusive, and sustainable growth?
• How can financing and technology transfer to developing
countries be facilitated to help them achieve climate-resilient
and low-carbon growth?
25